American Championships: Predictions Game Round 5

[Mrs. P]

I thought it started at 4 EST? Am I wrong??

You're right 4:10 p.m. EST. Must've been thinking about something else...

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

When are these due by? the 8th or 9th or something?

The pairs program starts at 2 p.m. EST on Jan. 9, so I guess an hour before that?

I thought it started at 4 EST? Am I wrong??

You're right 4:10 p.m. EST. Must've been thinking about something else...

Thank you all for clearing this up. I didn't know what the schedule was until there now, as the timetable wasn't up at the time I posted the lists of entries.

But, I've now added a link for the timetable to the first post.

Thank you again

CaroLiza_fan

 

[YesWay]

Ladies
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Gracie Gold
3. Samantha Cesario
4. Mirai Nagasu
5. Polina Edmunds

6. Christina Gao

Men
1. Jason Brown
2. Adam Rippon
3. Max Aaron
4. Stephen Carriere
5. Richard Dornbush

6. Jeremy Abbott

Pairs
1. Caydee Denney / John Coughlin
2. Marissa Castelli / Simon Shnapir
3. Felicia Zhang / Nathan Bartholomay
4. Alexa Scimeca / Chris Knierim
5. Haven Denney / Brandon Frazier

6. Lindsay Davis / Rockne Brubaker

Dance
1. Meryl Davis / Charlie White
2. Madison Chock / Evan Bates
3. Maia Shibutani / Alex Shibutani
4. Madison Hubbell / Zachary Donohue
5. Alexandra Aldridge / Daniel Eaton

6. Alissandra Aronow / Collin Brubaker

 

[Mrs. P]

Thank you all for clearing this up. I didn't know what the schedule was until there now, as the timetable wasn't up at the time I posted the lists of entries.

But, I've now added a link for the timetable to the first post.

Thank you again

CaroLiza_fan

Slight correction....the first competition at Nationals is Pairs, not Ice Dance.

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

Slight correction....the first competition at Nationals is Pairs, not Ice Dance.

Sorry about that. My mistake. I must of forgotten what I had read in the short time it took me to go from one window to the other! (Not an unusual occurrance!!! )

What would I do without you, Mrs. P? You have been totally invaluable for pointing me towards nearly all the information to do with these particular Nationals!

Thank you so much!!!

CaroLiza_fan

 

[mirai4life]

heheh

1. Mirai Nagasu - I look like a troll but idc. She's training in Japan, so hopefully we will see an improved Mirai.
2. Christina Gao - Idk, i feel that she's going to peak right here at this moment.
3. Ashley Wager - I think she won't really live up to all the hypes.
4. Gracie Gold - I'm predicting a lot of costly mistakes and falls.
5. Samantha Cesario - I think she will do well, but not enough to battle the more experienced ladies at this moment.

 

[tulosai]

Ok I am doing it... lol. Lots of alts because I'm not coming back before the competition (probably) to this thread but i doubt there will be any w/d in any case.

Ladies
1. Wagner
2. Gold
3. Agnes Z. Watch the judges make it so.
4. Mirai
5. Gao. At this point she's cursed.
6/alt Cesario
7/alt Hicks
8/alt Polina Edmunds.

Pairs
1. Denny/Coughlin. Barf. barf. barf.
2. Castelli/Shnapir
3. Scimeca/Kneirim
4. Zhang/Bartholomy
5. Denney/Fraizer
6/alt Dolan/Spirnoff
7/alt Davis/Brubaker

Dance
1. Davis/White
2. Shibs
3. Hubble/Donahue (MAKE IT SO)
4. Chock/Bates (bold guess/wish/hope, I know)
5. Aldridge/Eaton
6. Lynn & Logan

Men umm like I know??
1. Adam Rippon
2. Max Aaron
3. Jeremy Abbott (I still kind of believe)
4. Joshua Farris
5. Jason Brown
6/alt Richard Dornbush
7/alt Miner

 

[FSGMT]

Here I am...
MEN
1) Adam Rippon
2) Max Aaron
3) Jason Brown
4) Jeremy Abbott
5) Joshua Farris
alt. Dornbush

