2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating

[chuckm]

I agree. Looking at the Base Value of the US Ladies, there's Alysa, a clean Bradie, and that's it. None of the other ladies has more than 1 3/3 and other than Alysa, I believe that Amber is the only lady to land one competition. Amber will be at the NHK Trophy and she can make a huge statement if she does well there.

And therein lies the rub: Amber has to be well aware that she needs to do well at NHK, since that is her last competition before Nationals. That can only add to the stress for her, and she is already a nervy skater.

She already placed behind Sakamoto, You, Trusova and Usacheva at SA; Sakamoto in 4th place outscored 6th place Amber by almost 15 points. Added at NHK: Kihira and Liu. Liu had a rough skate at SC, but she still scored 5 points higher than Amber scored at SA. Kihira has scored over 230 points; she may be injured, but she is still a formidable competitor.

 

[ucrgirl]

There is a great chance for United States to win silver Team Event at Olympics this time. Besides Alysa, we need another "consistent" skater who can rotate triple triple in later half for the team event. I think Lindsay is the best choice if Bradie cannot return to her previous competitive form. Personally, I think it's too risky for Amber, Mariah or Karen to do any team event. International senior experience doesn't matter IMO.

One additional reason to have Alyssa do both programs, is it will allow the dance teams to split the Ice Dance portions of the competition. We have two top teams and I would like them both to have a medal in the team portion.

 

[Dawn825]

Exactly.....The silence from her team has been, as they say, Deafening. We're not getting updates of her progress and that worries me.

Bradie posted on Instagram after she withdrew from SkAm saying that she was optimistic and making progress, so hopefully thats true.
I dont need to hear anything else from her coach. He posted on Instagram shortly before SkAm a clip of her doing triple-triples as if to say "look, she's fine, no injury here!", then she withdrew. It's likely the clip was old and he was trying to fool her fans, who dont need that.

 

[mrrice]

Bradie posted on Instagram after she withdrew from SkAm saying that she was optimistic and making progress, so hopefully thats true.
I dont need to hear anything else from her coach. He posted on Instagram shortly before SkAm a clip of her doing triple-triples as if to say "look, she's fine, no injury here!", then she withdrew. It's likely the clip was old and he was trying to fool her fans, who dont need that.

I'm still worried. Even if she's jumping at this point, she clearly doesn't have her programs ready. If she were remotely healthy, she could be running them without jumps, just to get the feel for when she's ready to add the jumps in.

 

[dancelion21]

Where the Top Contenders for the Olympic Spots are Now

Group 1: (Consistent Top 3)
Nobody

Group 2: (Consistent Top 5 or Top 3 Once)
Alysa Liu: Consistent and strong competitor, but struggling with rotating triple-triples in the second half of her programs. May add more ultra-C elements.
SB: 219.24 (Lombardia)
Median Score: 207.40

Group 3: (Consistent Top 10 or Top 5 Once)
Karen Chen: Inconsistent, but lovely spins and gets the highest PCS marks of all the US ladies. Also the reason why the US has three spots.
SB: 208.63 (2021 Worlds)
Median Score: 192.95

Group 4: (Consistent Top 15 or Top 10 Once)
Amber Glenn: Inconsistent, may add an ultra-C
SB: 201.02 (Skate America)
Median Score: 192.24

Bradie Tennell: Currently injured, unknown when she'll compete again
SB: 197.81 (2021 Worlds)
Median Score: N/A

Lindsay Thorngren: Promising junior, exciting to see how she will be scored at a senior event. Consistent competitor.
SB: 193.77 (JPG Slovakia)
Median Score: 189.61

Yet to Compete
Mariah Bell: Yet to compete at major international events this season. She changed her programs after Champs Camp, and her triple-triples have been looking less solid.

 

[Moxiejan]

And therein lies the rub: Amber has to be well aware that she needs to do well at NHK, since that is her last competition before Nationals. That can only add to the stress for her, and she is already a nervy skater.

With NHK next week, the timing would be OK for Amber to do Zagreb in December — especially if Bradie is still injured & isn’t assigned to it.

The timing wouldn’t work for Lindsay (JGPF) and probably not Mariah (only 2 weeks after Moscow GP).
I suppose it would be a possibility for Alysa (if she doesn’t make the GPF) or Karen.

 

[dancelion21]

With NHK next week, the timing would be OK for Amber to do Zagreb in December — especially if Bradie is still injured & isn’t assigned to it.

The timing wouldn’t work for Lindsay (JGPF) and probably not Mariah (only 2 weeks after Moscow GP).
I suppose it would be a possibility for Alysa (if she doesn’t make the GPF) or Karen.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Mariah said in an interview that she was planning to do Golden Spin in Zagreb?

