How much should U.S. Nationals count for World team selection?

[gkelly]

Actually, the problem was that the rules were not nebulous. The Japanese Federation had a precisely defined point system -- so many points for such-and-such placement in this or that event. Most points wins.

When they invented the system, Miki was way out in front. But after a fall season that was so-so at best, her point total was starting to slip. When it came to Japanese Nationals, where she finished 6th, the only way to save her was for Yoshie Onda to place ahead of Yukari Nakano. Otherwise Nakano would end up with more points than Ando.

Whew! A close call. Onda was placed fourth, Nakano fifth, despite howls of protest from the onlookers. The charge was that Miki had a lot of corporate sponsors and the Japanese federation would lose money if Miki did not make the Olympic team.

...the Japanese federation apparently learned their lesson. Now they have gone to a nebulous system of "we will take these competitions into account" -- but in the end, we will send whoever we like.

So do you think the JSF instructed the judges in 2006 to make sure Nakano didn't finish more than one place ahead of Ando at Nationals (or however that would be worded to achieve the desired effect) because they needed Ando to make the team for sponsor reasons? And the new change is so that they can let the judges judge honestly and still name the team they need to please the sponsors?

Or do you think they're sorry that the 2006 rules locked themselves into a situation where fixed point values for two seasons worth of past competitions including nationals, plus an honestly judged but debatable nationals result, forced them to send the 5th- instead of 3rd-best age-eligible skater based on the 2005-2006 fall season + nationals?

 

[Tonichelle]

Exactly! And were you made by a committee? No. QED.

*in darth vader-esque voice* I AM the committee.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

^ And also a perfectly valid reason for USFS to resist kowtowing to the BigWigs at NBC and the Media and not put Cohen on the team despite her showing she clearly wasn't ready. That's one situation where the Committee got it right. The real debate was Nagasu or Wagner, and Wagner had already been to worlds and bombed. So they made the right call by sending the top 2.

I wonder if there is a repeat of 2009 this year, whether there will be a change in team selection in the future.

I do think the Committee will go with the Nationals results on the basis of tradition. I'm not crazy about secret meetings either and who is to say that one vip in that committee would order the results to be based on the Nationals. The decision making could be a Catch 22 with the results of the Committe the winner in agreement with the Nationals.

The USFS knows who will be able to do their best at Worlds. It can control the Nationals as well as the Committee. Will it?

 

[Mathman]

So do you think the JSF instructed the judges in 2006 to make sure Nakano didn't finish more than one place ahead of Ando at Nationals (or however that would be worded to achieve the desired effect) because they needed Ando to make the team for sponsor reasons? And the new change is so that they can let the judges judge honestly and still name the team they need to please the sponsors?

Or do you think they're sorry that the 2006 rules locked themselves into a situation where fixed point values for two seasons worth of past competitions including nationals, plus an honestly judged but debatable nationals result, forced them to send the 5th- instead of 3rd-best age-eligible skater based on the 2005-2006 fall season + nationals?

For the first paragraph, I don't know, but I hope that the judging was honest. I believe this was about the time the head of the Japanese federation together with six members of the board of directors were forced to resign for running a scheme whereby contractors would overbill the Federation, then pay a kickback to the federation president. He claimed that he used the money, not to enrich himself, but to provide benefits for the skaters who made the world and Olympic teams.

I do think, though, that Nakano caught them by surprise that year, winning NHK and finishing ahead of Ando in the Grand Prix Final. All of a sudden the Federation was hoist by their own petard. The very point system that was supposed to guarantee that Arakawa, Ando, and Suguri made the Olympic team (Asada was too young), now was about to force them to send the much-less-well-connected Nakano instead.

As for the reason why they made the change in the rules this year I think it is more like what you wrote in paragraph two. I think the powers-that-be wanted to make darn sure that from now on everything will come out the way they want it to. Powers-that-be are like that. That is why they are the powers-that-be.

I wouldn't be surprised if the powers-that-be in USFS are looking longingly down that same path. They may be debating making changes in the selection procedure just like we are.

(All of this is just the idle speculation of an outsider, of course. )

The USFS knows who will be able to do their best at Worlds.

Oh, gosh, I do not agree with this at all. I don't think USFS's crystal ball is any better that yours or mine, when it comes to guessing who will do well at Worlds.

I think the only thing the USFSA big-wigs can do is take their best shot, then -- like us -- cross their fingers.

 

[Layfan]

First, I think there is a pretty good chance of an exact[/i repeat of 2009. Alissa skates a clean short program and is way ahead, She falls twice in the LP but still gets enough PCSs to hold off the others.

Rachael lands seven triples for second place. Mirai falters. The team is Alissa and Rachael.

At Worlds...

Well, you get the idea.

