Irina and Sasha may not have beaten Shizuka even with clean performance!

[R.D.]

I am just going to take the mindset that Shizuka would have won no matter what. She was solid, she had confidence, something the other contenders did NOT have. If Cohen layed it down, Shiz would have beaten her anyway.

 

[STL_Blues_fan]

i read an interview with Protopotovs and they felt that Shizuka may have been the winner regardless if both Sasha and Irina skated clean.

 

[mzheng]

i read an interview with Protopotovs and they felt that Shizuka may have been the winner regardless if both Sasha and Irina skated clean.

I think so too.

Judges watch practices. Shizuka shown them how strong and consistant she was through out her practice sessions. So she will get benefit of doubt. Sasha never really shown her practice sessions, she was hiding away in a seclude practice rink. And in very few number of official practices she did participant, she diddn't do much either. The warmups before the LP neither helped. Irina by coming late, not much in practices shown to Judges either. Judges are not stupid, they know no skater willing to show their weakness in competetion practices ice.

 

[#1Kerryfan]

In the New York Times, I read if Sasha had skated clean, she would have won the gold.

 

[Dee4707]

Irina, maybe. But Cohen? She would have to be clean AND dazzle.

She did dazzle.

Dee

 

[Kwanford Wife]

All I'm saying is that Diva won & had the goods to win despite what her competitiors did. Period. As for Sasha, seeing how she tends to do better after a mistake (probably so nervous that she will make a mistake that she does & then can let it go...) I wasn't surprised that she skated extremely well after... But again, it goes back to this for me: with elite skaters (meaning top 5 in the world...) 95% present clean long programs. Sasha is 95% of the time, she will make a mistake. Luckily for her, the overall skating is strong & the judges love her... She should be proud of her silver or address her issues with the long program. Until she does, silver will continue to be her color, espcially if she's planning on staying competitive until '10. IMO.

 

[slutskayafan21]

All I'm saying is that Diva won & had the goods to win despite what her competitiors did. Period. As for Sasha, seeing how she tends to do better after a mistake (probably so nervous that she will make a mistake that she does & then can let it go...) I wasn't surprised that she skated extremely well after... But again, it goes back to this for me: with elite skaters (meaning top 5 in the world...) 95% present clean long programs. Sasha is 95% of the time, she will make a mistake. Luckily for her, the overall skating is strong & the judges love her... She should be proud of her silver or address her issues with the long program. Until she does, silver will continue to be her color, espcially if she's planning on staying competitive until '10. IMO.

That is why I am saying too. Arakawa is a complete and highly talented skater, I dont see why her win needs to be diminished by Cohen and Slutskaya making mistakes. When people add up the scores of Cohen and Slutskaya they forget that Arakawa also doubled a triple loop, with that she probably still wins out, or atleast it is not clear she does not. She does not deserve the diminishment of her win by the sour Cohen fans from the U.S like Dick Button and all.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

That is why I am saying too. Arakawa is a complete and highly talented skater, I dont see why her win needs to be diminished by Cohen and Slutskaya making mistakes. When people add up the scores of Cohen and Slutskaya they forget that Arakawa also doubled a triple loop, with that she probably still wins out, or atleast it is not clear she does not. She does not deserve the diminishment of her win by the sour Cohen fans from the U.S like Dick Button and all.

Exactly. Just because an opinion is unpopular doesn't mean it isn't right... I still think Fumie became the sacrificial lamb of these Games and its sad & this system is terrible.... IMO, of course.

 

[tarotx]

I think Shizuka would have won even with a clean Sasha. I don't know about Irina. She was still really close even with the little she put out there. I know that sounds like a diss but imo Irina's type of choreography needs her to be confident and determined but she was scared throughout. Imo Sasha actually skated one of the best lp performances of her life and also imo had some of the choreography in cop history. She more of less got the pcs's she would have clean. Perhaps a point more but it wouldn't have been enough. Irina would have scored like she did at COR and won.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Actually if Shizuka had not doubled her triple loop, Sasha even with a clean performance definitely would not have beaten Shizuka, and the points protocals prove this easily. Thus a clean Shizuka would have beaten a clean Sasha for the gold even without Shizuka doing a 3/3.

Lets analyze it closer:

Sasha scored 116.63 in the long program. Add what she lost on the two mistakes in error deduction and content lost first.

If she actually did the triple lutz-double toe-double loop she had planned that is.

Triple lutz fall= -3 on GOE + -1 for fall = -4
Triple flip near fall= -2.86 on GOE
add double toe and double loop= -2.8
Total points added on jump content and mistakes removed= 8.66

In the short program her GOE on her triple lutz and triple flip were -0.14 and +0.29, that is quite typical for Sasha who does not typicaly gain many points on GOE from her jumps.

So lets factor that in:

triple lutz= -0.14
triple flip= +0.29
Total points added on GOE of two missed jumps= +0.15

She is now up to 8.66 + 0.15 = 8.81. Before adding PCS likely added lets see where she is so far.

116.63 + 8.81 = 125.44
66.73 + 125.44 = 192.17



Now lets tally Shizuka's score had she done the triple loop.

