- Joined
- Jul 26, 2003
brad640 said:
Yeah, but the only thing she could have really done was change 2 of her spins to level 2. Everything else is just subjective. I mean outside the spins, it's not like Cohen's SP was much more code-friendly on paper.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
Sure, why not? Every little bit helps. In the LP Irina beat Michelle by 2.3 points total in her non-jump elements (4 spins, spiral and footwork), 17.2 to 14.9.
Sasha beat Michelle by 1.5 points, 16.4 to 14.9.
If Michelle had had those extra points she would have lost to Irina by only 20 points instead of 22, and to Sasha by only 13 instead of 14.
But the point I'm trying to make is that, as nice as that would have been for Michelle, standing up on her Salchow would have been even better.
Mathman
Sasha beat Michelle by 1.5 points, 16.4 to 14.9.
If Michelle had had those extra points she would have lost to Irina by only 20 points instead of 22, and to Sasha by only 13 instead of 14.
But the point I'm trying to make is that, as nice as that would have been for Michelle, standing up on her Salchow would have been even better.
Mathman
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- Joined
- Dec 8, 2004
Mathman and VIETgrl, I still do not agree that Michelle can get by without improving her spins.
Base + GOE = Score
SP
Irina
Level 2 flying camel 2.3 +.5 = 2.3 +.5 = 2.80
Level 3 layback 2.4 + .86 = 3.26
Level 1 change foot combo 2.5 - .51 = 1.99
Total 8.05
Sasha
Level 2 flying camel 2.3 +.29 = 2.59
Level 2 layback 1.6 + .71 = 2.31
Level 2 change foot combo 3.00 + 1.0 = 4
Total 8.9
Michelle
Level 1 flying sit 2.00 -.04 = 1.96
Level 2 change foot combo 3.00 +.05 =3.5
Level 1 layback 1.2 +.36 =1.56
Total 7.02
LP
Irina
Level 2 flying camel 2.3 +.5 = 2.8
Level 3 layback 2.4 + .86 = 3.26
Level 3 combo 3.0 + .29 = 3.29
Level 2 change foot combo 3.0 + .79 = 3.79
Total 13.14
Sasha
Level 3 flying combo 3.0 + .43 = 3.43
Level 2 layback 1.6 + .86 = 2.46
Level 2 flying sit 2.3 + .36 = 2.66
Level 2 change foot combo 3.0 + 1.0 = 4.0
Total 12.55
Michelle
Level 1 flying sit 2.0 + 0 = 2.0
Level 1 camel 1.2 + .7 = 1.27
Level 2 flying combo 2.5 + .43 = 2.93
Level 2 change foot combo 3.0 + .21 = 3.21
Total 9.41
Spin Totals SP + LP
Irina 8.05 + 13.14 = 21.09
Sasha 8.9 + 12.55 = 21.45
Michelle 7.02 + 9.41 = 16.43
Michelle was about 4.5 behind Irina and about 5 behind Sasha. The base mark of a 3s is 4.5, so Irina and Sasha are gaining the value of an extra jumping pass over Michelle through the spins.
VIETgrl’s point about the QR not mattering is well taken, and there will not be a QR at the Olympics, so disregarding the QR:
Overall Total SP + LP
Irina 62.84 + 130.10 = 192.94
Sasha 61.37 + 124.61 = 185.98
Michelle 61.22 + 113.98 = 175.2
Overall, Michelle is a little more than 10 points behind Sasha and almost 18 points behind Irina. Irina’s number is very high, and it is not likely that she will have another performance like she did at worlds, but I do not think Michelle can afford to give away 4-5 points in the spins over the course of a competition.
I think Michelle is capable of gaining points in her spins and still maintaining the jumps as well as her spirals and steps, which are pretty close to Irina and Sasha already. I think it is very important for her to maximize these points on the objective side of CoP, because the PCS are very unpredictable and controversial. Still, ideally if Michelle added difficulty in her spins, that would also be reflected in the PCS under Skating Skills and Performance/Execution.
