With one event remaining, the qualification picture looks a lot clearer, but as always, NHK will decide several skaters' fates as to whether or not they qualify for the Final. A huge shoutout to Jackie Wong, whose
article was very helpful for making this post!
MEN
Qualified:
- Adam Siao Him Fa (30)
- Ilia Malinin (28)
- Kao Miura (28)
Kevin Aymoz (24) is the next-highest on the list. He is not officially qualified - there is one very unlikely scenario that sees him out of the Final - but it is quite likely that we will see him in Beijing. For him to not qualify, Lukas Britschgi or Nika Egadze would need to win, Yuma to be second with a score of 255.99 or higher, and Shoma third with a score of 249.15 or higher. That is the only way that Kevin can fail to qualify. If only two men qualify at NHK, he is in for sure.
Shun Sato (24) needs disaster to qualify. He lost out on the tiebreak to Kevin, and thus is currently 5th in the standings. If Shoma were to win, Lukas/Nika were second, and Yuma 3rd or lower, Shun would get in. Or, if Yuma were to win, Lukas/Nika/anyone but Shoma were second, and Shoma 3rd or lower with a score of 240.85 or lower, then Shun would qualify.
Sota Yamamoto (20) is not going to qualify unless NHK gets nuked, despite winning his first event. Yay men.
Shoma Uno (13) just needs a bronze with a score of above 240.86, which would put him ahead of Shun unless Nika/Lukas wins and Yuma is second with a higher combined score than Shoma has. In that case, Shoma will need to score above a 249.14 to qualify above Kevin, which will definitively see him in. A silver or gold will mean automatic qualification.
Yuma Kagiyama (11) is in a bit more of a pickle, but he is going back to a two-quad SP layout that if skated cleanly will give him a buffer over his main threats. He needs silver - a bronze will not be enough - with a score of 247.71 or higher to put him above Shun, which will guarantee qualification unless Lukas/Nika wins and Shoma is 3rd but scores high enough to qualify. In that case, Yuma will need to score 255.99 or higher to pass Kevin and ensure qualification.
Nika Egadze and
Lukas Britschgi are in a similar situation. They both earned fourth place at their first GP outing, and thus would theoretically qualify if they won. It's worth noting that Lukas scored 26 points higher than Nika at their first GP outing, and Gabriele Frangipani scored 14 points above Nika's SkAm score at CoC. That makes it an uphill battle for Nika. Lukas was ten points back of Yuma at GPdeF, and competed just a few days ago at the Warsaw Cup. He scored a PB SP there, but struggled in the FS to only score a 246.22. The travel and recent competitions could make it a struggle for him to qualify as well. Beyond those two,
Gabriele Frangipani and
Camden Pulkinen could each theoretically have a shot if they won, but no one else - including Yuma, Shoma, Lukas, and Nika - could qualify.
WOMEN
Qualified:
- Kaori Sakamoto (30)
- Isabeau Levito (28)
- Loena Hendrickx (26)
- Hana Yoshida (24)
Things get very complicated very fast with the women. We have two spots open, which will likely be fought over between three women:
Rion Sumiyoshi (24) who is relying on only one woman to qualify at NHK,
Haein Lee (9) who will need a gold medal, and
Nina Pinzarrone (13) who just needs a silver medal or bronze with a score of 189.18 or higher to qualify. If Haein wins and Nina is second with the high-enough score, Rion will have to stay at home. Haein may be able to qualify with silver if she scores above Chaeyeon (would need a 189.18 or higher) and Nina does not qualify. This is complicated by the return of
Mai Mihara, who cannot qualify for the Final as she withdrew from CoC with injury. If she is in top form, she could easily win here and cause chaos. We also have
Yelim Kim (5), the defending champion from last year. Her placement at CoC means she will not qualify for the Final, but if she could have a return to the form she was in last year, she could cause a massive upset. The same applies to
Anastasiia Gubanova (5), who like Yelim is unable to qualify but absolutely has podium potential. And, of course,
Wakaba Higuchi (7) and
Lindsay Thorngren (7) are also unable to qualify unless they win and score above Chaeyeon, and Haein/Nina both do not qualify, but could absolutely be podium spoilers as well. If we based the scores on raw SB scores, Nina would win the event, with Haein in second but less than four points ahead of a challenging group that includes Wakaba, Lindsay Thorngren, Yelim, and Anastasiia. With no clear favourites, but only two women in the running for a spot at NHK, this will be a fascinating event.
Chaeyeon Kim (22) is relying on chaos to happen and Nina and Haein to not qualify for the Final. If that happens, she has a chance to make it into the Final so long as Wakaba or Lindsay do not win.