2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating | Page 162 | Golden Skate

2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating

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mrrice said:
I just found this video of Mariah's SP from Cranberry and I have to say that I really like it. She lands a nice 3flip/3Toe which was great to see. Things are really heating up for the Ladies.....
www.youtube.com

Mariah Bell 2021 Cranberry Cup International Short Program

www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
Click to expand...
Mariah's SP at Cranberry wasn't bad jump-wise (the music is awful though, which is why she changed it after Champs Camp), but her free program was very messy and did not score well. Regardless, that was almost three months ago at this point, so it's difficult to say what type of competition shape she's in now. The most recent jumping we've seen from her was her new short program she did at a US Championship Series last month, where her jumps were clean, but she only did a 3-2 combination. She withdrew from the free program, she clearly just wanted to get her new short program some competition mileage since she went back to Hallelujah for the free.
 
dancelion21 said:
Mariah's SP at Cranberry wasn't bad jump-wise (the music is awful though, which is why she changed it after Champs Camp), but her free program was very messy and did not score well. Regardless, that was almost three months ago at this point, so it's difficult to say what type of competition shape she's in now. The most recent jumping we've seen from her was her new short program she did at a US Championship Series last month, where her jumps were clean, but she only did a 3-2 combination. She withdrew from the free program, she clearly just wanted to get her new short program some competition mileage since she went back to Hallelujah for the free.
Click to expand...
I agree. So, does she have new music for her SP? If she can deliver technically like she did in the video I saw, she'll be good to go. Still no match for Lindsay though.
 
dancelion21 said:
Internationally, I feel as though Karen now will score slightly better than Mariah. It's been a while since Mariah competed internationally, but Karen's always be the darling of international judges for her big jumps and effortless spins. Domestically, US judges have always loved Mariah, also why she was pushed so heavily at the start of last season. We'll know pretty soon at IdF next week once Mariah and Karen compete against each other.
Click to expand...

I looked at PCS domestically because that's all we have data on for the last year (at least until Mariah competes at her first GP) and because when I looked at their competition history internationally they haven't at the same competition since the 2016-2017 season (before the last Olympics) thus we'd be looking at different judging panels...

In spite of saying that I went ahead and pulled the 2019-2020 season which was the last full international season we have for both of them, I pulled both of their GP events and their Challenger event, Karen also did an event in Philadelphia that was a domestic event. Below is the PCS for both the SP and the FS in each event.

Mariah:
  • Nebelhorn: SP: 31.64; FS: 66.48
  • IDF: SP: 32.55; FS: 69.25
  • Rostelecom: SP: 33.36; FS: 69.76
Karen:
  • Autumn Classic: SP: 30.48; FS: 60.32
  • Skate America: SP: 31.06; FS: 58.01
  • NHK: SP: 31.77; FS: 61.13
 
Amei said:
I looked at PCS domestically because that's all we have data on for the last year (at least until Mariah competes at her first GP) and because when I looked at their competition history internationally they haven't at the same competition since the 2016-2017 season (before the last Olympics) thus we'd be looking at different judging panels...

In spite of saying that I went ahead and pulled the 2019-2020 season which was the last full international season we have for both of them, I pulled both of their GP events and their Challenger event, Karen also did an event in Philadelphia that was a domestic event. Below is the PCS for both the SP and the FS in each event.

Mariah:
  • Nebelhorn: SP: 31.64; FS: 66.48
  • IDF: SP: 32.55; FS: 69.25
  • Rostelecom: SP: 33.36; FS: 69.76
Karen:
  • Autumn Classic: SP: 30.48; FS: 60.32
  • Skate America: SP: 31.06; FS: 58.01
  • NHK: SP: 31.77; FS: 61.13
Click to expand...
The 2019-20 season was Mariah's peak while Karen was at her worst, just coming back from injury, so I'm not surprised that Mariah's PCS is significantly higher than Karen's in 19-20. While now, the momentum has shifted. Mariah was seen as the de-facto top US lady early in the 2020-21 season, since she had such a strong showing at Nationals and Alysa was working through her growth spurt. Mariah's momentum came crashing down at 2021 US Nationals, while Karen built strong momentum throughout the season with strong showings at Nationals and Worlds (essentially where it counted).

