Any Sasha updates?

[silverlake22]

If, say, Mirai did a nice 7 triple program, with a couple of underrotations and an edge call, while Sasha presented a program of less technical difficulty but cleaned up on GOEs and PCSs --I don't know, I am sitting here doing the math... It could happen.

Ok, but what if Alissa does a 6 triple program with her beautiful artistry, Rachael does a 7 triple program and hits her 3-3, and Ashley does a 6 triple program and really presents- will Sasha win? I doubt it. If Alissa landed 6 clean triples in her FS I think the USFS would be so excited and let her win, and Rachael would be in 2nd because of her technical difficulty

 

[R.D.]

Lol, Czisny will NOT land a clean 6-triple routine, you can count on that. 5 is not out of the question though...

Man, what a nailbiter it will be if the other four go clean, though...and better yet, there is no runaway winner at the end of the SP...even if Czisny does a repeat of last year she could sneak onto the Oly team if someone else crumbles under the pressure...

And although a clean comp is a nice thought, it could very well be a comp of "the last one standing"...which I think will lend itself to the strong possibility of a Nagasu/Flatt Oly team if that happens...

 

[R.D.]

Ha, I also notice Zhang beginning to be counted out..maybe that will work in her favor

 

[silverlake22]

Lol, Czisny will NOT land a clean 6-triple routine, you can count on that. 5 is not out of the question though...

You never know. Maybe she will surprise us all and do a 7 triple routine with a triple-triple! And then do it again at the Olympics and medal

 

[janetfan]

How do we know if Sasha is even capable of landing 5 clean triples? If two of them are flutzes, they wouldn't be clean anyway. Sasha hasn't even been able to train lutz and flip with any regularity. Do you think a program with 5 triples consisting only of toe, salchow and loop is worthy of an Olympic berth?

According to CoP what you think doesn't count. If Sasha can rack up more points than the others her jump layout will not be such an issue.

You act like you have been to see her train. Can you back up any of your claims or is it just so much BS?

I can't prove Sasha is landing this or that jump and I suspect it is fair to say you can't prove anything either.

The whole problem - if a bunch of you would open your eyes - is that US Ladies are not world class. Sasha would not have tried a comeback if she saw 2-3 skaters who could leave her for dead.

Maybe she will bomb - and maybe as mm suggests her abilty to perform and execute certain elements is a clear step over all but Alissa. This could be enough to give her a good shot at 1st or 2nd place at Natls - and a ticket to Vancouver.

 

[R.D.]

But there's just one small caveat:

she hasn't competed in four years.



Let me repeat it a little louder:

She has not competed in FOUR years!

 

[janetfan]

But there's just one small caveat:

she hasn't competed in four years.

Let me repeat it a little louder:

She has not competed in FOUR years!

What does that really prove? Do you think Sasha forgot everything she knew about skating?

Your remark would mean more if it was directed at Michelle who was off the ice for quite a while.

Sasha has been skating in shows and still has some formidable and exquisite moves.

If you can win SA with 3 triples and the GPF with four and Worlds with five I don't see any reason for Sasha to give up her comeback for any reason other than injuries/health probelms.

Apologies to Yuna and Miki and not knocking them because they are champions and exceptionally talented skaters. But if the era of 7 triples is ending I think that plays to Sasha's strengths.

I think it might be possible for Sasha to compete against some of today's skaters, and particularly the USA Ladies.

 

[Mathman]

Here is how Sasha could win without a Lutz or a flip.

Sasha:

3Lo
3Lo+2Lo+2T
3S
3S+2A seq.
3T+2T
2A
2A

37.0 base points, not counting second half bonus.

Rachael:

3F
3F+3T
3Lz
3Lz+2T
3Lo+2Lo+2T
3S
2A

Seven triples, including a triple flip/triple toe, two Lutzes, two flips, and a whopping 44.1 base points, not counting second half bonuses.

So Sasha has 7 points to make up. She gets straight 8's in program components (64 points) to Rachael's straight 7's (56 points)

Sasha wins! And we haven't even counted GOEs on spins and spirals.

Of course, for all this to happen, Sasha has to actually, you know, skate.

 

[i love to skate]

Of course, for all this to happen, Sasha has to actually, you know, skate.

Oh, the end of January cannot come soon enough

 

[vlaurend]

Here is how Sasha could win without a Lutz or a flip.

Sasha:

3Lo
3Lo+2Lo+2T
3S
3S+2A seq.
3T+2T
2A
2A

37.0 base points, not counting second half bonus.

Rachael:

3F
3F+3T
3Lz
3Lz+2T
3Lo+2Lo+2T
3S
2A

Seven triples, including a triple flip/triple toe, two Lutzes, two flips, and a whopping 44.1 base points, not counting second half bonuses.

So Sasha has 7 points to make up. She gets straight 8's in program components (64 points) to Rachael's straight 7's (56 points)

Sasha wins! And we haven't even counted GOEs on spins and spirals.

