Irina and Sasha may not have beaten Shizuka even with clean performance!

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I think after the first jump, a competitive skater knows what to do for the rest of the routine. In Shiz's case, the first jump was perfect and she had to make the decision of 3x3 or not to 3x3. She made the right choice.

Since that first perfect jump, she had to be quited elated with giving a little extra for the PCS scores especilly that Y spiral changing edge and letting go of the hand hold.

Joe

 

[mylastduchess]

As recently as the Cup of Russia (Nov. 27) Irina did a 3S/3Lo/2T. Last year at Worlds she did 3Lz/3Lo. I don't see how Shizuka could have counted on Irina not pulling a 3/3 out of her hat regardless of what Sasha did.

Indeed, I bet Irina had a 3/3 planned (alas, the best-laid plans of mice and men... )

In fact, the only way I can understand the strategy of team Shiz is if they were "going for the silver." Irina, not Sasha, was the pre-event favorite. All the buzz leading up to Torino was that Irina had the gold sewn up in advance (either by merit or because the judges loved her).

That being the case, I don't see how leaving out the triple/triple, just because Sasha fell, could have brought any possible benefit to Arakawa's chances to beat Slutskaya for the gold.

In the event, of course, Irina gave the worst performance of her career and made Arakawa's coach's strategy of holding back look brilliant.

MM

Even if Irina was the favourite that didn't mean she was going to win... element per element Shizuka beats Irina in her line, posture etc. If Irina and Shizuka both did the same element I can't see how Irina would edge out Shizuka! Not to mention only Shizuka was practicing 3/3 left and right during the practices at the onlympics, I don't expect Irina just pulling 3lutz/3loop out of nowhere just because she needed it.

 

[slutskayafan21]

#1 - No...that would then total 162 for Buttle and 164 for Lambiel.

Actually you are wrong on this, I could do a detailed points protocal to show you how you are wrong if you would like. Again though this was under the assumption they were both given the same very generous 0.2 per component score increase per fall that Sasha hypotheticaly would need to even get close to Shizuka, I am not saying that would be the case, I am saying if it were the case.

#3 - Evan Lysacek's PCS were way too low. He deserved the bronze.

Well you are entitedl your opinion. I thought he was way overscored and he certainly did not deserve a medal. A 152 without a quad is much too high for him.

 

[Mathman]

for the edit, S-fan

 

[slutskayafan21]

for the edit, S-fan

Oh so you saw my first version.

 

[kyla2]

Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda

This whole thread is about woulda, coulda, shoulda. Let's look at it this way, if all three skated the same exact program cleanly, who would have won? I believe Sasha would have won in that circumstance. But we all know that never happens, and they don't skate the exact same programs. So it's a point hardly worth debating. I believe if Sasha skated her planned program, and Irina and Shizuka did likewise, Sasha would have won. But it didn't happen in any of the three cases. So again, a moot point. Shizuka won and she deserved to win.

 

[slutskayafan21]

This whole thread is about woulda, coulda, shoulda. Let's look at it this way, if all three skated the same exact program cleanly, who would have won? I believe Sasha would have won in that circumstance. But we all know that never happens, and they don't skate the exact same programs. So it's a point hardly worth debating. I believe if Sasha skated her planned program, and Irina and Shizuka did likewise, Sasha would have won. But it didn't happen in any of the three cases. So again, a moot point. Shizuka won and she deserved to win.

Actually the reason is worth very much debating, and pointing out the flaw in that reasoning if you are able to do so, which I was by the numbers, is because so many people are willing to try to diminsish Shizuka's win with statements like "oh she only won because Sasha made mistakes", "Sasha pretty much handed her the gold by default", etc......Well if people are willing to make those claims I was just showing that in fact that is far from a certainty, and in fact a closer breakdown of the numbers can show that Sasha is fact was unlikely to win event with a clean skate if Shizuka also had one.

 

[SeaniBu]

totally agree

Not only do I totally agree, I said a similar comment at the end March, "Besides that, I don't think her Program could have earned her the gold via the points if it was perf. It was Sh-chan's night, there is nothing her "components" could have done to change it." - Mine came more from the fact the commentators clued me in to the pro comp.s. So it wasn't necessarily my knowledge but whom ever said that during Shizuka's warm up that let me know.

That was only in reference to Irina's, but I feel the same about all the lady's programs. Shizuka had the "numbers" in her program to win. She didn't even feel like she needed the triple in the second-half of her routine.

I just wonder how that happened. How could Shi-chan have such a clear advantage in points? Were the others expecting a lack-luster performance?

 

[kyla2]

The Whole Point Is

The whole point is, no one knows what Sasha or Irina could have done if they had been on. A clean program by Sasha with all her planned elements would have beaten Shizuka, if Shizuka had skated the program she did at the Olympics. Sasha's PCS would have been overwhelming. But it didn't happen and Shizuka didn't do what she had planned either. So discussing how it all could have shaken out is an exercise in futility. Shizuka won fair and square at the Olympics, but her PCS isn't even close to Sasha's when Sasha is on. But again, a moot point because Sasha wasn't on at the Olympics. The numbers wouldn't have looked the same if another scenario had occurred and you can't plug them into a given scenario because we have no idea how the judges would ultimately call them.

 

[slutskayafan21]

The whole point is, no one knows what Sasha or Irina could have done if they had been on. A clean program by Sasha with all her planned elements would have beaten Shizuka, if Shizuka had skated the program she did at the Olympics. Sasha's PCS would have been overwhelming. But it didn't happen and Shizuka didn't do what she had planned either. So discussing how it all could have shaken out is an exercise in futility. Shizuka won fair and square at the Olympics, but her PCS isn't even close to Sasha's when Sasha is on. But again, a moot point because Sasha wasn't on at the Olympics. The numbers wouldn't have looked the same if another scenario had occurred and you can't plug them into a given scenario because we have no idea how the judges would ultimately call them.