 

[Skater Boy]

Re: Gracie Gold, I know someone mentioned a few pages back that she came 3rd in the short at the competition she did last week (the one that Isabeau withdrew from last minute), but she had a fall in the long and checked out for the rest of the program, and came 5th, finishing 4th overall. Well, apparently when she finished, she came off the ice and left immediately. She did not sit in the K&C to get her scores. Behavior like that does her no favors. For the person a few posts up who said it was good to see her in the conversation for the US team still, to clarify, there's no way Gracie is making the Olympic Team - the question of the moment is whether or not she'll make Nationals as the last spot. I'm thinking it won't happen.

I previously said Bradie is the only US woman who has the political capital to spend on missing all the fall competitions without it hurting her reputation, AS LONG AS she skates in top form at Nationals. I still believe that, but it's certainly looking like a taller and taller order to fill. But if anyone can do it, Bradie can.

However, if you believe Bradie is unlikely to be in top form by January....I've got to say, I think that gives Amber's chances of making the team quite a bump. And I'm a HUGE Amber fan. I would love to see her go.

Oh I was just wondering. I was wondering if she was going to make Nats - didn''t know things were that rough for her. I hope she still enjoys skating.

One additional reason to have Alyssa do both programs, is it will allow the dance teams to split the Ice Dance portions of the competition. We have two top teams and I would like them both to have a medal in the team portion.

I think Liu will skate both come olys. If the US wants gold they should get Nathan and LIu to skate both. If they want to split dance fine. Pairs is probably fine too.

 

[frida80]

Oh I was just wondering. I was wondering if she was going to make Nats - didn''t know things were that rough for her. I hope she still enjoys skating.

I think Liu will skate both come olys. If the US wants gold they should get Nathan and LIu to skate both. If they want to split dance fine. Pairs is probably fine too.

Gold is a long shot. Both the pairs and dance have to beat everyone but the Russians and they have to hope that russian men lose to Canadian, japanese, and one or two other nations. Vincent is doing well and will likely win the FS. Alyss has to fix her carrots if she’s going to be competitive with the Japanese women.

 

[katymay]

Re: Gracie Gold, I know someone mentioned a few pages back that she came 3rd in the short at the competition she did last week (the one that Isabeau withdrew from last minute), but she had a fall in the long and checked out for the rest of the program, and came 5th, finishing 4th overall. Well, apparently when she finished, she came off the ice and left immediately. She did not sit in the K&C to get her scores. Behavior like that does her no favors. For the person a few posts up who said it was good to see her in the conversation for the US team still, to clarify, there's no way Gracie is making the Olympic Team - the question of the moment is whether or not she'll make Nationals as the last spot. I'm thinking it won't happen.

I previously said Bradie is the only US woman who has the political capital to spend on missing all the fall competitions without it hurting her reputation, AS LONG AS she skates in top form at Nationals. I still believe that, but it's certainly looking like a taller and taller order to fill. But if anyone can do it, Bradie can.

However, if you believe Bradie is unlikely to be in top form by January....I've got to say, I think that gives Amber's chances of making the team quite a bump. And I'm a HUGE Amber fan. I would love to see her go.

I got the impression that a few of the ladies didn't know they were supposed to go sit in that seat. Gracie wasn't the only one who didn't go sit in the make shift kiss and cry area. Just a thought.

Amber needs to up her base value, just another combo in the second half would help. I would like to see a combination of either Amber, Mariah or Lindsay get the open two spots. It isn't worlds, where placement matters. I believe Alysa will be top 10, and where the other two end up really doesn't matter, and between the remainder of the women, they are all at about the same level. A perfect Amber would be a clear number 2 after Alysa, her PCS is (in my opinion) in the same league as Karen, Bradie and Mariah. Amber is exciting and powerful, but I'm not sure why her BV is so low, when she is such a great jumper.

 

[Moxiejan]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Mariah said in an interview that she was planning to do Golden Spin in Zagreb?

Didn’t see that, but maybe she’s planning to stay in Europe for both GPs and then Zagreb.

 

[MCsAngel2]

Ok.....I've looked all over this thread but can't find out what exactly Bradie's injury is. I know her blade broke in a practice at Worlds and just keep seeing the words "healthy"and "injured" but nothing more specific than that. One person says she was injured in June and another says it happened in August. Is it a stress fracture, deep bruise, tendon issue, a boot issue? I'm just overly curious at this point and think that the silence/lack of specific information, sounds extremely ominous!

