But the one time the two of them went head-to-head, at TEB...Nagasu beat Czisny. Even though the latter qualified for the final, I think it's all about SHOWING IMPROVEMENT throughout the season, and Nagasu so far is doing that. JMO.
How much should U.S. Nationals count for World team selection?
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But the one time the two of them went head-to-head, at TEB...Nagasu beat Czisny. Even though the latter qualified for the final, I think it's all about SHOWING IMPROVEMENT throughout the season, and Nagasu so far is doing that. JMO.
I see. And what if the next time they go head to head - at nationals - Alissa is clean and Mirai is not? I know you want to write off Alissa but how about, let's see what happens at nationals? If Alissa beat Mirai at nationals, I think Mirai beating Alissa at TEB is a pretty weak reason to kick Alissa off the team.
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- Jun 21, 2003
Psssst, "USFSA" isn't one individual.
That is a very salient point!
I assume you mean that within the USFSA inner circles there are Mirai boosters, Rachael enthusiasts, and the Alissa clique, just like there are on Internet discussion boards. All the more reason why we don't want to turn imposrtant decisions over to a "committee." The committee will be just like us.
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- Jul 26, 2003
It's discussions like this that make me realize that letting the top 2 at Nationals be the team is not a bad strategy at all.
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- Jun 27, 2003
It's discussions like this that make me realize that letting the top 2 at Nationals be the team is not a bad strategy at all.
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- Jun 21, 2003
We will not have any further opportunity to check out Mirai's progress until Nationals. So any way you look at it, Nationals is the key.
Well, if Czisny gets the upper hand at Nats over Nagasu, assuming a winner that is neither of them, I say it depends on how Czisny does at the GPF. If she medals she should be on the team. Nagasu not doing well at Nats would probably be a step down from TEB and that's a strike against her. I'd probably go with Czisny and the winner except in an extraordinary circumstance- e.g. A close score at Nats, a horrible performance from Czisny at GPF. It's about maximizing chances here...if Nagasu is struggling she's not that much better off at worlds than Czisny anyway. Just look at what happened at worlds this year.
ETA: P.S. Alyssa can't be "kicked off the team" if she's not ON the team yet to begin with.
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Well, if Czisny gets the upper hand at Nats over Nagasu, assuming a winner that is neither of them, I say it depends on how Czisny does at the GPF. If she medals she should be on the team. Nagasu not doing well at Nats would probably be a step down from TEB and that's a strike against her. I'd probably go with Czisny and the winner except in an extraordinary circumstance- e.g. A close score at Nats, a horrible performance from Czisny at GPF. It's about maximizing chances here...if Nagasu is struggling she's not that much better off at worlds than Czisny anyway. Just look at what happened at worlds this year.
ETA: P.S. Alyssa can't be "kicked off the team" if she's not ON the team yet to begin with.
So Alissa gets penalized for making the final. She has to prove herself not once but twice. If that were the way things were done what skater on earth would ever want to make the final in the first place? Why risk it? How is it fair to choose Alissa over Mirai based on Alissa's performance at an event that Mirai didn't even qualify for? If Alissa bombs how do you know Mirai wouldn't have bombed worse? If Alissa finishes fourth, how do you know Mirai wouldn't have finished fifth?
I do agree with this point:
.... and I would add: look what happened with Rachael at worlds last year, since I assume you were referring to Mirai. Which is precisely why whoever skates best at nationals should get to go to worlds - and not a bunch of average performances over the course of this season's GP.
However, this thread is about whether the rules should be changed - and I agree with gkelly that the current bunch of ladies are not the best context to be discussing this hypothetical in the first place, as they are ALL unproven on the world stage.
Ha! Maybe it comes with practice. You made, in once sentence, the same point I tried to make over two posts and using many more words..
For this year, Nat'ls will be the deciding factor in ladies, no skater has the long record of international success to justify jumping ahead of the line, especially compared to the competion. In theory, I would still like to see 4CC and other international competitions given a quantifiable value for world team selection down the line. You could make a case for Davis and White and MAYBE Jeremy Abbott being given precedence over skaters that finish ahead of them at Nat'ls.
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- Nov 12, 2009
I pretty much agree with most of your points, Silverlake, but my question for Joe was hypothetical. It has nothing to do with what I think will or should happen at nationals.... I remembered that he thinks the best possible team is Rachael and Mirai - but as he is also arguing that international results should be taken into account so I just wondered how he reconciles that, seeing as how this season, Rachael and Alissa have done the best so far...
I'm sure USFSA would love to have Mirai on the team. However, I think she'll have to earn it like everyone else.
^ Mathman raises a good question. If Mirai is third, I just don't see USFSA choosing her over the silver or gold medalist - especially since if she finishes third it will mean that Mirai has not yet overcome her troubles this season and in no way could the selection committee comfortably predict she would do better at worlds than anyone else.
Maybe some think the judges will be inclined, consciously or not, to give Mirai especially high PCS - it is possible but that's a whole different can of worms than the one this thread has opened up...