LADIES
1) Ashley Wagner
2) Gracie Gold
3) Mirai Nagasu (hope hope hope)
4) Christina Gao (please have a great comeback!)
5) samantha Cesario
alt. Zawadzki (as long as she doesn't skate a clean SP: if she does it she's on the podium, regardless of the meltdown in the FS)

PAIRS
1) Denney/Coughlin
2) Castelli/Shnapir
3) Scimeca/Knierim
4) Zhang/Bartolomay
5) Denney/Frazier
alt. Davis/Brubacker

ICE DANCE
1) Davis/White
2) Chock/Bates
3) Shibs
4) Hubbell/Donohue
5) Kriengkrairut/Giulietti-Schmit
alt. Aldridge/Eaton

 

[ForeverFish]

It's probably too late for me to play for points, but here's my take anyway:

Ladies:
1. Wagner ... almost no question. She's been totally on all season.
2. Gold ... she wasn't as successful on the GP as expected, but she's a dark-horse medal contender in Sochi.
3. Zawadzki ... third time's the charm? Clean SP = Agnes 2014. Guaranteed.
4. Gao (alt) ... God help this girl get on the podium! I don't think it'll be enough to make the team, though.
5. Cesario (alt) ... she did well on the GP, but lacks technical difficulty. Has she ditched the 3Lo-3Lo yet?
6. Nagasu (alt) ... I think she's going to put in a good effort, but the judges have mostly given up on her.

Men:
1. Aaron ... if his quads are intact.
2. Rippon ... I can't believe I'm saying this, but he's been pretty amazing so far.
3. Abbott (alt) ... breaks my heart, but without a quad, I don't see him making the team.
4. Brown (alt) ... after his bronze at TEB, what are the judges waiting for?
5. Farris (alt) ... has the technical difficulty to challenge for a spot, but may or may not land all of his jumps.
6. Dornbush (alt) ... eh. He has the jumps, but not much else.

Pairs (I don't watch enough pairs skating to give thought-out reasons):
1. Denney/Coughlin
2. Castelli/Shnapir
3. Scimeca/Knierim (alt)
4. Zhang/Bartolomay (alt)
5. Denney/Frazier (alt)

Ice Dance:
1. Davis/White ... unless they forget to show up.
2. Chock/Bates ... have been brilliant this season.
3. Shibutani/Shibutani ... crowd favorites and Zoueva's pupils. I have a soft spot for their Michael Jackson FD.
4. Hubbell/Donohue (alt) ... with her recent injury, I can't see them overtaking the Shibs.
5. Kriengkrairut/Giuletti-Schmit (alt) ... trying to break through, but they probably won't get to go to Sochi.

 

[96skiluvr]

Ladies:
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Gracie Gold (she'll probably make a ton of mistakes, but be propped up anyways)
3. Samantha Cesario
4. Agnes Zawadzki
5. Christina Gao
6. Mirai Nagasu
7. Polina Edmunds
8. Courtney Hicks

Men:
1. Adam Rippon (going out on a limb, I know)
2. Jason Brown
3. Max Aaron
4. Jeremy Abbott
5. Ross Miner (home court advantage)
6. Joshua Farris

Pairs:
1. Denney/Coughlin
2. Castelli/Shnapir
3. Scimeca/Knierim (although I would love for them to win)
4. Donlan/Speroff
5. Zhang/Bartholomay
6. Deney/Frazier
7. Kayne/O'Shea
8. Davis/Brubaker

Dance:
1. Davis/White (duhhh)
2. Shibutani/Shibutani
3. Chock/Bates
4. Hubbell/Donohue
5. Kriengkrairut/Giulietti-Schmitt
6. Aldridge/Eaton
7. Arronow/Brubaker

 

[sweetskates1]

Adam Rippon - will surprise at nationals
Jeremy Abbott - will surprise
Jason Brown - will be in the top
Joshua Farris - enough talent and adequate support to skate well
Max Aaron - stressed, will not do well
Ross Miner - failure at nationals

