This was so hard because there are so many skaters that I like, and didn’t want to put out of scoring positions!
But first, I have to comment on the most shocking thing about the predictions so far:
Why has hardly anybody predicted that The Queen will win???!!!
Of the 19 predictions posted so far, only 4 have put Mao Asada on top!
(After I post mine, that will be 5/20, so a quarter of the predictions).
Like, I know she finished a LOT further down than expected at the GP Final (I can’t bear to mention where she finished relative to everybody else!), but that was just one poor event. She has won or been on the podium in every other competition she has done this season!
So, well done to
sunnystars,
cathlen,
tulosai and
icekiwi for keeping the faith!
Well, the Top 2 were a lock in for me. But after that, it was the Hunger Games. There were literally 15 or 16 skaters that I thought were capable of getting into the remaining scoring positions!
When I was bringing up the Bios, every time I would come to a name and think “Oh, I’ll have to put her in my Top 6”! And when I got them all ordered, I was shocked at how far down the list some of them ended up. It just shows the depth of talent there is!
So, after looking at the list for a few minutes, I promptly went onto Facebook, as I couldn’t face pushing anybody down!
In the end, I decided to only a few changes. The first was really painful – pushing Kanako Murakami down the list.
I really like Kanako, and she has the third highest ISU PB. But I have to be realistic – so far this season, the Juniors have been scoring a lot better than her. Her SB is 171.59 from Skate Canada. And 7 of the 10 skaters who have PB’s higher than this scored them this season, or at the end of last season. (The other 3 are Mao Asada, Haruka Imai and Kanako herself, who all scored their PB’s in the second half of the 2013–14 season).
Placing Kanako by SB brought her down to 10th on the list, between Yuka Nagai and Kaori Sakamoto. But, Sakamoto’s PB from the Riga Cup was not much less than this. So, I pushed Kaori up into the Top 10, taking Kana down to 11th. Incidentally, Riona Kato’s PB was also not far behind Sakamoto, but her scores have been a LOT lower than that this season. So, she stayed where she was.
The other main change was to promote Wakaba Higuchi a place in front of Yuna Shiraiwa. I really like Wakababy, and their ISU PB’s are pretty close. But, more significantly, Wakababy won Junior Nationals last month by 5 points over Yuna.
While looking at the results of Junior Nationals, I noticed that Yahuna Yukoi and Rin Nitaya were 3rd and 4th, and that their scores would bring them well into the Top 10, just ahead of Haruka Imai. Consequently, Murakami finished up being 13th on my list.
With all the retirements in recent years, there were not quite as many Men that I wanted to put in my Top 6 as there were Ladies. But, there were still more skaters than places!
I knew exactly who I wanted to put as the Top 9 skaters. It was just a matter of the order.
I did have a problem though. There was some fella Hanyu that I have never heard tell of before, but the PB’s in his ISU Bio are more like telephone numbers than figure skating scores! Whoever it was that types the updates to the Bios must have made a mistake. Just in case he is actually good, I decided to put him as my 9th position. But then, I thought, “nah, I’ll put him as my alternate”. Then I had another thought “Wait, if I haven’t heard tell of him, hardly anybody else will either. So, they won’t take the risk of picking him. So, if I pick him and he does actually do well, I’ll clean up!” Consequently, I put him in first place…
For the rest of my Top 6, I knew who I was going to have. But, I dithered a bit about the order. Kozuka, Murakami and Mura all have very similar PB’s. Kozuka’s PB’s are the highest, but date way back to 2011 and 2012. With Murakami and Mura, their overall and FS PB’s date to last season, but their SP PB’s are from this season.
I toyed with the idea of moving Murakami and Mura up. But then I looked at the results from last year’s Senior Nationals. And I decided, no, I would keep Kozuka in 3rd position. As for the other two, I kept Murakami ahead. For a start, his SB (from Skate Canada) is a full 10 points higher than Mura’s (from the NHK Trophy). Plus, after doing so badly in last year’s Nationals, and after finishing last in the GP Final a few weeks ago, Murakami will be out to prove a point.
The other dithering I was doing was over 6th and 7th. Both skaters set their PB’s this season. Tanaka’s PB (from the NHK) is 2 points ahead of Yamamoto’s PB (from the Copernicus Stars). But, I decided to put Yamamoto ahead. No particular reason apart from the fact that every time I think of Yamamoto, I think of his
“Thunderbirds” gala routine from a few years ago, and it always makes me smile.
I was happy enough with the order I had Hino and Kawahara in. There is a full 7 points between their ISU PB’s, and an even bigger difference (37 points!) in what Ryuju scored at Senior Nationals and what Sei scored at Junior Nationals last year. As for the rest, I wasn’t familiar enough with them, so I left them as they were.