Note: While I consider the technical marks of CoP objective, there are still inconsistencies. Most notably in the spins analysis, Irina received level 3 for her laybacks, presumably because she does a Bielman on the end. I do not consider the Bielman to be a layback position, but others may disagree. Could Michelle add a sit spin on the end of her layback to get it up to level 2? I doubt it. Many people have complained about all the points Irina has gotten this season for the Bielman, and I think this is the worst example of those points being undeserved and unfair according to the rules. I hope this problem will be corrected by the Olympics.
I understand the point you are making, and I do agree with part of your analysis. I think you are saying that Michelle has added the jump elements she needs to be competitive (3 jump combination, 2nd 3f), and if she lands everything she will be in the running for at least a bronze. However I feel that her mediocre spins are costing her more than you say. So, looking only at the spins in the LP and SP:Mathman said:
Base + GOE = Score
SP
Irina
Level 2 flying camel 2.3 +.5 = 2.3 +.5 = 2.80
Level 3 layback 2.4 + .86 = 3.26
Level 1 change foot combo 2.5 - .51 = 1.99
Total 8.05
Sasha
Level 2 flying camel 2.3 +.29 = 2.59
Level 2 layback 1.6 + .71 = 2.31
Level 2 change foot combo 3.00 + 1.0 = 4
Total 8.9
Michelle
Level 1 flying sit 2.00 -.04 = 1.96
Level 2 change foot combo 3.00 +.05 =3.5
Level 1 layback 1.2 +.36 =1.56
Total 7.02
LP
Irina
Level 2 flying camel 2.3 +.5 = 2.8
Level 3 layback 2.4 + .86 = 3.26
Level 3 combo 3.0 + .29 = 3.29
Level 2 change foot combo 3.0 + .79 = 3.79
Total 13.14
Sasha
Level 3 flying combo 3.0 + .43 = 3.43
Level 2 layback 1.6 + .86 = 2.46
Level 2 flying sit 2.3 + .36 = 2.66
Level 2 change foot combo 3.0 + 1.0 = 4.0
Total 12.55
Michelle
Level 1 flying sit 2.0 + 0 = 2.0
Level 1 camel 1.2 + .7 = 1.27
Level 2 flying combo 2.5 + .43 = 2.93
Level 2 change foot combo 3.0 + .21 = 3.21
Total 9.41
Spin Totals SP + LP
Irina 8.05 + 13.14 = 21.09
Sasha 8.9 + 12.55 = 21.45
Michelle 7.02 + 9.41 = 16.43
Michelle was about 4.5 behind Irina and about 5 behind Sasha. The base mark of a 3s is 4.5, so Irina and Sasha are gaining the value of an extra jumping pass over Michelle through the spins.
VIETgrl’s point about the QR not mattering is well taken, and there will not be a QR at the Olympics, so disregarding the QR:
Overall Total SP + LP
Irina 62.84 + 130.10 = 192.94
Sasha 61.37 + 124.61 = 185.98
Michelle 61.22 + 113.98 = 175.2
Overall, Michelle is a little more than 10 points behind Sasha and almost 18 points behind Irina. Irina’s number is very high, and it is not likely that she will have another performance like she did at worlds, but I do not think Michelle can afford to give away 4-5 points in the spins over the course of a competition.
I think Michelle is capable of gaining points in her spins and still maintaining the jumps as well as her spirals and steps, which are pretty close to Irina and Sasha already. I think it is very important for her to maximize these points on the objective side of CoP, because the PCS are very unpredictable and controversial. Still, ideally if Michelle added difficulty in her spins, that would also be reflected in the PCS under Skating Skills and Performance/Execution.
Note: While I consider the technical marks of CoP objective, there are still inconsistencies. Most notably in the spins analysis, Irina received level 3 for her laybacks, presumably because she does a Bielman on the end. I do not consider the Bielman to be a layback position, but others may disagree. Could Michelle add a sit spin on the end of her layback to get it up to level 2? I doubt it. Many people have complained about all the points Irina has gotten this season for the Bielman, and I think this is the worst example of those points being undeserved and unfair according to the rules. I hope this problem will be corrected by the Olympics.
