Men OGM Contenders 2018
- Thread starter mrfarmer
- Start date
- Joined
- Feb 24, 2012
My guess is that the top contenders include:
Yuzuru Hanyu - defending olympic champion, performs fairly consistently well while adding the big jumps, is the reigning world champion,, competitive, talented, has the jumps and the performance qualities and most important the judges love him.
Shomo Uno - rising and challenging Hanyu. Gold is a strong possibility. He has the jumps and charm Not as refined as Hanyu but a watcher for show.
Javier Fernandez - charm and personality but he has to land all his quads to compete with the Japanese
Boyang Jin - exciting, big jumps but vulnerable. Not the best skating skills but if he lands his quads and it is a quad game you just never know.
Nathan Chen - The american star has the jumps and if on could soar to the top of the podium but will need some help from those with stronger pcs ie Hanyu. Big amazing jump.
Patrick Chan - really not much of a contender any more but if he skates clean deserves to beat Javier so he could shock people. His pcs are no longer so favored orthere is little room to differentiate him from the rest of the pack. needs to skate clean and hope others make errors. Kind of a faded glory, a skater form the past but hte sentimental favourite at this stage of his life.
The Pretenders.
Denis Ten - has fallen oflate and really does not have the ammunition. He has been lucky in the past squeaking out medals at big events. Has not show much greatness lately
Jason Brown - probably shouldn't be on this list if we were fair but life isn't fair. While he has great skating skills he is no Patrick C han and his jumps remiss to say the least without a real quad let alone an arsenal of quads. Is loved by the judges and Americans and with pressure maybe could sneak on the podium.
Yuzuru Hanyu - defending olympic champion, performs fairly consistently well while adding the big jumps, is the reigning world champion,, competitive, talented, has the jumps and the performance qualities and most important the judges love him.
Shomo Uno - rising and challenging Hanyu. Gold is a strong possibility. He has the jumps and charm Not as refined as Hanyu but a watcher for show.
Javier Fernandez - charm and personality but he has to land all his quads to compete with the Japanese
Boyang Jin - exciting, big jumps but vulnerable. Not the best skating skills but if he lands his quads and it is a quad game you just never know.
Nathan Chen - The american star has the jumps and if on could soar to the top of the podium but will need some help from those with stronger pcs ie Hanyu. Big amazing jump.
Patrick Chan - really not much of a contender any more but if he skates clean deserves to beat Javier so he could shock people. His pcs are no longer so favored orthere is little room to differentiate him from the rest of the pack. needs to skate clean and hope others make errors. Kind of a faded glory, a skater form the past but hte sentimental favourite at this stage of his life.
The Pretenders.
Denis Ten - has fallen oflate and really does not have the ammunition. He has been lucky in the past squeaking out medals at big events. Has not show much greatness lately
Jason Brown - probably shouldn't be on this list if we were fair but life isn't fair. While he has great skating skills he is no Patrick C han and his jumps remiss to say the least without a real quad let alone an arsenal of quads. Is loved by the judges and Americans and with pressure maybe could sneak on the podium.
I would like whoever wins the OGM to be the man carrying the sport into the future the next few years, much like how Hanyu has the last few years since his OGM win. Whether he will do it again or one of the other younger skaters, may the best man for the future wins.
- Joined
- Feb 4, 2012
Basically I agree with you. Just yesterday I watched Javier's program from the 2010 Olympics (he's been on the scene for a long time) and British Eurosport predicted great things to come. I've learned to appreciate Patrick much more now that he's not dominating anymore. Perhaps because Takahashi retired, and I don't have the clear preference that made me blind to his strengths and focus on his weaknesses. Out of both of them, Javier doesn't have a medal, so if I had to choose, I would choose Javier winning the Gold. That would be a real story, what a moment, an end to a career that was second to none.