Ok here's what I'm thinking re: Mirai. If she bombs at nationals she's not going to go to Worlds unless everyone else bombs too BUT I do think we could potentially see a situation ala 2009 with Czisny where Mirai skates a great SP that leads but then has a few issues or URs in the FS but still ends up 1st or 2nd overall due to high PCS and her great spins and is named to the World Team. Last year, Mirai was only credited with 3 triples in her FS in the LP, but her score was still high and she was able to hang onto 2nd place, but the year before, Mirai skated what looked like a clean FS but downgrades their did cost her and bumped her off the podium. All I'm saying is I think with Mirai as long as she skates pretty well she will be on the team.
If Alissa was more consistent the same could be said of her but it seems she bombs EVERY time she's in a high pressure situation whereas Mirai doesn't, I mean at nationals in 2009 she was defending champ and injured and crying before her FS but then delivered a clean to the blind eye performance, last season she was in the lead after the SP and Olympic spots were on the line and she still delivered a good FS (again, clean to the blind eye), and at the Olympics she had to skate last after Yuna and Mao made history and Joannie delivered the most emotional performance of the Olympics and she rocked it. I know sometimes she has chocked, but she HAS been able to perform well in pressured situations so that's worth something and further, we saw at Worlds Mirai with many flaws still bested a Flatt with just a few flaws.
Regarding the other spot I think it's up to Christina and Agnes to make a statement. If they skate well, one of them will be on the team. If they don't step it up it just means they aren't soup yet and need a little more time, and they will be assigned to 4CC and/or Junior Worlds and one of Ashley, Rachael or Alissa will be named to the World Team. I really do think though that the USFSA would not be opposed to sending Gao or Zawadzki to senior worlds if they skate up to their potential at nationals. They are the future of the sport and I think most people realize that, the question is more will they be ready to make their mark on the senior international stage at this season's worlds or will they need another year or two to get ready. I tend to think at least one of them will rock it and nationals and show they are ready and be named to the world team, but if not, it's nice to have Ashley, Rachael, and Alissa there are strong skaters we could send to worlds instead.
No, she is NOT penalized.
Risk what? The skaters have the opportunity to prove themselves at Nats. That is the main criterion. But in the case that untested skaters wind up in the top 2 or 3 (and granted, this is rare...usually, the top 2 or 3 are the 2 or 3 best candidates, anyway), making the GPF, and hopefully doing well there- as well as last year's worlds- will ensure that the 2 or 3 strongest skaters ALWAYS get sent. How do you know who's the strongest, you ask? It varies by season. That's why you look at the results from the entire season, and look at past results not for comparison, but to look for a history of mental toughness. Ice is slippery, yes- but if it's a betting game, you want the best hand, right? Again, JMHO.
There is something wrong with this- it's not taking into account that Nagasu also had a shot to qualify for the same event. You would have a point if, say, she was injured and was unable to do the GP. But she did it, and didn't skate well enough to make it. So there we have it...
Well, I don't know. They don't know.
What I DO know, though, is that one skater skated well enough to qualify. The other didn't.
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- May 15, 2009
Yes, very true.
Nationals is the key.......
Nationals has always been the key in the past and will always be the key in the future.
Nationals is the key and is skating nirvana
:yay:
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- Jul 11, 2003
My IF . If Rachael and Alissa both medal at GP Finals, it means they have already beaten the best of the international ladies except one. Does that not tell you something? :sheesh:
What if Christina and Agnes place lst and 2nd at Nationals, does that not confuse you?
What if Christina and Agnes place lst and 2nd at Nationals, does that not confuse you?
You're only as good as your last competition, period.
That saying is true for 99% of the skaters out there, except if you're Michelle Kwan and on top of the world every year. Only then will you be given a bye if injured, fact. I recall Nicole Bobek tried to get one, but was denied because she had just done "Nutcracker on Ice" when she was advised against doing so, but she went ahead and did it anyway one month before Nationals. As a consequence she injured herself and was rightfully denied a bye.
And the ladies we have skating nowadays will get absolutely NO favors whatsoever. None of them did in the past, except Michelle (she's our Yuna Kim), and none of them will do so in the future unless they start WINNING, and by that I mean *multiple* World Titles &/or an Olympic Title on top for good measure. And that's not likely because they ALL are a notch below the phenoms we had in the past, who always managed to at least land 6 jumps, more like 7, skate cleanly & consistently, and do a 3/3 combo. for good measure to ensure WINNING, not just placing well.
The GP & the GPF mean N-O-T-H-I-N-G when you look at the big picture, and by that I mean the history of US Nationals. If you skated lights out you could win on your first try, didn't even have to do the GPS or the GPF, case in point 14 yr. old Mirai Nagasu winning the first time she debuted at Nationals in 2007. In fact she's the only one I can recall winning on her first try at Sr. US Nationals (kinda like 15 yr. old Oksana Baiul winning her first time at Worlds in 1993 or Kimmie Meissner as a 16 yr. old in 2006; the only two to have ever done so on their 1st try!).
