2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating

[prorussian fan]

Does anyone think Gracie still has a shot at that third place? I would love to see that.

 

[Tinymavy15]

Congratulations to Mariah on her 4th place at RC - and the 210 score - all without a triple triple! Her positive GOEs and PCS really carried her to that 140+ score. I think she was even shocked by her score, I know I was.

Now I am rooting for her to make the team, she is now 25 and she will probably look to retire at some point soon - she deserves her Olympic moment. And she was so wise to change her programs - both fit her so much more than the Lady Gaga and the Both Sides Now program. (How time flies, I still remember her Titanic program from several years ago, when she was with Kori and Rohene).

Good luck to her at Golden Spin and US Nats!

Mariah is totally channeling Adam and making her skating elegant and clean and perfect without doing the jump content the top ladies are trying. She really does need to try a triple triple, and hope she gets it in the program by Nats. SO GLAD she listened to everyone and ditched those programs from over the summer. She's now skating her best content, and reminding us all why she's special. Both SP and Free are totally Olympic packaging and while her free in Russian was not as detailed as the original program, I have no doubt she will finesse it by late January.

 

[yelyoh]

Does anyone think Gracie still has a shot at that third place? I would love to see that.

Well if she were to improve the same amount as she did from the first comp to the second she would be in the upper 180s. I think that would be her max and since the others are able to do that I think 3rd would be a long shot. And I'm not sure if she has the minimums for anything other than 4CC. Maybe someone knows more. I am hoping she skates clean with no pops and is happy with how she did. That would make me happy.

 

[mrrice]

Does anyone think Gracie still has a shot at that third place? I would love to see that.

I think Gracie's best hope is to make the final flight and possibly be sent to 4CC. Maybe Worlds if the Olympians decide to pass on Worlds. Unfortunately, I don't think the Olympics are going to happen. Even if Gracie skates a "Blinder" similar to Ross Miner who won the Silver and still didn't get on the team. I don't think the committee would select her based on her performances and scores this season.

 

[ice coverage]

.. And I'm not sure if she has the minimums for anything other than 4CC. ...

I think Gracie's best hope is to make the final flight and possibly be sent to 4CC. ...

Reminder: Gracie does *not* have the SP tech minimum for Four Continents.

And because of the lack of internationals before the deadline for earning Four Continents minimums, even a diehard supporter like @norwegianfairytale has not figured out any available opportunity to earn them at this point.

 

[mrrice]

Reminder: Gracie does *not* have the SP tech minimum for Four Continents.

And because of the lack of internationals before the deadline for earning the Four Continents minimums, even a diehard supporter like @norwegianfairytale has not figured out any available opportunity to earn them at this point.

I didn't know that 4CC had tech minimums. Can she use her scores from Nationals if she were to skate well there?

 

[ice coverage]

I didn't know that 4CC had tech minimums. Can she use her scores from Nationals if she were to skate well there?

No.
Only international scores count toward ISU tech minimums.

 

[mrrice]

No.
Only international scores count toward ISU tech minimums.

I understand. Thank You.

 

[skatefan17]

If Lindsay skates clean programs at Nationals, I don't think Karen will make the team. "If" Bradie Tennell does not skate, I could see a team of Alysa, Mariah, and Lindsay.

Woah! This team feels very believable. Do you think this changes if Mariah has a less than stellar skate next week?

 

[skatefan17]

Mariah is totally channeling Adam and making her skating elegant and clean and perfect without doing the jump content the top ladies are trying. She really does need to try a triple triple, and hope she gets it in the program by Nats. SO GLAD she listened to everyone and ditched those programs from over the summer. She's now skating her best content, and reminding us all why she's special. Both SP and Free are totally Olympic packaging and while her free in Russian was not as detailed as the original program, I have no doubt she will finesse it by late January.

So much this! The Britney program was too fast for her and she always looked a beat behind somehow. Her new programs - and especially the classy packaging! - is such a treat. She looks very unique amongst the top skaters of today.

 

[mrrice]

Woah! This team feels very believable. Do you think this changes if Mariah has a less than stellar skate next week?

Mariah has improved with every event. She's moving in the right direction and I can definitely see her on the podium at Nationals. I sure wish she had tried her 3/3 in Russia because she'll need it if Bradie skates.

