Canadian Ladies: Where do they go from here?

[chuckm]

There are no longer Qualifying rounds for any of the ISU Championships.

If Canada earned two spots for JW, then there will be two spots. Two of the three JGP ladies will likely fill these spots.

There is only one spot for 2013 Worlds, and so far Osmond is the only one who has earned the minimum TES requirements for both SP and FS. If Lacoste fails to earn the FS TES minimum between now and Worlds, she cannot go even if she wins the Canadian championship (which IMO is highly unlikely anyway).

 

[hohoho]

Chuckm, I guess we share the same view that Nationals is Osmond's to lose, especially if she places ahead of Lacoste at SCI. And if Lacoste does not get minimum TES at SCI and CoC, I am sure that SC would prefer to have the national champion going to Worlds. Does this mean that if Lacoste wins Nationals again, that SC will not announce ladies until after 4CC again if Lacoste doesn't have minimum TES? Minumum TES wasn't an issue last year and SC still wanted to try and get Phaneuf through to Worlds.

 

[chuckm]

Lacoste has had her chance to show what she can do at Worlds, and she wasn't even close to finishing top 10: 16th, 10 total points away from 10th.

Osmond has a far better chance of finishing top 10 at Worlds 2013, thus securing two spots for Sochi.

Sorry, Lacoste is done. Stick a fork in her.

 

[hohoho]

I am thinking Lacoste is hoping to be in the mix for Sochi. with the current group of yonung girls progressing, that may not be an option.

 

[mskater93]

Lacoste has had her chance to show what she can do at Worlds, and she wasn't even close to finishing top 10: 16th, 10 total points away from 10th.

Osmond has a far better chance of finishing top 10 at Worlds 2013, thus securing two spots for Sochi.

Sorry, Lacoste is done. Stick a fork in her.

I thought Lacoste looked pretty good at SLC. She did a 3F and tried a 3Lz for the first time in...well, a long time...

 

[hohoho]

Anyone have a video of her from SLC? I know it is available on icenetwork for a fee. To me the optimal word, mskater, is "tried". At these events you have to "do". Events are getting short for Lacoste to get the minimum TES. Will the pressure get too much at SCI going head to head with Osmond? And knowing she requires that score?

 

[Mrs. P]

Anyone have a video of her from SLC? I know it is available on icenetwork for a fee. To me the optimal word, mskater, is "tried". At these events you have to "do". Events are getting short for Lacoste to get the minimum TES. Will the pressure get too much at SCI going head to head with Osmond? And knowing she requires that score?

Well she already has the TES requirement in the SP. She only missed it in the FS by .01, so I think it's well within her grasp to get it at her GPs.

ETA: For the record. Amelie Lacoste scored 161.63 (59.14 SP; 102.39 FS) compared to 170.19 (55.68 SP; 114.51 FS) for Kaetlyn Osmond at Nebelhorn.

 

[hohoho]

Will the pressure to get that extra 0.01 and over the 48 TES score in her freeskate make her collapse? At SLC she knew she had SLC and SC. Since then she has received CoC. She has to stop popping jumps and do what is planned. Didn't she take jumps out in SLC? Perhaps she should do more summer/fall comps leading up to the senior B and GP events.

 

[Mrs. P]

Will the pressure to get that extra 0.01 and over the 48 TES score in her freeskate make her collapse? At SLC she knew she had SLC and SC. Since then she has received CoC. She has to stop popping jumps and do what is planned. Didn't she take jumps out in SLC? Perhaps she should do more summer/fall comps leading up to the senior B and GP events.

I really don't think she was that bad in SLC. Not perfect -- yes she popped two jumps and some low levels -- but a solid start early in the season. She also seemed more confident then I saw her last season.

 

[chuckm]

Here's what Amelie landed in her SLC FS:
2z, 3f, 3lo, 2a, 3s, 2lo, 3lo+2lo

That is far from her planned content; in fact it seems as if she ad libbed the entire performance. 102.39 is a very high score for a program with 4 triples and only one combination. It's doubtful she would score anywhere near that high for that performance in the GP.

 

[Mrs. P]

Here's what Amelie landed in her SLC FS:
2z, 3f, 3lo, 2a, 3s, 2lo, 3lo+2lo

That is far from her planned content; in fact it seems as if she ad libbed the entire performance. 102.39 is a very high score for a program with 4 triples and only one combination. It's doubtful she would score anywhere near that high for that performance in the GP.

And for contrast, here is Kaetlyn's layout:
3F+2T, 3Z, 2A+3T, 3S 3F 3T<< (fall) 2A-2T-2T. She had five non-UR triples, just one more than Amelie (though she definitely had more difficulty with 3Z, 3F (2), 3S, 3T vs Amelie's jump landings: 3F, 3L (2), 3S). I would also argue that 114 is high for what a similar layout would get in the GP.