But seriously, I think the handwriting is already on the wall as far as moving in the direction that you and Joe are advocating. The USFSA gave quite a bit of publicity last year to its "new" (although it wasn't really) list of prioritized events that the committee is supposed to consider.

If they had no intention of ever considering them, why would they go to the trouble of making a list?

So the committee may have the last laugh after all.

I still don't like it. I want to compete in the World Championship. Let me go to U.S. Nationals and skate for it. If I beat the other guy, how it is fair for a "committee" to come along behind me and say, "tough cookies, we are going to send the other guy anyway."

The USFSA has 170.000 members, representing 170 clibs. They sponsor hundreds of events and and support 900 learn to skate program. (I just looked this up. ) They ought to do the right thing and not obsess over formulas and committees and ISU events. Good guys always win!

Well, no, sometimes the bad guys win.

...Never mind.

If that happens, I predict there will be just as many instances of our U.S. teams faltering at worlds - and much grumbling and speculating from fans and pundits about how the U.S. champ or silver or bronze medalist would have done if THEY had been allowed to go.

 

[ivy]

I agree that the USFSA can't guess any better then the rest of us as to who will do well at Worlds. That's why Nationals isn't the best metric to use. The most recent international events are a clearer signal - unfortunately the schedule, as it exists now, puts all the big international events (GPs & GPF) months before worlds except for 4CC, which American skaters treat like a poor cousin of Worlds. A ladder of increasingly important events leading towards Worlds makes more sense to me. At least they should hold off deciding on the Worlds team until after 4CC.

 

[janetfan]

If Alissa should be blackballed by the psycho-talkers here for finishing 11th - then I say by all means let's not forget Flatt's disappointing 9th place finish. She must be banned too.

Ashley also had a bad placement once too so she is also out of consideration.

The committee decides Mirai's sloppy LP gets her the hook as well.

Christina and Agnes will represent the Ladies this season since the others are all proven failures.

Long live the committee.

 

[gmyers]

European countries send all there best to Europeans but 4CC because it is in Asia a lot of the time means that the USFS wont ever send its best there because of the travel. So because 4CC is off limits there is no way to really see if those who are the best at Us nationals will still be great for Worlds in March. So if 4CC could be used as a barometer it could be useful like Europeans to judge who goes to worlds.

 

[R.D.]

First, I think there is a pretty good chance of an exact[/i repeat of 2009. Alissa skates a clean short program and is way ahead, She falls twice in the LP but still gets enough PCSs to hold off the others.

Rachael lands seven triples for second place. Mirai falters. The team is Alissa and Rachael.

At Worlds...

Well, you get the idea.

If Nagasu falters as you mention above, chances are she will not make the team. But what about Wagner? She's always a factor this time of year and finds some way to sneak into the equation. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you see it), she ends up taking herself out of it, but she cannot be counted out initially.

But seriously, I think the handwriting is already on the wall as far as moving in the direction that you and Joe are advocating. The USFSA gave quite a bit of publicity last year to its "new" (although it wasn't really) list of prioritized events that the committee is supposed to consider.

If they had no intention of ever considering them, why would they go to the trouble of making a list?

The first time they deviate from order of finish when they don't HAVE to, is when I will take that seriously.

 

[R.D.]

The USFS knows who will be able to do their best at Worlds. It can control the Nationals as well as the Committee. Will it?

I don't think they KNOW, per se, but they can certainly take an educated guess. Sort of like what we are doing in this thread.

I take it USFS thinks they are being fair by using Nats results specifically to determine World and Oly teams. But with the crazy judging going on lately, maybe it wouldn't be a huge stretch for them to begin taking other results into account.

If Alissa should be blackballed by the psycho-talkers here for finishing 11th - then I say by all means let's not forget Flatt's disappointing 9th place finish. She must be banned too.

The committee needs to look at the BIG PICTURE. Out of the two skaters, who has a history of being more consistent? Scoring more points? Most importantly, what (who) are the other options?

Say I were the committee (Yes, I know, you don't need to remind me that I'm not) and Nagasu and Czisny were the top 2, with Flatt 3rd. As the champion, being on an upward trajectory this season, Nagasu goes. Say that Czisny at least medaled at GPF, did respectable for herself. Then I might go ahead and stick to sending the top 2. But if she is mediocre, or bombs GPF, and I have to choose between her and Flatt who finished a close 3rd at Nats, but managed to medal at GPF with a strong performance, then I might leave Czisny at home and put Flatt on the team instead. Something like that, anyway.

And before people raise a stink...I would make DOUBLY sure the skaters are aware of the situation and know that Nats results are only Nats results, and the ENTIRE season is taken into account when deciding the team. SO there are no surprises, digs, [insert your word here], etc.

ETA: The other option is to send the questionable skaters to 4CCs and say, higher finisher gets the Worlds spot...but due to scheduling matters, 4CCs is not as convenient for Americans as the Euros is for Europeans.

