Ladies OGM Contenders 2018

[mrrice]

Just the 3A won't be enough, though. Landing a beautiful 3A and then under rotating three other triples will land her in the same spot she's been in.

Exactly! I still have to wonder how much time this 3A takes away from the rest of her skating. Mirai, is not like Tuk when it comes to components. When she's performing well, she has the ability to light up an arena. Her spins are fast, centered, and her positions are as good, if not better than most of the US Ladies. IMO, her focus should be making the US team. Karen has skated so well over the summer and when you add Ashley, Mariah Bell, Bradie, and a possibly rejuvenated Gracie Gold, what Mirai needs is to skate cleanly and rotate all of her jumps with security. In the US, that will be enough to get her on the team even without a 3A. I think they'll have her try it on the GP and if it goes well, great. If not, I hope they let it go and focus on clean, well performed triple triples, and backloading.

 

[VIETgrlTerifa]

Just the 3A won't be enough, though. Landing a beautiful 3A and then under rotating three other triples will land her in the same spot she's been in.

Yes, that's true. We know she's capable of landing all fully-rotated triples in one program, but we also know she can easily UR 3-4 of them as well. Having a 3A and giving a clean performance like she did at 2017 4CC LP would have possibly resulted in a 4CC win. I think people are excited not only for that beautiful and clean 3A but that it may also mean she's skating with more tension and attack and focus than she had in the past few seasons and that may carry over in her jumps. I think that if she's going to be up and down with or without the 3A, she might as well keep going for the 3A if she's capable of hitting it every so often.

Exactly! I still have to wonder how much time this 3A takes away from the rest of her skating. Mirai, is not like Tuk when it comes to components. When she's performing well, she has the ability to light up an arena. Her spins are fast, centered, and her positions are as good, if not better than most of the US Ladies. IMO, her focus should be making the US team. Karen has skated so well over the summer and when you add Ashley, Mariah Bell, Bradie, and a possibly rejuvenated Gracie Gold, what Mirai needs to skate cleanly and rotate all of her jumps with security. In the US, that will be enough to get her on the team even without a 3A. I think they'll have her try it on the GP and if it goes well, great. If not, I hope they let it go and focus on clean, well performed triple triples, and backloading.

After all these years, I think all this focus on making sure she's skating super clean while making sure nothing is UR and that she brings emotion and making the team has done her head in even without the 3A. At least the 3A is giving her something new to focus on and may help the rest of her skating. And if it distracts from her ability to perform, she was already critiqued for that without the 3A attempts and I think there's not much that can be done about that considering how her focus is probably due to her being super focused about her jumps and rotations after years of developing a complex about it. Might as well just go for an exciting new jump that she can be proud of landing if she hits it.

 

[chuckm]

The problem is she's never 'hit it' in competition so far, it's always <<. Given her competition nerves, the probability of her landing 3a in a do-or-die event like Nationals is low, and not landing it could mean not making the O team, especially if the extra adrenaline causes her to mess up the rest of her program. Anyone who saw Tursynbaeva go for the 4S last weekend in Canada knows how that happens: Lizabet fell on the 4s<< and after that, the program was one misstep after another.

 

[VIETgrlTerifa]

The problem is she's never 'hit it' in competition so far, it's always <<. Given her competition nerves, the probability of her landing 3a in a do-or-die event like Nationals is low, and not landing it could mean not making the O team, especially if the extra adrenaline causes her to mess up the rest of her program. Anyone who saw Tursynbaeva go for the 4S last weekend in Canada knows how that happens: Lizabet fell on the 4s<< and after that, the program was one misstep after another.

Yeah but people do things for the first time all the time. So long as she keeps practicing it and feels confident to show videos of her hitting beautiful ones like the one she did above, then there's NO reason for her to not go for it otherwise she's just wasting time. If she's going to do it in practice she needs to keep trying it in competition. That's the only way she can have any chance of hitting it in competition. She's practicing it whether we like it or not and nothing we say here is changing that fact, so she needs to go for it. I also don't think whether or not she goes for it will affect her probability of missing out on the Olympic team because she has issues with or without the 3A. I think it's pretty equal all things considered. We all know that even without the 3A, Mirai is perfectly capable of imploding or URing herself into oblivion anyway. Plus, not every skater reacts to missing their big element the same. We've seen a lot of skaters hit the rest of their routine more-or-less after missing that one big element. Mirai, for all that I've said, has also shown she can come back from a mistake. She's that type of hot/cold skater. We never know what we're going to get. Now, come back to me after Nationals if she misses third place if she has a << 3A and a good Mirai 2A would have made up the difference.

