2021 Worlds are still on

[brakes]

There is no 2-week quarantine before entering the bubble, so there is the potential to test negative and still spread the virus. Not quite sure how wearing a mask is unfair or harmful. Everybody has to do it (so not unfair) and no proven harm in wearing them for regular activities.

1. hyperventilating in K&C right after 3-4 minutes of exhausting physical effort in mask is not regular activity,
2. it's totally unfair in a sense that millions of people are spending long hours in work places without masks every single day all over the world within literally zero bubble environment, taking on much lesser physical activity.

I think these kids and young people have been chosen as dummies for advertising pseudo-efforts and to make viewers feel better.

 

[Amei]

Could you please provide a source for that? I just went to the site of the Centre for Disease Control and in their science brief of November 2020 they conclude that masks are effective and should be worn to decrease transmission. (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html)

Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing ...

This report describes changes in COVID-19 case and death growth ...

www.cdc.gov

Published March 2021, if you read the report link it mentions mask mandates the rate of reduced positivity rate of less than 2%. Which my opinion is minimal.

 

[DizzyFrenchie]

Uhm, would you mind sharing some sources for that? Last I checked, this isn't the case. Data for the UK variant - which seems to be the one that has spread the most so far - suggest that the current vaccines are barely affected in their efficiency. The other 2 strains - the South African and the Brazilian variants - carry mutations (like E484K) that are of bigger concern, since studies show a reduction in neutralization of these variants via antibodies. However, if this reduction will actual cause the vaccines to be less efficient isn't clear yet. The vaccines being "virtually useless" is, to call it nicely, unlikely, since the antibody neutralization rate is reduced but not zero, and antibodies are not the only immune response elicited by the vaccinations.

Additionally, I don't think your logic here holds. "Viruses mutate anyway so let's not try to prevent mutations/spread of mutations" - no. The likelihood of concerning variants appearing goes up significantly the more cases of infections there are. More infected people -> more virus circulating -> higher chances for a random mutation to happen -> higher chances for a dangerous mutation to appear and spread. The most efficient way to prevent new (more dangerous) variants is to reduce the number of infections. Talking about the mutations the way you do just sounds like an excuse to do nothing, when it's the opposite. Do you think it's a coincidence concerning variants were found in places like the UK, Brazil or the US, pretty well known for high case numbers, and not say Autralia or South Korea?

The UK variant "without E484K" is said to be effectually affected by the antibodies elicited by devices and vaccines, but to this date I had no numbers. I have not read "barely affected" though, and a "moderate efficacy" in antiviral vaccines may trigger new variants, as may have done the AstraZeneca trials this summer and autumn, which were in... UK, South Africa and Brazil*, or UK's decision to give more first jabs and neglect second jabs. There again, we don't have the thresholds of efficacy (against a given variant) over which the epidemic is fought, and under which new resistant variants appear.
I tend to think, had the Pfizer and Moderna efficacy been above 90% on the "basic UK variants", we would know it.
Trials may be on the way but as both have promoted "real jabs" to their initial placebo recipients, the initial trials were stopped before allowing such study. As far as I know only in-vitro data have been published regarding UK variants.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41...45_deeplink_PID100024933&utm_content=deeplink
(Table/matrix p.6 particularly.)
And this assertion doesn't cover the new UK variant "with E484K mutation".
There again, about variants with E484K mutations, there have been mostly in-vitro trials, which findings are quite alarming, but one can also have a "real life" idea with the Johnson & Johnson and the NovaVax phase III trials in South Africa, mentioned in the previous link.

* https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext

 

[riddle]

Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing ...

This report describes changes in COVID-19 case and death growth ...

www.cdc.gov

Published March 2021, if you read the report link it mentions mask mandates the rate of reduced positivity rate of less than 2%. Which my opinion is minimal.

2 percentage points, not 2 %? I haven't read the full report, but you have to know the actual growth rate to tell how significant 2 percentage points are. That might be almost all of the growth or almost nothing.

 

[norwegianfairytale]

1. hyperventilating in K&C right after 3-4 minutes of exhausting physical effort in mask is not regular activity,
2. it's totally unfair in a sense that millions of people are spending long hours in work places without masks every single day all over the world within literally zero bubble environment, taking on much lesser physical activity.

I think these kids and young people have been chosen as dummies for advertising pseudo-efforts and to make viewers feel better.