 

[dancelion21]

Mariah has improved with every event. She's moving in the right direction and I can definitely see her on the podium at Nationals. I sure wish she had tried her 3/3 in Russia because she'll need it if Bradie skates.

I actually wonder if she will. Depending on her performance at Golden Spin, I feel like Mariah has pretty comfortably put herself ahead of Karen, Amber, and Lindsay in the US lady pecking order. Mariah gets better PCS and GOE than both Amber and Lindsay, which negates their BV advantage. Yes, Amber has a triple axel, which I feel is getting less and less likely to actually be landed in competition. Mariah gets pretty similar PCS to Karen, but Karen struggles on rotating all her triples, while Mariah doesn't. Mariah's also more consistent than Amber and Karen. If Mariah's the solid US No. 2 lady, then even if Bradie comes back strong, Mariah can still make the Olympic team.

It just doesn't say a lot about the US ladies field as a whole that one of the top contenders for the Olympic spots doesn't even have a triple/triple.

 

[mrrice]

I actually wonder if she will. Depending on her performance at Golden Spin, I feel like Mariah has pretty comfortably put herself ahead of Karen, Amber, and Lindsay in the US lady pecking order. Mariah gets better PCS and GOE than both Amber and Lindsay, which negates their BV advantage. Yes, Amber has a triple axel, which I feel is getting less and less likely to actually be landed in competition. Mariah gets pretty similar PCS to Karen, but Karen struggles on rotating all her triples, while Mariah doesn't. Mariah's also more consistent than Amber and Karen. If Mariah's the solid US No. 2 lady, then even if Bradie comes back strong, Mariah can still make the Olympic team.

It just doesn't say a lot about the US ladies field as a whole that one of the top contenders for the Olympic spots doesn't even have a triple/triple.

It sure does. However, Jason Brown doesn't have a consistent quad and he does well due his Component Numbers. I can see that happening with Mariah.

 

[el henry]

Mariah is planning on the triple/triple:

 

[RatedPG]

I disagree with those placing Lindsay over Karen Chen for an Olympic Spot. First of all, Karen came in 4th place at Worlds. She is the reason there are three spots to begin with. She also beat Mariah at last year Nationals and even as recent as last week at GP France. Last week. Not a few months ago. But, last week. Remember, she came in 5th and Mariah was 6th. Karen is super solid with her spot for the Olympics. So, don’t even look Karen’s way to be replaced to the Olympics .

The reason why I’m posting in Karen’s defence is because she has a lot of factors to her advantage.

1) High World Ranking

This is very important. Her high ranking is a result of handling her nerves in the big stages. She couldn’t have done better at Worlds considering her technical abilities. But, this high ranking is crucial as it puts her in the final flight of skaters at the Olympics. Being one of the last skaters, will give her a higher PCS potential and this is important. The best example of how a low ranking can negatively affect a skaters score is best depicted by no other athlete other than Lindsay. At Warsaw, Lindsay started near the beginning, due to low ranking and being relatively unknown and was subject to UR calls and a low PCS score. She ended the competition with 180+ score and much lower than I anticipated. She lost to Schott. I think this ended her hopes to be selected to the team, as the federation will be scared to send someone who hasn’t scored high in a Senior National event and hasn’t caused a splash yet.

2) The Levito factor

Why does someone like Levito matter in this conversation? Here is why….If Bradie is out of the picture, with the way people are skating, I do believe Lindsay has a chance to beat Karen, at Nationals. But, it will be hard as Karen should have a huge PCS advantage over Lindsay. But, say for example, this does happen, for example, I see Alysa, Isabeau and Mariah on the podium. Levito has beaten Lindsay at every local event on avg by about 20 points. Liu is the chosen one and Mariah is their darling. Say, Lindsay has the skate of her life and finishes in 4th place with Chen down in 5th, just ahead of Amber Glenn. Thanks to Levito taking a podium spot, Liu and Bell make it to the Olympics and then Chen gets chosen rightfully so, due to her impressive resume and 1) over Lindsay. So, this is why I think it will be difficult for Chen to be knocked off the team. Because this is one of the worse case scenarios and I still see them choosing Chen. Now, if Bell has a bit of a meltdown, and Lindsay finishes third. Then, things could get more interesting. In this case, I see them choosing Chen over Bell ; so, still Karen will make it . But, in this worse case scenario, realistically, I still see Bell and Chen chosen over Lindsay. So, unless Lindsay wins, that is only scenario, I see Lindsay chosen. But, that is why the Levito factor is huge, as the chances of that happening are slim to none. So, Levito participating at US Nationals, is a huge obstacle in Lindsay’s way.