This was Karen's PCS at her cleanest skates
  • Worlds 2021 SP: 33.52
  • Worlds 2021 FS: 67.89
  • Skate Canada 2021 SP: 34.41
  • Finlandia 2021 SP: 34.63
  • Finlandia 2021 FS: 69.62
Just looking at this, Karen at her cleanest in the short program scores higher than Mariah at her cleanest while the two are about equal in PCS for their clean free skates. At this point, I don't know if I have more trust in Mariah to skate clean or for Karen to skate clean. Karen is prone to underrotations on all her jumps, not just the triple-triples, while Mariah is generally able to rotate her solo triples, but struggles on the combinations. However, Mariah's downward trajectory has been really concerning over the past year. Maybe it'll be easier this season since she's coming in as an underdog, compared to last season, where she was the favorite.
 
When discussing Alysa's medalling prospects in Japan, it is important to look at the season and how scores have progressed. Although Alysa's chances are slim, it is definitely doable. However, one of the main concerns I have is the downward trend of Alysa's total score whereas their rivals' scores have been on an upward trend.

Alysa L.
- CS Lombardia Trophy: 74.31 + 144.93 = 219.24
- CS Nebelhorn Trophy: 70.86 + 136.54 = 207.40
- Skate Canada International: 73.63 + 132.90 = 206.53

Avg. Total Score: 211.05

Now, let's take a look at the other front-runners:

Daria U.
- 76.71 + 140.60 = 217.31

Young Y.
- 70.73 + 146.24 = 216.97
- 60.66 + 119.59 = 180.25

Avg. Total Score: 198.61

Kaori S.
- 71.16 + 144.77 = 215.93
- 76.60 + 125.58 = 202.28

Avg. Total Score: 209.10

Compared to their rivals, Alysa remains the most consistent and level-headed competitor. However, unlike Kaori or Daria, Alysa is prone to under-rotating and if the technical panel is strict, Alysa's score will definitely be detrimentally affected. On the other hand, Kaori and Young are not the most consistent skaters and if they have an off day, Alysa can definitely best them. Daria remains Alysa's biggest threat as even on an off day, she scores north of 140.

Other dark horses include Mana, Rino, and Seo-yeong. Although Mana can be inconsistent, Rino and Seo-yeong are natural competitors who can rival Alysa's consistency and neither of them suffer from under-rotation calls (although Seo-yeong's edges might get called). Finally, Amber should not be counted out either; although she has been inconsistent, with Karen's less than spectacular showing at Skate Canada, Amber has a great opportunity to improve and show that she is a leading contender.
 
but ice is a slippery surface. After SkAm with Nathan, I really don’t want to guess who is lock and who is not. At the end of the day, it is the skater who knows what he or she (or they) have to do the jobs, we guessing here — wouldn’t that just add pressure to them and make us all nervous (by agreeing or disagreeing or reading things we don’t like)?

Do I have favorite to win for NHK sure, but I’m not going to share or participate the fantasy thing in GS because I just want them to see their best and that’s all us fans can ask for.skaters are human too, and they do come here to read these comments, I don’t want my comment to affect them (I can only control what I can type but not others).

Like reading Karen’s IG post after SCI is super depressing, here is someone who works hours every week (almost like a full time job) since 6(?) and she read people’s comments as being inconsistent. Just because we assume athletes have strong will and try not to read things online — they can’t escape them or stop their curiosity. They aren’t going to publicly cry to tell Us how these comments upset her (or her family). They tried their best. And sometimes their best isn’t in top 5 - such is life.

At the end of the day, I just want them to be healthy (see Hanyu and Trusova), skate their very best in that moment and trust the process. If they didn’t get to their dream, at least they can lift their head high and said they did the best they can at that very moment…the way Federer and Nadal and many others in tennis are.
 
dancelion21 said:
This seems unlikely based on the criteria that USFS has put forth. In the US Championships criteria, it just says "Athletes/teams who placed in the top 3 at the 2022 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating Championships" for group 3. Since there's never an asterisk that stipulates it must be out of senior-eligible competitors, I don't think that Bradie can be in group 3 so long as she's among the top 3 senior-eligible competitors, if she's not also in the top 3 overall.