Ashley Wagner - two beautiful skates will ensure she wins
Mirai Nagasu - amazing skates that will be labelled a huge comeback - prelude to Olympics
Gracie Gold - pressure will lead to falls and mistakes
Samantha Cesario - pressure and lack of support
Christina Gao - too much pressure
Agnes Zawadski - too little support from fed/fans

Davis/White - WR, NR in individual competition scores and overall score - improved and perfect programs with more fluidity - prelude to OGM hopefully
Shibutani/Shibutani - great improvement and nice scores
Hubbell/Donohue - chemistry with each other
Chock/Bates - not good enough
Aldridge/Eaton - nice skates and great impressions
Kiriengkrairut/Giulietti-Schmitt - not good enough again, split or retirement

Denney/Coughlin - impressive, massive scores
Scimeca/Knierim - great outings for them
Donlan/Speroff - great outings for them
Castelli/Shnapir - if they cannot communicate or control the pressure - implosion
Zhang/Bartholomay - okay, should think about a coaching change
Deney/Frazier - okay, should think about a change in technique/program style

 

[IleK]

Here is a top of the most interesting US ladies in my opinion. It is not a prediction, but more of a wish.

1. Ashley - her SP is the best, her LP is her weakness, I doubt she will skate it clean but with one or 2 minor mistakes. she should be more confident on her jumps, that with let her feel the program more.
2. Christina - it will not happen but I like her both SP and LP, more than Gracie's or Mirai's who I think will be in front of her. and unfortunately she will not receive the PCS she deserves, her only chance is to skate clean (a very little one). I hope she can peak at nationals and get rid of the 5th place curse.
3. Gracie - I haven't seen her new SP, I didn't like the old one much but not because of the music or choregraphy but because she didn't feel it, she executed everything perfectly but in the end there was no thrill. Her LP is awful. I like Gracie, her jumps and spins, but I have the feeling that this year is not a good one for her.
4. Mirai - I wouldn't have said it at the beginning of the season, I gave up on her since the last 2 seasons, but I really hope she can make a come back this year.
5. Samantha - I like her so much! She must be a little rough and inexperienced as a senior but she is such a pleasure to watch. I think a 5th place will secure her a trip to 4CC. Of course I wouldn't mind her making the team but I don't think she's ready yet for the big scene and doesn't receive the support she needs form the US federation. Just like Gao.
6. Polina - very elegant and the one to watch for the future
7. Courtney - I used to like her as a junior in her first year, but now as a senior I really don't. But the US fed seems to like her, at least last year liked her enough to put her in 4th place.
8. Angela - I would surely love to see her place higher, this girl has the potential to win this competition and do well on the international senior scene, if she weren't such a headcase. There, I said it, I hate this word, never used it before but Angela really makes me mad. She had so many chances and ruined them all.
9. Agnes - ... I got nothing to say. I see nothing in her. She will surely place higher, God knows why.
10. Mariah Bell.

I hope Rippon makes the team and wins the competition. This is his moment.
In dance this year I like Hubbel and Donohue. Last year I was very impressed by Chock and Bates but his year I don't know what happened, the magic was lost.
In pairs I don't like Denney & Coughlin, I think they are over scored. I like Castelli and Shnapir but more because of Marissa, Shnapir is awful.

 

[macy]

why are people forgetting ashley cain and hannah miller but remembering polina edmunds with the ladies?

 

[IleK]

Maybe because Hannah Miller had a bad season due to injury. I don't think she will make top 10 at nationals. And even last year when she had her good season she placed very low. I am not a fan anyway, I see her in the same category with Leah Keiser and Barbie Long. Polina Edmunds is much more classy and mature than any of these. She made mistakes in her short program at JGPF but had the second best LP.
About Ashley Cain, you are right. After posting I just realize that I missed her, not forget about her. I had her in my mind for the top 10. The thing is that until Nebelhorn I had no idea who Ashley Cain is and why she was sent to that competition instead of other girls who were more known. I think there are not many people who really noticed her. But she made quite an impression, her skating doesn't look 15 at all. I really hope she will place good and receive JGP next year.