Actually I gave Sasha an added 0.2 per fall, which is a very generous estimate and she still would not have gained enough points to win if Shizuka had not doubled her triple loop. To argue Sasha would have won you are saying she would have gained even more than 0.4 per component without the two falls, which is totally unreasonable.

 

[R.D.]

and what if MK was there? How would it have worked out?

Supposing Mao was there. Would she have won?

In other words, this is all pointless. What's happened has happened.

But, of course, the what-ifs will continue to 2010 and beyond. Heck, I'm still seeing what-ifs from SLC and even Nagano!

 

[Bruin714]

Can someone recap the final 6's warm-up? NBC showed Sasha struggling a lot, but how were the other Ladies looking?

 

[Zuranthium]

Actually you are wrong on this, I could do a detailed points protocal to show you how you are wrong if you would like. Again though this was under the assumption they were both given the same very generous 0.2 per component score increase per fall that Sasha hypotheticaly would need to even get close to Shizuka, I am not saying that would be the case, I am saying if it were the case.

???

That would mean an extra 2 PCS per fall. How am I wrong. They both fell once.

Well you are entitedl your opinion. I thought he was way overscored and he certainly did not deserve a medal. A 152 without a quad is much too high for him.

Doing a quad has no relation to PCS. Or it shouldn't anyway. You're confused.

 

[Zuranthium]

But, of course, the what-ifs will continue to 2010 and beyond. Heck, I'm still seeing what-ifs from SLC and even Nagano!

Haha, how about this one:

What if Irina Slutskaya's SLC long program had actually been scored correctly!

IMO, she did not deserve to beat Kwan. Lord knows how she got 5.9 marks for that performance. Ridiculous.

 

[slutskayafan21]

That would mean an extra 2 PCS per fall. How am I wrong. They both fell once.

Lambiel fell twice, not once.

Doing a quad has no relation to PCS. Or it shouldn't anyway. You're confused.

No your confused to what I meant, Lyaseck IMO did not even deserve as high of PCS as he did get at the Olympics. It has nothing to do with a quad or no quad.

 

[Zuranthium]

Lambiel fell twice, not once.

Ummm, no. He fell once. Look at the protocols. His Quad landing had hands down but was not a fall.

But let's assume you do count that as a fall with regards to getting higher PCS if had skated "clean". It still only boosts his total score by 11 points - +4 PCS, +4 for not falling, +3 for not having hands down on Quad. That's not higher than Plushenko's score at all. So...you're wrong.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Did Buttle fall?

 

[soogar]

There is no question to me that Shizuka is a better skater than either of them.

Shizuka is by far the superior skater of the three, but Sasha skates with more spark and feeling. I too think that if Sasha only had minor errors (like the ones she had at Nationals; b/c I'm too realistic to think she will skate clean) and fought for her program like she did at the Olympics after those errors, Sasha would have won the whole thing. Plus Sasha had attempted more risk than Shizuka, though Shiz was clearly capable of putting more out there.

 

[antmanb]

Shizuka is by far the superior skater of the three, but Sasha skates with more spark and feeling. I too think that if Sasha only had minor errors (like the ones she had at Nationals; b/c I'm too realistic to think she will skate clean) and fought for her program like she did at the Olympics after those errors, Sasha would have won the whole thing. Plus Sasha had attempted more risk than Shizuka, though Shiz was clearly capable of putting more out there.

I must say i agree with teh statement that Arakawa is the better skater out of her, Cohen and Slutskaya. Her planned jump scheduled was harder than Cohen's planned jump schedule. Her spiral sequence (especially in the LP) was not only more difficult thatn just showing flexibilty, it took a hell of a lot of strength to hold that unsupported Y spiral, and the speed, flow and edging was better than cohen's through the spiral sequence. I think its Arakawa who hasn't been given the PCS scores she deserves throughout - how sasha outscores her i don't understand (and Irina's are mostly plucked from thin air!). Maybe Cohen has a light edge in the spins...but to me those are fairly evenly matched. Arakawa as a skater gets the nod over Cohen from me.

Ant

 

[slutskayafan21]

Ummm, no. He fell once. Look at the protocols. His Quad landing had hands down but was not a fall.

But let's assume you do count that as a fall with regards to getting higher PCS if had skated "clean". It still only boosts his total score by 11 points - +4 PCS, +4 for not falling, +3 for not having hands down on Quad. That's not higher than Plushenko's score at all. So...you're wrong.

First of all I was using the same "standard" being applied to Cohen, if we were hypotheticaly giving her an extra 0.4 per component score with the fall and the semi-fall. Lambiel's quad semi-fall was the same as Cohen's triple flip. Stumbled out of, hands down, some judges giving -2, some -3, so if Cohen would that treated as a fall on PCS, so would Lambiel. So if Cohen's were to lose the same points on PCS as a fall, the same would apply to Lambiel. I never said I neccessarily thought that is what a skater would lose for those mistakes however, I was using the most generous hypothetical to show Cohen would not have won even with that very generous hypothetical boost in PCS, and I only used Lambiel and Buttle as examples to show the probable genorisity of it.

Secondly when finding the 168, I added the 4.2 for the triple axel that was doubled, the 4 for the fall, the 2.28 for the semi-fall, the 4 on PCS, the 1 on GOE he got in his first quad as a reasonable guess had the second been landed the same way, and the 0.57 he got on the triple lutz when he landed it in the short program. That would take you to a 168.

Anyway I have neither the time nor energy for this silly merry-go-round conversation about nothing that you seem to like. Thus you are my ignore list, so dont waste your time with a response to me since I wont see it nor read it.