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- Aug 18, 2010
What are you talking about?! Quad value has already been raised and set the following season after 2010 Olympics. I don't think it will change again next season. So there is no "IF".
Can Evgeni Plushenko win the 2014 Olympic title?
- Thread starter Mao88
- Start date
What are you talking about?! Quad value has already been raised and set the following season after 2010 Olympics. I don't think it will change again next season. So there is no "IF".
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- Jan 25, 2013
No, what I was saying was that due to inferior programs, content-wise, compared to the other top guys, Plushenko's quad is really what kept him up there. If all the other guys did a quad in their SP and FS, and all skated clean, Plushenko would have been in 4th or 5th. Add to that the fact that Plushenko isn't maximizing the scoring efficiency of his jumps (part of the reason he lost) by adding the 2L or performing a 3A in the second half and he's really shortchanging himself. The whole point of the system is to garner as many points as possible, and if he's throwing away points it obviously doesn't take away from what a great performance it was, but it does take away from how high the program can score (which, in this case, affected the final placement).
Under 6.0, an extra double loop, lower levels, and front-end loading wouldn't matter as long as you skated clean, but under the rules he - and everyone else - had to follow, it made a difference in your score. Oda would have a World bronze, but under the IJS rules his 3A-3T was negated and he lost it. It's also how Plushenko lost to Sandhu. You win by the rules, you lose by the rules. Plushenko physically did everything he could to win (double loop aside) by skating two clean skates and incorporating quads, but his programs didn't do everything possible for him to win.
I'm saying that instead of just expecting clean programs with quads to win, he should have made efforts to include even small changes that would maximize his points. It's like a runner who is in front the whole race and then eases up at the end because they think they have a prominent lead, and then all of a sudden somebody going at 90% of his speed the whole way ends up catching up and narrowly beating him. Tortoise & Hare scenario, if you will.
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- Jun 16, 2010
Exactly. It wasnt just a quadless champion. It was an average skater in everyway able to win without even donig a quad. Simply ridiculous. Only a truly special skater should be able to win without quads in this day and age. It makes me annoyed at Jeff for not continuing. As for Evan's triple axels they should all get either -1 in GOE or some of them downgraded (his 2nd triple axel in Vancouver should have been downgraded and wasnt, while Takahashi's lutzes which were nowhere near as much a problem got calls, what an epic joke). Had his triple axels in Vancouver been scored properly in Vancouver they would already probably lose him 10 or plus points to drop him back to 3rd or 4th place. That is before even getting into his ridiculous PCS in the SP which were higher than Takahashi's and almost as high as Lambiel's, LOL! Plushenko's PCS in the LP were also too high (while in the SP too low), but he is already well clear of Evan at this point, with the only question being if he would have won gold over Takahashi if Takahashi had been scored fairly.
- Joined
- Aug 31, 2003
That is right, I just checked, it was increased 0.5
yes, and i am talking about skaters not taking risk for 0.5
Maybe he wouldn't have medaled if everyone else did a quad because of the quality of his quad and spins and program design would have gotten all others more points. You may be right there. But they were not doing them because they were going by the system!
His strategy turned out to be bad but people act like doing a three jump combo with a double loop on the end was so obvious and easy and it was a mistake not to do but what if he ur-ed it! There was a reason why he never did a 3 jump combo the whole entire season! Maybe he was stepping out of all of them or ur-ing them?
3T
4T
3A
3R (Loop)
Sit spin, change foot sit spin
2A
3L
Flying sit spin
Circular footwork
3Lz+2T
3A+2T
3S (step out)
Straightline footwork
Camel spin, sit spin, upright, change foot came, sit spin, upright
This was his Russian nationals skate and he did do a 3A combo after the halfway point at least once but it was as a result of a mistake and also here no three jump combo! It was a terrible performance anyway but within that terrible performances there was a quad and a 3A after the halfway point but it shows how the team had a strategy that was designed to get the best out of plushenko. There program was not just done by idiots for an idiot! But if they were totally looking at what would work best there are so many things they could have done! Not just add a double loop and more second half jumps! If you look at what won there was no quad there at all! So you take Plushenko's layout and change it from 5/3 to 3/5 and add a never done that season three jump combo and he wins? Maybe? But that leaves out the person who won didn't do a quad so it makes no sense just to add a 3 jump combo and keep in the quads. Just the fact that he could do a 3A and 4/3 made him unique in Vancouver but that was not the smartest thing to do.