Shizuka's free program score was 125.32

A triple loop late in the program is worth 5.5. A double loop late in the program is 1.7. Shizuka, unlike Sasha tends to get +GOE on her jumps. I would say conservatively give her +0.50 on GOE.

5.5-1.7=3.8+0.5=4.3

So Shizuka has a 125.32 + 4.3 = 129.62
129.62 + 66.02 = 195.64

That is while adding no PCS for the doubled triple, which she may or may not have gotten since doubled jumps dont affect the program flow that much.

So Sasha is add 192.17

She would need another 3.47 in PCS to catch Shizuka. If one was super generous and assumed her PCS went up a full .4 on average per component, which is assuming .2 per fall, that would still only be 3.2 total in PCS increase.

So her total even in this very generous assumption would be:

192.17 + 3.2 = 195.37

Shizuka's total of course is still ahead- 195.64

Yes indeed Shizuka without the doubled triple loop would have won over Sasha even with a clean skate, and even without Shizuka doing a triple-triple which she is quite capable of. If Sasha would have won without her two falls it would have only been because of Shizuka doubling her triple loop which she probably would not have done if Sasha had skated cleanly right before her anyway, and in fact she might have added a triple-triple to boot.

 

[R.D.]

Good points. However, I wonder how that PCS would have factored in. And remember the X-Factor. You can never know how someone would have skated if one of her competitors skated differently and/or wasn't there.

But this is all woulda coulda shoulda stuff. Bottom line: shiz won, over and out.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Good points. However, I wonder how that PCS would have factored in.

That is why I gave an extremely generous added 0.2 per component on the PCS which would add up to an extra 0.32 and even THAT would not have been enough.

What is intersting is if you look at Irina's protocals not only would a clean performance by her have lost to both a clean Shizuka and clean Sasha, but even with a clean performance she would have "barely" won over Shizuka even with her doubled triple loop. It would have probably come down to tenths, imagine if Irina with a clean skate, had even lost to Shizuka with a doubled triple loop, LOL! Also would add that with only her doubled triple flip, had she not fallen on the triple loop, and Shizuka's doubled triple loop, she would not have come even close to beating Shizuka, she would have been 3.5 points short atleast with both making a similar mistake. The overall quality of Irina's performance was very subpar for her though, aside from the mistakes though.
The judges reflected that in their scores of her performance aside from the mistakes. I could go into detailed protocal on Irina's performance to show this as well.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I would also like to add Red Dog, that is you are even to assume Sasha would gain 0.2 per component on average per fall, then by that standard both Buttle and Lambiel would have won the long program at the Olympics over Plushenko(although not the long program)without any mistakes in their programs. If we give Lambiel 4.00 points added on PCS for his two falls, and Buttle 3.00 added on PCS for his fall and touchdown, in addition to the added TES both would come in around 168 which would have won the Olympic long program.

 

[Kasey]

i love all the posts about "If Sasha had skated CLEAN, she would have won..." Um, how many competitions, how many YEARS, have people been waiting for that, especially in a major competition?? Sasha has well-established herself as someone who will find a way to shoot herself in the foot, especially in the major events. I'm not a Sasha fan at all, but I think even her fans would concede that, unless they're delusional.

It seemed so simple, and obvious. The best skater at that competition won. The most consistant. The one who handled her nerves. The one who had the jumps, the beauty, grace, artistry and DID IT when it counted. What else "could have, would have" happened is totally irrelevant because it DIDN'T. But alas, the off-season.....let the "wuzrobbing" continue....

 

[R.D.]

i love all the posts about "If Sasha had skated CLEAN, she would have won..." Um, how many competitions, how many YEARS, have people been waiting for that, especially in a major competition?? Sasha has well-established herself as someone who will find a way to shoot herself in the foot, especially in the major events. I'm not a Sasha fan at all, but I think even her fans would concede that, unless they're delusional.

It seemed so simple, and obvious. The best skater at that competition won. The most consistant. The one who handled her nerves. The one who had the jumps, the beauty, grace, artistry and DID IT when it counted. What else "could have, would have" happened is totally irrelevant because it DIDN'T. But alas, the off-season.....let the "wuzrobbing" continue....

ITA. And moreso, now I'm convinced that "clean Sasha" is an oxymoron.

 

[flutterby1145]

!

Honestly, I think Shizuka would have won anyways, regardless of if Sasha and Irina had skated clean. I was one of the people hoped Irina would win Torino, but she didn't have a clean LP. And with as much as I wanted Irina to win, her performace simply was not worthy of winning the Olympics.

As far as Sasha goes, I knew she wasn't going to win the gold medal simply based on competition record. Sasha almost always makes some type of mistake or mistakes in the LP. Nothing convinced me that she would pull off a clean LP in Torino. Typical Sasha.

Shizuka had the best performance that night and she deserved to win. I wasn't a big Shizuka fan before, but her Olympic performances turned me into a fan. She skated beautifully, even though she doubled a planned triple, she was the only one (at least of the medal contenders) that managed to stay on her feet and keep her hands above the ice. It was Shizuka's moment, it was her time to shine--and she certainly did!