 

[Mathman]

European countries send all there best to Europeans but 4CC because it is in Asia a lot of the time means that the USFS wont ever send its best there because of the travel. So because 4CC is off limits there is no way to really see if those who are the best at Us nationals will still be great for Worlds in March. So if 4CC could be used as a barometer it could be useful like Europeans to judge who goes to worlds.

There is still the problem of how to decide who goes to Four Continents.

But as R.D. suggests, we could do it like this. Say Mirai wins U.S. Nationals, with Christina Gao second , Rachael third and Alissa fourth. Then you could send Christina, Rachael and Alissa to Four Continents. The worlds team would be Mirai plus whichever of the other three scored highest at 4CC.

 

[ivy]

There is still the problem of how to decide who goes to Four Continents.

But as R.D. suggests, we could do it like this. Say Mirai wins U.S. Nationals, with Christina Gao second , Rachael third and Alissa fourth. Then you could send Christina, Rachael and Alissa to Four Continents. The worlds team would be Mirai plus whichever of the other three scored highest at 4CC.

Works for me, the idea that winning Nat'ls guarantees a spot to World seems OK given the current schedule and the way slots at Worlds are assigned. And as far as scheduling/travel the USFSA and the ISU should work on that to make 4CC more meaningful.

 

[Mathman]

I take it USFS thinks they are being fair by using Nats results specifically to determine World and Oly teams.

I think the principal reason is tradition. USFS has been sending its national champions to Worlds since before Four Continents and the Grand Prix were even so much as a gleam in Cinquanta's eye.

I can well imagine that the old-timers in the U.S. skating community would bristle at the idea of trashing U.S. Nationals and giving pride of place to these pip-squeak non-entities.

And before people raise a stink...I would make DOUBLY sure the skaters are aware of the situation and know that Nats results are only Nats results, and the ENTIRE season is taken into account when deciding the team. SO there are no surprises, digs, [insert your word here], etc.

To me, that is the whole key. Any system is OK as long as it is clearly and precisely delineated ahead of time so that everyone knows what's what before the season begins.

That is why I still can't wrap my arms around the committee. If you just say vaguely that the committee will decide however they want to decide, then the skaters will feel that the USFSA pulled the rug out from under them when the committee says, "No, never mind all the wonderful stuff you did this season, we think someone else is even more wonderful." Sez who?!

To me, the only way out is to have a clear and transparent point system -- so many points for placement at Nationals, so many points for placement in the Grand Prix Finals, etc.

The problem with that is the same as the problem with the current set-up. What if the "wrong" skater ends up with the most points?

 

[janetfan]

The problem with that is the same as the problem with the current set-up. What if the "wrong" skater ends up with the most points?

Again - I smell the fear of competition. I happen to like the system the way it is.
But RD's idea has some merit - particularly if the rules are made known.

So now we could try out a new qualifying system - and already you write "what if the wrong skater ends up with the most points"

See, that type of thinking - "pageant thinking" I call it that still can't accept that somebody besides your favorite won. If a new system has a fair enough point distribution how in the world could the wrong skater win? :think:

Isn't there ever a point where some of you will be able to deal with the fact that in competitons somebody wins, and others are disappointed.

I don't think any system is more FAIR than letting them skate for it at Natls. The worst and most unfair thing I can think of is to let politics in the form of a committee take over.

"Dear Alissa, you beat them all but two years ago we were not happy with the way you skated. You are not being selected even though you won /scored the most points."

Ridiculous, and very unfair not to mention totally unsporting. Pageant thinking will never get the best results and best team. Only competition can do that in sports.

 

[R.D.]

^ It's NOT about favorites. It's about picking the strongest team. I mean, think about it- even if you did it my way, you would still have people complaining that their favorite should have gone to worlds based on their 2nd place Nats finish or whatever. You can't please everyone.

 

[janetfan]

^ It's NOT about favorites. It's about picking the strongest team. I mean, think about it- even if you did it my way, you would still have people complaining that their favorite should have gone to worlds based on their 2nd place Nats finish or whatever. You can't please everyone.

That is the point of Natls as the winner take all event. Sports, competition, and no politics.
If we see some in the judging - well let's never forget gkelly's words of wisdom - "judges are human."

I don't think I could follow a sport that had both questionable judging topped off with backroom selection committees playing politics. That would be too much like a pageant for my taste, and too far away from a sporting event.

If a new system using points for various events is set up - I don't think the wrong skater can win unless we use the mentality that "winning equals losing."

But the system could definitely have flaws.

What if Christina skates lights out and wins Natls? She could do it but not make the team under a points system since she competed as a junior this season and might not have enough points.

That would feel not only unfair to me but sort of guarantees the best skater would not be selected for the Natl team.