That is right, I just checked, it was increased 0.5
yes, and i am talking about skaters not taking risk for 0.5
Well more than making the quad worth over 10 they changed the underrotation rules. Because toe loop is the most accessible quad for most skaters if you ur a quad toe it goes back to 3t value- easiest triple!! So that change has changed the mindset! Quad toe mistakes keep you in the quad recognition zone! Not the easiest triple zone.
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- Jan 25, 2013
To be honest, I think the reason he didn't include the 2L was because he felt he didn't need it. He's done 4T-3T-3L and 4T-3T-2L many times and surely he could have put a 2L after his second 3A-2T (his plan should have been to do 4T-3T-2L, and then if he bailed the 2L now goes on the 3A-2T, and if he bailed the 2L now goes on the 3Z-2T. Plenty of skaters plan for missing a combination and practice incorporating the missed part of the combination later on, but I'm thinking he never planned it because he didn't really think he needed it. In his mind, he had landed a quad, and two triple axels and that would secure a victory. He could also bump up some of his spins to level 4, but again, he probably didn't want to expend the energy to do so because he felt he had done enough. The same thing happened in the GPF he lost to Sandhu... he assumed that since he had done his 4T and 3A's (and was unaware of his second 3A being negated), he had done everything he needed to do to win and omitted a whole jumping pass (the 3S, which would have won it for him).
And according to that Russian Nationals skate, he is capable of doing a 3A after the halfway point. He really should have done a 2A in the first half and a 3A in the second half. If you look at most of the guys in that 2010 Olympic FS, they not only didn't frontload, they also put difficult jumps in the second half and got extra points for it. Plushenko's layout is a "downhill" layout which means it starts really hard and gets progressively easier and easier (the loop being the exception: 1st half: 4T-3T, 3A, 3A-2T, 3L, 3Z 2nd half: 3Z+2T, 3S, 2A), and while it worked under 6.0 which was essentially a checklist of jumps no matter the order, this isn't rewarded by the IJS. I think Plushenko just assumed that a clean skate with a quad would be enough and didn't make the efforts to maximize his scoring potential.
Sign, why Plushenko did not do 2L only he knows, repeat million times that you think it is because he thought he did not need it (hence hinted he is arrogant) would not make your statement true.
Besides, why discuss again about his 2010's program? That is in the past. If Plushenko would compete in Sochi, do you think he would not maximum the scoring potential based on what he is capable of?
I think I am disagreeing with the idea that he make any effort to maximize his scoring potential. Like you can leave out stuff to maximize. You can leave out a quad or leave out a three jump combo. Leaving out the quad was smart for some but leaving out the 3 jump combo turned out to be dumb. That doesn't mean he wasn't trying to maximize his scoring potential. Look at his three jump combo in Torino. That was not good at all! Now he could have moved that double loop to the lutz or axel combo but maybe they were stepouts and urs in practice. Maybe he did believe he didn't need it because he was the only one capable of a quad triple and 3A. But not needing it doesn't mean he wasn't trying to maximize the points. They were trying to be smart but wound up very stupid. But the stupid goes all the way beyond not doing a three jump combo but doing quads that were not OMG perfect and generated tons of criticism on no GOE. They might have thought it was smart to do things to maximize plushenko's points. But not the case at all. Doing a 4/3/3 wasn't in the cares. He could barely do that anyway. He was losing capability at 4/3/2. Maybe he lost ability at 3/2/2. Just any three jump combo wasn't working. He never ever did one that whole season anywhere! For others maximizing point meant doing it in the second half - for plushenko it meant doing it in the first half. The idea of there being no trying and no effort and everyone actually being dumb and not just turning out to be really dumb is what I disagree with.
- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
My opinion is that he didn't think he needed it so he didn't include it. A double loop is the easiest thing ever for him (especially when he can do 3L off of practically a standstill). At 2010 Russians he didn't have 3-jump combo. At 2010 Europeans, he didn't attempt a 3-jump combo. At 2009 Cup of Russia, he didn't even attempt 3 combinations, let alone a 3-jump combo. Clearly, he wasn't intending on putting it in his Olympics FS. So either nobody ever told him that he needed it, or because he kept winning without it (and convincingly at that) he never saw it as an issue. Not arrogance, just oversight. I bet nobody ever told him, hey maybe put some more of your jumps in the second half. I'm sure if these oversights had resulted in a loss, he'd surely have implemented them in his 2010 FS and have a 2nd gold medal to show for it, but unfortunately it was at the Olympics that it became apparent that not maximizing his score could actually affect his placement. And he obviously made some efforts to maximize his scoring potential, like putting a quad in the SP and adding spin positions that he normally doesn't do in an effort to increase the levels, but he didn't do everything he could.
If Plushenko competes in Sochi, and wants to have a shot at the podium, he will need 2 quad attempts in his FS, he will need to max out his 3-jump combo, he will need top levels on his spins and footwork, he will need to balance the jumps in both half of his program, including putting difficult jumps in his 2nd half for the bonus. He will also need to increase the difficulty in his choreography between his elements (again, his choreography was 5th and transitions were 7th in his Vancouver FS, which was clean... so clearly the judges aren't going to give him PCS marks just because he skates clean). Even varying the direction in which he skates around the rink is an absurdly simple change that would likely benefit his scores. Unless he can magically transform his skating ability and programs to become on par with those who will likely get higher PCS, he'll need to skate practically clean to beat them. He can't afford to leave out a jumping pass or Zayak his jumps or not maximize his levels or combos. If his performance in 2010 lost to a quadless Lysacek, you can bet that the current crop of men will give him an even greater run for his money. Hopefully he can recover though, because his presence would certainly make the men's competition more interesting.
As I pointed out, that is your opinion, how would you know what he thought at the time? You just repeating these opinions over and over again to make the impression that Plushenko is arrogant (at least at 2010 Oly) without any solid proof to back you up. And the story is really old.
And Plushenko said he plans to move 70% of the jumps to the second half (he had two versions of his LP this year but his injury preventing him from performing the more complex version. And he put 4 jumps to the second half of LP at RN, the injury also preventing him from doing 2 quads. Actually he took the risk by even performed 2 quads (one in Sp, one in LP) at RN since he lost a lot of training time from the back treatment. And he said couple of times that he needs 2 quads in his LP to have the chance to medal. So stop worrying for him not thinking maximize his points, he knows what he should do.
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- Jan 25, 2013
I did provide solid proof to back up my opinion -- he didn't include the 3-jump combo in all three of his competitions leading up to the Olympics. And surely he must have known by then that it amounted to points being left on the table if you didn't execute a 3-jump combo... but it might not have been apparent to him because he still won by great margins. If he competed at the 2010 Worlds, I can bet you he would have had the 3-jump combo back in there and changed his jump layout.
I also wasn't aware of him saying he plans to move 70% of his jumps to the second half. We have yet to see that, but sure, let's say his injury prevented him from taking advantage of the 10% bonus. Then why at Euros in his SP did he have his combination in the first half instead of trying for the second half bonus?!
I'm not really concerned with him attempting the jump content he thinks he'll need in Sochi -- I'm sure after the 2010 debacle he'll take the measures to do that. I'm more interested to see if he'll actually do program-related changes like more transitions into and between jumps, and less stops, and more multi-directional skating.
You have the fact but do you live in his mind? Can you say for sure that he was being arrogant to leave out the combo deliberately? Besides your facts are all back in 2009-2010. That is in the PAST, OK!!! So no need to discuss about that over and over again. He apparently put 3-jumps combo in in his recent competition, isn't it? And I just do not understand why people like to discuss something years ago with all the assumptions. Move on!!!
He said that he has a version of 70% jumps in the second half after RN where he put 4 jumps in the second half. Just to update you on Plushenko's news a bit since you do not follow his activities, the first version of his LP is with 6 jumps in the first half (test skate and probably JO), but at RN, the layout of the program is significantly different. You can say that his back loaded program is just an imaginary program, that is up to you, but I just want to point out to you that he is aware of the bonus part.
As for the SP, I think probably because of his injury he could not train properly so he kept his SP from last year, which is front loaded one. But that does not mean he does not know to put at least one jump in the second half will give him bonus. His abandoned SP (using blue music) had a version with a jump in the second half.
Save your wish, you just have to wait until Sochi to know what would be his Olympic version of the programs. By saying you wish he put more transitions, blablabla, to me, sounds like you want to make the impression that Plushenko probably would not improve on these, which he does and apparently still like none existing in some people's eyes.
For Plushenko trying to maximize points in a program with 2 quads at the Japan Open in 2012 meant a 6/2 layout. He and his team had a different and wrong view of maximizing points the best way for him. You are not even trying to recognize that to maximize points for himself there is no 3 jump combo and there is a 6/2 layout of jumps. That is how they tried to maximize points for Plushenko not with COP. They should have tried to maximize points in COP not for Plushenko! Maybe in 2010 worlds there would have been no 3 jump combo to maximize points maybe their view of maximize points would have been 6/2 like the 2006 Olympics in jump layout but without a 3 jump combo or maybe with the 3 jump combo but 6/2 layout. You continue to assume the leaving out of the 3 jump was arrogance and bravado and "I'm better than all you" and had nothing to do with points maximizing!
The double loop at the end of his three jump combo in Torino was horrendous! Look at that double loop he did in Torino. It was barely done. Plushenko was making errors on 3 jump combos all the time! 4/3/3 in SLC, 4/3/2 in Torino and maybe it was the same thing in training for Vancouver no matter where he put the jump. Maybe even a 3/2/2. Maybe he had just an ideological position not to do a 3/2/2 after doing a 4/3/3 and a 4/3/2. It doesn't have to be arrogance.
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- Jun 3, 2008
If he had done a double Loop at the end of the combo with a step out and a negative Goe, we would say now that if he had not done that loop he would have been gold medalist. Or If takahashi had not tried the 4F his program might have been different and he would have won. If Lysacek had 1.23 points less on the sp, Plushenko wouldnt need the double loop. There are many ifs, which dont matter now, I just think that he had great chance to win in Vancouver concidering the field and he didnt, Sochi field is very very different.
Go watch his RN's LP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fydd6Pjjho0
He was not in a good shape so his moments were not as sharp. Just to show you that his program changed significantly from JO's version.
This is his simple version. But since we will never see the more advanced version, we will never know. But again, using his past programs to assume he would do the same in Sochi (if he compete) or not understanding COP is foolish. But maybe it is better for some people to think that way.
You are right. Actually I have no problem with opinions of him not possible to win, but not in such argument: repeating old stuff in order to reflect/assume his not yet created Olympic programs.
Exactly! Saying just do a double loop and backload as if that was the only thing that would have been good is so wrong! The winner was quadless. Why not just do everything the gold medal winner did! Why not just repeat the 2008 or 2009 world LP's! Lysacek certainly didn't change a thing from March 2009 to February 2010 in international competition.
I decided to look at the Protocol instead
http://fsrussia.ru/upl/results/1213/rusnat2013/rusnat2013.pdf
So he has a 4/4 layout and level 2 spins and you are right this was his pre surgery deteriorated disc verging on disaster performance so it's really not right to judge either this or JO as a Sochi preview!! I mean he had a disc replaced and certainly Euros 2012 showed a lot better.
I agree with a lot you write on most things Plushenko related. Like all the stuff about having programs designs proposed just to infer that he couldn't do them! LOL!
