A Case for Mirai Nagasu

[ice coverage]

Don't know if someone pointed it out, but 4CC is skaters from North America, Australia, Asia, and Africa. Not The Americas implying South America.

Four Continents is for skaters from South America -- as well as for skaters from Africa.

Argentina and Brazil -- as well as South Africa -- are on the official ISU list of members participating in Four Continents.

http://static.isu.org/media/378427/2033-entries-isu-championships-2017.pdf (page 5)​

 

[karne]

This is my personal opinion, obviously, but I would have sent Jason over Grant. Jason tried to petition onto the team, he was the National Champion from the previous year, and he in general scores much better with the International judges than Grant does. Max has at least gotten GP medals.

Jason was also not back on the ice until a week after Nationals, which was a countdown of seven weeks until Worlds. He would not have been ready.

Grant was not originally named to the team, if you'll recall. Nathan was. Then Nathan got hurt, and Grant took his place.

The three US men skated their hearts out in Boston and did their best. It was not their fault that the shoddy scoring of others meant that they fell foul of the stupidity that saw them all finish in the top 10 but still lose the third spot.

 

[moriel]

Four Continents is for skaters from South America -- as well as for skaters from Africa.

Argentina and Brazil -- as well as South Africa -- are on the official ISU list of members participating in Four Continents.

http://static.isu.org/media/378427/2033-entries-isu-championships-2017.pdf (page 5)​

Its just that those countries don't have many skaters, and even less skaters who are able to go through the min TES cut

 

[Mathman]

4 Continents is based on the five Olympic rings. In the Olympics (and I think that this is usual in Europe generally), North and South America are not considered as two separate continents. (But Europe and Asia are. )

The five rings stand for Europe, Asia, The Americas, Africa, and Australia/Oceana.

Something like that. Poor Antarctica.

 

[narcissa]

The three US men skated their hearts out in Boston and did their best. It was not their fault that the shoddy scoring of others meant that they fell foul of the stupidity that saw them all finish in the top 10 but still lose the third spot.

Who was scored shoddily ... ?

 

[ice coverage]

Its just that those countries don't have many skaters, and even less skaters who are able to go through the min TES cut

Beside the point.

I was just fact-checking sammyott's well-intentioned fact-checking of what is written in the essay in the OP.

 

[karne]

Who was scored shoddily ... ?

- Max's FS PCS was 79, two points lower than his PB (81), in spite of his FS being his best performance of it ever, and in spite of everyone else's PCS going up.

- Uno had a sloppy free skate that was massively overscored.

- Chan was also massively overscored for a very sloppy free skate.

 

[Mathman]

I don't think that Jason had a solid case in his petition last year. The wording in the USFSA by-laws refers to "dominant skaters" who are unable to compete at Nationals because of illness or injury. This was traditionally interpreted to mean skaters like Michelle Kwan, Nancy Kerrigan, or Todd Eldridge. It doesn't mean someone who is considered somewhat more likely than someone else to score a little higher, maybe.

Although, I have to admit that the old standards have been pushed aside by a new way of thinking. As shown, for instance, by U.S. pairs this year.

By the way, Rippn, Aaron and Hochstein all gave the skates of their lives.

 

[ssffww]

Valid point, but I actually DON'T think what happened in 2014 was unfair or wrong. I am a Mirai fan, but I completely support the decision they made then and knew that Ashley was the best choice over Mirai and that Polina was an investment in the future. So I'm not guilty of any hypocrisy on that end.

Back to the original question. Are there any fundamental holes or flaws in the article itself for sending Mirai over Mariah or Karen?

Totally agree. I thought sending Ashley over Mirai in 2014 was the right decision. I would also have supported Mirai over Karen or Mariah this year had the team not already been announced. Mirai is a different skater that she was in 2014. I wish going forward that the USFSA would wait until after 4CC to announce World team.

 

[Mathman]

Back to the original question. Are there any fundamental holes or flaws in the article itself for sending Mirai over Mariah or Karen?

Your main argument is: IF increasing the odds of gaining three spots overwhelms all other considerations, THEN we ought to send Mirai.

I thought that you argued that position forcefully (although you will not get 100% agreement from all readers, of course).

You still. however, have to establish the IF part. Here is the paragraph in your article that does so. (Actually, it is the last sentence that does so.)

Of course, reevaluating international team assignments after they have already been named would be unprecedented for the USFSA. The argument against it as unsportsmanlike and unfair to the athlete is valid. But in a sport like figure skating, so often condemned for its occupation with the outdated and archaic — beauty standards, gender roles, policking — setting a precedent is a welcome change. Human achievement and fair play are both fundamental tenets of competition, but in a field where, even if results aren’t everything, they sure feel like it, performance, not feelings, must take priority.

Not everyone will agree. I do not, for instance. I think that the question of sportsmanship and fairness is more than merely valid. I think that it sweeps all before it. (YMMD.)

So some people will still disagree with your conclusion however well-argued the implication may be.

Anyway, please share with us the finished article when it comes out, OK?

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I do not, for instance. I think that the question of sportsmanship and fairness is more than merely valid. I think that it sweeps all before it. (YMMD.)

I agree that fairness and USFSA objectives should be weighed, perhaps with a bit extra weight on fairness. I honestly think 4CC is a bad data point to use for the team selection when the team has already been selected. There are a million reasons why Karen and Mariah might not have intended to peak for this event. Everyone needed to be at their best at Nationals; Karen was, Mirai wasn't. It's pretty clear now that, had Mirai not spent so much of her training time on the 3A and hyping up her attempt, she might have won Nationals. However, had 4CC been a high-stakes event, she may have bombed here, too; we'll never know. We know the team, and I think there is no controversy when we consider the data points the USFSA had at the time of selection.

