Lysacek to take over as leader of U.S mens skating over Weir fully, for good next yr.

[chuckm]

slutskayafan21: "Bringing up Cohen-Kwan examples is a poor choice anyway, since Cohen and Kwan were always fairly close in stature and momentum going into events at all times from 03-05; and Hughes absolutely never would have been seen as the chosen one over either of those two, even in the 03 season, I have no idea where you get that idea. I am not predicting that to be the case when it comes to Weir-Lysacek, which would make it totally different then Cohen-Kwan. Anyway Weir and Lysacek are not the equivalent of Cohen and Kwan in their mutual primes, they are not as prominent on a World stage, so you are better off backing one more then the other, and as you can see by many of the responses other sense that backing going more towards Lysacek at the moment. As somebody said earlier my thread is the 3rd started on the subject here, that is telling."

I think it is a perfect parallel. Weir is now a 3-time US champion who had consistently beaten Lysacek even as a Junior. Cohen was Kwan's main challenger, just as Lysacek is Weir's, and at 2004-2005 Nationals, Cohen was the one with the superior international standing.

It was your rationale which said Lysacek was a cinch to win the 2007 US championship on a basis of his international results. The same could have been said of Cohen in 2004-2005. As it turned out, it was skating, not international results, which won the Ladies championship.

Weir comes to Nationals loaded for bear and delivers, while Lysacek can't quite put it together. Perhaps Lysacek seems to have as much of a mental block when it comes to Nationals as you say Weir has at Worlds.

 

[slutskayafan21]

slutskayafan21: "Bringing up Cohen-Kwan examples is a poor choice anyway, since Cohen and Kwan were always fairly close in stature and momentum going into events at all times from 03-05; and Hughes absolutely never would have been seen as the chosen one over either of those two, even in the 03 season, I have no idea where you get that idea. I am not predicting that to be the case when it comes to Weir-Lysacek, which would make it totally different then Cohen-Kwan. Anyway Weir and Lysacek are not the equivalent of Cohen and Kwan in their mutual primes, they are not as prominent on a World stage, so you are better off backing one more then the other, and as you can see by many of the responses other sense that backing going more towards Lysacek at the moment. As somebody said earlier my thread is the 3rd started on the subject here, that is telling."

I think it is a perfect parallel. Weir is now a 3-time US champion who had consistently beaten Lysacek even as a Junior. Cohen was Kwan's main challenger, just as Lysacek is Weir's, and at 2004-2005 Nationals, Cohen was the one with the superior international standing.

It was your rationale which said Lysacek was a cinch to win the 2007 US championship on a basis of his international results. The same could have been said of Cohen in 2004-2005. As it turned out, it was skating, not international results, which won the Ladies championship.

Weir comes to Nationals loaded for bear and delivers, while Lysacek can't quite put it together. Perhaps Lysacek seems to have as much of a mental block when it comes to Nationals as you say Weir has at Worlds.

Ok I see your point when you put it that way.

However were you not surprised that at this years past Nationals Lysacek had 3 major errors in 2 programs, Weir had his best competition of the year, with an amazing short program, and his best free skate of the year, and still won by less then a point only? This was BEFORE what happened at the Olympics and Worlds as well.

 

[debdelilah]

Given his "free spirit" personality and his insistence on making up his programs as he goes along, which he has done at EVERY event this year in the long program, seeing him sticking to very COP-friendly programs that Evan skates is hard to see to be honest. Evan makes up huge points on Johnny by scraping and pinching for every point he can get on the TES scores by using the system. Johnny is the polar opposite to him in that regard.

You are right alot of people were down on Johnny and high on Evan after this years major events. I am surprised you wouldnt see why exactly that is though.
Evan as overscored and overhyped as I find him to be, showed himself to be a much more determined competitor, and willing to fight adversity this past year much more then Johnny did.