 

[Ender]

The top ladies don't risk with highly difficult jumps. The last top lady who risked was Asada. However right now another Asada might not get the same benefits as everyone is landing 7 triples left and right.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

That toe is so clearly under...

Agreed... I'm all for giving skaters the benefit of the doubt (especially a skater as wonderful as Karen). But that was so obvious!

... it's mind blowing that anyone, ever, would argue differently.

Also agreed. But BoP is entitled to his opinion of what he sees, even if the vast majority of tech specialists would likely contradict him.

Certainly for the Olympics to be a contender, Karen needs to gets less questionable landings on her 3T combos. Assuring her that all her landings are now legit/"good enough" is hurting her more than helping her.

 

[largeman]

I've taken a screenshot of where her toeloop takeoff starts - Karen Chen 2016 NHK LP toeloop start

As you can see, her blade is indeed facing the camera. Karen does not cheat with excessive pre-rotation on any of her jumps, so this toeloop leaves the ice within the allotted 1/2 turn from the start of the takeoff. Look and see for yourself - Karen Chen 2016 NHK LP toeloop leaving the ice

So, she needs to land within 90 degrees past that point, aka at least sideways of our view. Here is here landing - Karen Chen 2016 NHK LP toeloop landing - She is sideways there and hopefully you are able to see that, so we don't have to send you to an eye doctor. There are other camera angles too, where you can clearly see the takeoff and landing points. She's within the 1/4 turn.

That toe is so clearly under it's mind blowing that anyone, ever, would argue differently.

I look at Karen Chen's 3T exactly the same way as BoP does, and I argued in the same way for it when people called her 3T in the SP at Worlds blatantly UR. My argument was rebutted by Daniel1998: http://goldenskate.com/forum/showth...ld-Ladies-SP&p=1681973&viewfull=1#post1681973

The reason I disagree is because, though based on where her skating foot was at the takeoff, she was within a quarter rotation (maybe), her skating foot and body/direction of travel were not aligned at the beginning of the jump. If we're using her skating foot as a guide to where her rotation started, her body was way pre-rotated, and you can see that based on how much she needed to hook the landing to start skating backwards. It's cheap to argue your jump was rotated because of where your skating foot was if your body was already turned beforehand.

I do think his comment had merit and I could also see it this way. BoP - what do you think?

 

[hippomoomin]

That's the reason I don't think there will be a significant positive change for Mirai. 3A is nice, but the flaws in her other jumps have to be addressed too. At this stage of her career, it seems too much work to do.

Just the 3A won't be enough, though. Landing a beautiful 3A and then under rotating three other triples will land her in the same spot she's been in.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

The problem is she's never 'hit it' in competition so far, it's always <<. Given her competition nerves, the probability of her landing 3a in a do-or-die event like Nationals is low, and not landing it could mean not making the O team, especially if the extra adrenaline causes her to mess up the rest of her program.

Despite the videos, we don't know the success rate of the jump in practice. Is it 10%? Is it 80%? We saw a few videos of fully rotated practice 3A's leading up to Nationals, but in the practices I don't think she landed a single one. Unless her success rate has improved, I don't think she'd land it in an important event.

 

[mrrice]

Despite the videos, we don't know the success rate of the jump in practice. Is it 10%? Is it 80%? We saw a few videos of fully rotated practice 3A's leading up to Nationals, but in the practices I don't think she landed a single one. Unless her success rate has improved, I don't think she'd land it in an important event.

Correct...We have also never seen her do it during a FULL run through of her program. I remember when Kimmie Meissner tried adding a 3A and she did a couple of them in Practice and I believe she tried one in competition but, it was not fully rotated and didn't really add that much to her program. If Mirai can execute this jump without the look of sheer terror on her face, that alone will be a big deal. Here are a couple of Kimmie's attempts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWU4YeBNRws

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Correct...We have also never seen her do it during a FULL run through of her program. I remember when Kimmie Meissner tried adding a 3A and she did a couple of them in Practice and I believe she tried one in competition but, it was not fully rotated and didn't really add that much to her program. If Mirai can execute this jump without the look of sheer terror on her face, that alone will be a big deal. Here are a couple of Kimmie's attempts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWU4YeBNRws

I believe the (very generous) USFSA ratified the attempt at Nationals, although that obviously doesn't count as one completed internationally.

