- Joined
- Jun 3, 2009
You know, each of these four disciplines presents some fascinating questions here and that will play out for the rest of the season. So, from least interesting to most interesting (with predictions)
Ladies
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Akiko Suzuki
3. Elizaveta Tuktamisheva
4. Mao Asada
5. Kiira Korpi
6. Christina Gao
I think the top two could flip around; that the next three will be in any order and that Gao will be last. Wagner winning this would be huge. I think it would erase any doubts that she’s the real deal this season – an honest to goodness Champion skater. Hey, the last time the Worlds were in Canada, an American won (Meissner, 2006). And the time before that (Kwan, 2001). And the time before that (Kwan, 1996). And the time before that (Trenary, 1990). Just sayin’.
Suzuki winning this would be equally huge. It would force the hand of the Japanese federation, give her a real boost overall, and just invigorate the rest of the season for us fans. That’s my wish. A strong second would be terrific, but not have the same effect.
Tuktamisheva wants to rubber stamp a trip to Euros/Worlds, and a medal here’s the ticket. Asada wants to erase a poor victory with a great skate. Korpi’s the stealth bomber here. She can out-PCS Tuktamisheva and Suzuki and out-TES Asada. She could sneak in to steal bronze if she has a major skate and the others falter.
Gao will be last and thrilled with the experience of competing in the GPF, something none of us saw at the beginning of the season.
Pairs
Okay, this is a truly fascinating event. Not because it’s a contest for gold – V/T will step onto the ice and on top of the podium in the same moment. But because afterwards, it’s just a massive scramble.. So, from bottom to top....
In sixth, we’re gonna see Mt/M. No disrespect intended, but they haven’t been skating THAT well. It’s disappointing, because they have made MASSIVE improvements in the off season – her form is a lot better, they’re going for a broader range of choreography and that SP especially is just dense with complex movements. They’re not in danger of losing that 2nd spot, not really, but the way they’re skating won’t be enough for Canada to get a third spot at Worlds. Which is disappointing.
In fifth, it’ll be Pang/Tong. They aren’t skating THAT well, and their PCS advantage won’t be enough to overcome poor BV.
In fourth, the unfortunate K/S reside. I think it’ll be telling where they place in the grand scheme of Russian politicking. If they start getting beaten by B/L, it’s all over. They’ll make it to Sochi as also-rans. If they don’t, the race for Sochi becomes more interesting.
In third, I believe D/R have enough. A well skated D/R will have something above 33/63 in BV’s for their two programs and will earn positive GOEs on everything but the SBS Lutz (and that’s not a given). They are REALLY jamming the technical element content, but they’re also pushing themselves with their transitions and choreography – very demanding. On the one hand, that means they’re unlikely to skate clean. On the other hand, it means they can absorb errors VERY easily. Don’t be surprised to see a clean D/R break 65/130. They won’t be clean, but the marks will still be there.
In 2nd, it’s B/L. Hopefully they take the momentum of the NHK and run with it. They aren’t a great team by any means, and they’ve got to hope for a lenient technical caller on their jumps, but their lifts and twist are GOE earners, and their PCS are fine for a team with very little in the way of presentation (which is weird because of their history).
So
1. Volosozhar/Trankov
2. Bazarova/Larionov
3. Duhamel/Radford
4. Kavaguti/Smirnov
5. Pang/Tong
6. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
Though really, any organization from 2-5 wouldn’t surprise me.
Dance
1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Pechalat/Bourzat
4. Boborova/Soloviev
5. Cappellini/Lanotte
6. Ilynikh/Katsalpov
D/W: Peak earlier and longer, have the highest TES and PCS of the season. V/M need to be completely on form to beat them, and I don’t think we’ll see that yet.
V/M: Are they gonna be closer to D/W or P/B? P/B’s first competition score was greater than V/M’s, and that never happens.
P/B: Shame that their work ethic is in service to two mediocre programs, but they feel the fire and believe they can challenge the top two. They will be working like mad.
B/S: How close can they get to P/B. More important to separate themselves away from I/K and close the gap on P/B though. Huge improvements in the off season will aid that.
C/L: Their first GPF since the Olympic season. They need to be closer to the top two in Europe. I’m curious if they can do it.
I/K: It’s an honour to be here.....
Men
This is a genuine five way race for gold, I think.
1. Yuzuru Hanyu
2. Patrick Chan
3. Daisuke Takahashi
4. Javier Fernandez
5. Takahiko Kozuka
6. Tatsuki Machida
Yuzuru Hanyu: Massive BV and great GOEs when he’s clean; errors easily absorbed; PCS higher than what he deserves. The future star earning those dominant scores today
Patrick Chan: Improved artistry leading to higher PCS earlier (92.70 at CoR is his best ever internationally). I think he’ll peak at the GPF this season, contrary to history. If he’s clean, he’ll have a tremendous lead, but let’s be honest.....
Daisuke Takahashi: Will be working like mad to match Hanyu, but will likely require mistakes from the top two and a WTT level skate.
Javier Fernandez: Prone to mistakes still, and his errors can be deleterious.
Takahiko Kozuka: The third man in a nation with many third men. Would need a SOHL but he can do it.
