GP Speculation-2013-2014: THE LADIES

[chuckm]

Here's a list of GP 'guarantees' after Worlds 2013 data has been added. I have edited World Ranking lists to remove 2010-2011 points and reduce 2011-2012 points to 70% of their value.

Top 12 at Worlds are guaranteed two GP events each. * = Seed
* Yuna KIM
* Carolina KOSTNER
* Mao ASADA
* Kanako MURAKAMI
* Ashley WAGNER
* Gracie GOLD
Zijun LI
Kaetlyn OSMOND
Adelina SOTNIKOVA
Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA
Mae Berenice MEITE
Akiko SUZUKI

The top 24 on World Rankings and/or Seasons Best Lists are guaranteed at least one GP event each.
The lists below do not include the top 12 at Worlds 2013

Top 24 World Rankings AND Seasons Best:
Julia LIPNITSKAIA
Kiira KORPI
Mirai NAGASU
Christina GAO
Valentina MARCHEI
Agnes ZAWADZKI
Elene GEDEVANISHVILI

Top 24 World Rankings only:
Viktoria HELGESSON
Alena LEONOVA
Joshi HELGESSON
Amelie LACOSTE
Polina KOROBEYNIKOVA
Elena GLEBOVA

Top 24 Seasons Best only (some of these may be on JGP):
Angela WANG
Satoko MIYAHARA
Elena RADIONOVA
Hannah MILLER
Anna POGORILAYA

Possible RETURNING SKATERS who have previously finished top 6 at Worlds; can get 2 GP events:
Alissa CZISNY
Miki ANDO

 

[ivy]

How many slots are available at each GP? Am I remembering correctly that this past season not all slots were filled?

From your list does that mean Mirai is the #3 ranked US skater internationally and Christina #4?

 

[FSGMT]

Thank you for calculating all of this! The "Top 24 Seasons Best only" list is especially interesting: will JSF give the host pick to Miyahara? Will Radionova/Pogorilaya debut in the Senior GP during the Olympic season? My opinion is that Radionova should stay Junior, since she can win everything there (= gain WR points and a lot more medals) and she's not Sochi-eligible, but I would like to see Pogorilaya in the Senior GP... Alissa Czisny might get a SA spot if she skates well in at least a summer competition, I think it will be a fight between her and Zhang for the host pick, since Mirai, Christina and Agnes will probably receive other spots... I don't think that Hicks is going Senior, since she hasn't been to the JGPF yet. A couple of other thoughts: will Makarova receive one spot? Will Alena receive two spots?

 

[chuckm]

Miyahara might get a GP invitation on the basis of her SB rank; it is possible that she could also get JPN's host pick. She is very small, but she is 15.

Radionova is debatable. She isn't age-eligible for Sochi, but is for the GP (I believe 2013-14 is the last season 14-year-olds will be eligible for the GP). It's 50-50 whether the Russian fed will nominate her for the GP---why give their Sochi eligibles the competition?

Makarova is #28 on WR and #26 on SB. The Russian fed could nominate her for the GP, but I' doubt they'd give her a host pick---Pogorilaya is more deserving and has more potential. But Ksenia is high on the SB list so she could get a substitute event; she would be attractive for hosts because she isn't much of a threat for their own ladies.

Alena Leonova is on both WR and SB and should get two invitations since she was the 2012 World silver medalist.

Hicks HAS been in the JGP. She won a gold medal in 2011-2012, then broke her leg at her second event. This past season, she won silver at her first event and was 4th at her second. She isn't top 24 on any list, so either she will do JGP again or get a host pick. Personally, I feel she needs a lot more polish and isn't quite ready for the GP yet.

Alissa Czisny has a shot at 2 GPs as a skater returning from injury. If she gets that status, she won't need the host spot at SA.

Gao, Zawadzki and Nagasu should get two invitations but you never know. Angela Wang is the interesting one. Will she have to do the JGP yet again, or could she get a host pick?

 

[silverlake22]

I'd say Hicks should stay junior, if she goes senior she likely needs a host pick and has little chances to get a 2nd event. Miller and Wang I think are ready for GP and I'd love to see them get 2 assignments, don't know how likely that is but we'll see. I don't mind if Czisny gets a spot but with her being injured and out for so long, I'd be disappointed to see her get 2 after being MIA this entire season and ending her last competitive season on a disastrous note - I'd rather see someone like Zawadzki, Wang, or Miller get a 2nd GP instead (Zawadzki can probably get 2 anyways though).