Wow, you make it sound like they are being punished. Instead they protect and get protected.

God, this is the least they can do. Skaters have already used mask in such events before.

Of course it´s not pleasant because they breath heavy.

But it´s either this or not compete.

Transmissions are air borne, and droplets from Covid can linger in the air for a long time, particular if t´s bad ventilation. The risk of being infected increase if you stay in the same spot for a longer time and breath in the same air. Skaters can sit there for 5-10 minutes waiting for results and they breath heavy. It may only be 10 minutes between each skater - (the skater who leaves after getting the scores - skater who performs the program in 5 minutes and then sit down). In one day - have many skaters sit there and breath the same air?

As there have been mentioned before - the bubbles when they arrive might not be sufficient. The travel to WC is hight risk, and they can catch the virus right before they arrive and not develop symptoms. They can test negative, be allowed to compete, but still spread the virus if droplets are allowed out in the air.

Add on that B117 seems to be much more contagious. School children are the main drivers of the B117 mutation, even though there are strict measures. In school they are divided into cohorts, they wash hands, they have distance. But it doesn´t help because they simply stay in the same room for a long time and breath the same air. We havn´t seen such increase in the younger age group like we do now.





Mask are not 100% efficient, but it sure decreases the risk a lot! The cost using it is low.

This is a no-brainer.

And whataboutism isn´t relevant at all.

Just to add on, they believe that the transmissions can be lowered in school if they do something about the air and use masks:

 

[ice coverage]

Pretty sure sticking on a mask over your mouth after a grueling SP and FS is going to immensely stink especially when studies have shown masks minimally stop transmission, the CDC study i it was like less than 2%

Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing ...

This report describes changes in COVID-19 case and death growth ...

www.cdc.gov

Published March 2021, if you read the report link it mentions mask mandates the rate of reduced positivity rate of less than 2%. Which my opinion is minimal.

Thoughts:

(1) The research reported in the CDC's Mar 2021 MMWR studied the effect of "mask mandates" -- as opposed to masks per se -- so misleading wording is in your first post that I have quoted.

(2) Reference #6 (from Jun 2020) in the MMWR gives similar data on mask mandates (with Reference #6 having data from fewer months).

From the original paper that is Reference #6 (emphases added):

LIMITATIONS

We were unable to measure face cover use in the community (that is, compliance with the mandate). As such, the estimates represent the intent-to-treat effects of these mandates—that is, their effects as passed and not the individual-level effect of wearing a face mask in public on one’s own COVID-19 risk. Related, we did not measure enforcement of the mandates, which might affect compliance. ...​

The Mar 2021 MMWR acknowledges the limitation of its own data:

The findings in this report are subject to at least three limitations. ... Second, compliance with and enforcement of policies were not measured. ... ​

(3) Excerpt from the DISCUSSION section of Reference #6 (emphases added):

These estimates are not small; they represent nearly 16 percent to 19 percent of the effects of other social distancing measures (school closures; bans on large gatherings; shelter-in-place orders; and closures of restaurants, bars, and entertainment venues) after similar periods from their enactment.​

Bottom line for me:

I hope that mask-wearing rules will be strictly enforced at Stockholm Worlds, including in the Kiss and Cry. ​

---

ETA:

A Feb 2021 CDC MMWR was Reference #7 in the Mar 2021 CDC MMWR.

Based on a quick glance, the sample size for the Feb 2021 CDC MMWR seems smaller. But its finding:

During March 22–October 17, 2020, 10 sites participating in the COVID-19–Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network in states with statewide mask mandates reported a decline in weekly COVID-19–associated hospitalization growth rates by up to start 5.6 percentage points for adults aged 18–64 years after mandate implementation, compared with growth rates during the 4 weeks preceding implementation of the mandate.​

From its Discussion section:

... At the individual level, the prevention benefit of using a mask increases as more persons use masks consistently and correctly. ... This study supports community masking to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. ...​

 

[Supernovaimplosion]

Are coaches allowed in the kiss and cry?

 

[norwegianfairytale]

They have found a variant now in France that escapes the standard PCR-tests. They have observed the same in Finland.

So, if they are only planning on using PCR-test to check the skaters, this might be bad news.

 

[soccerjc77]

I have a funny feeling that Elizaveta Tuktamysheva can win world this year ! That's not what I expect, but my mind say that it's possible that she created the surprise !

