Kwan and Slutskaya each without Olympic Gold, does it seem picture is wrong?

[Tonichelle]

Speaking of eyes... I love the twinkle in Kurt's lol seeing his smile in his eyes during the Worlds recap today made me feel a bit better (I'm battling the flu this week ugh)

 

[Jaana]

Generally speaking I think that the timing means a lot as the skaters prepare for the Olympics. Although of course the timing in the Olympic season is really important, even more important is timing in the Olympiade, during the four seasons before the Olympics. For the skater to peak, for the coach to get the skater to be in her/his best condition. Olympics is only once in four years, so one needs to do real good work to achieve a really good timing.

If one looks at the historical results in ladies singles, I think that besides Kwan and Slutskaya there is only Seyfert who won the Worlds more than once, and did not win the Olympic gold medal. A couple early World champions did not win, because there was no Olympics in those years.

Olympics have not been won by "an unknown lady skater", all the winners have had a reputation, longer or shorter, before the Olympics. Sarah Hughes has by far never been one of my favourites, but her timing worked wonderfully. She was at her best condition at the Olympics. Great work by her coach!!!

Kwan and Lipinski were kind of equal as they were heading to 1998 Olympics, both World champions and US champions. The one who had the better nerves won. Unfortunately Kwan skated her better performance at US Nationals and not at the Olympics. Timing...

To me it seems that Kwan was self-destructive for 2002 Olympics, which she should have been able to win. Firing the coach in the Olympic season is not the most intelligent thing to do, in my opinion.

About Slutskaya, I think that also she had very good chances in 2002. Personally I suspect that her coach gave bad advice before her freeskate, maybe the coach forgot Hughes and just concentrated on what Kwan had done?

 

[slutskayafan21]

If one looks at the historical results in ladies singles, I think that besides Kwan and Slutskaya there is only Seyfert who won the Worlds more than once, and did not win the Olympic gold medal. A couple early World champions did not win, because there was no Olympics in those years.

You are almost right. Linda Fratianne(1977 and 1979 World Champion), Aja Zanova(1949 and 1950 World Champion), Megan Taylor(1938 and 1939 World Champion)are the others I believe.

Olympics have not been won by "an unknown lady skater", all the winners have had a reputation, longer or shorter, before the Olympics.

This is true.

Kwan and Lipinski were kind of equal as they were heading to 1998 Olympics, both World champions and US champions. The one who had the better nerves won. Unfortunately Kwan skated her better performance at US Nationals and not at the Olympics. Timing...

I dont agree at all that Kwan and Lipinski seemed kind of equal going into the 1998 Olympics. Despite Tara being the reigning World Champion Kwan seemed like the heavy heavy favorite the way the season had played out. Kwan and Slutskaya going into the 2002 Olympics seemed much more equal then Kwan and Lipinski going into the 1998 Olympics, despite Irina not having won a World title yet.

To me it seems that Kwan was self-destructive for 2002 Olympics, which she should have been able to win. Firing the coach in the Olympic season is not the most intelligent thing to do, in my opinion.

I am not sure what happened exactly, she made some strange choices that year. However her performances in winning the U.S title, in finishing 2nd to Slutskaya at the 2002 Worlds, both would have won the Olympic Gold over Hughes.

About Slutskaya, I think that also she had very good chances in 2002. Personally I suspect that her coach gave bad advice before her freeskate, maybe the coach forgot Hughes and just concentrated on what Kwan had done?

I dont know, if Kwan had skated great she would have been uneasy and maybe gotten tenative and tight as well. Big Irina fan as I am that is her tendency quite often when it comes to that final free skate of Worlds or Olympics, especialy the Olympics.

 

[krenseby]

Big Irina fan as I am that is her tendency quite often when it comes to that final free skate of Worlds or Olympics, especialy the Olympics.

It's a terrible tendency. You have to let loose in your LP at the Olympics if you want to win. Skating conservatively is a recipe for disaster.