 

[SimplyAFan]

Maybe because Hannah Miller had a bad season due to injury. I don't think she will make top 10 at nationals. And even last year when she had her good season she placed very low. I am not a fan anyway, I see her in the same category with Leah Keiser and Barbie Long. Polina Edmunds is much more classy and mature than any of these. She made mistakes in her short program at JGPF but had the second best LP.
About Ashley Cain, you are right. After posting I just realize that I missed her, not forget about her. I had her in my mind for the top 10. The thing is that until Nebelhorn I had no idea who Ashley Cain is and why she was sent to that competition instead of other girls who were more known. I think there are not many people who really noticed her. But she made quite an impression, her skating doesn't look 15 at all. I really hope she will place good and receive JGP next year.

I also hope Ashley Cain does well and places top 8, which I think she can do. If I'm remembering correctly, she has already skated on the JGP and would like to see her stay senior and skate more senior Bs and maybe a GP or two if possible (she'd be a good one for a Skate America host pick). Out of the other skaters you mentioned, I agree that Polina is the most put together and polished skater and therefore probably has the most potential. If you look at the technical numbers, she has a good edge over most ladies in this field. I actually see her doing very well this year (perhaps on the podium) because she isn't in the spotlight and has less pressure to do well. I root for Leah Keiser mostly because she's from Pittsburgh, my hometown. Barbie is a good skater with some nice qualities but for some reason just doesn't capture my attention. I hope Hannah Miller has recovered. Her twitter posts lead me to believe training has been going well and she had the highest score of all senior ladies at Sectionals. For some reason I really enjoy watching her.

 

[SimplyAFan]

Here are my predictions (which have some of my hopes in there too):

Ladies:
1.Wagner (clearly no 1 in US right now)
2. Gold (I think having more time to train with Frank will benefit her)
3. Edmunds (going out on a limb here but she has the technical potential, is rather polished/elegant for a skater just out of juniors, and doesn't have as much pressure as many of her competitors to do well here. having done junior FS all season might limit her but I think the US needs to start building toward 2018 now)
4. Zawadski (will have great SP, fall apart in FS)
5. Hicks (technical content, but low PCS; I just don't really enjoy watching her skate, love watching her jump though)
6. Cesario (great performance, maybe not the best technical content, thinking she'll do fairly well)

Men
1. Rippon (I think it's his year)
2. Brown (Even without a quad he will outskate his competitors and entertain us all along the way)
3. Aaron (pressure of defending his title will get to him but he's a fighter so he will still do fairly well)
4. Farris (Less pressure than other competitors, has good tech abilities and decent PCS)
5. Abbott (I'm guessing he will pop a lot of jumps and just not skate to his potential, hoping he proves me wrong though, would like to see him at one last olympics)
6. Dornbush (tech content but limited by PCS)

Ice Dance
1. Davis/White (sheer brilliance)
2. Shibutanis (have made changes to improve MJ program, probably will perfrom well in front of a big crowd)
3. Chock/Bates (have had decent season)
4. Hubbell/Donahue (would LOVE to see them at the olympics, but I'm not sure how they'll do with her injury
5. Lynn/Logan (love them but I just don't see them placing higher than 4th but that's only with mistakes from one of the above teams)
6. Aldridge/Eaton (first senior season but have a lot of potential)

Pairs
1. Denney/Coughlin (thinking they will have the edge with PCS)
2. Scimeca/Knierim (love this team, really hoping they can manage this, have more experience than they did last year)
3. Castelli/Shnapir (pressure of skating in front of home crowd, won last year due to SP lead and, in my opinion, being pre-event favorites with D/C out)
4. Denney/Frasier (I think they have improved from last year and want to prove themselves, have been together a while)
5. Zhang/Bartholomay (nice team, but they don't really stick out in my mind)
6. Donlan/Speroff (beautiful team but tech/mistakes could really hold them back)

 

[IleK]

I also hope Ashley Cain does well and places top 8, which I think she can do. If I'm remembering correctly, she has already skated on the JGP and would like to see her stay senior and skate more senior Bs and maybe a GP or two if possible (she'd be a good one for a Skate America host pick). Out of the other skaters you mentioned, I agree that Polina is the most put together and polished skater and therefore probably has the most potential. If you look at the technical numbers, she has a good edge over most ladies in this field. I actually see her doing very well this year (perhaps on the podium) because she isn't in the spotlight and has less pressure to do well. I root for Leah Keiser mostly because she's from Pittsburgh, my hometown. Barbie is a good skater with some nice qualities but for some reason just doesn't capture my attention. I hope Hannah Miller has recovered. Her twitter posts lead me to believe training has been going well and she had the highest score of all senior ladies at Sectionals. For some reason I really enjoy watching her.

