I was trying to ask 'How many hours should someone invest into figure skating to determine if there's really something there?'
And the reason I ask this is because it seems pretty obvious that the only way my kid is going to be successful in skating is to greatly reduce his school time
It depends how you define "successful."
Do you define it by competition results?
By getting to go to Nationals, at least at lower levels? (As a boy, if he takes up pairs, it will almost be guaranteed that he would get there most years just because of numbers. But pairs is a whole other level of expense and danger. Even in singles, his chances are much much higher as a boy than they would be for a girl with the same talent level.)
By jumps landed, regardless of results?
By quality of basic skating and performance quality?
By having a sense of accomplishment? Passing all his tests? Having fun all along the way?
You can't predict any of that at such a young age, because there are too many different variables. If you set goals of having fun and feeling accomplished, you can adjust the time commitment each year, or more often, in response to how his skating is going and how much he's enjoying it.
I think we can say that 2 hours a week of ice time would not get him to Nationals, and 20 hours a week is not necessary at this point. (If he gets the point of working on double axels and triples and trying to qualify, you could reevaluate then.)
Finding the right schedule for you and your family is something you have to work out yourselves -- your situation is not anyone else's, your kid is not anyone else's kid.
If you're looking to estimate talent level, I would reiterate that you should look at the quality of the basic skating, not just on what jumps are mastered when -- it's harder to measure, but rate of passing MITF tests and passing them with higher than the minimum scores would be a good indication. When you get to IJS levels, the program component scores, compared to other skaters at that level, will also tell you a lot.
And also what others have posted: when a skater first lands each jump is less important than the quality of the jumps.
A few have said essentially answered that question and they've said things like:
- Give it as many hours as it takes to either learn the double axel or quit
- Give it as many hours as it takes to stay fun
- Give it as many hours as you can afford (and by afford, that includes taking out loans)
- There's just no way to answer; too many variables
Honestly, I did not expect that these would be the answers, except for the 'just let him skate' response.
What did you expect?