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- Joined
- Jul 26, 2003
But she didn't need 4 points to make the podium. She needed less than one point, which she could have made up by upgrades on two spins, as your analysis shows.Mathman said:
And working CoP is not just the levels. It's the GOE on each individual element, not just the general impression of "good spins," "okay spins," "great spins." She lost GOE points as well.
Her quali round last year was worse, much more lethargic, and her edges were very shallow. (She later said that the ice was too hard -- as did other Ladies -- and that she didn't get a chance to test it out before the warm-up.) There were two skaters, Poykio and Volchkova, who were superior in Kwan's group, and, arguably, so was Kostner.
Last year Kwan was the returning World Champion.attyfan said:
No one was forcing the judges to hold anyone up, including Kwan and Slutskaya, who deserved no higher than 8th, but got 5th. No one was holding a gun to the judges' heads to put Ando in 4th, despite a sluggish performance in the LP, or to place Kostner in 5th, up one spot, after she landed a 3/3/2 in the LP and little more cleanly.
Yes, the judges can use PCS to hold up skaters, including Kwan, which I think they did in the quali round. However the extent to which they can do so is limited, unlike in 6.0 when they can give a relatively poor technical performance a 5.6/5.9 to beat a 5.7/5.8 skate, even though there is a big technical gap between the 5.7 tech skater and the 5.6 tech skater. In CoP, that .1 in 6.0 can translate into, for example, an 8 point difference. if skater A scores 8 points less in tech than skater B, rating Skater B 1 point higher in each component score (to make up the gap with a 1.6 factor) is glaring, particularly if the two skaters are in the same league in presentation, and the averages between the top skaters different by no more than .5.
- Joined
- Jul 30, 2003
I apologize if my post seemed angry. That was not the intention and I was not angry when I wrote it. "Whine" was not the most diplomatic word to use. But if you look at what I wrote I agreed with some of what you said and I appreciate a lot of the insightful posts you have made around here. I did at no point state your opinion was nonsense or garbage. However, I am not one to sugar coat my words. You did state your opinion quite strongly, and, as VIETgrl stated, strong opinions draw strong responses.SkateFan4Life said:
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hockeyfan228 said:
I believe that's exactly what Kwan aimed for in her planned elements. She diddn't put in those unrefined high level spins (in her standard, mean well centered with good speed, refined entry and exit) in her program, rather lower level spins she can do very well. See where lead her? Her well centered fly sit spin in SP earned her lower GoE than Carol's terribly traveled layback spin. Not to mention Irina's traveled spin earn her +1/+2 GoE from some judges.
Now I think she learned her lesson, 'a level 3 spin is a level 3, no matter how you do it'. Hopefully if she wants to win next year, just put those level 2 or 3 spin in her program no matter how sloppy or awkward she thought. The worlds is an CoP experience for her as she planned to.
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- Joined
- Jul 26, 2003
I never said that. I agree with you that it'd be in her best interest for her to improve as much as she can. But I disagree with the idea that Kwan went to Worlds totally unprepared and was killed by the COP, and that a even a clean MK would still have been 16 points away from Sasha.
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- Joined
- Jul 26, 2003
That travels with mandatory deductions -- including -3 for a recentered or badly botched combo spin -- weren't taken for spin GOE's made me want to scream. (Like the lack of deductions for telegraphs and flutzes.)mzheng said:
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
ITA, and even with your good suggestion to have separate judges for the PCS, we are still left with willy nilly GOEs. I don't think they are all biased. I think half of them are done without any regard to what a skater actually does. Much too busy those judges; just scribble something down.hockeyfan228 said:
Did Irina actually get plus 2s for the travelling spins? My theory of the Power of 3x3s is right on.
Joe
What strikes me as unfair is that Sasha and Irina get good GOE even with technical mistakes.