Can I just say, it is great to see that for the first time ever, the Pairs competition has enough entries to count towards the Predictions Game!!!
However, it is a bit surreal that one of the entries is made up of 2 foreigners! A girl from Hong Kong, and a guy from Canada. Although, judging by her name (as well as her sister’s name), I suspect Marin Ono may have more than a little bit of Japanese heritage!
Unfortunately, they are all new couples, so we don’t really have much to go on for any of them.
If we order the five skaters I could find ISU Bios for by the PB’s for their previous partnerships, it has the 3 guys on top, followed by the 2 girls.
Kihara’s former partnership is top of the list, but a lot of the reason for that is undoubtedly down to Narumi Takahashi. She was the star of the partnership.
Next along was Boudreau Audet’s former partnership. Now, I really liked him and Ami Koga, so I am a rather upset that they have split up.
Third on the list was Wesley Killing. Apologies to our Canadian members, but I know nothing about him, or his past partnerships.
There was roughly 7 points between each of the guys. But, the worrying thing was the girls. Their PB’s with their previous partners were a LOT lower, barely into 3 figures. Oh, and they were both set at Junior Worlds in 2014. So, we have a direct comparison.
Since Ono was the bottom of the 2 girls, and Killing was the bottom of the 3 guys, I put them at the bottom.
Although Kihara was the top guy, his partner is new to Pairs. She was 13th in Junior Ladies two years ago. This may not sound too impressive, but then you see that Yuna Aoki was 2 places below her, and Yuka Nagai a further 2 places back. I was tempted to put them on the top, but her inexperience in Pairs led me to put them in the middle.
So, Boudreau Audet and Suto were my pick for the win. I may know hardly anything about her, but I rate her partner. And that was enough to sway it for me.
In Dance, there are 2 partnerships that have ISU Bios, and 2 where only the guy does. Of the 2 that do have ISU Bios, I rate them both! But, the partnership that is new for this season is already doing better than the more established partnership. There again, that new partnership does include the guy whose previous partnership dominated the Japanese Ice Dance Championship for many years!
I was tempted to go for Emi and Marien, but with the way Kana and Chris have hit the road running, I have to go for them.
For the other two, I went on past results for the guys. Two years ago, Suzuki finished third in Senior nationals and won Junior nationals when he was partnering Shizuru Agita. In the same Senior Nationals, Mizutani was fourth with Chinatsu Nakazawa, but nearly 16 points behind.
For the girls, Suzuki’s new partner, Ibuki Mori was 21st in Senior Ladies last year. I can’t find anything out about Muzutani’s new partner, Haruno Yajima.
So, in theory, Suzuki should be able to beat Mizutani again with their new partners.
Right, that's enough waffling!
This took rather a lot longer than I was expecting, so I’m not going to have as long to deliberate over Russia as I had hoped!
Caroliza_fan
JAPANESE CHAMPIONSHIPS
Ladies
1. Mao ASADA, JPN
2. Satoko MIYAHARA, JPN
3. Rika HONGO, JPN
4. Wakaba HIGUCHI, JPN
5. Yuna SHIRAIWA, JPN
6. Marin HONDA, JPN
Just for fun
7. Yura MATSUDA, JPN
8. Yuhana YOKOI, JPN
9. Rin NITAYA, JPN
10. Haruka IMAI, JPN
11. Yuka NAGAI, JPN
12. Kaori SAKAMOTO, JPN
13. Kanako MURAKAMI, JPN
14. Riona KATO, JPN
15. Mariko KIHARA, JPN
Men
1. Yuzuru HANYU, JPN
2. Shoma UNO, JPN
3. Takahiko KOZUKA, JPN
4. Daisuke MURAKAMI, JPN
5. Takahito MURA, JPN
6. Sota YAMAMOTO, JPN
Just for fun
7. Keiji TANAKA, JPN
8. Ryuju HINO, JPN
9. Sei KAWAHARA, JPN
10. Koshiro SHIMADA, JPN
11. Daichi MIYATA, JPN
12. Hiroaki SATO, JPN
13. Mitsuki SUMOTO, JPN
14. Shu NAKAMURA, JPN
15. Kento KAJITA, JPN
Pairs
1. Sumire SUTO / Francis BOUDREAU-AUDET, JPN
2. Miu SUZAKI / Ryuichi KIHARA, JPN
3. Marin ONO / Wesley KILLING, JPN
Ice Dance
1. Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED, JPN
2. Emi HIRAI / Marien DE LA ASUNCION, JPN
3. Ibuki MORI / Kentaro SUZUKI, JPN
4. Haruno YAJIMA / Kokoro MIZUTANI, JPN
