2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating | Page 206 | Golden Skate

2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating

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Amber may have landed 3a<, but there was no 3/3.

I don't understand why she goes for it in the SP but not the FS. It's far more risky in the SP since a bad attempt could end in a fall, which could put her right out of contention.

A FS attempt makes more sense.
 
If Amber can hold it together in the LP, she could win this event. I know she's talked a lot about her 3A but, I have to wonder if it's holding her back. IMO, she doesn't need it to make the team in the US. Her jumps are big and exciting and I think 2 3/3 combo's in her Long Program would lift her ahead Mariah. Who knows, I love all the ladies in contention and I hope the top 3 skate lights out at Nationals.
 
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I think we will see the 3A in the FS from Amber - it makes sense if she is trying it in the SP. One of these ladies or a couple of them really need to show they want it. I know easier said then done. There is Alyssa and the the rest. Karen and Mariah are still the most complete skaters especially when on. If they are on I don't think Lindsay or Amber could beat them right now.
 
If Amber can hold it together in the LP, she could win this event. I know she's talked a lot about her 3A but, I have to wonder if it's holding her back. IMO, she doesn't need it to make the team in the US. Her jumps are big and exciting and I think 2 3/3 combo's in her Long Program would lift her ahead Mariah. Who knows, I love all the ladies in contention and I hope the top 3 skate lights out at Nationals.
At this point I think she DOES need it, she needs to win Nationals, and to do that, she needs the 3A, and she needs to hit the rest of her elements as well. Today she really had it, just doubted herself I think. But she can't miss the other elements as well.
 
If Amber can hold it together in the LP, she could win this event. I know she's talked a lot about her 3A but, I have to wonder if it's holding her back. IMO, she doesn't need it to make the team in the US. Her jumps are big and exciting and I think 2 3/3 combo's in her Long Program would lift her ahead Mariah.

Has Amber ever done two 3-3s in her FS though? She hasn't been that consistent even with her non-3A layout, and it seems like she really might need that 3A to get an edge on Mariah. She doesn't have much of an international track record and seems to be perceived as behind Mariah and Karen. A clean program with one 3-3 wasn't enough for her last year, so she's going for that 3A even though it's high risk. Her chances look slim, so maybe she feels she might as well go for broke.

It's kinda funny- the Russian and Japanese women are trying to add 3As and things, meanwhile in the US it feels like we're telling the ladies to hold back and do bare minimum in hopes that the other US women will do even less than them. :ROFLMAO: There needs to be a focus on international competition, not just trying to beat each other. Mariah should be encouraged to go for that 3-3, Amber should be encouraged to do 3A, etc. It's true that these skaters might be better off without these elements domestically, but how much good does that do. It's a tough call.
 
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At this point I think she DOES need it, she needs to win Nationals, and to do that, she needs the 3A, and she needs to hit the rest of her elements as well. Today she really had it, just doubted herself I think. But she can't miss the other elements as well.

Has Amber ever done two 3-3s in her FS though? She hasn't been that consistent even with her non-3A layout, and it seems like she really might need that 3A to get an edge on Mariah. She doesn't have much of an international track record and seems to be perceived as behind Mariah and Karen. A clean program with one 3-3 wasn't enough for her last year, so she's going for that 3A even though it's high risk. Her chances look slim, so maybe she feels she might as well go for broke.

It's kinda funny- the Russian and Japanese women are trying to add 3As and things, meanwhile in the US it feels like we're telling the ladies to hold back and do bare minimum in hopes that the other US women will do even less than them. :ROFLMAO: There needs to be a focus on international competition, not just trying to beat each other. Mariah should be encouraged to go for that 3-3, Amber should be encouraged to do 3A, etc. It's true that these skaters might be better off without these elements domestically, but how much good does that do. It's a tough call.
It will be interesting to see what happens if Lindsay medals in at Nationals. With her tech content she is a real threat. Seeing her land that 3 lutz 3 loop was exciting.
 
It will be interesting to see what happens if Lindsay medals in at Nationals. With her tech content she is a real threat. Seeing her land that 3 lutz 3 loop was exciting.
She will need the lutz loop, (even if 'q') and may need it in the second half. Only Alysa is going for the second half bonus on combos-(with limited success), something that really puts us behind other skaters in the world. I think it is just as much perception as actual execution-one more way American skaters are falling behind other skaters in the world. (Especially Russians of course). We are getting left behind in small ways as well as big ways. Amber in particular does better jumps when she has shaken off the nerves and settled in a bit, she should certainly be moving the opening combo to the second half.
 
Has Amber ever done two 3-3s in her FS though? She hasn't been that consistent even with her non-3A layout, and it seems like she really might need that 3A to get an edge on Mariah. She doesn't have much of an international track record and seems to be perceived as behind Mariah and Karen. A clean program with one 3-3 wasn't enough for her last year, so she's going for that 3A even though it's high risk. Her chances look slim, so maybe she feels she might as well go for broke.

It's kinda funny- the Russian and Japanese women are trying to add 3As and things, meanwhile in the US it feels like we're telling the ladies to hold back and do bare minimum in hopes that the other US women will do even less than them. :ROFLMAO: There needs to be a focus on international competition, not just trying to beat each other. Mariah should be encouraged to go for that 3-3, Amber should be encouraged to do 3A, etc. It's true that these skaters might be better off without these elements domestically, but how much good does that do. It's a tough call.
None of them will medal at the Olympics, other than (hopefully) a team medal and Alysa will likely be the only one to get that. I really wish it went to the whole team but you know what they say about wishes.

So getting there is the important part for them. And they should (in my opinion) skate that way. Adding a triple triple or even a single 3A will bring them no closer to an Olympic podium.
 