That said, no one I see skating nowadays, especially in the junior ranks, is the SECOND COMING, which you will have to be in order to win on your first try. NNN & Sasha came close, but only Mirai succeeded, but then again she wasn't skating against Michelle Kwan (USA's most decorated skater ever), whereas the former were. I'm not saying it couldn't happen again, just that the odds are against it, unless a USA female skater appears out of the blue like Mao Asada; the old Mao armed with both tech. & presentation & a killer 3A to boot!
The GPs are a good time to get your new programs out there, grab a medal to boost your confidence, and make the GPF if you're lucky. A chance to go head-to-head with, hopefully, the best in the world (not the case this time with Yuna not competing & Mao reworking technique). But in the end, speaking from f.s. history, it means nothing when it comes to US Nationals, Worlds, or the Olympics. Each competition stands on its own merit.
So once again I state you're only as good as your last competition.
p.s. I'd rather see Rachael skip the GPF if her injury hasn't improved, and rather work on doing good at US Nationals, where it counts the most! After all the GPF nor any of the GPs will get you to Worlds, ONLY US Nationals will, as history has proven ad infinitum...
That saying is true for 99% of the skaters out there, except if you're Michelle Kwan and on top of the world every year. Only then will you be given a bye if injured, fact. I recall Nicole Bobek tried to get one, but was denied because she had just done "Nutcracker on Ice" when she was advised against doing so, but she went ahead and did it anyway one month before Nationals. As a consequence she injured herself and was rightfully denied a bye.
And the ladies we have skating nowadays will get absolutely NO favors whatsoever. None of them did in the past, except Michelle (she's our Yuna Kim), and none of them will do so in the future unless they start WINNING, and by that I mean *multiple* World Titles &/or an Olympic Title on top for good measure. And that's not likely because they ALL are a notch below the phenoms we had in the past, who always managed to at least land 6 jumps, more like 7, skate cleanly & consistently, and do a 3/3 combo. for good measure to ensure WINNING, not just placing well.
The GP & the GPF mean N-O-T-H-I-N-G when you look at the big picture, and by that I mean the history of US Nationals. If you skated lights out you could win on your first try, didn't even have to do the GPS or the GPF, case in point 14 yr. old Mirai Nagasu winning the first time she debuted at Nationals in 2007. In fact she's the only one I can recall winning on her first try at Sr. US Nationals (kinda like 15 yr. old Oksana Baiul winning her first time at Worlds in 1993 or Kimmie Meissner as a 16 yr. old in 2006; the only two to have ever done so on their 1st try!).
That said, no one I see skating nowadays, especially in the junior ranks, is the SECOND COMING, which you will have to be in order to win on your first try. NNN & Sasha came close, but only Mirai succeeded, but then again she wasn't skating against Michelle Kwan (USA's most decorated skater ever), whereas the former were. I'm not saying it couldn't happen again, just that the odds are against it, unless a USA female skater appears out of the blue like Mao Asada; the old Mao armed with both tech. & presentation & a killer 3A to boot!
The GPs are a good time to get your new programs out there, grab a medal to boost your confidence, and make the GPF if you're lucky. A chance to go head-to-head with, hopefully, the best in the world (not the case this time with Yuna not competing & Mao reworking technique). But in the end, speaking from f.s. history, it means nothing when it comes to US Nationals, Worlds, or the Olympics. Each competition stands on its own merit.
So once again I state you're only as good as your last competition.
p.s. I'd rather see Rachael skip the GPF if her injury hasn't improved, and rather work on doing good at US Nationals, where it counts the most! After all the GPF nor any of the GPs will get you to Worlds, ONLY US Nationals will, as history has proven ad infinitum...
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- Jun 21, 2003
I don't think that would be confusing at all.
If that happened I would think
(a) Mirai is our best skater.
(b) Rachael and Alissa did the best in the Grand Prix.
(c) Agnes and Christina will go to Worlds.
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- May 15, 2009
What did Michelle used to say about the GP?
Something like "it was good for shopping and seeing friends"
Wasn't there a an old story that Irina and Michelle competed harder over the shopping than the skating at the GP
When Worlds came around we saw a totally different Kwan. The game face was on and it was no longer about shopping - but competing at the highest level and winning.
This season the Olympic champion has made it clear that she values Worlds much more than the GP. Why is that?
I suspect Alissa and Rachael will do some sightseeing and shopping at the Grand Pageant Final. The results are not nearly as important to them as Natls. I am not sure if the results are important at all........:think:
If they want to go to the "big show" later this season it will come down to how well they compete at Natls.
For the USA Ladies their trial by fire comes in January.
It is serious business and there will be no shopping or sightseeing. Natls for them is not a pageant - but a very serious competition with alot on the line. Natl medals and a trip to Worlds is what the Ladies will be skating for in January.
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I believe that particular GPF criterion for Worlds has been changed this season and now the highest Japanese finisher in men/ladies at the GPF is no longer automatically guaranteed a Worlds berth -- see the thread about JSF's published criteria for Worlds: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...send-to-Worlds&p=515655&viewfull=1#post515655
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- Feb 17, 2007
Very good question, but let me re-phrase it a little.
If Rachael and Alissa kick butt at the GPF, how many quadruple axels and quinteple loops would Christina and Agnes need to place top 2 at Nationals?
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