Article: Czisny working out kinks, has eyes on Turin

[R.D.]

http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/columns/story?id=2200302

Hmm...

Once again, I like Czisny's ambition- she WANTS to make the Olympic team. Can she do it? A tall task, but by all means not impossible. If she can skate at the level of or better than she did at SA she has a shot (but I only see a chance for her really opening up if Meissner falls).

 

[RealtorGal]

Good for her! I'd like to see her make it, too. Thanks for posting. :agree:

 

[attyfan]

I think a lot will depend upon what happens in the GPS. If Alissa does well at SC and makes the GPF, but Kimmie does not -- Alissa's chances IMO will improve dramatically.

 

[CDMM1991]

Alissa is on Kimmie's heels (if not her toes), and as soon as Kimmie falters at Nats this year, Alissa will be right there to step in. She's made two seasons out of stepping in when she's needed, and it's not out of the question for it to happen again. If you put a clean Kimmie, triple triples and all, beside a clean Alissa, I'm almost positive Alissa would be favored.

 

[Jhar55]

I got to see Alissa last year at SA, I really enjoyed she skating. If it's between Kimmie and Alissa my pick is Alissa, not to impressed with Kimmie. But then again there is BB laying back waiting for both of them to mess up.

 

[kareliz]

I think she is absolutely beautiful and can challenge for ANY of the top three spots at nationals. I know she's new, but if the wonderful Michele and the gorgeous Sasha and the bold Kimmie falter, and Czisny skates clean, she could definitely medal. I think her spin postions and speed are the best I've seen, her spirals are terrific, and when she's on, the jumps are also quite good. She has presence, good line, and she has me really excited that after Michelle, there will be someone to watch and love.

 

[orchid]

Hmmm, not too long ago, I posed a post about Alissa and most of you poofed her.


WOW, what a difference one skate makes.

Think about Meissner skating..... is she graceful, not really. Can she win points with one triple axel, yes, but not as much as Alissa can with a exquisitely performed spiral.

I think of Kimme as one of many contenders for the 3rd spot (Sasha too).

 

[Mathman]

Can she win points with one triple axel, yes, but not as much as Alissa can with a exquisitely performed spiral.

If only it were true...

Triple Axel = 7.5 points

Level four spiral step sequence = 3.4 points.

 

[CDMM1991]

As much as I love Bebe, Kimmie and Alissa prettty much have that third spot tied up in my opinion. At this, point, with the few results we've had so far, those two are the only TRUE contenders.

P.S. I thought it was interesting how it seemed like Alissa's spirals were strategically positioned so that the fact that her leg was out to the side a bit was not evident to the judges. I thought this was very smart, and interesting on Alissa, and her choreographer's part.

For instance, in this picture, it is not completely evident, unless you look closely that her leg is out to the side, and if judges were looking from this point of view, the spiral would look perfect.
http://theskatingtimes.com/images/2004/skateamerica/ladies/10-23-01-0224.jpg

But from this point of view:
http://www.icehorizons.org/AlissaCzisny1_1.jpg
The imperfect position of her leg is more evident. From what I can tell, there was no examples from her newest long program from the judges point of view, that showed the flaws in the positions.

BTW, I mean this as a compliment. I love Alissa's skating, think her and her choreographer made smart decisions, and would much rather see a straight free leg out to the side a tiny bit with an edge like that, than a bent one straight behind, on a shallow edge.

 

[Mathman]

Interesting analysis CDMM.

About Bebe, she just does not have that graceful, fluid style that the judges like. She has her own style, and I like it just fine, but that doesn't buy Bebe anything, LOL. She has to be technically perfect to get a break

 

[Kuchana]

Would love to see Alissa go to Turin. Frankly, even with Kimmie's 3 axel, I think Alissa could very well veer past her and surprise maybe all of us by possibly going higher at Nationals. I hope she gets it together by then or sooner

 

[RealtorGal]

I just hope she keeps it together and doesn't follow the path of Angela Nikodinov, who, although was a 2-time bronze medalist at Nats, never quite fulfilled her potential. You just never knew which Angela would step out onto the ice: the breathtaking artist or the skater who crumbled if she missed a jump.

 

[Doggygirl]

If only it were true...

Triple Axel = 7.5 points

Level four spiral step sequence = 3.4 points.

Mathman!! My score sheet buddy!!

Your post led me to look more closely at Kimmie's and Alissa's score sheets.

Of course, Alissa jumps were a complete disaster at Campbell's (3 falls, 2 missed combos). And I think we can all agree that no amount of wonderful non-jump elements can ever make up for that sort of jump disaster - so I think we all hope Alissa can gain consistency in that department. That said....

Non jump element (NJ) comments:

Base value for Kimmie's NJ's at Campbell's was 13.2 including 2 L1's, 1 L2 and 3 L3's. She received no positive GOE from the judges (nor negative - it was 0)

Base value for Alissa's NJ's at Campbell's was 14.9 including 1 L1, 4 L3's and 1 L4. In spite of the jump disasters of this program, she got a total of +2.51 combined for NJ's.