Tatsuki Machida: The fourth man in a nation with many third men.
Ladies
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Akiko Suzuki
3. Elizaveta Tuktamisheva
4. Mao Asada
5. Kiira Korpi
6. Christina Gao
I think the top two could flip around; that the next three will be in any order and that Gao will be last. Wagner winning this would be huge. I think it would erase any doubts that she’s the real deal this season – an honest to goodness Champion skater. Hey, the last time the Worlds were in Canada, an American won (Meissner, 2006). And the time before that (Kwan, 2001). And the time before that (Kwan, 1996). And the time before that (Trenary, 1990). Just sayin’.
Suzuki winning this would be equally huge. It would force the hand of the Japanese federation, give her a real boost overall, and just invigorate the rest of the season for us fans. That’s my wish. A strong second would be terrific, but not have the same effect.
Tuktamisheva wants to rubber stamp a trip to Euros/Worlds, and a medal here’s the ticket. Asada wants to erase a poor victory with a great skate. Korpi’s the stealth bomber here. She can out-PCS Tuktamisheva and Suzuki and out-TES Asada. She could sneak in to steal bronze if she has a major skate and the others falter.
Gao will be last and thrilled with the experience of competing in the GPF, something none of us saw at the beginning of the season.
Pairs
Okay, this is a truly fascinating event. Not because it’s a contest for gold – V/T will step onto the ice and on top of the podium in the same moment. But because afterwards, it’s just a massive scramble.. So, from bottom to top....
In sixth, we’re gonna see Mt/M. No disrespect intended, but they haven’t been skating THAT well. It’s disappointing, because they have made MASSIVE improvements in the off season – her form is a lot better, they’re going for a broader range of choreography and that SP especially is just dense with complex movements. They’re not in danger of losing that 2nd spot, not really, but the way they’re skating won’t be enough for Canada to get a third spot at Worlds. Which is disappointing.
In fifth, it’ll be Pang/Tong. They aren’t skating THAT well, and their PCS advantage won’t be enough to overcome poor BV.
In fourth, the unfortunate K/S reside. I think it’ll be telling where they place in the grand scheme of Russian politicking. If they start getting beaten by B/L, it’s all over. They’ll make it to Sochi as also-rans. If they don’t, the race for Sochi becomes more interesting.
In third, I believe D/R have enough. A well skated D/R will have something above 33/63 in BV’s for their two programs and will earn positive GOEs on everything but the SBS Lutz (and that’s not a given). They are REALLY jamming the technical element content, but they’re also pushing themselves with their transitions and choreography – very demanding. On the one hand, that means they’re unlikely to skate clean. On the other hand, it means they can absorb errors VERY easily. Don’t be surprised to see a clean D/R break 65/130. They won’t be clean, but the marks will still be there.
In 2nd, it’s B/L. Hopefully they take the momentum of the NHK and run with it. They aren’t a great team by any means, and they’ve got to hope for a lenient technical caller on their jumps, but their lifts and twist are GOE earners, and their PCS are fine for a team with very little in the way of presentation (which is weird because of their history).
So
1. Volosozhar/Trankov
2. Bazarova/Larionov
3. Duhamel/Radford
4. Kavaguti/Smirnov
5. Pang/Tong
6. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
Though really, any organization from 2-5 wouldn’t surprise me.
Dance
1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Pechalat/Bourzat
4. Boborova/Soloviev
5. Cappellini/Lanotte
6. Ilynikh/Katsalpov
D/W: Peak earlier and longer, have the highest TES and PCS of the season. V/M need to be completely on form to beat them, and I don’t think we’ll see that yet.
V/M: Are they gonna be closer to D/W or P/B? P/B’s first competition score was greater than V/M’s, and that never happens.
P/B: Shame that their work ethic is in service to two mediocre programs, but they feel the fire and believe they can challenge the top two. They will be working like mad.
B/S: How close can they get to P/B. More important to separate themselves away from I/K and close the gap on P/B though. Huge improvements in the off season will aid that.
C/L: Their first GPF since the Olympic season. They need to be closer to the top two in Europe. I’m curious if they can do it.
I/K: It’s an honour to be here.....
Men
This is a genuine five way race for gold, I think.
1. Yuzuru Hanyu
2. Patrick Chan
3. Daisuke Takahashi
4. Javier Fernandez
5. Takahiko Kozuka
6. Tatsuki Machida
Yuzuru Hanyu: Massive BV and great GOEs when he’s clean; errors easily absorbed; PCS higher than what he deserves. The future star earning those dominant scores today
Patrick Chan: Improved artistry leading to higher PCS earlier (92.70 at CoR is his best ever internationally). I think he’ll peak at the GPF this season, contrary to history. If he’s clean, he’ll have a tremendous lead, but let’s be honest.....
Daisuke Takahashi: Will be working like mad to match Hanyu, but will likely require mistakes from the top two and a WTT level skate.
Javier Fernandez: Prone to mistakes still, and his errors can be deleterious.
Takahiko Kozuka: The third man in a nation with many third men. Would need a SOHL but he can do it.
Tatsuki Machida: The fourth man in a nation with many third men.
I'm not going to predict the placement because I'm not good at it.
