Ladies OGM Contenders 2018

[drivingmissdaisy]

Also for having a pretty face. If she didn't have a pretty face her scores wouldn't be so high, but physical appearance makes her more marketable. The ISU wants her to win because a marketable person winning the titles brings them more money.

I think it's probably a bit more nuanced than that. That she is pretty certainly helps, but I think the ISU is happy with having any consistent name at the top for more than a year. Whether or not she is over-scored, her placements are deserved.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Whether or not she is over-scored, her placements are deserved.

But here's the thing - overscoring is part of what creates her placements now. When your competitors think they have no chance to win because of the scores you are getting for the exact same level of skating, or even a lesser level, it results in less pressure for you and more for everyone else.

I still want to know which female skater deserves to win 2018 OGM

Whoever skates the best at the competition, of which there are many possibilities (even if unlikely). I can see Zagitova becoming better than Medvedeva this season and the judges not caring to disrupt the coronation. Or any lady who can do clean and appealing programs with Triple Axels (Tuktamysheva, Nagasu, Higuchi being the possibilities this season it looks like) but getting held down because of not delivering until the Olympics.

Or just someone like Marin Honda doing magical programs that deserve the highest PCS.

 

[MarinHondas]

Let's start theorizing early! (Let's assume these people will be sent to the Olympics by their Feds because most of them will be)


Evgenia Medvedeva: Current World champion. If she goes clean on both programs, I do believe she's going to take home the gold.

Alina Zagitova: Current Junior World's champion. A very real threat. She's fairly musical, but needs to develop her artistry (especially lines) and her rippons are to die for. She skates consistently too.

Kaetlyn Osmond: Current World's silver medalist. Can she get it together and pose a threat?

Marin Honda: Current Junior World's silver medalist. Japan's new ice skating princess. Personally, a fan of her skating. Programs feel like a program, and has the natural ability to create "magic" organically.

Satoko Miyahara: Miss Quiet Artistry. Perpetually underscored, but will she have a breakthrough this season?

Anna Pogorilaya: The Amazon. Pogo herself to OGM?

The Others: Mai Mihara, Polina Tsurskaya, Maria Sotskova, Elena Radionova, Ashley Wagner, Karen Chen, Gabriel Daleman, Carolina Kostner

Edit: Added Carolina Kostner

I imagine Evgenia gold Alina silver and bronze is open. If karen knocks it out of the park she might sneak on to the podium but there are way too many contenders to guess 3rd place.

 

[Bluediamonds09]

"Whoever wins the season wins the BIG gold." At least, that's what I've heard. It's not always true. But we should pay attention to the skaters who have a good season because that counts for a LOT. At the Olympics they'll be propped up for their consistency.

It's WAY too early to tell right now though!

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

But here's the thing - overscoring is part of what creates her placements now. When your competitors think they have no chance to win because of the scores you are getting for the exact same level of skating, or even a lesser level, it results in less pressure for you and more for everyone else.

That's a fair point. Consistency in the jumps has always been rewarded, though. Surya Bonaly's presentation marks largely reflected her jumping ability. It's easy for the judges to reward Evgenia because her competitors are so inconsistent; they never give themselves a chance to be in the mix. Neither of the Canadian medalists at Worlds won a single GP event, so I don't think that, in the judges' minds, they were considered gold contenders. Both Gracie and Ashley could have beaten Evgenia at 2016 Worlds by just matching her TES scores, but did not.

 

[mrrice]

That's a fair point. Consistency in the jumps has always been rewarded, though. Surya Bonaly's presentation marks largely reflected her jumping ability. It's easy for the judges to reward Evgenia because her competitors are so inconsistent; they never give themselves a chance to be in the mix. Neither of the Canadian medalists at Worlds won a single GP event, so I don't think that, in the judges' minds, they were considered gold contenders. Both Gracie and Ashley could have beaten Evgenia at 2016 Worlds by just matching her TES scores, but did not.