Base value for Alissa's NJ's at SA was 15.9 including 1 L1, 2 L3 and 3 L4. Total +GOE was +5.1. (especially with GOE, we're not only talking about a different panel of judges, but a smaller number of judges, so much riskier to try to make comparisons between Campbell's and SA IMO, which is why I looked at NJ's for her disaster at Campbell's too.)

Base value for Kimmie's jumps at Campbell's was 43.5 (sans 3A) and the base value for Alissa's jumps at SA was 40.0 (sans 3/3).

So assuming Alissa can stand up the jumps, it looks to me like we have another interesting contest at hand between these two young skaters who have completely different styles and strengths/weaknesses.

Any general impressions about how readily the judges tend to hand out +GOE on well executed difficult jumps v. +GOE on well executed difficult non-jump elements? While the base values of the combined NJ elements (even for those with high levels) are nowhere near the base values of a typical program in the jump department, I suspect maybe the GOE factor for NJ's is something I haven't analyzed enough (well, to death) yet.

Any thoughts?

DG

 

[Mathman]

Doggygirl, that's a great question about GOEs for jumps versus other elements. I haven't done a study of this -- YET! LOL -- but my impression is that it is very difficult to get positive GOEs for jumps or negative GOEs for spins and step sequences. The criteria for negative GOEs on jumps seem to be laid out the most clearly.

MM

 

[Mathman]

How Alissa will win at Turino

On the very eve of the ladies short program, the criptic word goes out from camp Kwan -- Michelle has withdrawn from the Olympics. No reason given, just a post script down at the bottom -- "Blow it out your ear, (signed) MK."

Moments later, in Alissa's dorm room at Bowling Green U., the "Red Phone" rings.

"The eagle flies at midnight," comes the mysterious whisper. Alissa throws down her calculus book, grabs the four suitcases neatly stacked at the door and disappears into the night.

Meanwhile, Irina, Sasha and Shizuka hear the news. They go out and celebrate on cheap Italian wine (compliments of Speedy). The next day they are unable to compete. Kimmie axes her axel, Miki fops her flip, Caro double/double/doubles her triple/triple/triple, and the rest is history!

MM

 

[VINLUVSKWAN]

Alissa vs. kimmie

The key here is consistency not only with spins and spirals but with jumps. Jumps account for more than 60% of TES, and Kimmie hands down beats Alissa in the jump dep't. Clearly Alissa has the level 3 elements, but Kimmie performs her level 2 spins pretty well, and one of her elements is level 3 (sit spin??), and her spiral is level 2. Kimmie need only to feel the music more, elaborate SOME of her choreography (get rid of the Walk like an Egyptian hand gestures), loosen her upper body. Kimmie's jump set-ups are difficult, and although she has that callow look to her, she needs only to grow up more, artistically speaking, and add variety to her spins (esp. her layback, we saw her do a catchfoot at '05 Nationals).

 

[Doggygirl]

On the very eve of the ladies short program, the criptic word goes out from camp Kwan -- Michelle has withdrawn from the Olympics. No reason given, just a post script down at the bottom -- "Blow it out your ear, (signed) MK."

Moments later, in Alissa's dorm room at Bowling Green U., the "Red Phone" rings.

"The eagle flies at midnight," comes the mysterious whisper. Alissa throws down her calculus book, grabs the four suitcases neatly stacked at the door and disappears into the night.

Meanwhile, Irina, Sasha and Shizuka hear the news. They go out and celebrate on cheap Italian wine (compliments of Speedy). The next day they are unable to compete. Kimmie axes her axel, Miki fops her flip, Caro double/double/doubles her triple/triple/triple, and the rest is history!

MM

I was going to join Irina, Sasha and Shiz at their "party" but declined as it is CHEAP Italian wine.

You crack me up.

DG

 

[Bijoux]

If Irina does all her jumps

I predict she gets gold at Turin and repeats at worlds. I think they will even hold her up for her brave effort last season, and as reigning world champ. I'd love to see Alissa get 3rd spot on the team.

I don't think she's gonna have the calm to get close to podium, but I think she'll make a top 10 finish. Maybe 8th place.

Is yukina Ota skating in the GP? anyone?

 

[Mathman]

Is Yukina Ota skating in the GP? Anyone?

Hmm. No, she's not Yukari Nakano was just given a second assignment (NHK). Also Onda, Suguri, Arakawa, Asada and Ando will participate, but no Ota.

I have great hopes for Nakano this year. I saw her do her triple Axel right in front of me at Skate America a few years ago, back when that was all she had. Now she has blossomed into a fine artist. (Did you see her "Amazing Grace" exhibition program last year -- amazing!)

MM

 

[christinaskater]

She is amazing!!

Level 4 spins and spirals!!! She is amazing


She is made for the COP