2022 Worlds Pre-Game Chat

[lariko]

I don't think you look at Gubanova, Schizas or Kurakova as you have Olga, Loeana, the Koreans, the Americans, the Japanese before you even look at these ladies who would be thrilled to be in the top 10.

Both Gubanova and Kurakova outscored Mikutina. Kurakova did it after a disaster short. Chen lost to both Gubanova and Kurakova, Bell was over-scored by a lot to barely beat both of them, when Gubanova was underscored. From Japanese, only 2 out of three made it ahead of them. Hendrickx is unstable and You's 3A is not getting much recognition.

 

[Amer]

Fingers crossed that Kurakova and Hendrickx do well.

 

[elektra blue]

So, I basically gave up on trying to understand figure skating scoring balance, so I was wondering if someone who understand the current preferences can tell me if any of the following can happen with a 50% or higher probability?

1. Uno winning gold
2. Grassl on the podium
3. Gubanova in top 6
4. Schizas in top 6
5. Kurakova on the podium
6. You on the podium
7. Smart/Diaz on the podium

Will appreciate this very much.

1: stranger things have happened, is Nathan Chen going? if yes then not a chance
2: of course he will! my baby boy is the best of the best of the best!!!!!! jokes aside i don't think he can, he has to leave the carrots field and get better pcs. top 5 is more likely.
3: it's a matter of pcs
4: if she skates like at the team event i don't see why not, but can she? also others have to bomb
5: there's not gonna happen. she should start rotate her jump and other should bomb
6: very likely, she's one fo the favourites for a bronze a this point, but she has to be clean.
7: there's not gonna happen either, a lot of teams are ahead of them

 

[YuBluByMe]

So, I basically gave up on trying to understand figure skating scoring balance, so I was wondering if someone who understand the current preferences can tell me if any of the following can happen with a 50% or higher probability?

1. Uno winning gold
2. Grassl on the podium
3. Gubanova in top 6
4. Schizas in top 6
5. Kurakova on the podium
6. You on the podium
7. Smart/Diaz on the podium

Will appreciate this very much.

I know a few others have already answered, but I figure one more opinion couldn’t hurt.

1. The thing about Uno is that it’s his tech that keeps him from the top of the podium, not his PCS. He’s usually messy in both programs, not just the free. If he skates his SP like he did in the team event (the cleanest he’s ever been in the SP) and skates a cleanish FS, then he can beat an off-form Nathan Chen, who will be the obvious favorite. But Uno hasn’t skated a cleanish free in years. I think the last time was 2019 4CC. Chen’s not going to have the same fire in him as he just won Olympic Gold, though and would have lost a lot of motivation. I can see him making mistakes. Kagiyama’s still hungry, but Uno can beat Kagiyama on BV and slightly higher PCS, but again, he needs to be clean. Do I think’ll it happen? No.

2. I can see this happening. Grassl’s coming off a Silver at Euros and a top 10 finish at the Olympics. So he’s coming into Worlds as the top European man. He’s consistent, and his PCS has actually been rising. I think he’ll get around 42/85 PCS at Worlds which isn’t bad at all. He deservedly gets low GOES on his jumps and that’s actually what’s holding him down more than anything. But I do think he, along with Cha, is the skater most likely to get on the podium if the top guys make mistakes.

Botton line: Uno winning gold and Grassl getting on the podium is very unlikely to happen. Uno’s the top man that Grassl is the most likely to beat.

3. Yeah can definitely happen. She should have made top 10 at the Olympics and with the Missing Three she could definitely make top 6. On paper, beating one Japanese and one American should do the trick, but then there’s Hendrickx. She’s relying on a few skaters to make mistakes but she’s consistent. I can see her making top 6 with two clean skates and mistakes from others.

4. If she skates like she did at the team event, she’ll beat Gubanova. But she’s also relying on mistakes from others. Bottom line: It is highly unlikely that both Gubanova and Schizas will make top 6. Even without the Missing Three, the field is too deep for that.

5. …not happening.

6. Most realstic thing on your list. You Young is definitely a podium contender. Her 3A was never good (telegraphing with long entry and almost always UR), and she has issues with UR on the back-half of her combos too. But when she’s on, she’s on. If she’s clean in both programs, her chances of making the podium are high. I don’t think a clean Kawabe or a clean Liu would beat her if she’s also clean.

7. Heh, I thought you were asking about a pairs team so I’m keeping my mouth shut.

 

[slider11]

So if Russia and Belarus are not permitted to compete at the 2022 Worlds how does that affect the number of teams permitted to compete in 2023?

 

[skatingiscool]

I don't want no shenanigans nohow from nobody. Just the idea infuriates me -- I mean, look at the way it made me lose my grammar!

Sorry to say I agree about Mariah. She's had some nice performances at US nats but doesn't hold up on the world stage, sadly. And how the bleep did she get better scores for her FS than Gubanova??? It is a puzzlement...

Another puzzlement for me. Why both Mariah and Leona have higher Free Skate scores 136 than Kim 134? Kim nailed all the jumps. In terms of artistry, I think Kim is on par with Mariah and Leona.

 

[figureskatingandrainbows]

Another puzzlement for me. Why both Mariah and Leona have higher Free Skate scores 136 than Kim 134? Kim nailed all the jumps. In terms of artistry, I think Kim is on par with Mariah and Leona.

Yelim isn't always the strongest performer, but she was on at rhe Olympics and is someone who I will say wuzrobbed

 

[Giu]

Okay, thank you. I will skip the Worlds then.

