It's clear to me Cohen will be a no-show...but if for some reason one of the contenders was forced out of Nats due to injury, well...that would just plain suck. I do hope all five of them (plus Hughes and a couple of the lower-ranked skaters I've been eyeing) can make it to Nats, and make it the thrill that it could potentially be.
Is it really farfetched to say Flatt has a chance to medal in Vancouver?
- Thread starter HCOSurfer
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Hmmmm. Interesting possibility. You're getting my hopes up. I really enjoy Mirai's skating. I do think Carmen is totally wrong for her though.
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I agree, but she and Frank have a plan I think. Internationally this season I think Mirai has been underscored (mostly at SC), I think she has it all. Plus if she can grow that much so fast and still stay as good as she is I think that says something. Evan Lysacek said that he thinks she has tremendous potential and likes her intensity. I think it's good that she's training alongside Evan and Carolina
It's going to take more than a few months with Carroll's coaching to completely turn Mirai's skating around. I don't think Mirai will be truly competitive until maybe next season. She's still young and has plenty of time to become a major contender in Sochi.
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I think I agree with you. But just how competitive does Mirai have to be to medal at Nationals?
With two clean skates she would win it. With a few urs she may medal.
But I think by next season she will start making some waves. Every aspect of her skating is superior and if her jumps get settled she will be able to win international medals.
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- Nov 12, 2009
ITA, especially because she's probably done growing now. 10 inches in 2 1/2 years is a lot....As for nationals, it depends on how the others skate. If Ashley has an off night and Alissa melts under the pressure, it looks like 1 and 2 will be Rachael and Mirai, in either order. Of course the USFSA could decide to pass Mirai over for Ashley or Alissa, but I think if Alissa can't handle nationals then it bodes poorly for the Olympics and they might be better off sending Mirai.
I kinda feel like Ashley and Alissa are going to do well at nats though, so we'll see
I think Flatt could medal at Vancouver, but she would have to turn it on big time and others would have to underachieve. I highly doubt Sasha will be at US nationals, even though I would love to see her compete again. I think the US Team will be Ashley Wagner, and one of Rachael or Mirai, with the edge at the moment going to Rachael. Even if Ashley comes 3rd or 4th at Nats, I think the USFSA would be stupid to not take GP results into account. I actually think that Wagner, at the moment, has a better chance to medal than Flatt, but both chances are pretty slim. Who knows though?! The ice is slippery and Olympic ice, even more so.
I hope, but people said the same thing about Meissner/Hughes duo...Maybe the next crop might show up and blow her out of the water...seriously, for these five...the big O's may not be this close to them again. Depressing to think about, but it could be true. Of course, if any of them have staying power, they may get another chance.
This is especially true for a skater like Alyssa. She's spent years in the middle of the US pack and this past year suddenly emerged among the top contenders. This is sounding like a broken record but this is it for her.
Rachel is a steady competitor and I think at least two of the other contenders must open a can of serious whoop-*** to knock her off the team. Nothing is a done deal of course but I do like her chances.
Yeah, I do see your point, but I agree more with Silverlake. I don't see Mirai having the same kind of trouble as Kimmie. Her jumps haven't really left her in that same astonishing way as they left Kimmie. It feels more like she needs to keep practicing, practicing, practicing so she'll get rid of her UR issues. And she needs to get her style together but I think that will come. First the technical issues. I think with Mirai is more about how much she can stay motivated and keep at it for the next four years. But that's her business.
With the other four U.S. ladies, I suspect they're isn't as much room for improvement as there is with Mirai. Especially Alissa.
Caroline is young but from what everyone says it seems like she needs almost to tear down her technique and start over again... In one of her blogs, Jennifer Kirk said it isn't too difficult to improve your speed. Can that possibly be true? Seems like if it were Caroline would have done that by now.
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- Nov 12, 2009
Yeah exactly, something happened to Kimmie very suddenly, and she went from being really good to falling all the time. And I don't think it was even a growth spurt because she was the same height at the Olympics as she is now. She did develop into a different kind of build though, but I don't know if even that was the issue. I know people said her jump technique was good, but her jumps always looked really tight to me, like she didn't use her speed and strength to her advantage. I sometimes wonder if she just didn't like skating anymore.
The fact that Mirai went from having 5 triples UR in China to no triples UR at SC in a few weeks is promising and shows that she really has this problem under control if she makes the effort to make sure she rotates fully. I'm sure this will only continue to get better as well. As for her style and presentation, I think Mirai is just at that awkward stage where she can't really do the cutesy little kid style she did when she was 13 and 14, but isn't comfortable trying to pull of the mature and sexy style that skaters like Joannie, Yuna, Alissa, etc have. To me, it looks like she's a little bit uncomfortable with her body right now, judging by her slouching. She doesn't have a little kids body anymore but maybe isn't quite ready to embrace that and so it looks like she's trying to hide the fact that she is grown up and beautiful and not some tiny cutesy junior skater. This is pretty normal and happens to most people though and I think it will all pass soon.
