Here's how I think it'll pan out. Russia won't take the full slate of entries, but have just enough to compete in the team event. I'll assume they will have 2 pairs, 1 man, 1 dance team and 2 ladies. The entries would be:
- T/M and S/K
- Kolyada
- B/S
- Medvedeva and Zagitova
They may relinquish their extra spots, so that's a slot less for all disciplines. Instead of the maximum 10 entries, they can make do with 6. That may be the way to get the skaters into the team event and allowing only the top contenders per discipline to go. This way, we can see if "Candyman" makes the podium, if Kolyada is a spoiler in the men's discipline, and both Zhenya and Alina to compete in ladies, possibly going 1-2 as a lot of us have predicted for weeks now.
With no extra slots or alternates, the extra spot per discipline will go to the other countries which did not previously qualify for the games. That may mean the following countries qualify, as they were next in line from the Nebelhorn Trophy:
- Men: Philippines (yay Michael Christian Martinez!)
- Ladies: Armenia (Galustyan)
- Dance: Lithuania (Alison Reed is back again?)
The extra spot for the pairs may be vacant as there are 21 entries this year including the additional host country slot for South Korea. Without the third pair, that rounds out the field to exactly 20, the originally intended number of competitors.
This may also be consistent with Putin's statement that athletes may go on their own power. Figure skaters are stars in Russia, so it's not inconceivable that corporate sponsors would foot the bill for athletes to compete. It'll be extra stress from an administrative / logistical (not just psychological and emotional) perspective. That's my two cents in how this could shake out. And even with just the competitors I mentioned above for Russia / OAR, that team can still kick major butt and win the team event.
Thoughts?