3) Bradie’s injury

If Bradie is injured…which I don’t want to talk about as she is my favourite ; the USA needs someone like Karen Chen even more. Bradie and Karen earned three spots for USA and if Bradie isn’t able to compete, well, I think this favours Karen Chen, even more as surely one of the two that earned the points to put USA in this position, deserves to be on the team. They need someone like Chen to mentor the other two in terms of mental toughness, etc. So, this works to Chen’s favour.

4) The Last Hurrah

After all Karen has done for USA ladies figure skating, I think the USA will love to give Karen her moment before the new generation replaces her. The new generation isn’t here yet. Levito is too young and Lindsay lacks emotional maturity and artistic impression at this stage of her career. This favours skaters like Karen as I see the committee favouring her at this moment due to this being her last opportunity, before the new generation takes over. Which won’t happen, till next year.

So, this is why I think Karen has a 80-90% chance of making it to the Olympics. As long as she doesn’t have a complete meltdown at Nationals, the last event prior to selection, I see her being selected.

With that being said, I can’t wait for a new generation to replace ladies like Chen and Bell, who appear to be actually heading in the opposite direction in terms of technical layout difficulty. The hunger isn’t there for Bell and Chen. Athletes like Lindsay and Isabeau are hungrier and it will be interesting to see how they push US Ladies figure skating forward. Personally, I’m rooting for the new girls for the next Olympic cycle as I’m a bit bored with Bell and Chen. Karen is probably my least favourite out of the contending ladies, as I root for ladies like Tennell who practice super hard and try Loop combos and even the 3A. Bradie was supposed to have a 3A this year…. She was so hungry to learn this element as she knew it would be the only way she could sneak a top five finish with an outside chance of a podium spot. I will continue hoping and praying for a Bradie comeback at Nationals

 

[skaket023]

Yes, I think they will send Chen if the line up is not Alysa, Bradie, and Mariah. They are always loyal to the skaters who have been around the longest. Think about Camden and Tomoki. They continue to give them every chance to get it together.

 

[natsulian]

With a solid and consistent 3F3T, Mariah’s base value increases by 2.12 points for her free skate. Not only is this a considerable amount when grade of execution is factored, a reliable 3F3T also allows Mariah to consistently score 70+ in the short program. Mariah can break 220 internationally but it will depend on maintaining her consistency and adding in the 3F3T in both of her programs. If Bradie comes blazing, then a team consisting of Alysa, Mariah, and Bradie seems fitting and almost nostalgic; these three amazing women have been pushing each other for the past four years and their respective journeys have been exciting, heartbreaking, and joyful to watch.

 

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Watching yesterday live Mariah's skating I was impressed. She is fast, she is confident. She involves you in her skating, makes you try to understand her message while skating to such an emotional piece as Alleluiah. Even without added 3-3s she is a clear team contender. With those I would argue that she can be No. 1 in the USA now.

 

[SorrySkater]

For everyone citing Karen Chen’s 4th place finish at worlds as the reason she should make the team, remember that Ashley Wagner’s world silver medal didn’t help her at all. The US fed gave the spot to Karen Chen instead.

There’s so much dismissive talk here about Bradie’s 9th place finish at Worlds, citing that as a reason she shouldn’t make the team, despite the fact that she placed 9th while skating in broken boots. I’d like to see her naysayers pull this off. Granted, her injuries might make this a moot point, but still. Count me as someone hoping to see her back at 100% for Nationals and a member of the Olympic team.

 

[Amei]

For everyone citing Karen Chen’s 4th place finish at worlds as the reason she should make the team, remember that Ashley Wagner’s world bronze medal didn’t help her at all. The US fed gave the spot to Karen Chen instead.

The US fed went with the top 3 finishers at Nationals last Olympics. Given that Ashley finished fourth at Nationals prior to Sochi and was saved by the committee and finished fourth at Nationals prior to Pyeongchang the committee probably felt they shouldn't save her again.