 

[norwegianfairytale]

Just so you know, Sweden wants to open the borders to Norway and Denmark again. We have the highest number in the whole pandemic now and 90% of the cases in the capital is the B117 variant.

I think they just gave up controlling the pandemic.

 

[DizzyFrenchie]

Wow, you make it sound like they are being punished. Instead they protect and get protected.

God, this is the least they can do. Skaters have already used mask in such events before.

Of course it´s not pleasant because they breath heavy.

But it´s either this or not compete.

Transmissions are air borne, and droplets from Covid can linger in the air for a long time, particular if t´s bad ventilation. The risk of being infected increase if you stay in the same spot for a longer time and breath in the same air. Skaters can sit there for 5-10 minutes waiting for results and they breath heavy. It may only be 10 minutes between each skater - (the skater who leaves after getting the scores - skater who performs the program in 5 minutes and then sit down). In one day - have many skaters sit there and breath the same air?

As there have been mentioned before - the bubbles when they arrive might not be sufficient. The travel to WC is hight risk, and they can catch the virus right before they arrive and not develop symptoms. They can test negative, be allowed to compete, but still spread the virus if droplets are allowed out in the air.

Add on that B117 seems to be much more contagious. School children are the main drivers of the B117 mutation, even though there are strict measures. In school they are divided into cohorts, they wash hands, they have distance. But it doesn´t help because they simply stay in the same room for a long time and breath the same air. We havn´t seen such increase in the younger age group like we do now.





Mask are not 100% efficient, but it sure decreases the risk a lot! The cost using it is low.

This is a no-brainer.

And whataboutism isn´t relevant at all.

Just to add on, they believe that the transmissions can be lowered in school if they do something about the air and use masks:

Some new variants seem to affect younger people and less the elderly, irrespective of vaccinal status from what I understand.
One can observe the same with different influenza variants.
This being said, if Swedish care home residents have been set free after the jabs, the contamination and severity numbers are likely to go down. Because that was a big low in Swedish CoViD policy, unfit measures affecting greatly care home residents. Other countries, such as Germany, had managed to compensate the lack of family visiting, by specialised animations, and there have been little excess of deaths in care homes, because residents would feel more comfortable and less anxious, which reflected in their immune system. A heavily distressed elderly is likely to catch the least single virus in the air, while when at ease, the same person would need a much higher number of virus to be contaminated.
I don't know if there will be surveys of the outcome of care home residents depending on their receiving jabs or refusing.

 

[Myr]

Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing ...

This report describes changes in COVID-19 case and death growth ...

www.cdc.gov

Published March 2021, if you read the report link it mentions mask mandates the rate of reduced positivity rate of less than 2%. Which my opinion is minimal.

2 percentage points, not 2 %? I haven't read the full report, but you have to know the actual growth rate to tell how significant 2 percentage points are. That might be almost all of the growth or almost nothing.

The (rather complicated) report you quote is talking about the decrease in growth rate in daily COVID case levels after the introduction of a mask mandate in the US. It is not talking about the effectiveness of masks on the level of the individual.

Moreover as riddle mentioned, 2 percentage points and 2% are not the same thing! I went to look at the research-article that these numbers were based on but the math was too complicated for me (so I understand your confusion). However one commenter used the additional information about the methodology provided in the appendix to calculate the effect in percentages and they indictate that 25 days after the introduction of the mask mandate the growth rate is almost 30% less than it would have been if this measure had not been taken, and the effect is exponential so by day 30 masks have cut the (expected) new cases by 45% and so on.

The main point is that nor this specific article nor the report you quoted support the point you were trying to make. Instead they both conclude based on the research that masks are effective in lessening the spread of the virus and are therefore recommended.

 

[chuckm]

I haven't gotten even a cold in the past 13 months---the length of time I have warn a mask in public places. I normally got at least one heavy cold per year, with residual coughing that can go on for 3 months afterward.

 

[1111bm]

I haven't gotten even a cold in the past 13 months---the length of time I have warn a mask in public places. I normally got at least one heavy cold per year, with residual coughing that can go on for 3 months afterward.

I was gonna say the exact same thing! I haven't been sick in a year (usually I catch 2-3 minor colds/tonsillitis per year + yes, residual cough/post nasal drip etc.). That alone illustrates how effective mask wearing and social distancing are. Then again, I'm kinda worried if my immune system isn't getting out of practice and if it will be able to cope, should things ever start going back to normal.