Of course, for all this to happen, Sasha has to actually, you know, skate.

I am a Sasha fan and would love nothing more than to see a successful comeback, but you are making some big assumptions that I would not make right now.

First, you are assuming Sasha gets level 4's on her spins, but the spin level rules have changed 4 times since she last competed. While I believe she probably has the physical ability to do the difficult variations, revolutions, edge changes, etc., putting them all together so that each spin actually gets called as a level 3 or 4 by the technical panel is another story. Same with the step sequence level calls, maybe even more so.

Second, you are assuming Sasha's 3T and 3S are consistent. She has not landed all of them cleanly in her ice shows this year (they had to re-shoot many of her 3T's and 3S's--often multiple times--for the TV broadcast version). That is not very encouraging.

And third, you are assuming the USFSA wants to risk putting Sasha on the Olympic team based on just one competition and ZERO feedback from international judges since 2006. Alyssa Czisny has been a constant reminder to them that a single good performance does not mean the skater will deliver again when it counts, which is why they are selecting the U.S. team based on their Grand Prix competitions and placements at Worlds 2009, not just placement at 2010 U.S. Nationals. If the judges at Nationals are so generous with PCS that Sasha ends up on the Olympic team, they are risking that (1) Sasha may not deliver an equal performance at the Olympics, and (2) the current crop of international judges may not give her the same PCS (and that's a *real* unknown).

 

[R.D.]

Of course, for all this to happen, Sasha has to actually, you know, skate.

Uh, yeah. Exactly. 'Nuff said. End of story.

 

[Mathman]

And third, you are assuming the USFSA wants to risk putting Sasha on the Olympic team based on just one competition and ZERO feedback from international judges since 2006... If the judges at Nationals are so generous with PCS that Sasha ends up on the Olympic team, they are risking that (1) Sasha may not deliver an equal performance at the Olympics, and (2) the current crop of international judges may not give her the same PCS (and that's a *real* unknown).

True. Naive person that I am, a I am assuming (I guess hoping would be better) that the judges at U.S. Nationals have no further responsibility or interest than to judge the skating before them to the best of their ability. The scores at U.S. Nationals should (in the best of all possible worlds) have nothing to do with the results of any other contest.

After Nationals is over, then the International Committee of the USFSA can begin its deliberations about who they want to send to the Olympics, But "who they want to send" should have no affect on the actual judging at Nationals, IMHO.

 

[Tinymavy15]

But there's just one small caveat:

she hasn't competed in four years.



Let me repeat it a little louder:

She has not competed in FOUR years!

Neither has Plushenko.

Here is how Sasha could win without a Lutz or a flip.

Sasha:

3Lo
3Lo+2Lo+2T
3S
3S+2A seq.
3T+2T
2A
2A

37.0 base points, not counting second half bonus.

Rachael:

3F
3F+3T
3Lz
3Lz+2T
3Lo+2Lo+2T
3S
2A

Seven triples, including a triple flip/triple toe, two Lutzes, two flips, and a whopping 44.1 base points, not counting second half bonuses.

So Sasha has 7 points to make up. She gets straight 8's in program components (64 points) to Rachael's straight 7's (56 points)

Sasha wins! And we haven't even counted GOEs on spins and spirals.

Of course, for all this to happen, Sasha has to actually, you know, skate.

Nice. But i realy don't see Sasha taking out her lutzes and flips. None of the american ladies are able to consistently get their edges right on those jumps either. Racheal has improved but she still does have slight flutz...it all depends on which way the judges see it. Ashley has a bad flutz, Alissa has a strong lutz but lips now and then and never lands her second lutz anyway (or even rotates it). We all know what caroline's lutz and flip look like and Mirai (who is also cleaning things up) has not been perfect either.

 

[silverlake22]

I think you guys are forgetting something. Nobody falls more than Sasha, with few exceptions. I don't care how pretty Sasha's spiral is, even with jumps aside she is no where near as good as Yuna. And the whole argument about Yuna winning with 3 and 4 triples is irrelevant, we know she is capable of doing 7 triple programs. And plus, those 3 and 4 clean triples Yuna did were GOOD, strong triples. Sasha on the other hand, I doubt can do a 7 triple program, and her jumps are puny (or at least they were 4 years ago).

What made Sasha so special in her day was that she was flexible and emoted to the music, so yeah, she was different than Kwan and Slutskaya who were both power skaters who focused on jumps. Things have changed. I can rattle off a whole bunch of ladies who are flexible, have good spirals, and emote to the music: Caroline, Mirai, Alissa, Laura Lepisto, Mao, Yuna, Joannie (not super flexible but VERY expressive), and you could argue Carolina Kostner, Miki Ando, and half the European ladies belong on this list too.

So basically, more and more skaters have become artistic since Sasha left. The only real power jumpers I can think of are Rachael, and then Yuna and Miki, but the latter two are very emotive. Sasha won't stand out at the Olympics artistry wise, so if the jumps aren't up to par, I don't think she should be going

 

[Mathman]

^ There seem to be two questions under discussion at the same time on this thread.