Exactly. Had Gracie repeated her LP performance from Nationals, she would have been World Champion in 2016. She led after the SP and had the event in the palm of her hands. She went in as the US Champion and lost to Ashley who delivered the goods when it counted.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Yes but it's the consistency in addition to being a very pretty girl that makes it so easy for the ISU to back Medvedeva.

Yu-Na Kim being considered sexier than Mao Asada was what made the ISU so eager to annoint the former in 2010. Then she stopped doing Grand Prix events, so the ISU no longer had use for her in 2014, since she didn't bring them the money they wanted.

This is trivializing Kim (as you did with Med) to just a pretty face and not the strong competitors they are that allow them to win. Asada wasn't exactly lighting it up in 2010 (other than the FS at 4CC she had no momentum -- didn't even make the GPF). That had nothing to do with Kim's looks.

The same way Medvedeva's looks have nothing to do with the field's errors and inconsistencies that continue to allow her to be ahead of them. She's not the first super consistent but not super artistic skater from Russia projected to win the Olympics because they are a much stronger competitor with nobody stepping up to truly challenge her.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Both Gracie and Ashley could have beaten Evgenia at 2016 Worlds by just matching her TES scores, but did not.

Yes but since then the door has closed (and it was only open for Ashley in the first place because of that Worlds being in the USA) and as a result we saw Evgenia just copying herself last season and just focusing on more arms-over-the-head jumps instead of any actual improvement of technique, her 3Sal+3Toe combo only getting worse, and her scores only going up and up.

This is trivializing Kim (as you did with Med) to just a pretty face and not the strong competitors they are that allow them to win.

No it isn't. Of course they are strong competitors, but there are other factors in play for why the ISU helps them out (or doesn't help them out, as mentioned with Kim when she stopped doing Grand Prix events).

 

[Spirals for Miles]

(in response to OS from a couple of pages ago ) I sincerely doubt Polina has a chance at the team... Yes, she's got good jumps. When she's on. And after you miss 1.5 seasons, the audiences (which contain the judges) start to forget you a little bit (unless you're someone like Mao or Yuna) and so I don't think she has the control over the audience that someone like Wagner does. That's important especially in the Olympics

 

[stella luna]

I sincerely doubt Polina has a chance at the team... Yes, she's got good jumps. When she's on. And after you miss 1.5 seasons, the audiences (which contain the judges) start to forget you a little bit (unless you're someone like Mao or Yuna) and so I don't think she has the control over the audience that someone like Wagner does. That's important especially in the Olympics

I prefer to wait and see on that. I don't think audiences have forgotten her, for instance, several people on here certainly haven't. If she can deliver on her early promise it could be a good thing for US figure skating.

 

[mrrice]

I sincerely doubt Polina has a chance at the team... Yes, she's got good jumps. When she's on. And after you miss 1.5 seasons, the audiences (which contain the judges) start to forget you a little bit (unless you're someone like Mao or Yuna) and so I don't think she has the control over the audience that someone like Wagner does. That's important especially in the Olympics

You'd be surprised at the impact Polina can make when she's on. Most skaters, and especially Diva Wagner, are tiny. Polina is an Amazon and she makes quite an impression when she steps on the ice. What some people need to remember is that Polina is from San Jose and the crowd at Nationals will be screaming for their hometown girl. I know that I will be there so, look out for the black guy in the cowboy boots.... All we really want to see is some good skating. Personally, I'll be surprised but not shocked, if Polina makes the team. Rudy Galindo is a great coach and I think Polina will be ready by the time Nationals rolls around.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

You'd be surprised at the impact Polina can make when she's on. Most skaters, and especially Diva Wagner, are tiny. Polina is an Amazon and she makes quite an impression when she steps on the ice. What some people need to remember is that Polina is from San Jose and the crowd at Nationals will be screaming for their hometown girl. I know that I will be there so, look out for the black guy in the cowboy boots.... All we really want to see is some good skating. Personally, I'll be surprised but not shocked, if Polina makes the team. Rudy Galindo is a great coach and I think Polina will be ready by the time Nationals rolls around.