Has Amber ever done two 3-3s in her FS though? She hasn't been that consistent even with her non-3A layout, and it seems like she really might need that 3A to get an edge on Mariah. She doesn't have much of an international track record and seems to be perceived as behind Mariah and Karen. A clean program with one 3-3 wasn't enough for her last year, so she's going for that 3A even though it's high risk. Her chances look slim, so maybe she feels she might as well go for broke.

It's kinda funny- the Russian and Japanese women are trying to add 3As and things, meanwhile in the US it feels like we're telling the ladies to hold back and do bare minimum in hopes that the other US women will do even less than them. :ROFLMAO:

omg, I needed a laugh this morning 😄😄😄😄 thank you. This statement is kinda true.
There needs to be a focus on international competition, not just trying to beat each other. Mariah should be encouraged to go for that 3-3, Amber should be encouraged to do 3A, etc. It's true that these skaters might be better off without these elements domestically, but how much good does that do. It's a tough call.
 
None of them will medal at the Olympics, other than (hopefully) a team medal and Alysa will likely be the only one to get that. I really wish it went to the whole team but you know what they say about wishes.

So getting there is the important part for them. And they should (in my opinion) skate that way. Adding a triple triple or even a single 3A will bring them no closer to an Olympic podium.

Has Amber ever done two 3-3s in her FS though? She hasn't been that consistent even with her non-3A layout, and it seems like she really might need that 3A to get an edge on Mariah. She doesn't have much of an international track record and seems to be perceived as behind Mariah and Karen. A clean program with one 3-3 wasn't enough for her last year, so she's going for that 3A even though it's high risk. Her chances look slim, so maybe she feels she might as well go for broke.

It's kinda funny- the Russian and Japanese women are trying to add 3As and things, meanwhile in the US it feels like we're telling the ladies to hold back and do bare minimum in hopes that the other US women will do even less than them. :ROFLMAO: There needs to be a focus on international competition, not just trying to beat each other. Mariah should be encouraged to go for that 3-3, Amber should be encouraged to do 3A, etc. It's true that these skaters might be better off without these elements domestically, but how much good does that do. It's a tough call.
The Olympics are a whole different animal. Look at Adelina Sotnikova. She has ZERO World Medals and 2 Silvers from Europeans. She had lost to Yulia just weeks before Sochi and was not the favorite going in. No one that I know had Sarah Huges winning in 2002. She had exactly one win over Irina and Michelle in her entire career going into Salt Lake City. That was Skate Canada but, she lost Nationals to Michelle that same season. I think most people expected Yuna Kim to win in Sochi, and some people think she should have. Blanket statements like this are often proven wrong.
 
Now that the fall competition circuit is truly over

Group 1 - Consistent Top 3
Nobody

Group 2 - Consistent Top 5 or Top 3 Once, pending top 5 at US Nationals
Alysa Liu
SB: 219.24 (CS Lombardia)
Median: 206.53


Group 3 - Consistent Top 10 or Top 5 Once
Mariah Bell
SB: 210.35 (Rostelecom)
Median: 200.57

Karen Chen
SB: 208.63 (Worlds 2021)
Median: 194 (includes Worlds 2021 score)


Group 4 - Consistent Top 15 or Top 10 Once
Bradie Tennell
SB: 197.81 (Worlds 2021)
Median: N/A

Amber Glenn
SB: 201.02 (Skate Canada)
Median: 183.41

Lindsay Thorngren
SB: 193.77 (JGP Slovenia)
Median: 184.40

If the team were chosen today without Nationals results, it would be Alysa, Karen, and Mariah. For any of Bradie, Amber, or Lindsay to make the Olympic team, they would need to place in the top 3 at US Nationals. Alysa is still essentially a lock for the team since she only needs to place top 5 to be guaranteed to go since no one is making it into groups 1 or 2. Mariah and Karen are in a solid position, but they still need to perform their best at Nationals.
 
It's very interesting...Amber's FS score here at Golden Spin is still higher (with no 3-3) than Karen's at Skate Canada FS w/ 3-3s.

Mariah, Karen and Amber have only broken 200 once during this season. If you look at the chart on skatingscores for each of them, it's really hard to make a determination as to who should get the spot right now. Lindsay has never broken 200 so unless she wins nationals I don't see how she's a shoo in, ultra C elements or not, and we all know she won't get the same PCS as Karen, who seems to be getting the Carolina Kostner treatment.
 
Mariah, Karen and Amber have only broken 200 once during this season. If you look at the chart on skatingscores for each of them, it's really hard to make a determination as to who should get the spot right now. Lindsay has never broken 200 so unless she wins nationals I don't see how she's a shoo in, ultra C elements or not, and we all know she won't get the same PCS as Karen, who seems to be getting the Carolina Kostner treatment.
Based on the criteria that USFS set out back in July, Mariah and Karen are both ahead of Amber in the pecking order because Mariah and Karen both crossed the 208.44 threshold for what would have been top 5 at Worlds last year. Karen hasn't crossed that threshold this season, but she did at Worlds 2021, and that's good enough for the committee. Karen also gets the added bonus of having "consistently scored top 10" by the committee's definition since Worlds 2021 scores also count for that, and her median score at eligible competitions this season is 194, just above the 193.44 needed to be top 10 at Worlds 2021. Mariah's 210.35 is above the top 5 threshold they drew, and her median score (her Cranberry score doesn't count since that's not an eligible competition) is 200.57, which is also above the threshold needed for consistent top 10.

Are USFS's boundaries somewhat arbitrary? Yes, but the line has to be drawn somewhere, and this is how they've decided it.
 
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