 

[essence_of_soy]

Any decision at this stage would be tough.

In 2014, Mirai skated better than Wagner at US Nationals, only to be bumped for a skater with a better international track record. It would be so ironic if Karen were replaced with Mirai for the same reason.

Making these choices for the sake of 'the team' is so difficult. Prior to 1997, we probably wouldn't even be having this conversation. If a skater made the podium, only then would three skaters from that country go to the World Championships the following year.

I only have to remember how Liam Firus dutifully stepped down last year so that Nam Nguyen could potentially earn Canada three spots for 2017 in Boston (along with Patrick Chan, whom Skate Canada assumed would make the podium after a great win at Four Continents).

Nam had finished 5th at the 2015 World Championships, but 4th at the 2016 Canadian Championships. In Boston, he didn't even make the free - skating final after a nightmare short program. Chan skated badly (for him) and finished 5th.

There is no way of predicting the outcome in advance, no matter who goes.

I only hope the ladies' event in Helsinki isn't a replay of 1993 in Prague, when Tonia Kwaitkowski, Lisa Ervin and Nancy Kerrigan let nerves get the better of them.

 

[Sasha'sSpins]

Don't know if someone pointed it out, but 4CC is skaters from North America, Australia, Asia, and Africa. Not The Americas implying South America.

That is not correct. The 'Four Continents' are comprised of the Americas (the ISU lumps North and South together), Asia, Africa, and Oceania. Australia is considered as part of Oceania. North and South America are technically two separate continents but not for the ISU's purposes. Also, I believe some skaters from South America have skated at 4CCs. At least one from Argentina IIRC.

 

[moonvine]

Totally agree. I thought sending Ashley over Mirai in 2014 was the right decision. I would also have supported Mirai over Karen or Mariah this year had the team not already been announced. Mirai is a different skater that she was in 2014. I wish going forward that the USFSA would wait until after 4CC to announce World team.

Me too. They announce it far too early IMHO.

 

[moonvine]

I agree that fairness and USFSA objectives should be weighed, perhaps with a bit extra weight on fairness. I honestly think 4CC is a bad data point to use for the team selection when the team has already been selected. There are a million reasons why Karen and Mariah might not have intended to peak for this event. Everyone needed to be at their best at Nationals; Karen was, Mirai wasn't. It's pretty clear now that, had Mirai not spent so much of her training time on the 3A and hyping up her attempt, she might have won Nationals. However, had 4CC been a high-stakes event, she may have bombed here, too; we'll never know. We know the team, and I think there is no controversy when we consider the data points the USFSA had at the time of selection.

So if Karen was at her best at Nationals, wouldn't it stand to reason she will not be at her best at Worlds? I hope she proves me wrong and slays it, by the way.

 

[Skater Boy]

Well I guess SK/K are dominant skater then?????

 

[Skater Boy]

Any decision at this stage would be tough.

In 2014, Mirai skated better than Wagner at US Nationals, only to be bumped for a skater with a better international track record. It would be so ironic if Karen were replaced with Mirai for the same reason.

Making these choices for the sake of 'the team' is so difficult. Prior to 1997, we probably wouldn't even be having this conversation. If a skater made the podium, only then would three skaters from that country go to the World Championships the following year.

I only have to remember how Liam Firus dutifully stepped down last year so that Nam Nguyen could potentially earn Canada three spots for 2017 in Boston (along with Patrick Chan, whom Skate Canada assumed would make the podium after a great win at Four Continents).

Nam had finished 5th at the 2015 World Championships, but 4th at the 2016 Canadian Championships. In Boston, he didn't even make the free - skating final after a nightmare short program. Chan skated badly (for him) and finished 5th.

There is no way of predicting the outcome in advance, no matter who goes.

I only hope the ladies' event in Helsinki isn't a replay of 1993 in Prague, when Tonia Kwaitkowski, Lisa Ervin and Nancy Kerrigan let nerves get the better of them.

I don't think Nam is a good example. Let's face it the boy grew so enormously in such a short period of time. Just shocking to see him now and how tall he got. Puberty is killing his skating.

 

[Skater Boy]

The fact remains that unless someone withdraws, Mirai is not going to Worlds.

correct or a huge wack like Nancy Kerrigan could do it too.

 

[Ares]

I don't think that Jason had a solid case in his petition last year. The wording in the USFSA by-laws refers to "dominant skaters" who are unable to compete at Nationals because of illness or injury. This was traditionally interpreted to mean skaters like Michelle Kwan, Nancy Kerrigan, or Todd Eldridge. It doesn't mean someone who is considered somewhat more likely than someone else to score a little higher, maybe.

Although, I have to admit that the old standards have been pushed aside by a new way of thinking. As shown, for instance, by U.S. pairs this year.

By the way, Rippn, Aaron and Hochstein all gave the skates of their lives.

Well Scimeca / Knierim could be interpreted as dominant skaters too by some.

 

[Mathman]

Well Scimeca / Knierim could be interpreted as dominant skaters too by some.

Nothing against Alexa and Chris, but I think it is a stretch to call them "dominant." "The best we have in a weak field," maybe. In their career they have won the Cup of Nice, the U.S. Classic B, the Ice Challenge B, and the 2015 U.S. Championship, in addition to high finishes in a few other events such as 4CCs.

Todd Eldredge is a better example of what has traditionally been regarded as "a dominant skater." He medalled at the World Championship 5 times (out of five attempts), winning the world championship in 1996. He won the U.S. Championship 4 times and Skate America 4 times.

OK, he wasn't "dominant" in quite the same sense that, say, Evgeny Plushenko was dominant. Still, in the past the USFSA was pretty stingy with applying this designation.

That said, go S&K!