First of all, a big
HI! to Twinny, Show, Lad, Doris, Joe, Bronzey, Mzheng, Excidra, Mathman, GrGranny, Eltamina, and all those I'm sure I missed. You are reading my very first post on my new (well, newish) iBook using, da da da daaah! Mac OSX or
Jaguar! For kewl! Though frankly it does things that scare me, I don't want to get off this most unique topic
Here's what I think about Michelle and the 3/3: I hope she does not try to do one. I have not a molecule of doubt that she could do one, but here's my reason, or I should say reasons, why I hope she sticks to 3/2s -- the hip injuries and/or surgeries of:
Tara Lipinski
Jennifer Kirk
Naomi Nari Nam
Deanna Stellato
Rudi Galindo
Alexei Yagudin...
and the hips just keep on comin'.
Although my tone is facetious, I'm dead serious. I strongly believe that the seemingly exponential increase in hip injuries among elite skaters is due to the increase in demande for 3/3s, 4/3s, 4/3/2s, and so on. I don't have any stats, but golly, were ANY young elite skaters having such hip problems ten years ago pre 3/3s for the ladies and 4/3s for the men? Not that I can recall and certainly not in these numbers. And these are just the skaters we know about.
Now if skaters were able to use the hinged skate boot, which according to researchers with the American College of Sports Medicine, should spread out the landing forces of the jump more evenly throughout the ankle, knee, hip, and lower back without so much force and torque focused on the hip. However I still think certain jump combos, like 3lp/3lp are going to be killer on that take-off/landing hip no matter what kind of high-tech skate they come up with.
Last season I heard that Michelle started practicing her 3t/3t but she started having hip pain and thus stopped -- wisely, IMO. Although I agree with Mathman that the COP might make 3/3s more necessary to win, my hope is that the judges will be intelligent enough to give full and duly noted points for all the other elements in the COP if they are performed extraordinarily well, which I think Michelle did last season across the board. (Hmm, "judges" and "intelligent" -- oxymoron?) I think of comparing a Michelle LP with six or seven exquisitely executed jumps consisting of 3s and 3/2s along with the high quality and graceful footwork, speed, ice coverage, musicality, edges, overall balance of the choreography, and on and on to an Elena Sokolova program with two 3/3s and three other 3s that have only mediocre to okay execution levels and a list of other elements that may reach the good but not great level.
Judge Rgirl gives the win to Michelle over Elena in that situation because in short, I don't think one or even two 3/3s in the midst of a program that is several notches below a Michelle program without a 3/3 should win, assuming Michelle's choreography, skating, and performance are up to what they were last year. To me, especially if Michelle goes even further in the direction she started perfecting last season, the whole is so much greater than the sum of its parts that I feel the judges should use the COP to reward that over a two 3/3 program where the whole is less than the sum of its parts.
If Irina is hungry this season and is able to put her heart and soul into a well choreographed program plus hit a 3/3, then I can see her being a possible challenge to Michelle. But as much as I love Irina's skating when she's got the fires burning and her technique in order, I just have a gut feeling that since her mother's illness Irina's spirit is going more in the direction of heart and home, which is perfectly understandable, IMO.
As for what improvements the other ladies will show up with, well, just as every year we ask "What about Michelle and the 3/3?" we also say every year, "The ladies from (fill in country) are really hot this year!" or "This is going to be so-and-so's breakthrough year!" And true, some year it will be some skater's breakthrough year. After all, Michelle has had several breakthrough years and Sokolova had a breakthrough year about five years after she was considered out of the game. OTOH, Sokolova's performance at '03 Worlds, and possibly Russian Nats (I can't recall) was really the only international competition at which she skated that well. Not a thing against Cupcake, since she could easily build on that momentum, but the point is, except for Elena, nobody else consistently delivered their top stuff. Sasha had a great GPF and some much improved from '02 GP events; Fumie had great parts of her SP and LP, just not all at the same event; Kostner had an impressive Euros but didn't have another good competition all season; AP is a mystery because of the domino effect of missing Cup of Russia; Jenny's hip is a problem; and the list goes on and I know I've left people out that are of the calibre for people to say, "Rgirl! How could you have left out (fill in name)?!"
Do I want even stronger choreography and performances from Michelle this year? Of course. Do I think they must include a 3/3 to be not only stronger but World Champ level best? No. I do not think Michelle needs a 3/3 to win Nationals, Worlds, or anything else she enters. I think every other aspect of her skating is now truly so superior to everyone else's that as I said before, the totality of what she does more than makes up for the lack of a 3/3. Things may change if some of the other ladies up the ante on not only the 3/3s but also on everything else, but my feeling is that Michelle is still on an upward trajectory with her skating, which I think means that at least for this season, everyone else will be chasing her.
About a month to go and THEY'RE OFF!
Rgirl -- that's 5395 characters long -- that's characters, not words
