Maximum skaters at GPF

[pitterpatter]

Does anyone know if there is a limit on the number of skaters that a federation can qualify for the GPF? I've been following the men (and have lurked on this forum for quite a while now) and 4 different Japanese men have medaled at a GP event so far, with Takahashi still to come. I know there's a maximum of 3 for worlds, but I can't quite find out if that rule applies to the GPF too. It'd be great if someone knows!

 

[Mrs. P]

Does anyone know if there is a limit on the number of skaters that a federation can qualify for the GPF? I've been following the men (and have lurked on this forum for quite a while now) and 4 different Japanese men have medaled at a GP event so far, with Takahashi still to come. I know there's a maximum of 3 for worlds, but I can't quite find out if that rule applies to the GPF too. It'd be great if someone knows!

As far as I know there is no limit on the no. of GPF participants by countries.

I loved Machida at Skate America -- could watch his SP all day long. That guy is dynamic live! He's at Cup of China next week, along with his countryman, Daisuke Takahashi. He could sneak in there for the silver, depending on how Nan Song and Brian Joubert will do. I think he could easily beat Adam Rippon -- though perhaps Rippon could surprise me. But even with the silver, I'm not sure if it would be enough.

I think we could see up to 3 Japanese skaters at the GPF, similar to 2010-2011 when Daisuke, Taka and Nobunari made it to the final. It would be something if they could sneak a fourth one in there, but it's doubtful.

 

[Mathman]

Welcome, pitterpatter. Thanks for joining us. Post often, post long!

 

[Tonichelle]

yes, welcome, pitterpatter!

as to your question - I don't think there's a limit, but the way that the GP is set up, is it possible to have more than 3 qualify?

 

[skateluvr]

Don't they take the six with best scores regardless of where they are from?

 

[Becki]

Looking at the entries in each competition, it seems like Patrick and Nobunari will meet again at CoR (damn!) Really wish Nobunari was placed at TEB because he barely has any competition imho. Nobunari would have to place at least second (and maybe even first) in his next event to go to GPF. Of course, that'll depend on how the other skaters do.

I don't think four Japanese men will make it into GPF, but most likely three. I'll put my money on Takahiko and Daisuke for now, and I want Yuzuru to also make it. Yuzuru at NHK will have to beat Daisuke or at least be second, which is a tall order given that Fernandez will also be there....extra competition.

Ah...this is all too exciting! I wish them all the best

 

[Mrs. P]

Looking at the entries in each competition, it seems like Patrick and Nobunari will meet again at CoR (damn!) Really wish Nobunari was placed at TEB because he barely has any competition imho. Nobunari would have to place at least second (and maybe even first) in his next event to go to GPF. Of course, that'll depend on how the other skaters do.

I don't think four Japanese men will make it into GPF, but most likely three. I'll put my money on Takahiko and Daisuke for now, and I want Yuzuru to also make it. Yuzuru at NHK will have to beat Daisuke or at least be second, which is a tall order given that Fernandez will also be there....extra competition.

Ah...this is all too exciting! I wish them all the best

Kozuka will also face Oda at CoR. So yeah Oda will have to try for second if he wants to get into GPF and that's not guaranteed.

At this point it's hard to say who will end up at GPF!

 

[Bluebonnet]

but the way that the GP is set up, is it possible to have more than 3 qualify?

I think it's possible but very unlikely. They've already dominated SA. And it's possible to have Takahashi and Hanyu occupy the top two spots in NHK. If they could dominate COR as well, the possible scenarios are:

Takahashi - NHK gold or silver; COC gold

Hanyu - SA silver; NHK gold or silver

Kozuka - SA gold; COR silver

Oda - SC bronze; COR gold

Also:

If there were no other skaters who medal twice, or if other skaters have two medals but no two silvers or above, which means that they have to push Patrick Chan to get bronze or off the podium at COR, also have to push Fernandez off the podium at NHK, then they could have four skaters go into GPF.

 

[Becki]

I think it's possible but very unlikely. They've already dominated SA. And it's possible to have Takahashi and Hanyu occupy the top two spots in NHK. If they could dominate COR as well, the possible scenarios are:

Takahashi - NHK gold or silver; COC gold

Hanyu - SA silver; NHK gold or silver

Kozuka - SA gold; COR silver

Oda - SC bronze; COR gold

Also:

If there were no other skaters who medal twice, or if other skaters have two medals but no two silvers or above, which means that they have to push Patrick Chan to get bronze or off the podium at COR, also have to push Fernandez off the podium at NHK, then they could have four skaters go into GPF.

Pushing Fernandez off the podium at NHK is easier than Chan getting bronze at CoR.....

I think Oda has the slighest chances atm given the circumstances. But who knows, it will be interesting to know who ends at GPF!

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Russia had four men in 1997/98: Urmanov, Kulik, Abt and Plushenko, so it is possible. I think the series was set up differently, though.

 

[pitterpatter]

Thanks! Well the CoC results really threw me (and I think a lot of people) off. Machida is in and Kozuka has a good shot, but on the other hand I can't imagine either Takahashi or Hanyu not making the GPF... We might actually see four men!

 

[Blades of Passion]

There could be 5 Japanese Men in the GPF, actually, after Machida's surprise victory at Cup of China today.

If Nobunari Oda wins Cup of Russia, and Takahiko Kozuka finishes at least 3rd, then there is a very likely chance that Chan will be out of the GPF and we will see 5 Japanese Men + Javier Fernandez in the GPF. Whoah.