I think it would be smarter for Radionova to stay junior too, but that doesn't seem to be the trend of the young talented Russian girls: Adelina, Liza, and Julia all moved up to the GP 1 season after JGP even though they were not fully age-eligible, but then again, they are old enough for Sochi and Radionova isn't, and now there are only 2 spots anyway. I would like to see Pogorilaya compete on the GP, but I wonder with the 2 spots issue, if the Fed just keeps her in JGP another season and let's Radionova move up instead, on the basis that Radionova dominated the JGP this season, and with 2 spots Pogo has very slim chances to make the team anyways. If there were 3 spots I would think Pogorilaya would be moving up with more certainty, but now I am not sure. Biryukova and Shelepen struggled so much this season and are not on any list, only hope realistically is a host pick, Korobeynikova had a tough season too but she'll get at least 1 event due to WS. Even Agafonova could be in the mix for a host pick because she skated so well at the Russian Cup Final (provided she continues to skate like that). Is it numerically possible for Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaya, Radionova, Pogorilaya, and Leonova to each get 2 GPs and then Korobeynikova 1, or is that too many spots? If so, Radio or Pogo is likely out, though it's hard to say which one.

 

[Jammers]

Wang is someone that needs to get at least one GP assignment next season. She along with Gracie is the future of US skating i think. She has no major weaknesses other then burying herself in the SP. Hicks needs lots of polish and Agnes just isn't reliable.

 

[coolboogie22]

I just hopping that Mirai Nagasu will get 2 GP assignments (2013-2014 season), I just can't believe that the US federation always judge her severely. The others federations give good score at Mirai Grand Prix and this year, she looks fit and strong especially.

Consider that she was 4th at Vancouver 2010, I thing that she deserve to have 2 GP spot for an olympic season. She is a hope for the USA and a great talent

 

[TontoK]

Ashley and Gracie - 2 each
I'd also like to see Christina get 2; after all she made it to the GP Finals.
Alissa - host pick to SA only. That's it. Nothing else. Now... if she suddenly skates like a house afire, then she can hope for the second one to open up when a committed skater pulls out. She simply doesn't deserve anything more.
Agree about Hicks staying junior. There's a lot of talent there, but I don't think she's ready for the bigtime yet.
I'm not savvy enough to comment on Wang.

 

[Jammers]

I just hopping that Mirai Nagasu will get 2 GP assignments (2013-2014 season), I just can't believe that the US federation always judge her severely. The others federations give good score at Mirai Grand Prix and this year, she looks fit and strong especially.

Consider that she was 4th at Vancouver 2010, I thing that she deserve to have 2 GP spot for an olympic season. She is a hope for the USA and a great talent

The USFS doesn't decide on what happened 3 years ago when deciding on how many GP events someone gets. It's how they skated in the current season. Top 12 at Worlds get 2 GP events and top 24 in Seasons best or World rankings gets 1 GP event.

 

[chuckm]

How many slots are available at each GP? Am I remembering correctly that this past season not all slots were filled?

There are 10 spots at each GP event.
Three spots are host picks (may or may not include seeds or skaters placing 7-12 at worlds)
Two slots go to seeded skaters, and two more, to skaters who placed 7-12 at worlds.
The rest of the slots are chosen from the top 24 on the World Ranking and/or Seasons Best list.

From your list does that mean Mirai is the #3 ranked US skater internationally and Christina #4?

No. I took out all the skaters who placed in the top 12 at worlds from the World Ranking and Seasons Best lists.

Mirai is #23 on the WR list and #15 on the SB list
Christina is #16 on the WR list and #16 on the SB list.

 

[AlexRus]

Also JGPF Winner and WJC Medalists.
Elena RADIONOVA
Julia LIPNITSKAIA
Anna POGORILAYA

 

[silverlake22]

Just realized there can be up to 3 skaters from one country per discipline at ALL GP events, not just the ones in the host country, so now I think it is likely we may see Tuk, Sot, Lip, Radio, Pogo, and Leonova each with 2 GPs, plus with Shelepen now representing Israel she is no longer in the mix for a host spot so that helps the odds of someone like Gosviani.