Furthermore, since body of work will be the differentiating factor among skaters in the groups, Bradie really needs a strong showing at Nationals. She won't have a body of work while the other US ladies will, so she needs to blow them out of the water with her performance at US Nationals. It's really looking quite bleak for her, I'll be honest. :(
Click to expand...
So does this mean Gracie could win US Nats and probably wouldn't make it to olympics.
 
loopy1217 said:
but ice is a slippery surface. After SkAm with Nathan, I really don’t want to guess who is lock and who is not. At the end of the day, it is the skater who knows what he or she (or they) have to do the jobs, we guessing here — wouldn’t that just add pressure to them and make us all nervous (by agreeing or disagreeing or reading things we don’t like)?

Do I have favorite to win for NHK sure, but I’m not going to share or participate the fantasy thing in GS because I just want them to see their best and that’s all us fans can ask for.skaters are human too, and they do come here to read these comments, I don’t want my comment to affect them (I can only control what I can type but not others).

Like reading Karen’s IG post after SCI is super depressing, here is someone who works hours every week (almost like a full time job) since 6(?) and she read people’s comments as being inconsistent. Just because we assume athletes have strong will and try not to read things online — they can’t escape them or stop their curiosity. They aren’t going to publicly cry to tell Us how these comments upset her (or her family). They tried their best. And sometimes their best isn’t in top 5 - such is life.

At the end of the day, I just want them to be healthy (see Hanyu and Trusova), skate their very best in that moment and trust the process. If they didn’t get to their dream, at least they can lift their head high and said they did the best they can at that very moment…the way Federer and Nadal and many others in tennis are.
Click to expand...
Maybe Karen could use the comments to help fuel her to better results? She’s the complete package, so I think fans expressing her inconsistency is out of annoyance that she doesn’t place higher or at the very least skate better.

To your point, working at something 6 hours a day would make me want to put out my very best each time. I would hope she could use it to fire up that passion each time. Still, you’re right that she’s human and it must be hard to read. I think she could use it to fuel her fire to never let herself skate less than her best. That’s how champions are made.
 
Skater Boy said:
So does this mean Gracie could win US Nats and probably wouldn't make it to olympics.
Click to expand...
I doubt that any federation wouldn't send her champion to the olympics (no matter what rules) .... and if was Grace .. imagine the publicity and the new popularity that could raise for figure skating ... a fenix from ashes
 
loopy1217 said:
but ice is a slippery surface. After SkAm with Nathan, I really don’t want to guess who is lock and who is not. At the end of the day, it is the skater who knows what he or she (or they) have to do the jobs, we guessing here — wouldn’t that just add pressure to them and make us all nervous (by agreeing or disagreeing or reading things we don’t like)?

Do I have favorite to win for NHK sure, but I’m not going to share or participate the fantasy thing in GS because I just want them to see their best and that’s all us fans can ask for.skaters are human too, and they do come here to read these comments, I don’t want my comment to affect them (I can only control what I can type but not others).

Like reading Karen’s IG post after SCI is super depressing, here is someone who works hours every week (almost like a full time job) since 6(?) and she read people’s comments as being inconsistent. Just because we assume athletes have strong will and try not to read things online — they can’t escape them or stop their curiosity. They aren’t going to publicly cry to tell Us how these comments upset her (or her family). They tried their best. And sometimes their best isn’t in top 5 - such is life.

At the end of the day, I just want them to be healthy (see Hanyu and Trusova), skate their very best in that moment and trust the process. If they didn’t get to their dream, at least they can lift their head high and said they did the best they can at that very moment…the way Federer and Nadal and many others in tennis are.
Click to expand...
The weird thing is I was just transferring some old video tapes to digital (so I could throw the VHS tapes out), It was US Nats 2015- and Karen Chen-OMG she was spectacular . I really had forgotten how wonderful she was that year. Just an exciting, speedy skater with nice confident jumps and of course the beautiful spins. She really was one of the all time greats.
 
natsulian said:
When discussing Alysa's medalling prospects in Japan, it is important to look at the season and how scores have progressed. Although Alysa's chances are slim, it is definitely doable. However, one of the main concerns I have is the downward trend of Alysa's total score whereas their rivals' scores have been on an upward trend.