Sasha had a truly egregious flutz in her SP and a bad bobble on her spiral and did not get -GOE on either move.
Irina's Beillmann spins are Travelocity-worthy, get she gets +GOE on them, and she had two huge mistakes in her SP that were largely ignored.
I believe Kwan got undeserved lower PCS on her clean SP than both Sasha and Irina got on their flawed SPs simply because they were in the final SP group and Kwan was in the penultimate group. That is protocol judging of the worst kind.
Sasha had a truly egregious flutz in her SP and a bad bobble on her spiral and did not get -GOE on either move.
Irina's Beillmann spins are Travelocity-worthy, get she gets +GOE on them, and she had two huge mistakes in her SP that were largely ignored.
I believe Kwan got undeserved lower PCS on her clean SP than both Sasha and Irina got on their flawed SPs simply because they were in the final SP group and Kwan was in the penultimate group. That is protocol judging of the worst kind.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
The consensus on the CoP seems to be that the assigning of scores for technical elements is working out fine. These scores are predetermined and the only human intervention is on the part of the caller who must decide whether the element was actually completed or not.
Now come the judges. Their job is to give out points for GOE and Skating Components. That part -- the part that involves judging -- often seems as capricious as ever.
Still, by and large, I think the new system, like the old, more often than not gives the prize to the best skate. Irina did seven triples, including a triple-triple. Therefore the judges are pretty much obliged to give her high GOEs on her spins and high marks for choreography and interpretation. She just interpreted the heck out of that triple Lutz/triple loop!
Well, that's OK as long as all the skaters know what the real rules are and as long as the hidden rules are applied even-handedly to all skaters. If that's the way it is under the new judging system, OK, the public might be fooled, but what else is new?
Mathman
Now come the judges. Their job is to give out points for GOE and Skating Components. That part -- the part that involves judging -- often seems as capricious as ever.
Still, by and large, I think the new system, like the old, more often than not gives the prize to the best skate. Irina did seven triples, including a triple-triple. Therefore the judges are pretty much obliged to give her high GOEs on her spins and high marks for choreography and interpretation. She just interpreted the heck out of that triple Lutz/triple loop!
Well, that's OK as long as all the skaters know what the real rules are and as long as the hidden rules are applied even-handedly to all skaters. If that's the way it is under the new judging system, OK, the public might be fooled, but what else is new?
Mathman
VIETgrlTerifa said:
my animosity towards michell cause I don't agree with you about her performance at worlds? lol! wasn't kwan's quali skate with only three triples as awful as Irina's euro's lp? of course many posters didn't give her the benefit(tried to justify her win) of the doubt like they are giving michell fine. as for constructive crtiticism? how about no triple-triples,no coreo(in betweens)no gp series experience in front of international judges. I think I talked about that in other posts but maybe I'm wrong. This is the reason why so many people don't get into discussions about kwan. they don't want to be attack by her fans for having a different opinion bye
chuckm said:
I know that PCS and GoE scores were main areas Michelle lost the points to the ladies finished above her. I have complains of those GOEs, which suppose more objectively reflect the quality of excution of elements, but not in reality. As far as PCS scores goes, if indeed as you said Michelle got undeserved lower PCS than both Sasha and Irina got on their flawed SPs simply because she was not in the final SP group, then I have no complains about that, first it is more subjective anyway, second Michelle herself put her in that group by botched her qualify round. I kind of considering the relative higher PCS scores earned in last group is a reward to the skaters who skated well in first phase.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
How is this fair? If you skate well on Tuesday they should give you some extra undeserved points for your skate on Thursday? What is this, old-fashioned ordinal judging?mzheng said:
MM
PS. I have a question about the title of this thread. I went back and read the first post, but that did not help me. What is it that Michelle is being crowned as (prematurely or not)?
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Mathman said:How is this fair? If you skate well on Tuesday they should give you some extra undeserved points for your skate on Thursday? What is this, old-fashioned ordinal judging?