Incidentally, that's what I admire about Mao Asada. She always goes all the way and does all the most difficult jumps, no matter what competition she is in. She won't ever lose by playing it safe.

Kimmie is unfortunately affected by the play-it-safe mindset. She hasn't tried the triple axel in a long time and shame on her! She knows that that's what she neesd to eventually be able to beat Asada (as well as others.) Besides, if she ever managed to land one, that would freak Asada out and make her sweat her program. Nothing works as well as intimidation.

 

[Jaana]

You are almost right. Linda Fratianne(1977 and 1979 World Champion), Aja Zanova(1949 and 1950 World Champion), Megan Taylor(1938 and 1939 World Champion)are the others I believe.

Oh, I missed Fratianne..., but if you look at the historical results at

http://www.eskatefans.com/skatabase/olympicladies.html

you can see that Vrzanova was not a World champion at 1948 Olympics and in 1952 she did not participate. Neither were there Olympics for Megan Taylor because of the war. So, it is only Seyfert, Fratianne, Kwan and Slutskaya who are multiple World champions and have not won the Olympic gold medal.

Unless I counted wrong, LOL, there has been altogether 22 Olympic champions so far from which Henie and Witt have won more than once. And 11 multiple World champions have won also the Olympic gold medal.

 

[jennylovskt]

To me it seems that Kwan was self-destructive for 2002 Olympics, which she should have been able to win. Firing the coach in the Olympic season is not the most intelligent thing to do, in my opinion.

Totally agree! I didn't think she was going to win that time by knowing that she fired her coach.

 

[Wolfgang]

The perfect example of exactly how elusive Olympic gold is, would be a Swedish alpine skier by the name of Ingemar Stenmark, without a doubt the most dominant skier of the mid-70's to mid-80's.
He only ever competed in slalom and giant slalom - never did any downhills - yet managed to win the World Cup (much more meaningful, imho, than the Olympics) 3 or 4 times in a row!!!!
That's like a NASCAR driver refusing to race in the state of Florida and still winning the cup!
IIRC, he went to 3 Olympics (Innsbruck, Lake Placid, Sarajevo), and should have won 6 gold (yes, he was THAT good...), but all he ever got was something like 1 gold and 1 bronze.
You talk about a gross misrepresentation of talent.

There is - aside from all the other factors - such a MASSIVE amount of luck involved in winning Olympic medals of any kind, or even going to the Olympics, that I for one have an extremly hard toime looking at Olympic games as anything more than a sort of 'showcase' type event.

As for FS medals being 'lifetime achievement awards', there's a very good reason why many people feel that way: it tends to be true.
However, that doesn't help you if you screw up.
Example: There is no doubt in my mind, that Michelle Kwan was 'scheduled' to win gold, but she hurt herself and didn't go.
Irina Slutskaya was prolly second in line, but she fell.
Enter # 3, Sasha Cohen, who also fell.
Ergo, Shizuka Arakawa (presumably # 4 in succession to the throne) wins......

I saw this a whole bunch of times in the days of Russian/East German Mega-Domination, when pretty much the only way to defeat whoever the 'reigning champion' was, was if this selfsame champion retired........

 

[nymkfan51]

Interesting thoughts, Wolfgang. Do you really feel Michelle was "scheduled" for gold in Torino? As a huge MK supporter, I felt she would have been a longshot for the gold. We had no idea what her programs would look like or how she would handle them the only time out in competition. After the fact I looked at the outcome and wanted to scream ... I really never believed a 5 triple program with no 3/3 would be good enough for the victory. I feel relatively certain Michelle could have done that much. Just imagine she lost the gold in Nagano with a clean 7 triple program ... go figure.

 

[Dee4707]

Interesting thoughts, Wolfgang. Do you really feel Michelle was "scheduled" for gold in Torino? .

