As for sampling data, this is indeed a problem. But we do know tha
t USFSA is trying to collect data. For instance, after my skater did the first MITF test they emailed us a survey. The questions included
how long as the skater been skating, how long did they practice on ice for the test, how much off ice time was spent in preparation, how many times did they take the test before passing, etc. So the first steps in getting better data are beginning - the USFSA is collecting data in the form of self selected, self reported data, which though that kind of data has errors, is a great first step in getting more accurate information relating to test track and competitive skaters. (Obv it won't include ISI skaters or skaters who are purely recreational and never register for tests).
2) Even if the calculations are correct, we don't know if there is any bias in the sampling (collection of data). Did they unintentionally omit a relevant segment of the population (e.g. rural areas or kids in ISI)? We don't know how this data was gathered and whether we have a significant sample bias.
As already stated it does omit skaters who are recreational skaters because they usually never reach the higher levels.
It's true that this was likely written by one coach after coaching for many years with input from other coaches. The fact that it closely resembles the chart in
Skating Ahead of the Curve, written by a long time coach and choreographer suggests that these charts are more based on a handful of people's experience rather than raw data collected. BUT that doesn't mean it isn't valuable. Clearly we all value the information from our coaches. Would any serious skater even trust a coach who simply said something similar to what's been said in this thread, "There's no knowing the direction this skater will go and I have zero idea about the possible outcomes." No, we would not. We would trust a coach who said, "Well I think this skater has XY and Z but only time will tell if she has AB and C so I recommend a training schedule of MNO and a competition schedule of Q with skates and blades of R and P."
3) EVEN IF we assume there are no problems with #1 and #2, you have to ask yourself if "averages" are giving you any useful information?
For useful information, gkelly answered that here:
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...lls-averages&p=1871346&viewfull=1#post1871346
Also, if a skater seems to be progressing at the rate indicated by the chart (not necessarily the specific hours, but
the rate - where a double takes about twice as long to acquire as a single and a triple takes three times as long*) but then seems to plateau for an unusually long period of time, a good coach would probably start looking for explanations - is there an underlying injury? is it time for new bigger or better boots or blades? do we need to take ballet lessons? is it time to add more flexibility or strength training to off ice practice? is there an emotional challenge?
For parents, I pointed out some uses in this post:
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...lls-averages&p=1870454&viewfull=1#post1870454
Is the skater male or female? At what age did the skater start? Then you need to factor in the coach's ability but also the skaters natural talent and drive.
The article that accompanies the chart clearly states there are many factors.
As for male vs female, unfortunately I think there's really a data problem here since so few boys/men figure skate for long periods. I hear all kinds of sex/gender claims at the rink and here online that simply do not make sense from a statistical perspective. For instance, people are always attributing boy's successes to gender. But when boys struggle they don't mention gender at all. And all in all, there's more struggle. It simply doesn't add up or pass the sniff test.
And when are those averages taken? When the skater first landed the jump or when the jump is landed and fully clean?
It clearly says that it's when the jump is landed and fully clean.
It says: "The jumps on this chart are assumed to be fully rotated, performed correctly, and of a fairly consistent quality. The middle of the chart is a general schedule of skill acquisition based on total training volume shown in hours. [This chart] is meant to be a very general frame of reference and not a hard and fast schedule."
If you took real data, there are two ways to do the analysis, which is at each stage, ask each skater who can do an axel how long it took for them to do an axel, then each skater who can do a double axel how long it took for them to get that - in which case, it would be two totally different populations, and it could very well be that the average single axel acquisition time is LONGER than the average double axel acquisition time.
I agree that " it could very well be that the average single axel acquisition time is LONGER than the average double axel acquisition time." But IF that's the case, then that's even more reason to think that if a skater struggles to learn single axel then that skater will likely struggle more or give up learning the double axel. So there's utility there - if a skater is way behind the rate suggested by the chart, then it's likely they should pursue recreational skating and not competitive skating OR they need a better coach, better skates, more off ice training etc.
The other methodology, which i think they're trying to simulate here, is find the skaters who already achieved triples/quads and ask them how long it took them to get each step.
*Agreed. The smooth progression is very clearly a lack of data or some sort of bias. But
there is still plenty of utility in ideas that aren't perfectly correct - refer to Newton's Laws.
But given that it kicks out every other skater who never got to that level, this is why the other posters are all saying that if your skater is just on single axel, and you're wondering if they're headed to nationals in their future, it's not going to be that relevant.
Obviously, that specific outcome can't be accurately predicted. BUT does anyone here really believe that at the stage of single axel you can't get a decent idea of whether or not this is going to be competitive vs recreational?
Edit to add: The biggest issue for me as a parent is that early specialization is REQUIRED for big success in figure skating but early specialization at sports results in SIGNIFICANT risks. So as a parent it's crucial to try to evaluate whether or not my skater's dreams of success are realistic. I want to develop this little human. But my athletic goals for my skater (to enjoy sport, to find lifelong fitness, to be healthy) seem to be at utter odds with my skater's chosen sport. My skater is super-passionate about this sport and my skater has a challenging personality that makes it difficult to redirect into activities for which he is not passionate. If he were progressing at a rate that suggested his goals were utterly unachievable, I would put more effort into diversifying his extracurriculars.