Here is an article I've just read about Ashley Cain. http://www.absoluteskating.com/interviews/2013ashleycain.html Very nice, so she is 18? At Nebelhorn they said she was 15, I had my doubts because she was just too polished for 15. Then, you are right, we must see her in the senior circuit next year, with at least one GP.
About Hannah, she also has a nice presentation, it is just that I don't see her doing better than she did last season when she won silver at JGPF. This is why I said I see her in the same category with Leah Keiser and Barbie Long. I don't see these 2 breaking the ice at the senior level. Anyway, it makes me said to see how much damage an injury can do to someone's skating. It is not fair to get injured at such an young age. It can break your wings and make you quit. I hope Hannah will recover.
Polina and Ashley can be the big surprises at these nationals. I still have hopes for the american ladies, they were always the attraction for me in figure skating. Although the russian ladies are quite impressing, I still like better the american style

 

[LRK]

Ah, better get this done before I forget entirely...

Men:

1. Adam Rippon
2. Jason Brown
3. Max Aaron
4. Jeremy Abbott
5. Joshua Farris
6. Ross Miner

Ladies:

1. Ashley Wagner
2. Gracie Gold
3. Christina Gao
4. Mirai Nagasu
5. Polina Edmunds
6. Samantha Cesario

Pairs:

1. Denney/Coughlin
2. Scimeca/Knierim
3. Castelli/Shnapir
4. Davis/Brubaker
5. Denney/Frazier
6. Zhang/Barholomay

Ice Dance:

1. Davis/White
2. Chock/Bates
3. Shibutani/Shibutani
4. Hubbell/Donohue
5. Aldridge/Eaton
6. Kriengkrairut/Giulietti-Schmidt

 

[SimplyAFan]

Here is an article I've just read about Ashley Cain. http://www.absoluteskating.com/interviews/2013ashleycain.html Very nice, so she is 18? At Nebelhorn they said she was 15, I had my doubts because she was just too polished for 15. Then, you are right, we must see her in the senior circuit next year, with at least one GP.
About Hannah, she also has a nice presentation, it is just that I don't see her doing better than she did last season when she won silver at JGPF. This is why I said I see her in the same category with Leah Keiser and Barbie Long. I don't see these 2 breaking the ice at the senior level. Anyway, it makes me said to see how much damage an injury can do to someone's skating. It is not fair to get injured at such an young age. It can break your wings and make you quit. I hope Hannah will recover.
Polina and Ashley can be the big surprises at these nationals. I still have hopes for the american ladies, they were always the attraction for me in figure skating. Although the russian ladies are quite impressing, I still like better the american style

Thanks for that article! Unfortunately she tweeted yesterday that she has been battling a virus, but hopefully she'll be ready to go by the end of the week!

 

[Bea]

Men
1. Adam Rippon
2. Jason Brown
3. Jeremy Abbott
4. Max Aaron
5. Joshua Farris
6. Ross Miner

Ladies
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Gracie Gold
3. Christina Gao
4. Samantha Cesario
5. Mirai Nagasu
6. Polina Edmunds

Pairs
1. Caydee Denney / John Coughlin
2. Alexa Scimeca / Chris Knierim
3. Marissa Castelli / Simon Shnapir
4. Haven Denney / Brandon Frazier
5. Felicia Zhang / Nathan Bartholomay
6. Lindsay Davis / Rockne Brubaker

Ice dance
1. Meryl Davis / Charlie White
2. Madison Chock / Evan Bates
3. Maia Shibutani / Alex Shibutani
4. Madison Hubbell / Zachary Donohue
5. Alexandra Aldridge / Daniel Eaton
6. Lynn Kriengkrairut / Logan Giulietti-Smith