 

[AlexRus]

Radionova is debatable. She isn't age-eligible for Sochi, but is for the GP (I believe 2013-14 is the last season 14-year-olds will be eligible for the GP). It's 50-50 whether the Russian fed will nominate her for the GP---why give their Sochi eligibles the competition?

Makarova is #28 on WR and #26 on SB. The Russian fed could nominate her for the GP, but I' doubt they'd give her a host pick---Pogorilaya is more deserving and has more potential. But Ksenia is high on the SB list so she could get a substitute event; she would be attractive for hosts because she isn't much of a threat for their own ladies.

Alena Leonova is on both WR and SB and should get two invitations since she was the 2012 World silver medalist.

Radionova is not seriously debatable.
She is one of the best Russian skaters, 2nd at SrNationals, 11 in Season Best (and third in Season Best of Russian Ladies), her Skating School CSKA is very influential.
At GP she has good chance to Final and even medal in Final.

Makarova can not be very interesting for Federation. Two poor seasons, maybe she will stop competitive skating at all.

Leonova had poor results in season, and her not too serious look on her results is visible. So may be she will not be very-very interesting for Federation.

Lipnitskaia and Pogorilaya on results of season are No 3 and 4 of Ladies, who are or at next season will be Senior. So Federation is interested in them, because of third spot for Euro and need of Substitutes for Olympics and Worlds.
Gosviani is also interesting for Federation - senior age, nice skating, good (moderately, but good) results of season, progress with respect to previous season means chance to further progress.

Lipnitskaia, Pogorilaya and Gosviani are addition to leaders - Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva. Most probably Federation will support at first these five (and also Radionova).

 

[chuckm]

Also JGPF Winner and WJC Medalists.
Elena RADIONOVA
Julia LIPNITSKAIA
Anna POGORILAYA

JW and JGPF medalists are no longer guaranteed GP events. That happened after singles were reduced from 12 to 10, and dance from 10 to 8. That doesn't mean those skaters WON'T get GP events, it's just not guaranteed. Lipnitskaia obviously has already been on the GP and will be again this season. Radionova and Pogorilaya may get events----or not.

 

[AlexRus]

JW and JGPF medalists are no longer guaranteed GP events. That happened after singles were reduced from 12 to 10, and dance from 10 to 8. That doesn't mean those skaters WON'T get GP events, it's just not guaranteed. Lipnitskaia obviously has already been on the GP and will be again this season. Radionova and Pogorilaya may get events----or not.

2.2 (e) of Annunce.
They are included in Selection process after Top12 Worlds, Returning, Top24 Rating, Top24 Season Best, before skaters who have Season Best lower than Top24.
In practice if they are in Top24 Season Best - it means two Events.

 

[chuckm]

2.2 (e) of Annunce.
They are included in Selection process after Top12 Worlds, Returning, Top24 Rating, Top24 Season Best, before skaters who have Season Best lower than Top24.
In practice if they are in Top24 Season Best - it means two Events.

No, it doesn't. The only skaters GUARANTEED two events are the top 12 at Worlds. Figure it out yourself, looking at the list of those on the WR and SB lists.

Here's how it works:
1. Each host federation is entitled to 3 host picks, who can be, but do NOT have to be top 12 at Worlds or on the top 24 of the WR and/or SB lists.
2. Each host must select two seeds: one from 1-3, and one from 4-6
3. Each host selects two skaters from those who finished 7-12 at Worlds, or any returning skaters who have finished top 6 in the previous two World championships

After those selections, there may be as few as 3 singles slots per host, or 18 altogether for all of the hosts. There are 18 ladies on the WR and SB lists. Obviously, there aren't enough slots for all 18 ladies to get two events each. That's why two spots are guaranteed for the top 12 at Worlds, but not for the top 24 on the lists.

 

[silverlake22]

JW and JGPF medalists are no longer guaranteed GP events. That happened after singles were reduced from 12 to 10, and dance from 10 to 8. That doesn't mean those skaters WON'T get GP events, it's just not guaranteed. Lipnitskaia obviously has already been on the GP and will be again this season. Radionova and Pogorilaya may get events----or not.

If their names are submitted for GP events Radionova and Pogorilaya WILL get at least 1 event due to being on the top 24 SB list. What is up in the air is if they get 2 events or only 1, and this uncertainty could cause either or both girls to opt to stay on the JGP another season instead. Personally I think they could both hold their own on the senior GP and would likely have a good chance to get 2 assignments each, especially with COR taking place in Russia so host spots being available, however, the decision is up to the girls and their coaches.