The late bloomer theory would seem to mean more if he wasnt being passed by so many skaters in recent years. He used to bet Buttle regularly as a junior, but has lost to him regularly in the last 2 years, Buttle is older and has skated many more years since he started skating when he was 5, yet he has passed Johnny in the last 2 years after being behind years in the past. 18-year old Oda beat Johnny in both of their meetings this year, including his debut at Worlds. Lambiel has distanced himself more and more from Johnny since finishing 1 spot above him at the 04 Worlds. Evan has beaten Johnny at the last 3 World events, after Johnny coming to the 05 Worlds as the clear-cut U.S #1 and a huge medal hopeful.

But the huge change of the last two years is COP, and Buttle took immense advantage of it, while Johnny strugged with it. That's what went wrong with his long program this past season--he had spent a long time forming and practicing a program, only to have the USFSA not approve it. Then he had to change it suddenly, and ended up not liking it and switching abruptly to an old, unpracticed program--Otonal. Johnny has taken the long road to understanding COP, but that doesn't affect his physcial abilities as a skater. He just needs to have somebody in his corner who can help him maximize it, and not repeat the same fiasco that happened with planning it out last season.

I don't think that Johnny is not a fighter, or that Evan consistantly is. I think they both thrive on being the underdog, and that Johnny, in particular, does not handle the pressure of being expected to win well. Doing poorly in the SP, and feeling that you have nothing to lose and everything to prove in the LP, is an emotional advantage. Actually, all the "dark aura" jokes aside, I think Johnny is actually influenced quite a bit by emotions and stress. Failing miserably in 2003 helped him thrive in 2004. He had something to prove to himself and he proved it.

If he were in 15th place and clearly falling apart, the prediction that he will never accomplish anything significant would make more sense. But even without being at the top, he has stayed near the top, and has the ability to improve his technical score if he overcomes the emotional stress and COP confusion.

He WANTS to win, very much, and I think he has learned from this season, having read his journal. He wants to learn and he wants to change. That's a big difference from the depression he showed earlier this season, when he said he was losing his interest in skating. I think he will come into this coming season underrated, but that will make him better able to give everything he can.

 

[chuckm]

slutskayafan21: "Your point? I all but said the same thing. I pointed out Kwan beat Sasha in the long program, and probably would have overall had it not been for the short program controversy of her getting deducted for going "overtime". So Sasha's stature being over Kwan's based on defeating her at the 04 Worlds would be tenous at best."

Let's review this mathematically:

Going into the FS, here were the factored standings:

1.0 1 1 COHEN
1.6 1 2 ARAKAWA
2.6 2 3 ANDO
3.6 3 4 KWAN
4.8 3 6 SEBESTYEN
5.4 6 5 KOSTNER

For Sasha to place behind Kwan, she would have to have finished 5th or lower in the FS, and then Ando would have beaten her, too.

2.6 1 2 1 ARAKAWA
5.6 3 4 2 KWAN
5.6 2 3 3 ANDO
6.0 1 1 5 COHEN
11.4 8 7 4 SUGURI
11.4 6 5 6 KOSTNER
11.8 3 6 7 SEBESTYEN

If Kwan had not had the time deduction, she might have finished 3rd in the SP; in that case, Sasha would have to have placed 4th or lower in the FS for Kwan to beat her overall.

2.6 1 2 1 ARAKAWA
5.0 3 3 2 KWAN
5.0 1 1 4 COHEN
6.2 2 4 3 ANDO
12.4 8 7 5 SUGURI
11.4 6 5 6 KOSTNER
11.8 3 6 7 SEBESTYEN

It was Kwan's QR performances at both 2004 and 2005 Worlds that lowered her placements. The time deduction in the 2004 SP merely kept her from placing any higher than 3rd. Even if she had outright won the FS, the outcome wouldn't have changed: Shizuka would still have won gold, Sasha silver and Michelle bronze.