 

[ladyjane]

In my view, this discussion is no longer about whether Worlds can and will be safely held, but about other things. Which corona variant is the worst, which country is handling the pandemic in the best (or worst) way, or even which skaters are sticking to the rules in the best way. I even saw a post about whining, and another about vaccination and whether skaters (or other athletes) should be first in line for that. It's all too political for me. I wish for safety, I have trust in the ISU on that score (I saw some strange posts regarding the differences between the Speed skating protocols and the ones regarding Figure Skating passing by), I know what happened with the Challenge Cup in The Netherlands (everybody stuck to the rules and it went well), and last but not least: I am happy that there is going to be a Worlds. Yes, I also worry about safety measures, about flights, all those things. But I'm still pleased that it's happening. I don't like country bashing (those terrible Russians! Sarcasm), I don't like it when others put their own countries' measures on high and look down on others who handled it differently (the difficulty more often than not is not the same) and I think all skaters and their coaches will stick to the rules. Is there a risk? Yes, there is. There are always going to be mutations. Nothing new to be honest. But no worse risk than in many other sports (don't get me discussing the continuance of football - a contact sport if ever there was one - just because of the money involved) and life has to go on. Yes, we must be cautious, I'm all for that. I understand the worry. I don't think people are whining when they utter their worries. My turn to be vaccinated will be late (I'm in my fifties and others go first), while I would get that jab rather yesterday than tomorrow, but that's another issue. There will be no spectators, there's compulsory mask wearing, there's a bubble, and there's tests. That's it. Now, can we please just look forward to good skating? And no, I am not thinking anyone is whining or that someone else is taking this serious pandemic frivolously.

 

[karne]

In my view, this discussion is no longer about whether Worlds can and will be safely held, but about other things.

It has always been about other things. It will always be about other things. It could never not be about those things from the moment they said Worlds was going to go ahead in one of the most COVID-irresponsible countries in the Western world. It could never not be about those things from the moment the Russian fed held a banquet without consequences from the ISU.

It was always about those things the minute anyone with concerns was dismissed as whiny and fearful.

 

[pearly]

In my view, this discussion is no longer about whether Worlds can and will be safely held, but about other things. Which corona variant is the worst, which country is handling the pandemic in the best (or worst) way, or even which skaters are sticking to the rules in the best way. I even saw a post about whining, and another about vaccination and whether skaters (or other athletes) should be first in line for that. It's all too political for me. I wish for safety, I have trust in the ISU on that score (I saw some strange posts regarding the differences between the Speed skating protocols and the ones regarding Figure Skating passing by), I know what happened with the Challenge Cup in The Netherlands (everybody stuck to the rules and it went well), and last but not least: I am happy that there is going to be a Worlds. Yes, I also worry about safety measures, about flights, all those things. But I'm still pleased that it's happening. I don't like country bashing (those terrible Russians! Sarcasm), I don't like it when others put their own countries' measures on high and look down on others who handled it differently (the difficulty more often than not is not the same) and I think all skaters and their coaches will stick to the rules. Is there a risk? Yes, there is. There are always going to be mutations. Nothing new to be honest. But no worse risk than in many other sports (don't get me discussing the continuance of football - a contact sport if ever there was one - just because of the money involved) and life has to go on. Yes, we must be cautious, I'm all for that. I understand the worry. I don't think people are whining when they utter their worries. My turn to be vaccinated will be late (I'm in my fifties and others go first), while I would get that jab rather yesterday than tomorrow, but that's another issue. There will be no spectators, there's compulsory mask wearing, there's a bubble, and there's tests. That's it. Now, can we please just look forward to good skating? And no, I am not thinking anyone is whining or that someone else is taking this serious pandemic frivolously.

Did you just read my mind?

I agree with this like 95% (after all the drama and bullying I've seen here and on Twitter, I honestly do not worry about anything. Competing is their job, let them do it. No one's starting petitions to protect their precious me because I need to get to work every day.)

Can't wait for next week, I might watch after all.

 

[Skatesocs]

It was always about those things the minute anyone with concerns was dismissed as whiny and fearful.

And also "drama and bullying".

 

[pearly]

Yeah, I feel there's a difference between "I am concerned and I wouldn't go" and "let's start a petition and also I want to ban the following countries from attending."

 

[brakes]