Yes, the home crowd will give her an advantage. But she's also a student right now, whereas skaters such as Zhenya aren't. USFSA does like themselves a Polina, so I guess she does have a chance.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Yes but since then the door has closed (and it was only open for Ashley in the first place because of that Worlds being in the USA) and as a result we saw Evgenia just copying herself last season and just focusing on more arms-over-the-head jumps instead of any actual improvement of technique, her 3Sal+3Toe combo only getting worse, and her scores only going up and up.



No it isn't. Of course they are strong competitors, but there are other factors in play for why the ISU helps them out (or doesn't help them out, as mentioned with Kim when she stopped doing Grand Prix events).

Of course there are other factors but to speculate it's because they're a "pretty face" is absurd. Going into the Olympics, Asada was Japanese champion, Four Continents champion, and incredibly popular (even not in Japan) -- plus she won the 2008 World Championship.

Kwan was way more marketable than Lipinski or Hughes but the ISU didn't intervene there. Cohen winning would have been more marketable than Arakawa. But they got outskated. Skaters get wins for skating pretty not being the prettiest.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

THIS. Couldn't have said it better myself ! :agree:

 

[largeman]

Yes but since then the door has closed (and it was only open for Ashley in the first place because of that Worlds being in the USA) and as a result we saw Evgenia just copying herself last season and just focusing on more arms-over-the-head jumps instead of any actual improvement of technique, her 3Sal+3Toe combo only getting worse, and her scores only going up and up.

[...] Of course they are strong competitors, but there are other factors in play for why the ISU helps them out (or doesn't help them out, as mentioned with Kim when she stopped doing Grand Prix events).

One thing I'll say about Yuna Kim... her jumps always deserved the GOEs they received.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

One thing I'll say about Yuna Kim... her jumps always deserved the GOEs they received.

Medvedeva is overscored on some elements for lacking height/distance and muscling but her jumps almost always fulfill at least 6 GOE bullets. 1) creative entry, 2) preceding steps, 3) varied position in the air (tano/rippon), 5) good exit extension/creative exit, 6) good flow, 7) effortless throughout (except for arguably her muscled 3T) 8) matches musical structure (she's a top skater so automatically she gets this uber subjective/pointless GOE bullet every time).

Where the other ladies fail to pick up GOE themselves is bullets 1), 2), 3) (most don't do Tanos) and 5). If they added more entrance transitions, more Tanos on their combos, and particularly (which I don't see) more exit transitions, they would be getting more comparable GOE to Medvedeva. So many times I'll see Osmond land a jump that she could easily do a transition on. Obviously the issue is making programs saturated with entrance and exit transitions, but if that's what's getting rewarded why not add more?

Medvedeva is smart in that she understand the key moment isn't just the jump itself - it's everything from the lead up to the jump to the exit transitions, and she looks to add quality to each of those areas, to make up for her lack of height/distance/perfect technique. It's skating 101 - play up your strengths to mitigate your weaknesses.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Of course there are other factors but to speculate it's because they're a "pretty face" is absurd.

It's not absurd, there have been many studies on the subject (as if studies were needed to realize it). People who are considered more physically attractive are given preference in many facets of life and it's been known for a long time that "sex sells" in business. Obviously you have to be a worthwhile skater to get anywhere as a competitive skater, and various other politics and ideas of "consistency" play into the judging when they shouldn't, but general attractiveness is part of the pecking order that gets established.

Skating is a business and people want to sell tickets and make money. Prettier/sexier people sell better, thus the profitability of figure skating organizations are inherently influenced to some degree by how attractive/sexy their champions are.

Kwan was way more marketable than Lipinski or Hughes but the ISU didn't intervene there. Cohen winning would have been more marketable than Arakawa. But they got outskated.