(a) Does Sasha have a chance to win U.S. Nationals? And

(b) Should Sasha be chosen for the Olympic team?

First things first. Setting aside whether Sasha is anything special compared to Kim, Ando, Rochette, Asada, etc. -- does she still have any special qualities compared to Flatt, Wagner and Nagasu?

 

[Layfan]

^ There seem to be two questions under discussion at the same time on this thread.

(a) Does Sasha have a chance to win U.S. Nationals? And

(b) Should Sasha be chosen for the Olympic team?

First things first. Setting aside whether Sasha is anything special compared to Kim, Ando, Rochette, Asada, etc. -- does she still have any special qualities compared to Flatt, Wagner and Nagasu?

\\

Good lord, I can think of plenty of special qualities Sasha still has that those three American girls don't have, starting with ice presence. Sasha's spins and spirals may not be what they used to be but they are still in a completely different class than Flatt's. Flatt's spins are so slow you sometimes feel like skating out there and giving her a push. Even so, jumps matter. If Sasha can't AT LEAST get her old jumps back, she will not defeat Rachael. And she probably won't make the team. Of course, if she doesn't have her jumps back, I really doubt she'll show up at nationals at all.

 

[R.D.]

I think you guys are forgetting something. Nobody falls more than Sasha, with few exceptions. I don't care how pretty Sasha's spiral is, even with jumps aside she is no where near as good as Yuna. And the whole argument about Yuna winning with 3 and 4 triples is irrelevant, we know she is capable of doing 7 triple programs. And plus, those 3 and 4 clean triples Yuna did were GOOD, strong triples. Sasha on the other hand, I doubt can do a 7 triple program, and her jumps are puny (or at least they were 4 years ago).

What made Sasha so special in her day was that she was flexible and emoted to the music, so yeah, she was different than Kwan and Slutskaya who were both power skaters who focused on jumps. Things have changed. I can rattle off a whole bunch of ladies who are flexible, have good spirals, and emote to the music: Caroline, Mirai, Alissa, Laura Lepisto, Mao, Yuna, Joannie (not super flexible but VERY expressive), and you could argue Carolina Kostner, Miki Ando, and half the European ladies belong on this list too.

So basically, more and more skaters have become artistic since Sasha left. The only real power jumpers I can think of are Rachael, and then Yuna and Miki, but the latter two are very emotive. Sasha won't stand out at the Olympics artistry wise, so if the jumps aren't up to par, I don't think she should be going

Perhaps on paper that's the case, but truthfully we just don't know how it will all work out until SHE ACTUALLY GETS HER BUTT- ok, feet, sorry couldn't resist - ON COMPETITION ICE.

And will that happen? Honestly, that's probably the kind of speculation that this thread calls for, rather than how an old ghost of her stacks up against concrete performances by the current field.

 

[nubka]

I think you guys are forgetting something. Nobody falls more than Sasha, with few exceptions. I don't care how pretty Sasha's spiral is, even with jumps aside she is no where near as good as Yuna. And the whole argument about Yuna winning with 3 and 4 triples is irrelevant, we know she is capable of doing 7 triple programs. And plus, those 3 and 4 clean triples Yuna did were GOOD, strong triples. Sasha on the other hand, I doubt can do a 7 triple program, and her jumps are puny (or at least they were 4 years ago).

What made Sasha so special in her day was that she was flexible and emoted to the music, so yeah, she was different than Kwan and Slutskaya who were both power skaters who focused on jumps. Things have changed. I can rattle off a whole bunch of ladies who are flexible, have good spirals, and emote to the music: Caroline, Mirai, Alissa, Laura Lepisto, Mao, Yuna, Joannie (not super flexible but VERY expressive), and you could argue Carolina Kostner, Miki Ando, and half the European ladies belong on this list too.

So basically, more and more skaters have become artistic since Sasha left. The only real power jumpers I can think of are Rachael, and then Yuna and Miki, but the latter two are very emotive. Sasha won't stand out at the Olympics artistry wise, so if the jumps aren't up to par, I don't think she should be going

Well dang! I guess that settles it then...

 

[Nadia01]

Neither has Plushenko.

He competed in Russia this season.

Also Plushenko is not known for inconsistencies or bad jumps. When he was competing, he won almost everything, including Euro, WC, etc.

Has Sasha won 4CC or WC as many times as Plushenko?

Though we can argue that Sasha had to compete against Michelle, so it was hard for her to win lots of stuff, Plushenko had to compete against Yagudin for a long time too...

 

[chuckm]

Plushenko began training for Vancouver about a year and a half ago. And he's trained pretty strenuously---and effectively, based on his CoR performance.

Sasha put off training until 6 months ago, and then developed tendonitis in her leg, perhaps from trying to do too much in too little time. So she hasn't been able to train lutz and flip.

Plushenko was obviously serious about returning to competition. Sasha, well, not so much.