However, Nobunari Oda has never beaten Patrick Chan (despite a lot of people feeling he deserved to place higher than Chan at Skate Canada in both 2010 and 2012), so it will likely be 4 Japanese Men + Patrick Chen + Javier Fernandez in the final. 4 entries from one country is still an extremely strong showing.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Russia had four men in 1997/98: Urmanov, Kulik, Abt and Plushenko, so it is possible.

And to think Yagudin was in the mix that year too - went to the Olympics, won Euros, and won Worlds.

The Russian Men dominated during that time period because they were taught some of the best basic skating ability and jump technique in the World, along with Russia's strong ballet/theater tradition imparting great showmanship into these Men.

These days the Japanese Men dominate because their society is all about understanding numbers and practicing with relentless discipline, as well as their ethnicity naturally tending to have super-supple knees and bodies. This makes the Japanese Men perfect for collecting CoP points.

 

[Butterscotch17]

Since Tatsuki has already qualified for the final, that could mean that either Daisuke or Yuzuru will not make it, which would be surprising.

Because 1st and 4th qualifies before second and third, doesn't it? So Takahiko Kozuka could finish as low as 4th at Rostelecom Cup and still make the Final, so he is basically a lock in my mind. Chan is, too, I think, because I don't see both Takahiko and Nobunari beating him, and as long as he is at least second, he is in the Final. Javier Fernandez would also have to bomb pretty badly not to make it, since he won Skate Canada. As long as he finishes 4th at NHK, he will qualify, and I honestly expect him to finish higher than fourth.

So we have Machida in for sure, and then Kozuka, Chan, and Fernandez almost certainly in, which only leaves two spots. At first I thought these would most likely belong to Yuzuru and Daisuke, however there is still Florent Amodio to think about. I hadn't really considered Amodio for the Final, but he finished 4th at Skate Canada, and the field at TEB is so weak that he could possibly win there, especially since he'll have the crowd behind him. If Amodio wins TEB, that would give him a 1st and a 4th, which I believe qualifies ahead of a 2nd and 3rd, so if that happens, Amodio could knock either Yuzuru or Daisuke out of the Final. Now, if Yuzuru and Daisuke go 1 and 2 at NHK, then they should both be in the Final and not Amodio, but if one of them happens to finish third behind Fernandez (definitely possible), then they would be in trouble if Florent wins at TEB, because they would only have a 2nd and a 3rd and would not make the Final.

I still think the Final will be Machida, Kozuka, Chan, Fernandez, Takahashi, and Hanyu, but if Dai or Yuzuru finish third at NHK and Florent wins TEB, Florent could end up taking their spot in the Final. Wouldn't that be something? Earlier I wouldn't have imagined that Daisuke or Yuzuru wouldn't make the Final, but it could happen.

ETA: My logic is correct, right? 1st and 4th does qualify before 2nd and 3rd?

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

yes

 

[Mrs. P]

Richard Dornbush is definitely a factor too. He actually beat Yuzuru in the free skate at Finlandia with a BV of 85 and TES of 92. So he capable of posting a huge score of he just hits the jumps even if he will get low PCS relative to his competiitors.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Richard Dornbush is definitely a factor too. He actually beat Yuzuru in the free skate at Finlandia with a BV of 85 and TES of 92. So he capable of posting a huge score of he just hits the jumps even if he will get low PCS relative to his competiitors.

Richard wasn't exactly lucky with his asignments, I think. CoR has Kozuka, Chan and Oda; while NHK has Takahashi, Hanyu and Fernandez. I guess he needs to be at least 2nd at least once, and that will need some of the others to make mistakes. And while he won on TES, Hanyu did win the FS at Finlandia overall... Richard can get huge TES, but he'll really be missing the PCS. Especially his SP I think might not get him enough points.
I'd like to see him at the GPF rather than seeing Amodio, to be honest, but I'm still a little sceptic if he can put together two clean (or at least close to clean) skates.

 

[FTnoona]

Richard wasn't exactly lucky with his asignments, I think. CoR has Kozuka, Chan and Oda; while NHK has Takahashi, Hanyu and Fernandez. I guess he needs to be at least 2nd at least once, and that will need some of the others to make mistakes. And while he won on TES, Hanyu did win the FS at Finlandia overall... Richard can get huge TES, but he'll really be missing the PCS. Especially his SP I think might not get him enough points.
I'd like to see him at the GPF rather than seeing Amodio, to be honest, but I'm still a little sceptic if he can put together two clean (or at least close to clean) skates.

Dornbush also had higher tech bv to Hanyu's (85:81). I agree that it's gonna be hard for Dornbush to get on the podium in Russia, but predictions haven't been going very smoothly this season. He might surprise us like Machida.

If Abbott can keep it together, he should definitely knock Amodio out of the top spot. Even if Amodio wins, he'd have 24 points. Wouldn't Hanyu and Takahashi still make the GPF if they win silver and gold (in w/e order) at NHK? It's going to be difficult though with Fernandez there.

I think Oda's CoR placement is going to be just as important as Amodio's TEB placement. If Oda miraculously wins CoR (26 points) doesn't he knock out Hanyu or Takahashi automatically b/c his win > Hanyu/Takahashi's 2nd place finish when they end up with the same point total?

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

If Hanyu and Takahashi win the top two spots at NHK, both are in. However, there is definitely the feeling that Fernandez might play spoiler. If Amodio wins TEB, things get very interesting at NHK.

 

[Becki]

If Hanyu and Takahashi win the top two spots at NHK, both are in. However, there is definitely the feeling that Fernandez might play spoiler. If Amodio wins TEB, things get very interesting at NHK.

If Fernandez wins, he'll probably never be invited to NHK again.