I guess we disagree. I like Ashley's Black Swan program, but I don't think it's wonderful. In fact, I think it's strangely constructed in that her moments of faster/more intense skating don't seem to match the crescendos in the music. It is a vast improvement over some of her other programs (especially the very repetitive Polovetsian Dances routine) but, at least IMO, it strikes me as the program of someone who is using a lot of big, gimmicky arm movements to try to create a connection to the music. To me, even though Ashley does all of that arm work, part of the performance still seems like it's inauthentic/ wanting. Sasha Cohen skated to a very similar selection of music and was far better at integrating the choreography and creating an authentic interpretation as far as I'm concerned.
That doesn't have a lot of bearing on the Alissa vs. Ashley debate. I agree with you on transitions going to Ashley, but I disagree with CH and IN going to Ashley. Alissa's program can be sparse in terms of transitions and the music can be a bit monotonous at times, however, I do think that the arm movements and her connection to the music fit together better than Ashley's do. I also think the structure of the program makes sense. In the event of 2 clean skates I think Czisny and Wagner's CH and IN would be closer than they should be since some judges tend to confuse a lot of choreographical movement for good choreography. Nonetheless, I still think that Alissa should carry the day on PCS.
I am not sure what YMMV means, so I can't really offer an opinion on that, but I believe the PE mark would go to whoever skated a cleaner program on the day. In the event of two clean skates, my guess is that Alissa's higher quality in the aforementioned areas would help her here. I am unabashedly biased, however. Hopefully both ladies skate cleanly in Nice so this won't have to be a hypothetical debate!