 

[VIETgrlTerifa]

I don't see the need make a judgment call on it until the season starts. You could be right, you could be wrong. People shouldn't be so married to their ideas of what a skater can or cannot do until it becomes clearer. I feel like continuing to point out the obvious or to paint this as a negative is signaling something that I won't get into. I just think if she's already spending so much time on the 3A in practice, she should do it in competition because otherwise she's wasting her time even practicing it when she could be doing something else. I do think chronic UR problems when she gets nervous or whatever is something she's always going to have so time to start focusing on something that probably boosts her confidence.

 

[chuckm]

Mirai has been working on 3a for at least two years now, and she is 24 years old. Even 22 is rather old to attempt to learn a jump that in the past has been mastered in the early teen years by those few who were able to successfully execute 3a in competition. And even some of those (Harding, Asada) became less successful with the 3a as they got into their 20s.

 

[Blades of Passion]

That toe is so clearly under it's mind blowing that anyone, ever, would argue differently.

It's clearly 1/4 turn under, which is within the rules to receive credit. Feel free to do some video analysis with a digital protractor.

BoP is entitled to his opinion of what he sees, even if the vast majority of tech specialists would likely contradict him.

"The vast majority" wouldn't contradict me. Maybe you could learn instead of disengaging from the actual evidence and process of examination? It won't kill you to admit you were wrong. Tech specialists have made mistakes and this entire process of analyzing jumps is something that is still in the process of being understood by the ISU.

I look at Karen Chen's 3T exactly the same way as BoP does, and I argued in the same way for it when people called her 3T in the SP at Worlds blatantly UR. My argument was rebutted by Daniel1998. BoP - what do you think?

Karen's 3T in the SP at Worlds was another case like this (although at NHK she was also tilted in the air), 1/4 turn under on the landing, with the blade visibly turning on the ice as she lands, a bit more controlled at Worlds than at NHK as well. Someone may say a jump has a "blatant underrotation" just because they see a turn on the landing, but that isn't accurate. All that matters is determining what the 1/4 turn landing point should be, based upon the takeoff of the jump, and then seeing if the skater got there or not. (Daniel1998 talking about upper body position is also nonsense, only the feet matter for judging rotation).

 

[4everchan]

then just a question

i am not a skater and definitely not a tech specialist...

whether or not i see a jump < or << is probably up for debate... so I'd like to ask the "experts" of GS the following question.


I dislike when a skater has a hook landing... are skaters penalized for that? Shouldn't a jump have its clear and flowing landing edge? Skaters are penalized for very stiff/stopped landings and 2Foot landings... are they marked down for the hooks? I am talking GOE obviously....

Because in any case, whether or not Karen's jumps here are rotated, there is still a flaw in her technical ability if she constantly hooks the landings... we have seen this with other skaters as well...

Should she be penalized?

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

4everchan, I would say that a hooked landing is flawed technique that indicates under-rotation (which - lo and behold - she was called for in that instance), and as such, the skater would get reduced GOE.

"The vast majority" wouldn't contradict me. Maybe you could learn instead of disengaging from the actual evidence and process of examination? It won't kill you to admit you were wrong. Tech specialists have made mistakes and this entire process of analyzing jumps is something that is still in the process of being understood by the ISU..

Funny, I was initially wanting to say the same thing to you, but decided to diplomatically say that we're entitled to view things differently. You're definitely seeing very different things in your screenshots. You do you, boo.

I'd love to hear your explanation of the hooked landing and whether you think she should have been deducted for it. Let me guess... creative exit - so more GOE?

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Mirai has been working on 3a for at least two years now, and she is 24 years old. Even 22 is rather old to attempt to learn a jump that in the past has been mastered in the early teen years by those few who were able to successfully execute 3a in competition. And even some of those (Harding, Asada) became less successful with the 3a as they got into their 20s.

Age is a factor, but not a determinant. After all, Tuktamysheva wasn't landing a 3A in competition until later in her career. Not to mention the Alionas and Meaghans and Kavagutis and Stellatos doing throw 3As and quads, when their younger selves avoided it. I give Mirai kudos for challenging herself.... and she has some nice practice attempts. I'd love to see her bring it to competition though. Skate Detroit was a fantastic skate for her, and even jumps she's URed in the past were more confident with better snap and rotation.

 

[chuckm]

Mirai Nagasu has been gigged for hooked landings, which for her are a dead giveaway of URs....

 

[Ic3Rabbit]

Mirai Nagasu has been gigged for hooked landings, which for her are a dead giveaway of URs....

As are "thud" sounding landings.....

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Age is a factor, but not a determinant. After all, Tuktamysheva wasn't landing a 3A in competition until later in her career.

She was landing them in practice since at least age 13: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdkDLBmBFBU