How much should U.S. Nationals count for World team selection?

[Joesitz (RIP)]

We will not have any further opportunity to check out Mirai's progress until Nationals. So any way you look at it, Nationals is the key.

But will it convince you?

 

[janetfan]

I believe that particular GPF criterion for Worlds has been changed this season and now the highest Japanese finisher in men/ladies at the GPF is no longer automatically guaranteed a Worlds berth -- see the thread about JSF's published criteria for Worlds: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...send-to-Worlds&p=515655&viewfull=1#post515655

Thanks for the updates on that Sylvia.
So is Japan following Piseev and the Russian system?

I can't tell from that link how the Natl team from Japan will be determined.
It is not written - but sounds like there is alot of room for sponsors to have influence.

Japan Natls and the subsequent naming of the Natl team should be very interesting this season. The Men's team could go to the big three - but have no idea how the Ladies will work out. It is ashame that four Ladies from Japan can't skate at Worlds this season. It would make the event more interesting and competitive.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I don't think that would be confusing at all.

If that happened I would think

(a) Mirai is our best skater.

(b) Rachael and Alissa did the best in the Grand Prix.

(c) Agnes and Christina will go to Worlds.

MM - You have the spirit of the thread. It is not about sending our best skaters to Worlds. It's about keeping our favorites close to our hearts, and acknowledging that the GPs only use is to try out the new costume for the season, and being fair to the podium of one competition. So be it.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

So is Japan following Piseev and the Russian system?

I presume you are saying the Russians are crooks. I disagree and find that in bad taste.

I can't tell from that link how the Natl team from Japan will be determined.
It is not written - but sounds like there is alot of room for sponsors to have influence.

Is there any Federation worthy of sending what they believe to be the best Team? or should all the Federations get homogenized with the USFS and the devil with the ISU?
btw, I am sure there are plenty of American sponsors influencing the Worlds selection especially NBC.

 

[silverlake22]

Very good question, but let me re-phrase it a little.

If Rachael and Alissa kick butt at the GPF, how many quadruple axels and quinteple loops would Christina and Agnes need to place top 2 at Nationals?

It all depends on how well Rachael and Alissa skate at NATIONALS. I don't care if they go 1 and 2 at the GPF, if they bomb at nationals, they won't be named to the World Team. If Christina and Agnes rock it at nationals and beat Alissa and Rachael convincingly there, they will be on the World Team, regardless of what Alissa and Rachael do at the GPF.

Also there is something to be said about the JGPF, Adelina Sotnikova currently has the highest ISU total score for a lady, so if Christina beats her at the JGPF, that would mean she had defeated the lady currently holding the highest score, will that give her an edge going into nationals? Maybe, but like with Alissa and Rachael, she still has to perform well at nationals if she hopes to go to Worlds.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

It all depends on how well Rachael and Alissa skate at NATIONALS. I don't care if they go 1 and 2 at the GPF, if they bomb at nationals, they won't be named to the World Team. If Christina and Agnes rock it at nationals and beat Alissa and Rachael convincingly there, they will be on the World Team, regardless of what Alissa and Rachael do at the GPF.

I can understand your rationale but I do not understand what is meant by convincingly. The first place is a Rule and the second is decided by a committee which normally accepts the entire podium to go to Worlds.

 

[PolymerBob]

The first place is a Rule and the second is decided by a committee which normally accepts the entire podium to go to Worlds.

Yes, the first place is a rule. But my point is .... How is that coveted first place chosen? Do facators outside Nationals go into picking that first place?

 

[Layfan]

No, she is NOT penalized.



Risk what? The skaters have the opportunity to prove themselves at Nats. That is the main criterion. But in the case that untested skaters wind up in the top 2 or 3 (and granted, this is rare...usually, the top 2 or 3 are the 2 or 3 best candidates, anyway), making the GPF, and hopefully doing well there- as well as last year's worlds- will ensure that the 2 or 3 strongest skaters ALWAYS get sent. How do you know who's the strongest, you ask? It varies by season. That's why you look at the results from the entire season, and look at past results not for comparison, but to look for a history of mental toughness. Ice is slippery, yes- but if it's a betting game, you want the best hand, right? Again, JMHO.



There is something wrong with this- it's not taking into account that Nagasu also had a shot to qualify for the same event. You would have a point if, say, she was injured and was unable to do the GP. But she did it, and didn't skate well enough to make it. So there we have it...



Well, I don't know. They don't know.

What I DO know, though, is that one skater skated well enough to qualify. The other didn't.

RD, what in the world are you talking about? Did you read my post? Was my post that incomprehensible?

-YOU said that if Alissa barely edges Mirai at nationals for second place you would still consider Alissa's performance at the GP final before putting her on the team. You said that if Alissa bombs at the GP final and barely edges Mirai at nationals, you might still send Mirai.
-I argued that it would be unfair to make that decision based on Alissa's performance at a competition that Mirai didn't even skate well enough to qualify for.

How is this...

There is something wrong with this- it's not taking into account that Nagasu also had a shot to qualify for the same event. You would have a point if, say, she was injured and was unable to do the GP. But she did it, and didn't skate well enough to make it. So there we have it...

.... a rebuttal to my argument? It sounds like you are reiterating my point. :scratch:

 

[Sylvia]

Also there is something to be said about the JGPF, Adelina Sotnikova currently has the highest ISU total score for a lady, so if Christina beats her at the JGPF, that would mean she had defeated the lady currently holding the highest score, will that give her an edge going into nationals? Maybe, but like with Alissa and Rachael, she still has to perform well at nationals if she hopes to go to Worlds.

Another thing to consider -- 3 of the 8 ladies at the Junior Grand Prix Final have ISU Season Best scores (Senior/Junior GP combined) among the top 8. I've extracted the list below. It's a very strong JGPF ladies field this year! (No, scores can't be considered absolute at this time, but they do give an indication of who has been skating well so far this season... at least in one competition! ).

Here are the top ISU SB scores for the 14 ladies before the Finals (I've bolded the GPF ladies):

1 178.97 Adelina SOTNIKOVA RUS JGP Cup of Austria 2010 (JGPF)
2 174.47 Miki ANDO JPN GP Cup of Russia 2010 (GPF)
3 172.78 Elizaveta TUKTAMISHEVA RUS JGP Pokal der Blauen Schwerter 2010 (JGPF)
4 172.74 Akiko SUZUKI JPN GP Cup of Russia 2010 (GPF)
5 172.37 Alissa CZISNY USA GP Skate Canada International (GPF)
8 167.14 Christina GAO USA JGP Cup of Austria 2010 (JGPF)
11 164.93 Kanako MURAKAMI JPN GP Skate America 2010 (GPF)
12 164.61 Carolina KOSTNER ITA GP NHK Trophy 2010 (GPF)
13 162.86 Rachael FLATT USA GP Skate America 2010 (GPF)
14 161.75 Yasmin SIRAJ USA JGP J. Curry Memorial 2010 (JGPF)
18 155.23 Risa SHOJI JPN JGP Czech Skate 2010 (JGPF)
23 152.92 Polina SHELEPEN RUS JGP Czech Skate 2010 (JGPF)
26 148.26 Zijun LI CHN JGP Czech Skate 2010 (JGPF)
41 134.32 Kristiene GONG USA JGP J. Curry Memorial 2010 (JGPF)

To bring it back (sort of) on topic... I believe the the strength of the respective fields and the overall quality of the individual performances of the skaters/teams are likely to be considered by US Figure Skating's International Committee (ICMS), and not merely total scores or placements at the Final.

 

[janetfan]

I presume you are saying the Russians are crooks. I disagree and find that in bad taste.


.

You presume wrong - and I find it poor taste to misquote people or make up things that were not said.
I never said or implied that the Russians are crooks. Those were your words - and not mine.

I did imply that the Russian and US federations have different ideas about qualifying /selecting a Natl team.
I really don't care how they do it in Russia or Japan for that matter.

I do like the US tradition and I like that the results at Natls carry most of the weight towards selecting a Natl team.

We know what it takes now - a medal at the National Championships. There are also provisions for illness and even for unusual circumstances. There is some wiggle room which fortunately does not get used that often.

Some fans here have come right out and said a good showing by Rachael at the GP/GPF should give her an inside edge for making the Natl team. The same fans have actually said Alissa does not deserve the same consideraion.

That's the part I don't get and could never agree with. If the GP is to carry more weight it must be done fairly for ALL skaters and not just a fan's favorite.

I could mention Alissa is the only US Lady to win a Gold medal at the GP this season, and actually the first to that in several years.
She aslo has posted one of the highest scores of the GP season - and higher than any other American Lady.

If any skater has earned a bit of an edge at the GP so far this season it seems to me - or anybody even remotely fair that it would be Alissa.

Skating has changed since I started watching. There was no GP series back then. I am not against some changes - but am vehemently against decisions made by a committee that might appear political, are based on a hunch or because of a skater's popularity/network prodding.

I also subscibe more to "what have you done for me lately" as opposed to relying on events like '09 Worlds two seasons later.
Lot's of talk and opinions - but where are the ideas about incorporating fairly results from the GP as part of the Natls selection? And aren't they already doing that?

If Evan had missed the Natls podium last season most think a skater would have been bumped based on Evan winning the GPF and being the defending World champion.

Seems to me so much of the whining is not based on terrible results at Natls and is more about a few Flatt fans wanting to get her on the team if she is outskated at Natls and finishes thrid or lower.

I say let Rachael win the GPF like Evan did - and she won't have to worry so much about an offnight at Natls.
But saying it and doing it are two different things. And the selection rules seem fine to me.



.

 

[R.D.]

The reason I initially favored Flatt/Nagasu over Czisny had NOTHING to do with favorites. NOTHING. You guys know where I stand on that topic. I mentioned them because of the competitive history. In a close race I mentioned that competitive history should be taken into account, and this includes Worlds, not just the past GP. Czisny has had two good seasons on the GP, bombed twice at worlds. Mirai skated her best at Olys but tanked worlds. Rachel did well at one worlds, underwhelmed in another. Personally, in a close call (i.e. the decision isn't immediately obvious) I would take those finishes into account. I wouldn't be able to tell you who I would or would not send unless I knew all the results, but given a choice between a more consistent skater and a more inconsistent skater, I would go with the former. That's it- rip into my statement all you want but that's how I feel.

 

[janetfan]

The reason I initially favored Flatt/Nagasu over Czisny had NOTHING to do with favorites. NOTHING. You guys know where I stand on that topic. I mentioned them because of the competitive history. In a close race I mentioned that competitive history should be taken into account, and this includes Worlds, not just the past GP. Czisny has had two good seasons on the GP, bombed twice at worlds. Mirai skated her best at Olys but tanked worlds. Rachel did well at one worlds, underwhelmed in another. Personally, in a close call (i.e. the decision isn't immediately obvious) I would take those finishes into account. I wouldn't be able to tell you who I would or would not send unless I knew all the results, but given a choice between a more consistent skater and a more inconsistent skater, I would go with the former. That's it- rip into my statement all you want but that's how I feel.

Your answer is fine - and thanks for explaining it again.
We just disagree which is OK.
I think you make a few good points and philosophically I can agree with you - about wanting to send the best skaters to Worlds.

I just don't know a better or more fair way than letting them skate for it at Natls.
None of us at GS have a crystal ball and I can guarantee you that nobody on the US Skating intl committee has one either.

I think part of the attraction of skating - and sports in general is that there is no such thing as a sure bet. The chances of upsets, of a skater or team rising to the occassion is part of what makes sports so intriguing and even grand at times.

I think for now the selection process will remain the same - but can see more influence from the GPF or the previosu year's Worlds being considered a little more.

IMO the current group of US Ladies are all in the same doghouse. Mirai almost separated herself by her strong skating at the Olympics. But then came her disastrous Worlds LP and a summer injury. Flatt has become the human UR machine and probably has more calls than any of the other Ladies in the GPF. Her pcs are not so good and the US "committee is not unaware of this.

Ashley is as hot and cold as ever and Agnes withered in both of her LPs this season. Christina has done well but hasn't won either of her two junior events.

For my money Alissa has had the best season and shown if she is on she can outscore most of the other US Ladies.

She is a skater for our federation in good standing. What she accomplishes and wins on the ice should not be taken away for skaters who have demonstrated they are not really doing any better.

For me it still gets down to Natls. Who can take the pressure :think:
That should cheer you up since Rachael doesn't seem to do any better or worse based on pressure.

Maybe Yuka is a better coach than we imagined. Alissa has never looked to be in such good shape. Her programs are nice, and the judges want to score her well if she skates clean.

The GPF will give us another look at two of our skaters. But to pick a team dont we need to see all of them......at Nationals :yay:

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

The GPF will give us another look at two of our skaters. But to pick a team dont we need to see all of them......at Nationals :yay:

Indeed we should and will see ALL the US contenders at Nationals, including the GP finalists again. No one is avoiding the Nats. How much it affect skaters 19-30 in the early groups, we will still judge them. Skaters 1-12 will be scrutinized if the Nats are used soley for selecting the Team. There will be one skater in the group 13-18 which will stand out. Bottom Line is the judges will decide.

 

[silverlake22]

RD, what in the world are you talking about? Did you read my post? Was my post that incomprehensible?

-YOU said that if Alissa barely edges Mirai at nationals for second place you would still consider Alissa's performance at the GP final before putting her on the team. You said that if Alissa bombs at the GP final and barely edges Mirai at nationals, you might still send Mirai.
-I argued that it would be unfair to make that decision based on Alissa's performance at a competition that Mirai didn't even skate well enough to qualify for.

How is this...



.... a rebuttal to my argument? It sounds like you are reiterating my point. :scratch:

No way is Alissa going to bump Mirai off the World Team if Mirai is 2nd and Alissa is 3rd, that's just asking for trouble and for Alissa to bomb at Worlds. GPF doesn't matter, if Rachael and Alissa do well there it will give them more recognition going into nationals and maybe a PCS boost there, but nothing more.

 

[Layfan]

No way is Alissa going to bump Mirai off the World Team if Mirai is 2nd and Alissa is 3rd, that's just asking for trouble and for Alissa to bomb at Worlds. GPF doesn't matter, if Rachael and Alissa do well there it will give them more recognition going into nationals and maybe a PCS boost there, but nothing more.

Guys, sorry if I've expressing myself poorly as this is the second non sequitur to a post of mine.

In any case, I agree Alissa will most certainly not be going to worlds if she is third and if Mirai is third she'll have to watch worlds on TV, too.

I've been arguing that all along.

Silverlake: I think you bring up a good point: Sending a girl to worlds under those circumstances is asking for trouble. Not just Alissa. Think if Rachael skates badly at nats and the committee sends her to worlds in place of the silver medalist. Basically, they are telling her, we're sending you to worlds in place of so-and-so because we think you can place high enough to earn our three spots back, so that is what you better do.

I think Rachael or Alissa anyone would hate to be sent to worlds under those circumstances...The "committee" would look like boneheads if the girl they chose tanked at worlds - or even came up just short. And any lady would know that and it would be asking for trouble.

Maybe that wouldn't be so if the rules were different and US skating had a tradition of taking GP results into account. Maybe the rules or the tradition will be different someday. But this year, it's not going to happen. I don't think anyone is arguing that - certainly not me! - but this thread is about whether things SHOULD be done differently, not about how things will be done in January.

 

[Mathman]

...this thread is about whether things SHOULD be done differently, not about how things will be done in January.

Thank you.

 

[R.D.]

In 2008, Hacker was down the list of skaters to go to worlds when the top 3 were too young. Instead, she was skipped in favor of a struggling Meissner. This is the only situation I remember where the committee deviated from order of finish.

Turns out, wouldn't really have mattered because we lost 3 spots anyway. But again, someone unproven vs. a skater with a successful track record. The choice a betting man would have made, rather than a stickler.

So what do you do if someone like Gilles places over someone like Nagasu and the former is in line to go to worlds?

 

[Mathman]

So what do you do if someone like Gilles places over someone like Nagasu and the former is in line to go to worlds?

Send Gilles. IMHO you have to have rules. Leaving it up to a vote on the Internet skating forums...

 

[Layfan]

In 2008, Hacker was down the list of skaters to go to worlds when the top 3 were too young. Instead, she was skipped in favor of a struggling Meissner. This is the only situation I remember where the committee deviated from order of finish.

Turns out, wouldn't really have mattered because we lost 3 spots anyway. But again, someone unproven vs. a skater with a successful track record. The choice a betting man would have made, rather than a stickler.

So what do you do if someone like Gilles places over someone like Nagasu and the former is in line to go to worlds?

It's an interesting question and I assume you are looking at a scenario in which the medalist are too young to worlds - like in 2008 and the committee would have to decide between a fifth place Gilles or a sixth place Nagasu.

I don't think there's a right or wrong answer, here. It would be an unusual circumstance - and the rules do allow for discretion under those circumstances.

But I say - send Gilles. Sorry if I'm being a stickler. But if Gilles and a bunch of unknown kids beat Nagasu at nationals that tells me that Nagasu is struggling with the skating this year and the betting girl in me could not bet she will do much better at worlds. That was the case with Meissner.

Happily, the betting girl in me does not believe that a bunch of kids AND Gilles will beat Mirai at nationals.

We discussed that situation from 2008 earlier in this thread. Mathman wondered whether the committee regretted its decision to skip over Hacker. I replied that if they had sent Hacker over a former world champion and lost the three spots they would have never heard the end of it and everyone would have assumed that Kimmie would have skated well enough to earn the spots. And Mathman said yes, but at least the committee could have cast themselves as the honorable martyrs of fairness

Which is true. But seriously - Kimmie's sub-par performance at nationals, not her previous international record - turned out to be pretty good predictor for how she would do at worlds, unfortunately.

 

[silverlake22]

Silverlake: I think you bring up a good point: Sending a girl to worlds under those circumstances is asking for trouble. Not just Alissa. Think if Rachael skates badly at nats and the committee sends her to worlds in place of the silver medalist. Basically, they are telling her, we're sending you to worlds in place of so-and-so because we think you can place high enough to earn our three spots back, so that is what you better do.

I think Rachael or Alissa anyone would hate to be sent to worlds under those circumstances...The "committee" would look like boneheads if the girl they chose tanked at worlds - or even came up just short. And any lady would know that and it would be asking for trouble.

I have the same mindset. Send the 3rd place finisher to Worlds in place of the 2nd place finisher and the 2nd place finisher feels bitter and jipped of a Worlds berth and the 3rd place finisher knows she's just being sent to get 3 spots back and has to deal with the pressure of that and the hard feelings of the 2nd place finisher she "stole" the Worlds spot from. It's just a lose-lose situation all around. Plus it could also make the USFSA look really bad. Like say Christina was 2nd and Rachael 3rd at nationals and Rachael is sent to Worlds, does poorly there, and we don't get 3 spots back and then Christina is sent to 4CC and say she won there, well then the USFSA would look really stupid then.