2021-22 Japanese Women's Figure Skating

[rinkside_user]

Four Continents Champion (Mihara) and World Junior Champion (Honda) are not "major international achievements"? Unlike Wakaba, they've both actually won major international competitions.

Oh, you are right about Mihara, I completely forgot about her 4CC medals. Still, I think her technical content puts her in a different position compared to the years where she claimed those medals. On the other hand, Higuchi and Kihira upped their technical arsenal and Sakamoto has better placements than Mihara.

As for Honda, however, junior-level achievements are not really relevant here - just look at all those junior champions who, entering the senior circuit, completely vanished from the scene (sadly, that's what is happening to Honda, too). You could argue this has been changing but if you are not from a Russian coaching environment, being a JWC means less than what you indicate.

 

[lzxnl]

Wakaba has edge issues, but is more unclear than wrong edge like what was given here. The q's were borderline. Rika does not have edge issues, true, but Kaori has worse edge on her lutz. And they both(and Mihara) have just as many borderline q's on their combos as Wakaba does. But as with the Russians here, they get away with them much more often. And other than Satoko, no Japanese should be getting higher PCS than Wakaba. JSF evidently thinks Wakaba clean with a 3A is close to clean Kaori, and barely better than clean Mihara, both of which is absurd. The only Japanese that should beat clean Wakaba is clean Rika with a quad(without would come down to PCS) . The issue in the real world is will Wakaba skate back to back relatively clean programs? She hasn't in a very long time, but she needs too,as you correctly stated.

I'm inclined to believe that a clean Rika without a quad still beats clean Wakaba, particularly because Rika is capable of a more optimal jump layout. She is capable of two 3As as well as a 3Lo combination, which allows for shenanigans like

3A+3T
3A
3Lz
2A
3F+Eu+3S
2A
3F/3Lz+3Lo

nothing there being something she hasn't shown before. Technically, this essentially replaces a 2T, 2Lo, 3T with a 3A, Eu, 2A, which puts her about 5 points ahead of Wakaba.

Practically, Wakaba would need two clean programs, which as you've said does not occur often (if at all).

 

[AlysaLiuStan]

Any updates on Rika's condition?

 

[Joekaz]

I'm inclined to believe that a clean Rika without a quad still beats clean Wakaba, particularly because Rika is capable of a more optimal jump layout. She is capable of two 3As as well as a 3Lo combination, which allows for shenanigans like

3A+3T
3A
3Lz
2A
3F+Eu+3S
2A
3F/3Lz+3Lo

nothing there being something she hasn't shown before. Technically, this essentially replaces a 2T, 2Lo, 3T with a 3A, Eu, 2A, which puts her about 5 points ahead of Wakaba.

Practically, Wakaba would need two clean programs, which as you've said does not occur often (if at all).

Yes, you are correct, I forgot the 3A combo, which would still be an advantage she would have. Wakaba has done it in practice before, but it would really help her to get it in at Nats, but I doubt they would risk premiering it there. And consistency is indeed her main issue.

 

[zanadude]

As for Honda, however, junior-level achievements are not really relevant here - just look at all those junior champions who, entering the senior circuit, completely vanished from the scene (sadly, that's what is happening to Honda, too). You could argue this has been changing but if you are not from a Russian coaching environment, being a JWC means less than what you indicate.

A junior world championship is perfectly relevant. It nets more world ranking points than winning a senior grand prix event.

 

[Dawn825]

but if you are not from a Russian coaching environment, being a JWC means less than what you indicate.

Fun fact, Marin is the only woman not from a Russian environment to win JWC in the last decade.

 

[zanadude]

Fun fact, Marin is the only woman not from a Russian environment to win JWC in the last decade.

There won't be a Japanese skater changing that this year. Current Japan juniors cannot even win their own Junior Nationals.

 

[Joekaz]

Fun fact, Marin is the only woman not from a Russian environment to win JWC in the last decade.

And she had a longer senior career than most of them. Lol

 

[Joekaz]

The Japanese women that go to the Olympics this year must skate lights out. It is shocking how little respect the Japanese women get from other countries fans on this site. When I say Alysa Liu wouldn't make the Japanese Oly team(obviously), or that she wouldn't even be top 5(debateble, but not outrageous), it is unbelievable the response I get from some people.This constant underperforming (and underscoring to be fair) at big international comps has to stop,so that maybe the women will get the respect they deserve.

 

[YuBluByMe]

The Grand Prix series is over. I’m just going to post the top scores from the Japanese ladies for reference:

1. Kaori Sakamoto: 223.34
2. Mai Mihara: 214.95
3. Satoko Miyahara: 209.57
4. Mana Kawabe: 205.44
5. Wakabe Higuchi: 204.91
6. Rino Matsuike: 186.17

This is a rough blue-print of what we may see at Nationals, which is only a month away. The joker’s wild is Rika. If she shows up to Nationals, I expect for her to make the podium and make the Olympic team, even without a 3A. Another would be Matsuike’s condition by Nationals. This isn’t last year so even if she’s in form, I don’t see her on the Olympic team. See how quickly things change? The bottom line is that someone with some skills will be left off the team regardless if Rika or Matsuike show up ready to play ball.