 

[ForeverFish]

I see no reason not to give Radionova at least one GP assignment--why not CoR? She may not be eligible for senior ISU events next season, but she and her coaches would appreciate the practice for this coming quadrennium. And Radionova herself has expressed the desire to skate against the world's top ladies and see where she fits in. At this point, she can't realistically contend against any of the younger seniors (Tukt, Sotnikova, Gold, Li, Osmond) in semi-clean form, but that's no reason for the Russian Fed to stagnate her progress by keeping her on the JGP when she's already demonstrated that she can outskate every single one of them.

 

[b-man]

Lipnitskaia got two GP's this year. Radionova, as succeeding junior world champion, should and probably will get two assignments in the coming year.

 

[AlexRus]

No, it doesn't. The only skaters GUARANTEED two events are the top 12 at Worlds. Figure it out yourself, looking at the list of those on the WR and SB lists.

Here's how it works:
1. Each host federation is entitled to 3 host picks, who can be, but do NOT have to be top 12 at Worlds or on the top 24 of the WR and/or SB lists.
2. Each host must select two seeds: one from 1-3, and one from 4-6
3. Each host selects two skaters from those who finished 7-12 at Worlds, or any returning skaters who have finished top 6 in the previous two World championships

After those selections, there may be as few as 3 singles slots per host, or 18 altogether for all of the hosts. There are 18 ladies on the WR and SB lists. Obviously, there aren't enough slots for all 18 ladies to get two events each. That's why two spots are guaranteed for the top 12 at Worlds, but not for the top 24 on the lists.

In theory - yes. If there are 9 "returning" (it is theoretically possible because of two seasons of "return", up to 6 skaters each season) and all 18 home-picks are not of "Tops" (Top-12 of World, Top-24 of WS and SB) - only Top-12 of Worlds and 9 "returning" will occupy all 42 non-home-picks.

In practice situation wery differs from it.
Many home-picks are of "Tops", somebody WD, etc. Newer were so many "returning" skaters.

Season 2013/2014.
There are 14 guranteed (Top-12 of Worlds, two "returning" and we don't know will they really return).
12 of Top-24 of WS (others are in 14 guranteed).
12 of Top-24 of SB (others are in 14 guranteed).

Home-picks are often known.

USA will pick:
Wagner (or less probably Gold).
One or two of Nagasu, Zawadski, Gao, Miller, Wang (Miller and/or Wang - if they will not at JGP). None or one of "non-tops".
So two or three home-picks will be of "tops", only one may be not of "tops". Two not of "tops" are not very probable because many US Ladies in "top".

Canada will pick Osmond and Lacoste, both of "tops".
Third place may be for Junior (Daleman or Seguin not of "tops") or foreign skater if both Daleman and Seguin will be at JGP. Foreign will be most probably of "tops".
So Canada also will have none or 1 home-picks not of "tops".

China will pick Zijun Li, Chinese skater not of "tops" (Zijun Li is the only Chinese at "tops") and Chinese or fogeign skater (which may be of "tops").
So China has 1 or 2 home-picks not of "tops".

Japan will pick Asada, Suzuki or Murakami (both of "tops") and third Japanese skater of "tops" (Miyahara, Haruka Imai ?) or not of "tops".
So Japan also will have none or 1 (more probably) home-picks not of "tops".

France will pick Meite (of "tops"), Gilleron-Gorry (not of "tops"), maybe Silete (if she restores) or foreign (foreign of "tops" most probably).
France has 1 or 2 home-picks not of "tops".

Russia will pick Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva and two other Russian skaters.
One of them may be not of "tops" only if all Russian "tops" have two GP Events (or maybe Russia will give home-pick to Gosviani when Leonova or Korobeynikova has only one GP Event, chance for them to get one more Event by Substitute is high).

So we see maximum 7 "non-tops" at home-picks (excluding Russia).

14 guaranteed - 28 spots. 24 Tops on WS and SB - 24 spots.
Total 52 spots.
Plus 7 non-tops in home-picks - 59.
So even in worst case Radionova has 2nd GP Event on results of JrWorlds.
In practice Pogorilaya also (case hardly will be worst), or home-pick.
Lipnitskaia has 2 GP Events as "twice top" - on WS and SB, so she does not need GP Enent on JrWorlds result.