I am sure the JSF is praying for Mao to come out of her funk. It will be a mess if she bombs at Natls and is still selected for the team. Either Miki, Akiko or Kanako will be left with such a bad feeling because they were not beaten on the ice but in the backroom.

The three of them already outskated Mao at the GP this season. What if they also beat her at Natls? Then it will get down to politics.....and not sports or fair competition.

 

[Mathman]

See, that type of thinking - "pageant thinking" I call it that still can't accept that somebody besides your favorite won.

You utterly misunderstood my post.

I was ridiculing the idea of a the "wrong" skater winning. The concept of the "wrong" skater winning is the committee idea. This concept is not acceptable, in my opinion.

Here is what's right. State the criteria clearly. Whoever wins, wins.

What I was saying is that a point system would not meet the objections of people who want a committee to decide.

If a new system has a fair enough point distribution how in the world could the wrong skater win? :think:

The wrong skater could not win. The winner would be, by defintion, the right skater.

Nevertheless, I think such a point system, though preferable to a "committee," is still inferior to the system we have now, winner take all at U.S. Nationals.

 

[gkelly]

European countries send all there best to Europeans but 4CC because it is in Asia a lot of the time means that the USFS wont ever send its best there because of the travel.

My understanding is that USFS almost always offer Four Continents to the top finishers at Nationals, but often -- especially when it's held in Asia -- several of the world team members decide that they'd rather go home and prepare for Worlds on a relaxed schedule than interrupt training for a week of travel and competition. So the top skaters decline the invitation and the alternates get to go.

The exception is Olympic years, when the schedule between Nationals and Olympics is much tighter than between Nationals and Worlds, so they specifically don't want the Olympic team trying to squeeze another competition into those few weeks.

Say I were the committee (Yes, I know, you don't need to remind me that I'm not) and Nagasu and Czisny were the top 2, with Flatt 3rd. As the champion, being on an upward trajectory this season, Nagasu goes. Say that Czisny at least medaled at GPF, did respectable for herself. Then I might go ahead and stick to sending the top 2. But if she is mediocre, or bombs GPF, and I have to choose between her and Flatt who finished a close 3rd at Nats, but managed to medal at GPF with a strong performance, then I might leave Czisny at home and put Flatt on the team instead. Something like that, anyway.

And before people raise a stink...I would make DOUBLY sure the skaters are aware of the situation and know that Nats results are only Nats results, and the ENTIRE season is taken into account when deciding the team. SO there are no surprises, digs, [insert your word here], etc.

My objection to this approach is that, depending on the weight you gave to the rest of the season, and previous seasons, relative to Nationals, it could make it almost impossible for a newcomer who has a breakthrough performance at Nationals or a veteran who had a bad year last year and a strong comeback this year to make the team.

Suppose a skater didn't qualify for Nationals last year, didn't skate at Nationals last year because of injury, or was sick/slightly injured at Nationals last year and placed poorly.

This year, they had no fall international assignments.

But they did well in summer nonqual competitions. They did very well at regionals/sectionals.

And they come to Nationals and blow everyone away, including a skater who qualified for the Grand Prix Final, defending national champ, etc. Should the committee take regional and sectional results as well as fall internationals into account when considering "the ENTIRE season"?

Think Rudy Galindo.


And now there's the pesky ISU minimum score requirement for Worlds and 4Cs. A newcomer or veteran making a comeback after 2+ years may not even have a valid international score to qualify with. Is there an international competition between Nationals and Worlds where the skater can go to earn the qualifying score? Probably they'll have to go to that competition instead of 4Cs, since 4Cs also requires them to already have earned the score.

 

[janetfan]

You utterly misunderstood my post.

I was ridiculing the idea of a the "wrong" skater winning. The concept of the "wrong" skater winning is the committee idea. This concept is not acceptable, in my opinion.

Here is what's right. State the criteria clearly. Whoever wins, wins.

What I was saying is that a point system would not meet the objections of people who want a committee to decide.



The wrong skater could not win. The winner would be, by defintion, the right skater.

Nevertheless, I think such a point system, though preferable to a "committee," is still inferior to the system we have now, winner take all at U.S. Nationals.

Yes, you are right I missed your point.

Thanks for explaining and I am pretty much in total agreement with your thoughts on this.

What if Agnes and Christina grab the top two spots at Natls this year?
I would send them to Worlds and not give it a second thought. Many others would disagree but Alissa and Rachael's weak placements at Worlds make me feel as if they are owed no special favors. And if Mirai is as good as some of us hope then she has to prove it by grabbing a spot by the way she skates - and not through a backroom deal.

I believe in what I see and I believe in competition when it comes to sports. I don't see many scenarios where fans playing favorites can choose better than the actual results of a Natl Chanpionship qualifying event. That goes for a committee as well.

 

[Mathman]

And now there's the pesky ISU minimum score requirement for Worlds and 4Cs.

Can you explain exactly what this rule is, please?