Kwan wasn't more marketable than Lipinski. A cute white girl breaking the record of "youngest Olympic Champion ever" is exactly what was considered most marketable at that time. Yes obviously when someone clearly gets outskated, in the eyes of the judges, that's what the result is going to be. But physical attractiveness itself can play into how nice judges are willing to be to someone and it's part of how much media attention and "fandom" will be created for a skater, thus influencing their "net worth".

Just for a moment consider - a manager interviews two people for a job. They are considered to be equally skilled, reliable, and deserving of the position. The interviewer finds one of these two equal candidates to be more pleasing to the eye. Who gets the job?

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

(in response to OS from a couple of pages ago ) I sincerely doubt Polina has a chance at the team... Yes, she's got good jumps. When she's on. And after you miss 1.5 seasons, the audiences (which contain the judges) start to forget you a little bit (unless you're someone like Mao or Yuna) and so I don't think she has the control over the audience that someone like Wagner does. That's important especially in the Olympics

I completely disagree. The US field is wide open at the moment and I think any one of five or six ladies have a real shot at not only making it but making it as the clear US #1 which comes with all those unwritten benefits. GP success or not the US Nationals is going to be a real make or break moment. Polina has had great success there as has someone like Mariah who made the Worlds team last season with only one event. Great experience by the way. I don't think the people choosing the Olympic Team will have forgotten who Polina is. Personally I'm rooting for Mariah and Polina to make it and yes....I do think either could steal the show. :yes:

Speaking on remembering....I wonder how many of the judges Ashley sees this season may have already judged her programs. Maybe not a big deal but who knows...judges are a rare bread.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

It's not absurd, there have been many studies on the subject (as if studies were needed to realize it). People who are considered more physically attractive are given preference in many facets of life and it's been known for a long time that "sex sells" in business. Obviously you have to be a worthwhile skater to get anywhere as a competitive skater, and various other politics and ideas of "consistency" play into the judging when they shouldn't, but general attractiveness is part of the pecking order that gets established.

Skating is a business and people want to sell tickets and make money. Prettier/sexier people sell better, thus the profitability of figure skating organizations are inherently influenced to some degree by how attractive/sexy their champions are.



Kwan wasn't more marketable than Lipinski. A cute white girl breaking the record of "youngest Olympic Champion ever" is exactly what was considered most marketable at that time. Yes obviously when someone clearly gets outskated, in the eyes of the judges, that's what the result is going to be. But physical attractiveness itself can play into how nice judges are willing to be to someone and it's part of how much media attention and "fandom" will be created for a skater, thus influencing their "net worth".

Just for a moment consider - a manager interviews two people for a job. They are considered to be equally skilled, reliable, and deserving of the position. The interviewer finds one of these two equal candidates to be more pleasing to the eye. Who gets the job?

When are the top skaters in the field equally skilled and reliable that it comes down to aesthetics?! Where is the PCS category and what's the Base Value for good looks?

Physical attractiveness comes into play as much as it's important for skaters to have a lovely costume or their hair did just right. But I don't see what makes Kim more attractive than Asada or what makes Asada so unattractive so as to significantly compromise her standing.

It's as preposterous as those suggesting Gracie will win everything because she's got gorgeous, blonde Hollywood features, while the others don't stand a chance. It doesn't matter if you don't skate well. People extol Anna's beauty. It didn't help her at Worlds. Morgan and Vanessa were always hot but they only were successful when their overall skating and consistency improved.

I, for one, would love to congratulate Mao Asada for winning every GP, multiple Worlds and Olympic silver... in spite of BoP labelling her as not having the prettiest face, and being held back for it. I mean, gosh, imagine her accolades if she were prettier and were actually popular within the skating community! :sarcasm:

 

[Hannah555]

So Evgenia now is the reason why other top skaters are inconsistent and she wins because of her pretty face ....
This season is crazy so these ridiculous comments don't surprise me at all...