Ladies Q A - Notes & Results
- Thread starter Rosaleen
- Start date
- Joined
- Dec 22, 2003
RealtorGal said:
No, but doing so would be the easiest way. For instance, this is mathematically possible (this is in no way my prediction, just a way to show the possibilities):
Kwan: 1.2 Q (3rd/T5th) + 1.2 SP (2nd, 2.4-3rd after SP) + 2 LP (2nd) = 4.4 (1st overall)
Ando: 0.8 Q (2nd/T3rd) + 3.0 SP (5th, 3.8-5th after SP) + 1 LP (1st) = 4.8 (2nd overall)
Cohen: 0.4 Q (1st/T1st) + 1.8 SP (3rd, 2.2-2nd after SP) + 3 LP (3rd) = 5.2 (3rd overall)
Sokolova: 0.8 Q (2nd/T3rd) + 0.6 SP (1st, 1.4-1st after SP) + 5 LP (5th) = 6.4 (4th overall)
Arakawa: 0.4 Q (1st/T1st) + 2.4 SP (4th, 2.8-4th after SP) + 4 LP (4th) = 6.8 (5th overall)
The above shows that while Kwan winning first in both the LP and SP is not the only way for her to win gold. In any other scenario, however, it is important for Kwan to finish above the women in 3rd (i.e., Ando and Sokolova) for at least one of the remaining phases of the competition and finish above the women in 1st (i.e., Cohen and Arakawa) for both remaining phases of the competition (i.e., SP and LP). She would also need to depend on some shuffling of placements (i.e., mistakes from others above her) after the SP (see the men's event for an example) and the LP. The calculations also show that Cohen and Arakawa are in good position to gain a medal of any color, especially if they can keep their top 3 standings for both the SP and LP.
By the way, it would be possible to make an exhaustive matrix of possibilities, but it probably will have little utility, as it would have so many rows. Even then, one would have to assume that each possibility is equally likely or assign probabilities to each possibility to arrive at a quasi-rigorously derived guesstimate at Kwan's chances.
InsecureEdge
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Yeah, insecureedge, with so many good skater capable of good performance. There are going to be a lot of flip flop in next 2 phases.
And I think you may add Fummie, Irina and may be Kostner into SP spoilers. Since Fummie is much consistant with her SP than LP and she had won past 2 bronz. IS's technique is back according to Richard (reported at another board) what she lacks is her stimina, which hurt her in LP but not quit in SP. Carolina Kostner had 3/3 in her SP and she had skated SP very well last worlds.
Unlike previouse worlds with only two or three good skaters on top, it was much easy to predict. Now with a whole lot good skaters and the influence of CoP judging
And I think you may add Fummie, Irina and may be Kostner into SP spoilers. Since Fummie is much consistant with her SP than LP and she had won past 2 bronz. IS's technique is back according to Richard (reported at another board) what she lacks is her stimina, which hurt her in LP but not quit in SP. Carolina Kostner had 3/3 in her SP and she had skated SP very well last worlds.
Unlike previouse worlds with only two or three good skaters on top, it was much easy to predict. Now with a whole lot good skaters and the influence of CoP judging
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2003
Joesitz said:
The reports stated that Michelle only fell once, and popped her loop. If Ando can be placed 2nd aftter a fall, and the completion of one more triple than Michelle, then 3rd is certainly not an unrealistic placement. Now if Michelle has lost most of her excellent skating technique then the possibility of a lower placement becomes more feasible.
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- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
Kwaantessence + No one in my group in Dortmund was pleased to see Ando placed second, but that's the way it was. It was and most likely will be Arakawa as the star of this competition. That is if TT has anything to do with it.
Shizuka was nothing short of brilliant. It will be a great competition if all goes well in the SP.
Joe
Shizuka was nothing short of brilliant. It will be a great competition if all goes well in the SP.
Joe
OK, I need to make a few comments.
This ladies event will be very exciting to see unfold, because a lot can happen. The field is very deep, and a lot of flip-flops can occur. Those who predict Michelle can come back and win, yes she certainly can winning the SP and LP, but let's face it, she will need cooperation from the top contenders to falter.
A clean SP from Michelle was enough to top last year a clean Sokolova with a 3/3, but this year she is up against Arakawa, Ando, Sokolova and Costner all closely bunched and all of them can land 3/3 in the SP. Will all of them falter??? hhhmmm
Also Cohen, on another note, without 3/3 but with her presentation I feel can get the edge over Michelle, depends how the judges will see it.
So this will be very interesting....
And watch out, if Ando lands a clean 4s and her 3z/3l....forget it, this is the technical section of the competition, nobody will catch her in the SP.
The field is deep, an error in the SP could be very costly, it'll depend on how the field does in general, because you have Suguri, Liashenko, Sebestyen, Slutskaya and others behind, so risk takers can be tumbling down through the ranks big time.
I hope Joannie Rochette and Jennifer Robinson continue to skate well, so they assure 2 places for next year for Canada.
Herios
This ladies event will be very exciting to see unfold, because a lot can happen. The field is very deep, and a lot of flip-flops can occur. Those who predict Michelle can come back and win, yes she certainly can winning the SP and LP, but let's face it, she will need cooperation from the top contenders to falter.