Alysa L.
- CS Lombardia Trophy: 74.31 + 144.93 = 219.24
- CS Nebelhorn Trophy: 70.86 + 136.54 = 207.40
- Skate Canada International: 73.63 + 132.90 = 206.53

Avg. Total Score: 211.05

Now, let's take a look at the other front-runners:

Daria U.
- 76.71 + 140.60 = 217.31

Young Y.
- 70.73 + 146.24 = 216.97
- 60.66 + 119.59 = 180.25

Avg. Total Score: 198.61

Kaori S.
- 71.16 + 144.77 = 215.93
- 76.60 + 125.58 = 202.28

Avg. Total Score: 209.10

Compared to their rivals, Alysa remains the most consistent and level-headed competitor. However, unlike Kaori or Daria, Alysa is prone to under-rotating and if the technical panel is strict, Alysa's score will definitely be detrimentally affected. On the other hand, Kaori and Young are not the most consistent skaters and if they have an off day, Alysa can definitely best them. Daria remains Alysa's biggest threat as even on an off day, she scores north of 140.

Other dark horses include Mana, Rino, and Seo-yeong. Although Mana can be inconsistent, Rino and Seo-yeong are natural competitors who can rival Alysa's consistency and neither of them suffer from under-rotation calls (although Seo-yeong's edges might get called). Finally, Amber should not be counted out either; although she has been inconsistent, with Karen's less than spectacular showing at Skate Canada, Amber has a great opportunity to improve and show that she is a leading contender.
Click to expand...
Great analyses but has Daria skated enough to even comment on consistency. This event is wide open and Russia really looks vulnerable with Sasha out. Mind you this is a chance for Liu to show her promise and win gold, the Koreans, Japanese or Daria to shine. Liu could really make a claim to a world and oly medal here. Remember she was a junior phenom like Valieva and some thought she might be better so who knows.
 
Skater Boy said:
So does this mean Gracie could win US Nats and probably wouldn't make it to olympics.
Click to expand...

Artemisa said:
I doubt that any federation wouldn't send her champion to the olympics (no matter what rules) .... and if was Grace .. imagine the publicity and the new popularity that could raise for figure skating ... a fenix from ashes
Click to expand...

IMO: As someone who likes Gracie, I do not think it is doing her any favors to envision a miraculous win for her at 2022 Nats.

In late October, she placed fourth in Leesburg, where Thorngren placed first -- outscoring Gracie by 39 points.
Yes, Gracie will have a chance in Alpharetta to improve her score.
And if she were to qualify for Nats, it would be possible for her score to improve again, compared to her Championship Series scores.
But Nats are only eight weeks away from now (Senior Women SP on Thu Jan 6).

As of now, I am increasingly optimistic that Gracie could succeed in qualifying for Nats. (Although we will not know for sure until the entire Series concludes.)
But qualifying for Nats obviously is a much lower bar than winning Nats -- which would require Gracie to outscore the nine women with byes (Thorngren, Liu, Glenn, etc., etc.), plus eight others who will advance from Championship Series (including the likes of Izzo and Harrell, who so far are well ahead of Gracie).


moonvine said:
The best possible result for Gracie at this point would be a top 6 finish at Nationals and maybe a 4 CCs assignment if she wants it. And that’s a very remote possibility.
Click to expand...

Gracie does not have the SP tech minimum for Four Continents (or Olympics) in hand.
At Cranberry Cup, she met only the FS minimum.
 
ice coverage said:
IMO: As someone who likes Gracie, I do not think it is doing her any favors to envision a miraculous win for her at 2022 Nats.

In late October, she placed fourth in Leesburg, where Thorngren placed first -- outscoring Gracie by 39 points.
Yes, Gracie will have a chance in Alpharetta to improve her score.
And if she were to qualify for Nats, it would be possible for her score to improve again, compared to her Championship Series scores.
But Nats are only eight weeks away from now (Senior Women SP on Thu Jan 6).

As of now, I am increasingly optimistic that Gracie could succeed in qualifying for Nats. (Although we will not know for sure until the entire Series concludes.)
But qualifying for Nats obviously is a much lower bar than winning Nats -- which would require Gracie to outscore the nine women with byes (Thorngren, Liu, Glenn, etc., etc.), plus eight others who will advance from Championship Series (including the likes of Izzo and Harrell, who so far are well ahead of Gracie).




Gracie does not have the SP tech minimum for Four Continents (or Olympics) in hand.
At Cranberry Cup, she met only the FS minimum.
Click to expand...
Well, I didn’t think it was likely but it seems it would be impossible. So if she had a good result at US Nationals, backed up by good results next summer, she might get something like a Skate America host pick. She’s got a long hard slog still ahead of her.

And you’re right - she’s not even in the ISP.
 
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