I guess no one has ever given a good explanation of why she even went to Torino. Was it for the drama??? In various accounts after Torino, her coach said that she was having problems before and he would look at her and know when she could practice and when she couldn't..........so how does one think they can skate and/or win at the Olympics?? Was it just for show?? I never really understood this at all. Can someone give me an explanation??

Dee

 

[kittyjake5]

I guess no one has ever given a good explanation of why she even went to Torino. Was it for the drama??? In various accounts after Torino, her coach said that she was having problems before and he would look at her and know when she could practice and when she couldn't..........so how does one think they can skate and/or win at the Olympics?? Was it just for show?? I never really understood this at all. Can someone give me an explanation??

Dee

Well I don't know the answer to your questions but I certainly don't think it was about the drama or for show. It probably was very simple for her she thought she could win gold (she said so herself that she thought she had a shot) and she probably could have won if her body held up. Heck she could have won at 75% JMO.

 

[SeaniBu]

yeah. We get threads about skaters' eyes, skaters' hair, etc.

I'm inspired!

And really what else can you do? Either you can have a prediction - which many frown on, Talk about what is happening - wouldn't you rather be watching?, or what did happen. What else.

Yes I know the idea that something is so far past but harm? Issues with it are always easily answered as "don't read it" - pretty clear on this thread title anyway. So what is the harm? AAMOF it might even give a good perspective on the future to know where it has been right. ??? Isn't that a normal factor of "judgment and understanding" to discuss where something has been?

If I was to guess, the factor of "how important is the one month event, happening every 4 years, to a athletes career anyway" comes to mind as a good topic. Particularly when we have the ideas now that with the way the world is today "country rivalry" is just not all that important anymore. Kind of says something for the future of the Olys as well. This topic could go into a number of different directions if it is lead in a direction other than questioning the validity of a discussion it's self.

 

[nymkfan51]

I think kittyjake has it right. I have no doubt that Michelle would never make the attempt to go there unless she had a shot at winning. That doesn't have to mean that she felt she was the favorite ... only that if she skated her best, she would as good a chance as anyone else.
It was harder for us to have that feeling I think, because we didn't know the strength of her programs or how she felt physically. I believe that going into Torino she felt healthy enough to give it a try, but in the same way she has handled everything else, she made sure she would step aside the minute she no longer felt capable ... and she proved herself a person of her word.

 

[R.D.]

I've heard accounts that Kwan THOUGHT that she could do it, or maybe even tricked herself into thinking that she could do it when it might have been clear to others that she couldn't. Still, a test skate was done behind closed doors, and supposedly she was in good enough shape at that time to be competitive for a medal. So for that reason in particular her announcement to pull out took me by surprise. It also made the anticipation for the ladies event a little less exciting. Now I "knew" (at least at the time) that Irina, who I didn't want to win, was going to win, or at the least, get silver.

But the what-ifs are simply going to kill us- what's happened has happened. Arakawa's the new Olympic champ.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Kwan would have had to do not only a clean short and clean free skate, but she would have needed to do atleast 6 triples, maybe the full 7 which would mean including a triple-triple, to have had any chance to beat Arakwa for the gold. Arakwa's 125.32 in the free skate is a huge score for only 5 triples. I can ensure you Kwan would not have won the gold medal with only 5 triples. Any of you who believe that are strongly mistaken IMHO.

It is true Arakawa lost the short program to Cohen and Slutskaya with all 3 skating cleanly, but she was within a point still. Kwan has usually lost the short program to Cohen and Slutskaya, in recent confrontations, and decisively so when they have skated cleanly as well. So I would not look at Arakawa's 3rd place in the short program as representative of anything, not that I infering anybody is, but if anybody does. Then in the free skate it was clear in hindsight by the points that even Irina Slutskaya needed 6 triples to even have a chance of having held off Arakawa for the gold, with 5 triples landed cleanly-for example had she not fallen on her triple loop, she would have fallen far short, and this is Slutskaya who came in as the undisputed gold medal favorite. Cohen also completed 5 triples, although one was slightly flawed, and came nowhere near Arakawa's total score.