Yuzuru Hanyu in 2017 (and presumably 2018) is so, so much better than the Yuzuru Hanyu that won the OGM in Sochi. And if he delivers, he's the best and should get that gold. I totally get however, what you say. He has his Gold. Nobody can take that away. There can only be one Gold medalist. Although I preferred Yuna to Adelina in 2014 I don't think the result was as outrageous as many made it out to be. If you have the title of Olympic Gold Medalist....do you need another? Of course, you're a sportsman and you deserve it, but there is only one Gold every four years and people need to eat after their career is over. It wouldn't be so bad for Yuzuru to lose out this time. Like I said, he's so much better this time around, but his competition is, too.
Shoma, Nathan and Boyang can battle it out in 2022 you say. This is something I don't believe. I don't believe they will all be there in 2022, or I don't think they will be the top dogs in 2022. That's 5 years from now. I think all three of them have their chance next year. Yuzuru was 19 in Sochi. The focus on quadruple jumps favours the young.
The salt - everywhere - if anyone but Yuzuru wins is going to be unbearable. That's the nature of the game and not only the case for Nathan.
- Joined
- Jan 10, 2017
I think that would depend on how he loses, if that happens. If he goes clean and still loses, I could maybe understand people being salty. But that would depend on what kind of BV the one he lost to would have comparatively. A totally clean 4/5-quad Yuzu might very well still lose to a 7-landed-quad Nathan; the BV on that alone would be staggering! :eeking: But if he (relatively) bombs himself out of the OGM then there'd be no one to blame but himself. Not that that would stop vocal people from being salty but at least then there wouldn't be much of a leg to stand on in term of controversies. But I'm maybe too naive here.
I honestly don't know how anything will shake up next season. It's too soon to make any predictions. There are plenty of game changers that can happen in the men division, if people actually add all these rumored new quads for the Olympic year: We have the Russian men all going crazy with the 4Lz/4F, we have Junior men coming into seniors with multiple quad offerings, we have the knowledge that Shoma and Yuzu have been dabbling on the 4Lz and Javi on the 4Lo, we know Patrick is bringing a 4S for the SP and there's even mention of 4F (but I think that may be more wishful thinking than actual possibility?), Boyang will bring the 4Lo and Nathan might too, and go for that Worlds layout plus the 7th quad (that's 122+ BV, people!).
It's scary to think about sometimes.
It's also scary to think that if people do bring all of this to the Olympics, we might as well have Sochi 2.0.
I really want Patrick to win though I am doubtful. If I have to predict, Yuzu would get my vote. Above all I want to watch this competition and see the skaters skate well and the judges mark accordingly. It should be an amazing night if they do - what a crop of fantastic skaters there are at the moment with very different things to offer.
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2012
hello there, 'Silver Foxes' appreciation team!
LOLI very much understand and agree with your reasoning, it would be really nice to see Javier or Patrick to win OGM as a pinnacle of their competitive careers before retiring. And there goes of course history made for Spain by Javier.
It sure will be exciting to see how season unfolds in Men's field.
And SO TRUE about Nathan comment bolded - I'd be thrilled if he wins as a Pole too
, but this forum's reaction though...it would be unbearable in the same level is Shoma will win, believe me.
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2012
hello mrfarmer
, thank you a lot for your kind words, it's just the way I feel about them, each being an amazing, inspiring athlete on their own for me. And I am really bad like estimating their chances in a cool, calculated way. I wish just for a good, strong competition and that everyone will deliver their best possible. And everyone being healthy. And a bigger podium to fit more that 3 guys
- Joined
- Feb 4, 2012
hello mrfarmer
The Gold is always shining so brightly, but I think getting a Silver or a Bronze at the Olympic Games is also a dream come true. Perhaps the only skater who would be disappointed by Silver or Bronze is Yuzuru at this point. The unfortunate ones are the ones that are out of podium. Would be nice to have something similar to Worlds, with Javier and Patrick winning small medals in the SP. Spread the wealth a bit!