As for Caroline, you think that speed would come with her growing but it hasn't. It looks like she was trying to be faster in her SP this season. It might just be really hard to let go of your old ways though
I would not be surprised if she lost some motivation along the way (I mean, who doesn't struggle with that at some point), especially given all that she's accomplished. From reading interviews, her tweets, etc. it seems more like "too much too soon" - the expectations went up after her World championship win, she put additional pressure on herself to skate like that all the time, plus her body changed (I think she filled out, got a bit more muscular??) and it was kind of the end for her.
But according to her recent tweets she's slowly getting back to skating again, and seems to really enjoy it, so I *think* we have not seen the last of her just yet. Just unfortunate it had to happen in an Oly year, but truthfully I think she was a longshot for the team at best. She's been to Olys once already, anyway, so at least others will get a chance...hopefully Cohen will stay out of it.
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- Nov 12, 2009
Aww that's good, I like Kimmie. She was such a jock and I love it. I hope Sasha will stay out of it too, she had her turn already, please don't steal somebody else's. Plus she has an Olympic Silver, so obviously her goal is Olympic Gold, and with Yuna around that's never going to happen
I don't see that Ashley has a better chance to medal. Her continuing problem with URs and "e" level flutzing will keep her scores down, and she doesn't exactly get competitive PCS scores---her FS scores were next-to-last at the GPF, and she skated pretty well there. Her track record at big events (16th place at Worlds 08) doesn't stir the admiration of judges, either.
Ashley's best score this season---163.97, at CoR---would have placed her 9th at Worlds 2009. So let's get real here.
I was basing it more on her GP results and the fact that she even made the GPF. Her free-skate scores were not actually next-to-last at the GPF. She was 4th in the free and 4th overall. In an underwhelming GP season, she's been holding her own.
Reread my post. I said her PCS scores for the GPF FS were the next-to-lowest (Leonova, who had a horrific skate, was last, but her PCS scores were only 0.68 lower than Ashley's, though Ashley's TES was 12.18 higher than Leonova's) .
Scores for the GPF (TES, PCS):
61.70 61.52 KIM
58.62 61.12 ANDO
63.58 52.88 SUZUKI
55.97 51.84 WAGNER
39.05 56.72 ROCHETTE
43.79 51.16 LEONOVA
If you notice, Suzuki, who had the highest TES, didn't get high PCS scores, either, although Rochette, who had the lowest TES, got comparatively high PCS scores.
That's because PCS scores reflect reputation to some extent (even though technically they are not supposed to) and Suzuki and Wagner don't have high-level reputations at this point, while Rochette does, as the World silver medalist.
Scores for the GPF (TES, PCS):
61.70 61.52 KIM
58.62 61.12 ANDO
63.58 52.88 SUZUKI
55.97 51.84 WAGNER
39.05 56.72 ROCHETTE
43.79 51.16 LEONOVA
If you notice, Suzuki, who had the highest TES, didn't get high PCS scores, either, although Rochette, who had the lowest TES, got comparatively high PCS scores.
That's because PCS scores reflect reputation to some extent (even though technically they are not supposed to) and Suzuki and Wagner don't have high-level reputations at this point, while Rochette does, as the World silver medalist.
I don't know where you are getting your scores but on the official website, Wagner's PCS were last.
http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpf0910/SEG012.HTM
At first I thought you might be talking about PCS, but because the scoresheet didn't match up to your claim, I went with overall results. She's still managed pretty good results even with low PCS. Wagner isn't even in Rochette's league SS-wise.
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ITA. But this may mean that Ashley's and Akiko's PCS will be higher from now on now that they have proven their worth. Rachael used to have very low PCS and now they have gotten higher without her changing her skating much. If Ashley does well at nationals and goes to the Olympics, I'm sure her PCS will probably be higher there, especially if she comes in as the national champ.
Another thing is that judges usually save the high PCS scores for the last skaters. Because Ashley did her LP first at the GPF, they wanted to make sure her PCS weren't too high so that they wouldn't have to give rediculously high PCS to the skaters to come after if they performed better. If Joannie had skated 1st, she probably would have come in last do to this trend in PCS.
If you look at SC, Mirai delivered a SP comparable to her one at CoC, but she got a 56 instead of a 62. She skated in the first group though so this makes sense
Rachael's PCS scores have gotten higher because she is the 2007-2008 JGPF silver medalist, 2008 World Junior Champion, finished 5th at 2009 Worlds, and is a pretty consistent performer who has scored over 110 in the FS on many occasions. She's also won two silver GP medals (one last year and one this year) and was seeded in this year's GP. She was first alternate to the GPF.
Wagner has two JW bronze medals and finished 16th in her only appearance at Worlds. She won her first GP medals this season (her 3rd in the GP) and made the final. Her PCS scores are on the low side because she still hasn't impressed the judges as a major contender.
Wagner has two JW bronze medals and finished 16th in her only appearance at Worlds. She won her first GP medals this season (her 3rd in the GP) and made the final. Her PCS scores are on the low side because she still hasn't impressed the judges as a major contender.
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