She didn't break a blade, her right boot broke (broke down, as in, couldn't support her after landing jumps), in the first or second practice at Worlds.

All we know is it's a foot injury. I specifically saw it stated she was injured in June - the person who mentioned August probably did so because that was the first competition she was supposed to go to, but withdrew. She did go to Champs Camp which was the next week (which isn't a competition and is not open to the public) but we know from people who were there that she was in rough shape. Sounds like it's her landing foot. Bad luck with the timing.

 

[TontoK]

I got the impression that a few of the ladies didn't know they were supposed to go sit in that seat. Gracie wasn't the only one who didn't go sit in the make shift kiss and cry area. Just a thought.

I appreciate your predisposition to kindness, but let's be honest. It was a flounce.

 

[MCsAngel2]

I've never heard of a skater not staying to get their own marks.

 

[beepboop]

I'm still worried. Even if she's jumping at this point, she clearly doesn't have her programs ready. If she were remotely healthy, she could be running them without jumps, just to get the feel for when she's ready to add the jumps in.

I'm worried about Bradie too. If she goes to Warsaw Cup, which is in only 2 weeks, she probably won't be in great shape. I'm nervous that she'll lose to Lindsay—an outcome that seems pretty probable at this point. If that happens, I don't see her going to the Olympics unless she's 1st at Nationals, which is looking less and less possible for her

 

[dancelion21]

Gold is a long shot. Both the pairs and dance have to beat everyone but the Russians and they have to hope that russian men lose to Canadian, japanese, and one or two other nations. Vincent is doing well and will likely win the FS. Alyss has to fix her carrots if she’s going to be competitive with the Japanese women.

Gold is likely not happening unless the Russian man really bombs in the short program (which they are prone to occasionally do). Only if the Russian man bombs would it be possible to make up points the points that are sure to be lost in pairs, dance, and ladies. And even then, those competitors would have to keep the losses minimal. I trust that either H/D or C/B can outscore G/P and the rest of their competition, but that's far from a sure thing in pairs, where the American pairs are in a dead heat with the Canadian pairs, Japanese pair, and even the Italian pair team. All the stars would have to align for the US to have a chance at gold, but they should be able to get a pretty solid silver.

 

[Amei]

Amber needs to up her base value, just another combo in the second half would help. I would like to see a combination of either Amber, Mariah or Lindsay get the open two spots. It isn't worlds, where placement matters. I believe Alysa will be top 10, and where the other two end up really doesn't matter, and between the remainder of the women, they are all at about the same level. A perfect Amber would be a clear number 2 after Alysa, her PCS is (in my opinion) in the same league as Karen, Bradie and Mariah. Amber is exciting and powerful, but I'm not sure why her BV is so low, when she is such a great jumper.

She has struggled to do her existing layout clean consistently, so I don't know if making it more difficult is the way to go, at this point from what we've seen and heard outside of Alysa the US ladies getting discussed as contenders for the Olympic team are a mess, maybe going relatively clean with this easier layout is the way she gets to the Olympics

 

[readernick]

She has struggled to do her existing layout clean consistently

Yes, but I don't think it is because the layout is difficult for her. She does it cleanly in almost all run throughs and she doesn't look tired after her programs so she doesn't have stamina issues. It is because she is a nervous competitor. I don't know why adding a 3S in the LP would make her more nervous. Opening with a 3A might increase her nerves or it might not... we will have to see.

What I don't support is adding a 3A to her SP. It is obvious that she is too nervous in the SP to do any jump that isn't ridiculously easy for her.

 

[Sjs5572]

Gold is likely not happening unless the Russian man really bombs in the short program (which they are prone to occasionally do). Only if the Russian man bombs would it be possible to make up points the points that are sure to be lost in pairs, dance, and ladies. And even then, those competitors would have to keep the losses minimal. I trust that either H/D or C/B can outscore G/P and the rest of their competition, but that's far from a sure thing in pairs, where the American pairs are in a dead heat with the Canadian pairs, Japanese pair, and even the Italian pair team. All the stars would have to align for the US to have a chance at gold, but they should be able to get a pretty solid silver.

I would not be so sure that points will be lost in dance. S/K have been out due to Katsapalov back problem. Both US teams can beat the other Russian teams.

 

[readernick]

I would not be so sure that points will be lost in dance. K/S have been out due to Katsapalov back problem. Both US teams can beat the other Russian teams.

Yes, but that's assuming that the judges actually judge what is put on the ice and not reputation/ fed support. K/S get scores that are very hard to comprehend at times given how messy he is.... I'm not saying it is impossible for the US teams to beat them but it won't be easy...