I won't be salty if either Shoma, Nathan or Boyang will win that's for sure. I do think the guys will bring it technically, but the Olympic stage... it's always perilous. I'm pretty sure the one who'll skate the least amount of mistakes will win. This is where the skate order becomes crucial.
- Joined
- Jan 10, 2017
And the GP circuit before it. That will be crucial in a lot of ways, for the men, the ladies and the other divisions.
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- Jan 25, 2013
I would love it if Patrick wins it would make a good story - the end of Canadian curse (!) and the proof that there is more to FS than 6 quads in LP... But I know it is unlikely... sigh.. In my wildest dreams I'd love Mika (Kolyada) to win a medal but this is even less likely. Anyway I think with the crazy tech content they are doing, staying injury free is the biggest question for next 8 months for these guys
Precisely.
Errant thought: How great would it be if Meds and Yuzu skipped the GP season and only skate at Nationals then skate to Olympic gold? Uh, that would be a dream. Drama!
I really want everyone to do their best and skate clean and also I'd like to see the judges scoring everyone accordingly. Just let everyone be healthy and let this event not be a complete splat-fest.
Patrick winning would be a wonderful thing, though I'm convinced that he can only get the gold in team event. My dream podium would be Yuzuru, Javier and Patrick and I doubt that anyone who isn't in top 6 will get a medal. Yuzuru - if he can handle the pressure (I believe he can) and goes clean then I'm sure he's unbeatable. And I really, really want to see him win the gold with two amazing performances. Javier is always a threat and if skates two clean, great performances he might get the gold. Let him get an Olympic Medal. Patrick - I feel like the rest of guys would have to screw their jumps and Patrick would have to go clean with a skate of his life, but everything is possible. Nathan/Shoma -I do not see one of them winning over clean Yuzuru/Javier. On the other hand if they fail and Nathan or Shoma go clean then there would be probably no reason to whine about it. Boyang, if his PCS is improved then he can also snatch the gold, but again not with clean Yuzuru or Javier, I think.
Also hello to everyone
Patrick winning would be a wonderful thing, though I'm convinced that he can only get the gold in team event. My dream podium would be Yuzuru, Javier and Patrick and I doubt that anyone who isn't in top 6 will get a medal. Yuzuru - if he can handle the pressure (I believe he can) and goes clean then I'm sure he's unbeatable. And I really, really want to see him win the gold with two amazing performances. Javier is always a threat and if skates two clean, great performances he might get the gold. Let him get an Olympic Medal. Patrick - I feel like the rest of guys would have to screw their jumps and Patrick would have to go clean with a skate of his life, but everything is possible. Nathan/Shoma -I do not see one of them winning over clean Yuzuru/Javier. On the other hand if they fail and Nathan or Shoma go clean then there would be probably no reason to whine about it. Boyang, if his PCS is improved then he can also snatch the gold, but again not with clean Yuzuru or Javier, I think.
Also hello to everyone
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2012
I really want everyone to do their best and skate clean and also I'd like to see the judges scoring everyone accordingly. Just let everyone be healthy and let this event not be a complete splat-fest.
Patrick winning would be a wonderful thing, though I'm convinced that he can only get the gold in team event. My dream podium would be Yuzuru, Javier and Patrick and I doubt that anyone who isn't in top 6 will get a medal. Yuzuru - if he can handle the pressure (I believe he can) and goes clean then I'm sure he's unbeatable. And I really, really want to see him win the gold with two amazing performances. Javier is always a threat and if skates two clean, great performances he might get the gold. Let him get an Olympic Medal. Patrick - I feel like the rest of guys would have to screw their jumps and Patrick would have to go clean with a skate of his life, but everything is possible. Nathan/Shoma -I do not see one of them winning over clean Yuzuru/Javier. On the other hand if they fail and Nathan or Shoma go clean then there would be probably no reason to whine about it. Boyang, if his PCS is improved then he can also snatch the gold, but again not with clean Yuzuru or Javier, I think.