 

[surimi]

I hope Wakaba can make the Olympic team. Her programs are impressive and have a lot of potential.

 

[readernick]

My team would be Rika ( if healthy), Wakaba and Mana but since none of my favorites are the Japanese judges' favorites this will definitely not happen

 

[Joekaz]

My team would be Rika ( if healthy), Wakaba and Mana but since none of my favorites are the Japanese judges' favorites this week definitely not happen

Mine too, but according to JSF Wakaba clean with 2 3As is a little behind Sakamoto, and Mana is way behind. Its funny to me when Japanese fans complain about Russian inflated scores, but say nothing about JSF doing the same with Kaori. At least the Russians dont win by skating the easiest programs, Lol. I am wary of Mai because she has gotten some very lenient scoring this year. That team seems to have alot of influence with the Fed, another similarity with Russia.

 

[zanadude]

I don't know who will be going to the Beijing Games, but after watching the Jr. Nationals competition, I'm very sure that Mao Shimada will be going to the Milan Games.

 

[cohkaix]

Rion Sumiyoshi is attempting 4T in her FS program: the competition is a local one, for the selection of Tokyo region representatives to the Inter High School competition (after the Nationals). Protocol to the competition is as follow:

https://www.jsfresults.com/local/2021-2022/fs/13/314/data0405.pdf

So it looks like no fall from the quad attempt, but it is marked as 'q'.

Rion may still challenge it in the upcoming JGPF.

 

[Jeanie19]

I want Mai on the Olympic team.

 

[figureskatingandrainbows]

Rion Sumiyoshi is attempting 4T in her FS program: the competition is a local one, for the selection of Tokyo region representatives to the Inter High School competition (after the Nationals). Protocol to the competition is as follow:

https://www.jsfresults.com/local/2021-2022/fs/13/314/data0405.pdf

So it looks like no fall from the quad attempt, but it is marked as 'q'.

Rion may still challenge it in the upcoming JGPF.

She posted a video on her IG stories. She landed one in the six-minute warmup with a step out and fell on the one in competition. If it's consistent, I'd love to see her stun everyone with a quad toe at the Final. If not, I hope she decides to skate a lovely program with only triples.

 

[zanadude]

I think Sakamoto caught a break with the GPF cancellation. She avoids the fate of Higuchi, who finished dead last in the Finals in an Olympics year, and that did her no favors when trying to land an Olympics spot with a fourth place finish in Nationals.

 

[randomfan]

I think Sakamoto caught a break with the GPF cancellation. She avoids the fate of Higuchi, who finished dead last in the Finals in an Olympics year, and that did her no favors when trying to land an Olympics spot with a fourth place finish in Nationals.

I think these two situations are actually quite different from each other. Wakaba was the only Japanese to officially qualify, but she got unlucky with Evgenia's withdrawal. The first alternate just so happened to be Satoko, who was not only Japanese, but also one of the front-runners for the Olympic team. And even if Satoko couldn't go, the second alternate was Kaori. Satoko placing 5th and Wakaba 6th at a home GPF was far from ideal, but it was worse for Wakaba:

1) She placed behind someone who originally didn't qualify.
2) That someone was Japanese = direct comparison for Olympic team.
3) 2nd to 5th were within 4 points of each other, while Wakaba was a distant 6th.

Meanwhile, Kaori this year wouldn't have had to worry about any of these. She was still the only Japanese to qualify for the GPF anyway so no direct comparison in regards to making the Olympic team (but GPF or not, Kaori is pretty much a lock anyway ). In this particular season, it's impressive that she was the only non-Russian to qualify, and for the 4th spot at that. Yes, Mai is third alternate, but AFAIK, there hasn't yet been a situation where more than two skaters withdrew from GPF.

 

[randomfan]

The Grand Prix series is over. I’m just going to post the top scores from the Japanese ladies for reference:

1. Kaori Sakamoto: 223.34
2. Mai Mihara: 214.95
3. Satoko Miyahara: 209.57
4. Mana Kawabe: 205.44
5. Wakabe Higuchi: 204.91
6. Rino Matsuike: 186.17

This is a rough blue-print of what we may see at Nationals, which is only a month away. The joker’s wild is Rika. If she shows up to Nationals, I expect for her to make the podium and make the Olympic team, even without a 3A. Another would be Matsuike’s condition by Nationals. This isn’t last year so even if she’s in form, I don’t see her on the Olympic team. See how quickly things change? The bottom line is that someone with some skills will be left off the team regardless if Rika or Matsuike show up ready to play ball.

Not that it makes a difference in standings, but Wakaba got 205.27 at Skate Canada.

Sadly, I think Rino's chances are almost gone by now. Her injury has prevented her from showing anywhere near her best on the GP, and she'll need to do her career best performances at Nationals to even be considered at this point. As for Rika, I think she'll be on the team as long as she makes the podium, but we haven't heard any promising updates about her condition, and Nationals is less than a month away.