Senior B's are just somewhat inflated in general, I think.

I don't have skin in the game for either -- may the best lady win. But the overall scores difference between their respective senior Bs is less than 9 points, which is a lot but not insurmountable for Amelie to make up for that later in the season.

I think we'll have a better idea when they face off at Skate Canada.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

I think it's more likely for Osmond to improve her jump content than LaCoste, though.

 

[chuckm]

I don't have skin in the game for either -- may the best lady win. But the overall scores difference between their respective senior Bs is less than 9 points, which is a lot but not insurmountable for Amelie to make up for that later in the season.

The difference between 10th place at 2012 Worlds and 16th place (where Amelie finished) was just 10 points.

Nine points IS a big difference. Osmond has the edge in technical difficulty and competition nerves and has proven herself to be quite a consistent performer. Lacoste has more experience, but despite that she is a shaky competitor and the high-value jumps elude her under pressure. At nearly 24, Lacoste is unlikely to improve either her jump repertoire or her consistency.

 

[Mrs. P]

The difference between 10th place at 2012 Worlds and 16th place (where Amelie finished) was just 10 points.

Nine points IS a big difference. Osmond has the edge in technical difficulty and competition nerves and has proven herself to be quite a consistent performer. Lacoste has more experience, but despite that she is a shaky competitor and the high-value jumps elude her under pressure. At nearly 24, Lacoste is unlikely to improve either her jump repertoire or her consistency.

I acknowledge that it is a big difference. All I'm saying is I'm not in the "she's done" camp based on what I saw at SLC. She seemed more confident despite her mistakes. As I said in the SLC thread -- there's a fire lit up in her and it was lit up further when she missed the TES minimum by .01.

 

[Skater Boy]

The difference between 10th place at 2012 Worlds and 16th place (where Amelie finished) was just 10 points.

Nine points IS a big difference. Osmond has the edge in technical difficulty and competition nerves and has proven herself to be quite a consistent performer. Lacoste has more experience, but despite that she is a shaky competitor and the high-value jumps elude her under pressure. At nearly 24, Lacoste is unlikely to improve either her jump repertoire or her consistency.

Unless she is like Akiko or Maria Butyrskaya, perhaps a late bloomer - mind you they were trying the more difficult triples and landing them far more than Lacoste and both have far more panache and style.

 

[skateluvr]

I have not read this long thread but I am very impressed with Osmond. Love her style/attack in her spanish LP. I think she is only hope and might be our next Jro. It just takes one great lady to push the others along. Lacoste is just so so-Canada should have a deep ladies field. I wish!

 

[mskater93]

Will the pressure to get that extra 0.01 and over the 48 TES score in her freeskate make her collapse? At SLC she knew she had SLC and SC. Since then she has received CoC. She has to stop popping jumps and do what is planned. Didn't she take jumps out in SLC? Perhaps she should do more summer/fall comps leading up to the senior B and GP events.

She seemed more upset with herself and more determined based on her tweets after missing by 0.01 (than pressure). SLC surprised me as I didn't expect her to have that much attack. She looked like a deer in the headlights at 4CC and Worlds but at SLC she was DETERMINED. I think the whole have to prove herself repeatedly after beating Phaneuf 3X to earn that World spot got to her last season but she's rededicated and determined. We shall see as the season progresses, though

 

[hohoho]

Hopefully Lacoste is determined. Unlike last year, she had the highest scores going into Nationals. As mskater93 said she beat Phaneuf 3X. Watching Osmond's program from Nebelhorn, Lacoste maybe the chaser this year. That is where I am thinking the pressure at SC will come from - beating Osmond

 

[Skater Boy]

While I wish Lacoste well she doesn't have the "it" factor imho. I know she is someone's daughter and I am sure she is a nice person. But even Phaneuf stood out; Lacoste kind of reminds me a bit of Jennifer Robinson who won because well Canada was so weak. She was pleasant but did not stand out as a skater.

 

[chuckm]

She seemed more upset with herself and more determined based on her tweets after missing by 0.01 (than pressure). SLC surprised me as I didn't expect her to have that much attack. She looked like a deer in the headlights at 4CC and Worlds but at SLC she was DETERMINED. I think the whole have to prove herself repeatedly after beating Phaneuf 3X to earn that World spot got to her last season but she's rededicated and determined. We shall see as the season progresses, though

Amelie was SO determined that right off the bat she doubled the lutz that was meant to be 3z+2lo+2lo. She may not have looked like a deer in the headlights, but she sure skated like one, doubling jumps and leaving out all but one combination. She wound up on the podium at SLC because most of the competitors did even less than she did.