Also hello to everyone
Welcome to Golden Skate. Post often!
I, too, wish everyone the best, the top 6 and the top 10 and the top 30. :luv17:
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2012
I think you touched an important point there, Tutto - the stakes are very high, the load of nerves and pressure experienced by those guys is immense, the bar went so high technically, so the expectations. Therefore, it's a bit of having this balance on place between this technical race and 'a bit of a bid' (LOL) who'll give more and maintaining nerves from steel. The thing is that this spiral of quads and having more and more challenging technical content is caused by both skaters and judges, but nerve-wracking pressure is experienced only by skaters themselves. there can be willingness to do multiple quads, there can be an ability in place to do them, to plan them on paper, but reality and competition itself are completely different perspectives to fulfil all of those hopes.
This balancing between constant technical bar rising individually and collectively for discipline in general and pressure not only of delivering all aforesaid, but being considered as a top skater/having titles, requires quite a skill and makes a room for different scenarios. And there's of course a risk of 'chewing on more than you will be able to swallow' thing or 'bidding big, losing big' thing...
- Joined
- Jan 10, 2017
I do think pressure will be felt differently, depending on who we're talking. I think of the younger guys, Nathan will have the most pressure, being the sole hope of the USA for an OGM at the Olympics (outside of the Team event); he will come into the Olympics with a lot more weight on his shoulders than he did this past season, exactly because of the way he basically exploded through the FS grapevine. I do think he is perfectly capable of handling pressure, but it will be different this coming season for him compared to last season, by a lot.
On the other hand, Shoma and Boyang won't be feeling that same pressure, though it depends on whether any of them win GPF and/or, in Shoma's case, Nationals against Yuzu. In that case, things will change in terms of pressure for him.
Of the veterans, Yuzuru comes with the most pressure, being both defending Olympic and World Champion. He also seems to be the one who wants it the most. But Yuzuru's reaction to pressure varies a lot; he can thrive on it or he can crumble, and it's hard to say which side will win in the end. I think it'll depend on how pissed he is at the time, to be honest. Someone might need to break one of his records.
Javi has never had much pressure; he's the eternal 2-time World Champion underdog. But it's different this Olympics, because it's very likely his last, even if he doesn't retire after it. He wants the OGM too, but after watching his recent interview with Plushenko, I'm not sure if he wants it quite enough. I think he'll be very content to medal and he is ambitious enough to be considering the 4Lo for Olympic season in order to secure that medal.
Patrick is coming to it with a lot less pressure than he had in 2014 but I think he may believe more in the Team Event OGM chances than in the individual. However a Patrick with a 2-quad SP and 3-quad FS will still be extremely competitive, much like Javi was last season against the 4-6 quads kids (where he almost won Worlds) but it'll depend a lot on TES and whether or not the higher BV skaters manage to skate their programs cleanly.
All the other kids adding quads to their technical arsenal will have absolutely no pressure except for National pride, so they can risk a lot on the Olympic stage.
- Joined
- Feb 4, 2012
We have three former World Champions, Yuzuru (2), Javier (2) and Patrick (3) at these Olympic Games. They should have nerves of steel. Only they don't. They are human, and all three of them still can get intimidated. Javier even said it played a part at this Worlds, after 10 years on the senior scene - hearing Yuzuru's scores, hearing Shoma's scores. How often did we see these three guys in a positions, where it was impossible to fathom they could lose - and then they did. Or they didn't take chances. I think being Number 1 after the short and skating last is going to be the very hardest position, and only the one with the steeliest mind can do it. It might really come down to skating order, this time.
- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
At 4CC I thought so too, but at Worlds where he was a clear medal contender it was obvious the pressure got to Nathan so I am not so sure.
BUT how much was nerves and how much was boot problems? We may never know since the boot problems probably added to his nerves.
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