A clean SP from Michelle was enough to top last year a clean Sokolova with a 3/3, but this year she is up against Arakawa, Ando, Sokolova and Costner all closely bunched and all of them can land 3/3 in the SP. Will all of them falter??? hhhmmm
Also Cohen, on another note, without 3/3 but with her presentation I feel can get the edge over Michelle, depends how the judges will see it.
So this will be very interesting....
And watch out, if Ando lands a clean 4s and her 3z/3l....forget it, this is the technical section of the competition, nobody will catch her in the SP.
The field is deep, an error in the SP could be very costly, it'll depend on how the field does in general, because you have Suguri, Liashenko, Sebestyen, Slutskaya and others behind, so risk takers can be tumbling down through the ranks big time.
I hope Joannie Rochette and Jennifer Robinson continue to skate well, so they assure 2 places for next year for Canada.
Herios
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2003
LOL on the mathematical possibilities...
....and everyone thought the CoP was complicated!!!
All kidding aside, I don't remember a ladies competition in the past that was this deep. (I'm sure there have been some and I just don't remember them this way) This is going to be so exciting to follow!!
DG
....and everyone thought the CoP was complicated!!!
All kidding aside, I don't remember a ladies competition in the past that was this deep. (I'm sure there have been some and I just don't remember them this way) This is going to be so exciting to follow!!
DG
- Joined
- Sep 26, 2003
Of course Michelle Kwan can still win this competition, but this judging system to this day has me very unsteady. Last years world I don't care how if she went out and landed 9 triple triples...Elena Sokolova's skating does not and has not ever constituted anything higher than a 5.7 for presentation. If everyone skates clean in the SP, I have a feeling that Michelle Kwan will most likely find herself in 3rd place in the SP because of her skate order and Sashas superb sp if she skates it clean. Elena will probably skate a clean SP with a 3lutz/3toe and I just have the feeling that the judges will give her the nod. I really hate this 6.0 system, it really needs to find its way to the garbage.
On the other hand as far as Michelle and her future, I think she will not be going anywhere....
On the other hand as far as Michelle and her future, I think she will not be going anywhere....
Not going to any event of Grand Prix certainly did not give Michelle Kwan any advantage. She did not see how much progress the other skaters besides Sasha Cohen have made, and she also did not fully realize how many talented newcomers with great jumping ability. Only attending National is not enough.
Sasha Cohen made a lot improvement since national in terms of flow, power, and choreography. I suspect both Michelle and her coach did get situation they might come cross well prepared. Keeping a title is much harder than getting it first time.
Sasha Cohen made a lot improvement since national in terms of flow, power, and choreography. I suspect both Michelle and her coach did get situation they might come cross well prepared. Keeping a title is much harder than getting it first time.
- Joined
- Aug 27, 2003
Has Shizuka Arakawa started training with Tarasova? I noticed a couple references to "TT" in this thread when people were talking about Arakawa. Did I miss something there?
jesslily said:
I agree that not competing often might not be the best strategies. But to say that Michelle doesn't know about these skaters is a little bit oversimplification. If you and I know about these skaters, then certainly her coach and her knows it as well.
She is getting a new coach and train to get hard technical jumps in. That's improving isn't it? Just because we didn't see Michelle compete, doesn't mean she didn't improve.
Not that I am good at reading minds, but I think not skating might be Michelle's strategies. After skating the same program for so long, the judges will get to know it, and reading it. They will compare it to the other times that they have seen the program. But if that it was the first or second time they see it, it might be more interesting to them.
Michelle has been through so many competitions she knows how to compete and does not lack experience like the other skaters. Others need to go to different competitions to get that experience.
Re: LOL on the mathematical possibilities...
Worlds-wise, I agree. I've watched every one since 1979 and I don't ever remember a field like this. If Irina and Viktoria were in top form (which by all indications to me anyway they are not), this would REALLY be something.....Although it already is!!
Doggygirl said:
Worlds-wise, I agree. I've watched every one since 1979 and I don't ever remember a field like this. If Irina and Viktoria were in top form (which by all indications to me anyway they are not), this would REALLY be something.....Although it already is!!
Sure Michelle knows how to compete. But each year your competitors are different, or some are your last years rivals but with whole new tricks. This year there are definitly many strong medal contenders with triple triple and well choreographed programs. I still wish Michelle can fight back and get the gold medal.
- Joined
- Aug 27, 2003
Thanks for the link, Pati. That certainly thickens the plot! I'm sure TT would just LOVE to see Shizuka beat Sasha now!!
I wonder how TT and Shizuka communicate, though. Doesn't TT mostly speak Russian?
I wonder how TT and Shizuka communicate, though. Doesn't TT mostly speak Russian?
- Joined
- Mar 25, 2004
Does anyone else feel Fumie was robbed? If the reports are right, she did a 3/3 with 5 clean triples. She also has the best speed, flow, and crossover action of anyone. How is she in 15th!?
I read somewhere that she was kind of shaky but I don't get this QR stuff. Why does it even need to count? I don't even get why they need a QR. They have a Grand Prix system and they give the skaters a rank. Why don't they do it like tennis and have only the unseeded skaters skate the QR?