No quad triple but 3 jump combo! That is plushenko jump maximizing in this competition.
- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
I never said it was arrogance to leave out the 2L, just oversight on his part. It would be like doing only 7 passes when you're allowed to attempt 8, or only 2 combos when you're allowed to do 3. He complains that the judges underscored him, which might have been true, but part of the blame goes to him and his team for leaving out the 2L. As pointed out he seems to have gotten a handle on jumping passes. But it's the choreography that still needs development. Russian Nationals was great for him technically and his program complexity is better than in 2010, but still not at the level of the other top guys.
You said very clearly that it wasn't jus an oversight it was a deliberate feeling that he didn't need it because of the completion of the 4/3 and 2 3's. That it was a oversight of a very deliberate nature because he was fully confident that those three things were all he needed to win! It's just a few posts up- or in a different thread as their are two plushenko oriented threads going. Anyway I even agreed I was deliberate because it was his version of actual point maximization because he had developed a very bad habit of stepping out of every three jump combo! Surely they were aware of other ways to Do a three jump combo as theyre not blind!
Also I have to totally take issue and hope to believe that you mean He needs development in ways to do choreography that gets the most points in cop but doubt it. It probably means that he has to develop choreographically for the first time in his career.
I think I also contradicted my self by saying his team was not dumb but were dumb. Not dumb in trying to get the best way for plushenko to do every jump he is capable of in Vancouver but dumb in no realizing that was no the best way together the most points. Obviously you didn't even need a quad for most points! So maybe they thought they could trade 3 jump combo for being the only one with a 4/3 and a 3a. But 2l doesn't guarantee he would have got all the 2l points at all! 2l could have meant fall and straight -3 a across the board or 2l< with negative 2's across the board!
Also I have to totally take issue and hope to believe that you mean He needs development in ways to do choreography that gets the most points in cop but doubt it. It probably means that he has to develop choreographically for the first time in his career.
I think I also contradicted my self by saying his team was not dumb but were dumb. Not dumb in trying to get the best way for plushenko to do every jump he is capable of in Vancouver but dumb in no realizing that was no the best way together the most points. Obviously you didn't even need a quad for most points! So maybe they thought they could trade 3 jump combo for being the only one with a 4/3 and a 3a. But 2l doesn't guarantee he would have got all the 2l points at all! 2l could have meant fall and straight -3 a across the board or 2l< with negative 2's across the board!
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- Jan 25, 2013
He lost because his programs were inferior and he assumed that if he landed jumps, he would win. To flat out say "I don't have transitions" (which arguably implies that he doesn't need them) was a stupid thing for him to admit because even after acknowledging it, he didn't do anything about. He basically named his flaw instead of saying "I'm working to increase the transitions in my skating". For the most points, Plushenko would have needed a better program (including transitions). Having the quad helped him make up for the fact that his choreography was inferior to Lambiel, Takahashi, Lysacek, etc. If he did just a 3-3 in his SP he would have been behind Lysacek and Takahashi, and if he did no quad in his LP, his score would have been less than what it was. It makes no sense to think if he didn't attempt quads, his score would be higher because the judges were looking for a program without a quad (when really they were looking for programs with good content and not just hard jumps, imagine that). And your point about avoiding the risk of falling on a 2L... Why attempt the quad and two 3As then? It's certainly riskier than attaching a 2L on his 3-jump combo.
I'm saying that he deliberately didn't include the 2L in his FS because its exclusion wasn't detrimental to him easily winning the competitions prior to the Olympics. I would bet that he thought that if he landed a 4T and two 3As, who would care if he did a measly 2L? Had he lost by a few points in prior competitions or if his wins had been closer he would have seen the need to add more points. I wasn't the one saying that's him being arrogant, and even said that he wasn't arrogant for excluding that. It's silly to imply that a skater is being arrogant or not because nobody can tell what the skater is thinking or what program they have on paper - they can only see the program they execute which is presumably the program they're most comfortable with.
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