Any Sasha updates?

[Layfan]

Her scores have been low because she has been falling twice and getting the loop UR recently so that gets her down to three clean triples.

A lot of the top ladies attempt 7 triples in their freeskate (Yuna, Rachael, Akiko, Joannie, Miki if she does her 3-3, Mao if she does two 3a). When she was attempting 5, that was real conservative, even with 6, if she misses just 2, that's only 4 which isn't great.

And I think you can do 2 of the same jump in a competition, because after her freeskate Yuna was talking to Brian and they were like oh that was interesting, and then Yuna said that she got the flip and the second lutz. Rachael attempts 2 flips and 1 or 2 lutzes in her freeskate, Alissa I think already attempts 2 lutzes but because she doesn't do the salchow and has problems with flip and loop, that doesn't leave her with many options...

I think you can't attempt any jump more than 2 times except maybe a double axel because I know Yuna and a lot of other ladies do 3 2axels in their LP. Maybe it's something to do with combinations or whatnot

Now that you've explained all this to me ... it really will be a shock if Flatt doesn't win nationals. I guess there is a chance for Alissa (and the others) IF she does a perfect SP that puts her well ahead of Flatt and then goes on to have a perfect six triple FS. If she has two falls again ... forget it.

 

[Mathman]

And I think you can do 2 of the same jump in a competition...

You can repeat two diffrent jumps once each, and one of the two repetitions must be in combination. You can do up to three double Axels.

So you could do something like 3Lz, 3Lz+3T, 3F, 3F+2T (you can't do 3F+3T here because you have already repeated the Lutz and the flip, so you can't repeat the toe also), 3Lo, 3S+2T+2Lo (you can repeat as many doubls as you want, but you can only do a total of three combinations, and only one of them can included three jumps), 2A.

That would be a killer program, and pretty close to the maximum (practically speaking) unless you can do a triple Axel.

 

[Layfan]

You can repeat two diffrent jumps once each, and one of the two repetitions must be in combination. You can do up to three double Axels.

So you could do something like 3Lz, 3Lz+3T, 3F, 3F+2T (you can't do 3F+3T here because you have already repeated the Lutz and the flip, so you can't repeat the toe also), 3Lo, 3S+2T+2Lo (you can repeat as many doubls as you want, but you can only do a total of three combinations, and only one of them can included three jumps), 2A.

That would be a killer program, and pretty close to the maximum (practically speaking) unless you can do a triple Axel.

I'll never remember all that. But thanks!

 

[MKFSfan]

MM-did you notice in Akiko's LP at GPF she doesn't do a solo 2ax? She managed 7 triples and 2 axles this way without having to do a 3/3 combo or sequence: 3fl/2t/2lp, 3t-2ax, 3lp, 3fl, 3lz, 3lp-2ax, 3s. I think that is pretty savy! It would still be less total jumping points than your scenario (if my math is correct, 42.3 Vs 44.3) but still a good base mark w/o a 3/3.

Layfan, all you really need to remember is:
~There are 6 different triples: toe, salchow, loop, flip, lutz, axel
~Ladies have a maximum of 7 jumping passes in the LP, one of which must consist of an axel type jump ex: can be done as a solo jump or in combination
~Unless a skater can do a triple axel, the most triples that can be done will be 7: only two can be repeated, and one must be in combo ex: 3lutz, 3lutz-2toe, 3flip, 3flip-2toe.
~A skater can have up to 3 combinations, only one can consist of 3 jumps.
~Only 3 2axels are allowed.

Hope this helps!

 

[Mathman]

I'll never remember all that.

Sometimes the skaters can't either. When they mess up an element at the beginning and then try to make up for it later, they often end up violating the rules somehow and getting an entire element thrown out.

Like at Skate Canada Caroline Zhang missed her intended flip combination and only did a solo flip. Then later in the program she did another solo flip. But that second flip had to be in combination, so it was automatically scored as if it were a combination, even though there was no attempt at a second jump.

Then later she did a 3+2+2 combination. But now this was too many combinations (she had done two others besides the flip), so she got 0 points for this whole element, even though it was her best-performed element in the whole program.

Nobunari Oda did something similar at Worlds a couple of years ago and it cost him the bronze medal.

Moral of the story (as Scott Hamilton put it): Plan your skate, skate your plan.

MM-did you notice in Akiko's LP at GPF she doesn't do a solo 2ax? She managed 7 triples and 2 axles this way without having to do a 3/3 combo or sequence: 3fl/2t/2lp, 3t-2ax, 3lp, 3fl, 3lz, 3lp-2ax, 3s. I think that is pretty savy! It would still be less total jumping points than your scenario (if my math is correct, 42.3 Vs 44.3) but still a good base mark w/o a 3/3.

:agree: Cool. The only problem is that both of the 2A combinations have to be sequences, so all four jumps get hit by the .8 factor. If she could turn it arround and do 2A+3T, that would be super.

 

[silverlake22]

Layfan, all you really need to remember is:
~There are 6 different triples: toe, salchow, loop, flip, lutz, axel
~Ladies have a maximum of 7 jumping passes in the LP, one of which must consist of an axel type jump ex: can be done as a solo jump or in combination
~Unless a skater can do a triple axel, the most triples that can be done will be 7: only two can be repeated, and one must be in combo ex: 3lutz, 3lutz-2toe, 3flip, 3flip-2toe.
~A skater can have up to 3 combinations, only one can consist of 3 jumps.
~Only 3 2axels are allowed.

This explains why Alissa is at a disadvantage, she never attempts a salchow, has trouble with flip and loop, which leaves her with lutz, toe, and axel. She does not do a 3axel, a 3toe is not worth very much, and though she is good at her lutz, her second lutz later in the program she sometimes struggles with because she is tired at that point and 3lutz is considered the hardest jump (besides 3axel). It does not make sense for her to attempt 2 flips because she struggles with them, the same goes for the loop, and she already attempts 2 lutzes and 2 2axels. She also usually does not do a 3 jump combination, which I don't know why she does that. She should make her opening 3lz-2t into a 3lz-2t-2lo or if she wants to get more points do a 3t-2t-2lo toward the end of her program. I don't know why she doesn't attempt 7 triples because if she did she'd have more of a cushion

 

[Layfan]

MM-did you notice in Akiko's LP at GPF she doesn't do a solo 2ax? She managed 7 triples and 2 axles this way without having to do a 3/3 combo or sequence: 3fl/2t/2lp, 3t-2ax, 3lp, 3fl, 3lz, 3lp-2ax, 3s. I think that is pretty savy! It would still be less total jumping points than your scenario (if my math is correct, 42.3 Vs 44.3) but still a good base mark w/o a 3/3.

Layfan, all you really need to remember is:
~There are 6 different triples: toe, salchow, loop, flip, lutz, axel
~Ladies have a maximum of 7 jumping passes in the LP, one of which must consist of an axel type jump ex: can be done as a solo jump or in combination
~Unless a skater can do a triple axel, the most triples that can be done will be 7: only two can be repeated, and one must be in combo ex: 3lutz, 3lutz-2toe, 3flip, 3flip-2toe.
~A skater can have up to 3 combinations, only one can consist of 3 jumps.
~Only 3 2axels are allowed.

Hope this helps!

Nice cheat sheet, thanks.

This explains why Alissa is at a disadvantage, she never attempts a salchow, has trouble with flip and loop, which leaves her with lutz, toe, and axel. She does not do a 3axel, a 3toe is not worth very much, and though she is good at her lutz, her second lutz later in the program she sometimes struggles with because she is tired at that point and 3lutz is considered the hardest jump (besides 3axel). It does not make sense for her to attempt 2 flips because she struggles with them, the same goes for the loop, and she already attempts 2 lutzes and 2 2axels. She also usually does not do a 3 jump combination, which I don't know why she does that. She should make her opening 3lz-2t into a 3lz-2t-2lo or if she wants to get more points do a 3t-2t-2lo toward the end of her program. I don't know why she doesn't attempt 7 triples because if she did she'd have more of a cushion

I'm sure Alissa never thought of herself as a SP skater since her real strength are spins and artistry. But she has become one because she just can't seem to put together a competitive LP under COP. :frown2:

I think she has been doing a three jump combination this season though. Seems like I saw her doing one at some event. If I were her, I wouldn't mess with her first combination. It's the one she always seems to land. Then you think, yes she's doing it! And then about 2 minutes later it's ..." splat! ...no, there she goes again..."

I don't know how that girl trains but I hope she spends most of her time on her jumps. The other elements are so easy for she could probably forget to practice them for a week and still go out and do them perfectly.

 

[silverlake22]

Nice cheat sheet, thanks.
I think she has been doing a three jump combination this season though. Seems like I saw her doing one at some event. If I were her, I wouldn't mess with her first combination. It's the one she always seems to land. Then you think, yes she's doing it! And then about 2 minutes later it's ..." splat! ...no, there she goes again..."

I don't know how that girl trains but I hope she spends most of her time on her jumps. The other elements are so easy for she could probably forget to practice them for a week and still go out and do them perfectly.

She did a 3lz-2t-2t in her LP at COR, it was her first combination though so I wasn't sure if it was scheduled to be a 3 jump combo or if she just decided to tack on another 2t because she landed the first two jumps well.

I don't know how she trains either but I think she should look into more strength training. She's very thin and a little more muscle could help her. Maybe she should go work with Joannie's personal trainer

 

[Layfan]

She did a 3lz-2t-2t in her LP at COR, it was her first combination though so I wasn't sure if it was scheduled to be a 3 jump combo or if she just decided to tack on another 2t because she landed the first two jumps well.

I don't know how she trains either but I think she should look into more strength training. She's very thin and a little more muscle could help her. Maybe she should go work with Joannie's personal trainer

Maybe.

The thing about body types though ... Kim Yuna sort of destroys any preconceptions I might have had about that. I look at her and I just can't believe she's such a powerful skater. She's got no meat on those bones!!

 

[herro]

Ugh, I really want some kind of solid news on Sasha! Like a clip of her practice or something!

 

[Bennett]

Maybe.