Even if Kwan had vastly improved her programs under COP, and I would like to think she did, she still would have needed atleast 6 triples in the free skate, possibly even a triple-triple of some kind to reach 7, to have had any chance of beating Arakawa for the gold with the kind of score she got for her 5-triple free skate.

 

[attyfan]

We also don't know what scores Shizuka might have gotten if Michelle had skated, simply because of the psychological effect on other skaters that (IMO) would have been caused by Michelle's withdrawal -- that may have affected the performances of other skaters. What I mean is -- MK has been so healthy for so long that her withdrawal could easily have had a subconscious effect on the other skaters (especially when combined with what happened to D/L), so they all were going super-cautiously -- making Shizuka stand out more, since she at least was clean. If Michelle had been healthy, then maybe the other skaters would have thought back to Nagano and SLC, and really let themselves go -- with an unknown effect on the results.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

One thing is for certain, Shizuka has become one heluva beautiful Pro skater. I put her in the class of Kulic who imo, became a great Pro skater.

Joe

 

[R.D.]

We also don't know what scores Shizuka might have gotten if Michelle had skated, simply because of the psychological effect on other skaters that (IMO) would have been caused by Michelle's withdrawal -- that may have affected the performances of other skaters. What I mean is -- MK has been so healthy for so long that her withdrawal could easily have had a subconscious effect on the other skaters (especially when combined with what happened to D/L), so they all were going super-cautiously -- making Shizuka stand out more, since she at least was clean. If Michelle had been healthy, then maybe the other skaters would have thought back to Nagano and SLC, and really let themselves go -- with an unknown effect on the results.

Exactly- it's not at all clear what would happen "what if"- simply because of what I like to call the "X-Factor" (which in this case is basically what you said above). It's easy to say B and C would have occurred if A did NOT occur but maybe X and Y are variables that influence whether B or C would have happened.

I'd like to ask a skater how these variables affect their mindset going into a performance. It's not that simple to just say, for example, if MK were there Arakawa wouldn't have gotten such high scores, or if one of the other skaters before her was clean, whether she would have skated the same way. That's why I have trouble with these "re-hashing" scenarios.

 

[demarinis5]

One thing is for certain, Shizuka has become one heluva beautiful Pro skater. I put her in the class of Kulic who imo, became a great Pro skater.

Joe

This is so true. She has come alive as a pro skater. I always classified Shiz's skating as excellent but reserved. Boy was I wrong. She looks like a different skater out there since she turned pro.

 

[krenseby]

This is so true. She has come alive as a pro skater. I always classified Shiz's skating as excellent but reserved. Boy was I wrong. She looks like a different skater out there since she turned pro.

The other skaters now have the same problem. They have to be focused on the jumps and the points. They might be more lively, joyous, and artistic if they got the jumps off their mind.

 

[hockeyfan228]

. So, it is only Seyfert, Fratianne, Kwan and Slutskaya who are multiple World champions and have not won the Olympic gold medal.

Seyfert only won Worlds after Fleming won the OGM and left competitive skating, though. She didn't stay in long enough to compete for gold in 1972. Fratianne, Kwan, and Slutskaya won multiple world titles before the 1980, 2002, and 2006 Olympics. Fratiane (before Lake Placid), Kwan (before SLC) and Slutskaya (before Torino) had won multiple World titles before they competed in the Olympics, but did not win gold.

Although she was considered a great favorite in Nagano, Kwan won one World title (1996) and a silver (1997) before 1998, and one World title (2003) and one bronze medal (2004) in the 2006 Olympic cycle. Kwan had three World titles (1998, 2000, 2001) and one silver (2002) going into SLC. Slutskaya hadn't won a World title going into SLC -- she had three silvers in 1998, 2000, 2001 -- and she had two World titles (2002, 2005) going into Torino.

By the time Kwan and Slutskaya competed, though, there were numerous confrontations among the favorites in the Grand Prix circuit, including Grand Prix Finals.