MM
PS. I have a question about the title of this thread. I went back and read the first post, but that did not help me. What is it that Michelle is being crowned as (prematurely or not)?
Then consider it was a rewarding to the over all consistancy up to that point at Thursday. lol. one way or other PCS is subjective anyway.
Prematurely the cheesefest? Since the thread started before cheesefest?
What's a real eye-opener is a comparison of Kwan's PCS scores vs. Elena Sokolova's scores. This shows the real impact of skating in the next-to-last group vs. the last group. Sokolova was the last skater in the final group, and let's face it---she has never been a 'presentation' star. Elena didn't have a clean SP (she double-footed the flip) and finished 6th in the SP behind Kostner and Arakawa.
[Size=-1]
7.50 7.75 7.00 7.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 6.75 7.50 7.50 7.75 7.75 SS-Kwan
7.00 7.00 7.00 7.50 7.50 7.50 8.00 7.50 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.50 SS-Sokolova
6.75 7.50 6.50 7.00 6.50 7.00 7.75 6.50 7.00 7.25 7.00 7.50 TR-Kwan
6.50 6.75 6.25 7.00 7.25 7.25 7.50 7.25 6.50 7.00 7.00 7.25 TR-Sokolova
7.00 7.50 7.00 7.50 7.00 7.25 8.00 6.75 7.50 7.25 7.50 7.50 P/E-Kwan
7.00 7.25 7.00 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.75 7.50 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.25 P/E-Sokolova
6.75 7.50 6.75 7.25 7.00 7.25 7.75 6.50 7.50 7.25 7.25 7.75 CH-Kwan
7.00 7.00 6.50 7.25 7.50 7.50 7.75 7.50 6.75 7.50 7.25 7.50 CH-Sokolova
6.75 7.75 7.25 7.50 7.25 7.50 8.00 6.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.75 IN-Kwan
7.00 7.00 7.00 7.25 7.25 7.50 7.75 7.50 7.00 7.50 7.25 7.50 IN-Sokolova
[/Size]
[Size=-1]
7.50 7.75 7.00 7.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 6.75 7.50 7.50 7.75 7.75 SS-Kwan
7.00 7.00 7.00 7.50 7.50 7.50 8.00 7.50 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.50 SS-Sokolova
6.75 7.50 6.50 7.00 6.50 7.00 7.75 6.50 7.00 7.25 7.00 7.50 TR-Kwan
6.50 6.75 6.25 7.00 7.25 7.25 7.50 7.25 6.50 7.00 7.00 7.25 TR-Sokolova
7.00 7.50 7.00 7.50 7.00 7.25 8.00 6.75 7.50 7.25 7.50 7.50 P/E-Kwan
7.00 7.25 7.00 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.75 7.50 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.25 P/E-Sokolova
6.75 7.50 6.75 7.25 7.00 7.25 7.75 6.50 7.50 7.25 7.25 7.75 CH-Kwan
7.00 7.00 6.50 7.25 7.50 7.50 7.75 7.50 6.75 7.50 7.25 7.50 CH-Sokolova
6.75 7.75 7.25 7.50 7.25 7.50 8.00 6.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.75 IN-Kwan
7.00 7.00 7.00 7.25 7.25 7.50 7.75 7.50 7.00 7.50 7.25 7.50 IN-Sokolova
[/Size]
Bottomline is...How is finishing 4th at your first COP competition equate to "being clobbered" by the new judging system? Well, if being totally unprepared for COP and doing nothing but "resting on her laurels" can get Kwan 4th place at the World Championships, imagine what next season will be like when she is prepared....I just hope the COP competition medalists better be clinging tightly to their podium steps, because the fall is going to be hard when the Kween is now more determined than ever to reach the top step. It's in the eyes....always look at the eyes. And what I see from the Kween's eyes were not dying embers, but a bright burning flame of steely determination.
Did I just totally overkilled the metaphors?
Did I just totally overkilled the metaphors?Similar threads