Why?

Your favorites may not podium but they're still going to perform, if you really like them then it’s worth watching Worlds in my opinion

 

[lariko]

Why?

Your favorites may not podium but they're still going to perform, if you really like them then it’s worth watching Worlds in my opinion

If they don’t even have a 50% chance to get better result than in Olympics, what’s the point? I am too dispirited to watch the same thing unfold again, with no hope for anything I want to happen. I’ll let people who cheer for those athletes who will advance this worlds to cheer happily without raining on their parade. Add all the gloating that will intensify 10-fold, and for me it will just be a unending heartbreak.

Now, with JWC back on the agenda, I will just go back to watching juniors. Seniors are just… not for me this time. Maybe next season if things change and i like my chances to feel happy more and I will also enjoy the fresher programs.

 

[labgoat]

I will be watching to see my favorite skates and skaters again and to see who takes the opportunity to get themselves noticed or rewarded. Curious to see Malinin vs Grassl. I think of past redemptive skates like Yuka Sato's and have decided I don't want to miss them after all. I'm back in the watch party.i would be happy to see some of the skaters who won medals in the team event actually get to wear some hardware. I'd like some redemption skates for Kurakova SP, Piper and Paul FS, and Chock/Bates RD to name a few.

 

[ladyjane]

I'm going to watch too! I would love to see C/B get a medal, see how the pairs work out (will the Japanese get a medal), see the once more interesting women, I'm going to miss some of the men but hey there's going to happen some nice fights there as well. Oh yes! Not to be forgotten: there's a Dutch girl and a Dutch pair entered, and hopefully we'll see Josefin's Free as well.

 

[CellarDweller]

I'm going to be watching as well. I wait each year for the my skating season, so I'll be tuned in.

(I say 'my' because I don't watch all the competitions, I start with the GP, and watch through the WC)

 

[Ruthypegs]

I have a question - the fields for mens/womens/ice dance are pretty much the same (in terms of numbers of competitors this year compared to last year).

However, the fields for the pairs this time is much fewer - 18 pairs teams this year compared to 24 last year. Will six more pairs teams be asked to compete, and if so, how will these be selected?

 

[ladyjane]

The minimum TES? That always counts..

 

[elektra blue]

I'm going to be watching as well. I wait each year for the my skating season, so I'll be tuned in.

(I say 'my' because I don't watch all the competitions, I start with the GP, and watch through the WC)

it wouldn't be the same thing without your gifs

 

[icetug]

However, the fields for the pairs this time is much fewer - 18 pairs teams this year compared to 24 last year. Will six more pairs teams be asked to compete, and if so, how will these be selected?

First, as Ladyjane mentioned, there is the TES minimum. That's why for example no Polish pair competes at Worlds.
Second, there are spots earned at last Worlds. That's why Canada and USA can send only two pairs each while they could send three if not the quota.
After Russia and Belarus are banned and China WD, 7 spots (but in fact 6, as China sends recently only 2 pairs having 3 spots) are unused. France lost one spot comparing to 2021 and Croatian pair retired (actually he retired, she probably is seeking new partner). On the other hand there are two new pairs: Australian and Ukrainian (however I'm not sure they come to Worlds...).

 

[Ruthypegs]

First, as Ladyjane mentioned, there is the TES minimum. That's why for example no Polish pair competes at Worlds.
Second, there are spots earned at last Worlds. That's why Canada and USA can send only two pairs each while they could send three if not the quota.
After Russia and Belarus are banned and China WD, 7 spots (but in fact 6, as China sends recently only 2 pairs having 3 spots) are unused. France lost one spot comparing to 2021 and Croatian pair retired (actually he retired, she probably is seeking new partner). On the other hand there are two new pairs: Australian and Ukrainian (however I'm not sure they come to Worlds...).

Thank you for replying! - so if a pairs team have the TES minimum, they could apply to compete? Or is there some sort of "waiting list" with teams prioritised according to their world standing/ranking?

 

[icetug]

Thank you for replying! - so if a pairs team have the TES minimum, they could apply to compete? Or is there some sort of "waiting list" with teams prioritised according to their world standing/ranking?

This is not Grand Prix so world standing has nothing to do with entering the competition. Each country can send one pair, as long as the pair has the minimum TES. Some countries can send two or three pairs, what depends on the places a pair (or pairs) of this country won at the previous Worlds. It's a bit complicated system of recalculation the places into spots.
When the entries list is announced, the number of spots cannot be increased. If a pair WD, they can be replaced by another pair of the same country (with TES minimum for Worlds), as long as they are on the list as substitute. This is the only change to be done.

 

[lariko]

Botton line: Uno winning gold and Grassl getting on the podium is very unlikely to happen. Uno’s the top man that Grassl is the most likely to beat.

Heh, if that happens, I will definitely watch the replay of men’s.

 

[dcr]

This is not Grand Prix so world standing has nothing to do with entering the competition. Each country can send one pair, as long as the pair has the minimum TES. Some countries can send two or three pairs, what depends on the places a pair (or pairs) of this country won at the previous Worlds. It's a bit complicated system of recalculation the places into spots.
When the entries list is announced, the number of spots cannot be increased. If a pair WD, they can be replaced by another pair of the same country (with TES minimum for Worlds), as long as they are on the list as substitute. This is the only change to be done.

So what will be the quota for Russia or China for 2023 Worlds if they don't have any skaters competing at this year's worlds? Will it go back yo 1 for each discipline (with TES minimum for Worlds)?