After 11 years of Medals, Michelle was denied one in Moscow. Some skating fans are delighted with this happening; others are in tears; still others like me, and apparently Dick are annoyed with her for her choices after the 2002 Olys. (Dick gave a few jabs at Marshalls; I want to give a punch.)
What can be done, if it is not too late.
1. Will she really get the CoP message now?
2. Will there be any 3x3s in the competition and not just in practice?
3. Other than the trade mark change of edge spiral, will there be any other Moves in the Field?
4. Will there be any transitions leading into elements particuarly jumps?
5. Will there be any GP events this coming season? Are they necessary?
6. Will Kimmie beat her at the next Nationals.
7. How much ground does she need to gain to be competitive with the present top three Worlds?
8. Can Michelle win the Olympics without doing anything about the above and rely on her traditional presentation?
(One has to think that the judges are looking for big tricks. In my opinion, the PCS scores are an after thought.)
Excellent questions and some excellent comments by Show42. I am going to just make some general comments, instead of going point by point.
First of all, she can definitely get back on the podium. She missed it by about 0.5 and that is with a FALL on a triple in the LP, and a poorly skated QR. Of course she can skate better, but so can Shizuka, et al. who missed the podium in 2005. What it did show was that the judges still respect her. They absolutely creamed Shizuka when she made mistakes.
The reason Michelle gets so much criticism about not doing much to further her skating is that she has been around for 11 years during which she went through some major improvements in her skating. Compared to that, the improvements in the last few years have been tiny, which is understandable. I don't think the sport has passed her by, but other skaters have added more jump difficulty, spin positions, etc. The COP made it almost mandatory to have good footwork and transitions throughout the program, and not just one small portion of the program. Michelle was very good in this area when she worked with Lori Nichols. She has regressed in the last few years, just concentrating on skating clean, with a simpler choreography, and a lot of emotion. It is not enough anymore, under the COP. She needs to get back to that kind of choreography. I see that she has improved the power in her jumps and added some variations to the spins. She needs to do more of this, particularly the spins. She was the pioneer in the change of edge spiral. She needs to retain the strength of it, but avoid the Sasha like variation she is doing in her spiral sequence. If she has to keep something at level 1, my recommendation would be the spiral, unless she can come up with more innovation in it.
Michelle's biggest weakness in the 2005 season was her lack of familiarity with the new system. It is a choice she made consciously, I believe because she is still shooting for that OGM that has eluded her for so long. Anyone else would have retired by now. I do believe she has intentionally 'stagnated' in an effort to make one long push in the Olympic year. I believe she will familiarize herself with the new system, change her programs accordingly, and enter 2 GP's this season. She needs the feedback more than she ever did.
Irina is the best example of how to use the COP to her benefit. Michelle needs to find her own way to do so. I think she will need to be competitive with Sasha- now a two time world silver medallist, who is on the rise, and Carolina Kostner who has the big tricks, great speed, and who will have the support of the home crowd in Torino. To me, Kostner still appears juniorish but the judges are willing to give her high marks even when she makes mistakes. IMO she will be a major roadblock in Michelle's way, as she was in Moscow. In my mind Irina is still a question mark in Torino. Was this season a fluke? Will her health be still good? Will the COP rules be different and now allow her the advantages she had in 2005? Irina could win it all, or not even make the podium. Still, she is definitely one to contend with. Michelle will need high base marks to contend with any of the top skaters because she simply cannot depend on some of them making mistakes, even if we were to assume she will have two perfect skates in Torino.
Is Michelle capable of actually winning the OGM? (I know this was not the original question, but I took the liberty to bring it back). On paper, yes. In reality she will need a 3-3 combination, because the judges go for the big tricks as we saw in 1998 and 2002. IMO the only skater than can win without a 3-3 is Sasha, because her spins are spectacular, although her overall skating quality is not as good as Michelle's. Those are HER big tricks. I think the judges still respect Michelle, but she should not have to depend on others' mistakes to win a medal (and she cannot win the OGM simply depending on those).
Can she be beaten by Kimmie Meissner at nationals? Yes, if she makes 2 mistakes and Kimmie lands a CLEAN triple axel and skates a clean program. I believe the USN judges will still have a 6.0 mind set and they will go for the jumps. Right now I see Kimmie as a junior skater with a lot of potential. That is not enough to beat Michelle if both skate clean, and Michelle does not have a 3-3 combo.
Michelle's biggest strengths are- skating quality, and the will to win. So I do see her back on the podium next year. However, I am among those fans who will not be satisfied with just a podium finish in Torino. I want to see her win the OGM. I do believe it will be her swan song, win or lose.
Vash
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