 

[Zuranthium]

I am just going to take the mindset that Shizuka would have won no matter what. She was solid, she had confidence, something the other contenders did NOT have. If Cohen layed it down, Shiz would have beaten her anyway.

I agree. Sasha and Irina did NOT have Triple/Triples. If Sasha had skated clean I think Arakawa would have focused on doing a 3 Sal/3 Toe and won anyway. She rules.

 

[Zuranthium]

I would also like to add Red Dog, that is you are even to assume Sasha would gain 0.2 per component on average per fall, then by that standard both Buttle and Lambiel would have won the long program at the Olympics over Plushenko(although not the long program)without any mistakes in their programs. If we give Lambiel 4.00 points added on PCS for his two falls, and Buttle 3.00 added on PCS for his fall and touchdown, in addition to the added TES both would come in around 168 which would have won the Olympic long program.

Lots of comments, some sorta off topic:

#1 - No...that would then total 162 for Buttle and 164 for Lambiel.

#2 - I think it is ridiculous that you can completely wipe out on a Quad and still get 5 points overall for it (I heard Buttle actually had a strategy where he didn't even care about the landing on the quad and simply went for the rotations since the points it got would be great either way). There is something wrong with trying to fall and getting 5 points for it; which is more than a CLEAN triple of the same type. Quads should have a mandatory -3 deduction for falls instead of just -1. And it would probably be wise to do a -1.5 mandatory for Triple Axles as well because, again, falling on a Triple Axle shouldn't be considered more accomplished than doing a clean Double Axle.

#3 - Evan Lysacek's PCS were way too low. He deserved the bronze.

 

[Mathman]

I agree. Sasha and Irina did NOT have Triple/Triples.

As recently as the Cup of Russia (Nov. 27) Irina did a 3S/3Lo/2T. Last year at Worlds she did 3Lz/3Lo. I don't see how Shizuka could have counted on Irina not pulling a 3/3 out of her hat regardless of what Sasha did.

Indeed, I bet Irina had a 3/3 planned (alas, the best-laid plans of mice and men... )

In fact, the only way I can understand the strategy of team Shiz is if they were "going for the silver." Irina, not Sasha, was the pre-event favorite. All the buzz leading up to Torino was that Irina had the gold sewn up in advance (either by merit or because the judges loved her).

That being the case, I don't see how leaving out the triple/triple, just because Sasha fell, could have brought any possible benefit to Arakawa's chances to beat Slutskaya for the gold.

In the event, of course, Irina gave the worst performance of her career and made Arakawa's coach's strategy of holding back look brilliant.

MM

 

[Mathman]

#2 - I think it is ridiculous that you can completely wipe out on a Quad and still get 5 points overall for it (I heard Buttle actually had a strategy where he didn't even care about the landing on the quad and simply went for the rotations since the points it got would be great either way). There is something wrong with trying to fall and getting 5 points for it; which is more than a CLEAN triple of the same type...

That's an interesting point that probably deserves a thread of its own. There is, however, something to be said on the other side (besides the obvious idea that the ISU does not want to discourage skaters from trying the hardest tricks).

Whether we agee or not, IMHO the ISU is trying to maintain some consistency of outlook in interpreting the CoP. That is, they try to look at the entire element and reward what is acomplished rather than to punish what is left undone.

For the quad, if you have a nice entry edge, a solid take-off, and good form in the air, and if you complete the required four revolutions without cheating the landing -- and then you fall -- well, four out of five's not bad. You get some points for all the things you did well, and you don't get the extra points that you would have got if you had had a clean landing, too.

Same with the imfamous flutz. Though many disagree (don't get Joe started, LOL), the argument of the ISU is that the pure BO take-off edge is only one of the factors that makes a Lutz a Lutz. If you set up properly, launch yourself in that wierd Lutzy way of twisting your upper body in the "wrong" direction (opposite the circle), then have good form in the air and nice flow-out on the landing -- well, according to the ISU that ought to be worth something, and if the judges don't like the take-off edge they can subtract -2 or -3 on the GOE, as the rules specify. Thus you might end up with 3 or 4 points for a "flutz" instead of 6 points for a textbook Lutz.

This penalty is not just a wrist-slap. If they called if a flip it would be worth 5.5.

But they don't double-whammy you with a Zayak deduction on top of everything else.

A third example is the phantom combo. Let's say you do a solo triple loop at the beginning of your program, then attempt a triple loop / double toe combo later. But your landing of the loop is so bad that you can't get off the second jump.

They still score it as a "combo" (what combo?! LOL). So you get 5 points for the triple loop, with -1 GOE for the landing, and end up with 4 points as a reflection of what you actually accomplished, instead of 6.3 for the full value of the combo had it been successful.

As I say, not everyone agrees that this is the right way to go. But at least the ISU seems to be consistent in its intent to reward what the skaters do, rather than punish them for what they don't do (such as stand up on the landing of a quad, LOL).

MM