The thing about body types though ... Kim Yuna sort of destroys any preconceptions I might have had about that. I look at her and I just can't believe she's such a powerful skater. She's got no meat on those bones!!

It is interesting that she is powerful and looks fragile at the same time. Is that why she seems to have had some stamina issue before?

 

[Tinymavy15]

Ugh, I really want some kind of solid news on Sasha! Like a clip of her practice or something!

same here. I don't know how much longer we can last like this.... anticipating nationals and fearing the worst.

 

[silverlake22]

Maybe.

The thing about body types though ... Kim Yuna sort of destroys any preconceptions I might have had about that. I look at her and I just can't believe she's such a powerful skater. She's got no meat on those bones!!

Yes but Asian women are built differently than the European ladies. All the Asian figure skaters are really thin, to me Mao looks even thinner than Yuna, Akiko is tiny, Miki is thin as well though you notice it less because her costumes are so long and fluffy , Fumie is a little waif, and Caroline and Mirai don't look as though they've gained much weight through puberty. All can land jumps consistently though.

If you are going to compare Alissa to the other skaters, compare her to Ashley, Rachael, Joannie, Carolina, Alena, even Cynthia and Amelie, and any other European lady who can actually land her triples. They all look sturdier and more muscular than Alissa to me. The Canadians especially, I think Amelie may even be more buff than Joannie! So I know that whole thin ballerina look is signature Alissa, but if she wants to be more competitive jump wise she might want to consider more time in a gym to build up her strength. This is all speculative though, maybe Alissa looks really strong in person

 

[chuckm]

Alissa sometimes doesn't do a 3-jump combination because if she has a rough landing on the first jump, she doesn't attempt the combo. And unfortunately, she has insecure landings fairly frequenttly. It's rare for her to complete all of her planned elements, especially in a high-pressure event.

Here's her FS layouts so far this year:

NEBELHORN: 3z, 3f<, 3lo<+2t, a, 3z+2t, 3t<, 2lo (and she won the comp!)

CoR: 3z+2t+2t, 3f!< fall, 3lo<, 2a^2a, 3z, 3t, 3lo<+seq

SC: 3z+2t, 3f, 3lo<, 2a^2a, 3z<, 3t, 3lo<+seq

Based on the above, I think this is her INTENDED layout:

3z+2t+2t, 3f, 3lo+2t, 2a^2a, 3z, 3t, 3lo

Considering that she has consistently underrotated the loop, I don't think this layout works for her.

Alissa has received 3 UR calls at every competition this season. What concerns me is that USFS tends to ignore Alissa's URs, which is really unfair to her competitors.

 

[Mathman]

On the other hand...

Here is why Sasha has a chance to win U.S. Nationals after all. Her program components, no matter what shape she is in, will be at least a full point above those of any other American lady, across the board. That translates into spotting Sasha a 12-point lead (4 points in the short program and 8 in the long) before the competition begins.

So even if her technical quiver is (as I suspect) short an arrow or two, who knows what might happen?

 

[chuckm]

If Sasha can't complete a clean SP, even high PCS scores won't save her. The only way USFS could force the issue would be to deliberately lower all the top competitors' PCS scores, while astronomically elevating Sasha's. That could cause a riot, especially if Sasha splatted her way through both SP and FS.

And why would the US want to send an obviously unready Sasha to the Olympics, where she'd be an even bigger embarrassment?

Sasha must EARN a spot on the team just like all the other ladies. If she can't land her jumps, she should not be given the benefit of the doubt. USFS should have learned that lesson with Alissa Czisny last year.

 

[Mathman]

^ I wasn't thinking of the scenario where Sasha splats her way through the competition, but rather the one where she skates beautifully but without maximizing her points by doing two triple Lutzes, a triple flip+triple toe combination, etc. Just a nice effort with five clean triples.

I don't think the judges would have to inflate Sasha's program component scores or hold anyone else back. I think Sasha -- even now -- is legitimately ahead of skaters like Rachael, Mirai, Ashley and Caroline (not so sure about Alissa) in areas like P/E, Choreo, and maybe skating skills and transitions.

About the USFSA "wanting" to send Sasha to the Olympics, I don't think that is the point. If she wins nationals, she will go.

 

[chuckm]

How do we know if Sasha is even capable of landing 5 clean triples? If two of them are flutzes, they wouldn't be clean anyway. Sasha hasn't even been able to train lutz and flip with any regularity. Do you think a program with 5 triples consisting only of toe, salchow and loop is worthy of an Olympic berth?

 

[R.D.]

Do you think a program with 5 triples consisting only of toe, salchow and loop is worthy of an Olympic berth?

Depends on what the competition throws down, right? Like always...

 

[Mathman]

Well, it is not my job to evaluate worthiness. And it is not the job of the judges at nationals either. I am just saying that it is possible for the CoP points to come out in Sasha's favor.

If, say, Mirai did a nice 7 triple program, with a couple of underrotations and an edge call, while Sasha presented a program of less technical difficulty but cleaned up on GOEs and PCSs --I don't know, I am sitting here doing the math... It could happen.