3.6 1 2 2 ARAKAWA
4.0 1 1 3 COHEN
4.6 3 4 1 KWAN
6.6 2 3 4 ANDO
11.4 6 5 6 KOSTNER
11.8 3 6 7 SEBESTYEN
12.4 8 7 5 SUGURI

 

[hockeyfan228]

But the huge change of the last two years is COP, and Buttle took immense advantage of it, while Johnny strugged with it. That's what went wrong with his long program this past season--he had spent a long time forming and practicing a program, only to have the USFSA not approve it. Then he had to change it suddenly, and ended up not liking it and switching abruptly to an old, unpracticed program--Otonal. Johnny has taken the long road to understanding COP, but that doesn't affect his physcial abilities as a skater. He just needs to have somebody in his corner who can help him maximize it, and not repeat the same fiasco that happened with planning it out last season.

I think that's a critical point, because Weir has not maximized point values in either of his CoP-seasons long programs. He leaves points on the table. But I also think it was counterproductive for the USFS to weigh in at all on his programs and to focus on the spin and footwork levels. Adding an 8th jumping pass would have made up the difference for half (double Axel) to all (2nd Loop or harder jump) of the level differences between the Tarasova version he loved, and the one that bored him by US Nationals.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

I think that's a critical point, because Weir has not maximized point values in either of his CoP-seasons long programs. He leaves points on the table. But I also think it was counterproductive for the USFS to weigh in at all on his programs and to focus on the spin and footwork levels. Adding an 8th jumping pass would have made up the difference for half (double Axel) to all (2nd Loop or harder jump) of the level differences between the Tarasova version he loved, and the one that bored him by US Nationals.

I believe that all of his long programs this season were choreographed to use all the jumping passes. His problem is that he changes things on the fly. So at US nationals he made a solo jump into a combination causing his final 3A combo not to count at all. Then, at worlds and Olys, he left out jumping passes altogether. What Johnny really needs is to learn not to change his program while he is doing it. Changing it can also cost him spin and footwork levels (although I'm not sure if it has). I'm not sure if Johnny ever skated the Mrvica program the way it was originally choreographed (except for possibly COR, where he was not at his best)

I do think that if Johnny can manage two quads at worlds when he quite obviously didn't feel well, and Evan can manage a 4-3 (albeit not clean) on his second (or third? I can't remember if he tried at SA) try, they can probably do it again. Hopefully they will both start out the season with good (and NEW) programs and stick with them.

I am very torn between Evan and Johnny; I am a fan of both of them. (As well as quite a few others)

 

[chuckm]

I like both Johnny and Evan too, but there is something about Johnny's skating that is like no one else's. I hope he will learn a lot from his mistakes and come out like gangbusters this coming season.

 

[attyfan]

...

Bringing up Cohen-Kwan examples is a poor choice anyway, since Cohen and Kwan were always fairly close in stature and momentum going into events at all times from 03-05; ...

What about Kwan/Lipinski? Tara defeated Michelle at Nats, GPF and Worlds in '97, but at '98 Nats, Kwan outskated Lipinski and was marked accordingly. Lipinski's international success didn't result in a Nat title that was unwarranted in '98, and, I don't think Evan's international success will do so either.

 

[chuckm]

What about Kwan/Lipinski? Tara defeated Michelle at Nats, GPF and Worlds in '97, but at '98 Nats, Kwan outskated Lipinski and was marked accordingly. Lipinski's international success didn't result in a Nat title that was unwarranted in '98, and, I don't think Evan's international success will do so either.

Tara fell in the SP at '98 Nationals and burst into tears. She pulled up to 2nd in the FS, but Michelle's '98 Nationals performances were among the best of her career. She got eight 6.0s in the SP and nine in the FS. I saw a tape of her FS performance, and when she finished to a standing ovation, the camera switched to Tara's face (she was not too thrilled).

 

[slutskayafan21]

The funniest thing of all about the Kwan-Lipinski rivalry is everybody said many times Tara would have no chance to beat a clean Michelle, and yet the only time they both skated cleanly Tara(98 Olympics). I do agree that Michelle would win almost every time in the hypothical event of both skating cleanly, it is just ironic the way it worked out that the one time that actually occured it went totally differently then anybody predicted.

Kwan's Olympic performances in 98 while great, were only about 85% of her Nationals performances though, and Tara skated the performance of her life in the long program.