Mid-Season Report: U.S. Ladies, R.D. Style

[janetfan]

But that was only the GP- I'm sure they'll get PLENTY of coverage come US Nats and particularly Olys.

Ok, I think you are right.

Does that mean we will also see alot of Evan?

Will they be hyping him like crazy and lead casual fans into thinking he is another Boitano? By that I mean Boitano was a clear co-favorite for the OGM and not so sure if the same could be said about Evan.

But he does appear to have the judges in his pocket so there is a chance he can medal.

I can't see NBC building a campaign around Rachael. Maybe they will hype up the battle bewtween the many Lady contenders......zzzzzzz

 

[R.D.]

I can't see NBC building a campaign around Rachael.

Actually, they might. they need SOMEONE to promote in ladies' skating- it just can't be the Yuna channel 24/7.

But if Cohen pushes her way onto the team I'd TOTALLY expect them to smother her with the attention she so desires...

 

[janetfan]

Actually, they might. they need SOMEONE to promote in ladies' skating- it just can't be the Yuna channel 24/7.

But if Cohen pushes her way onto the team I'd TOTALLY expect them to smother her with the attention she so desires...

You can't seem to make up your mind RD.

One post complains that Sasha is hiding and we don't see her enough.

Then your next post claims all she wants is the spotlight.

Can you clarify your thoughts on that for me?

 

[Mathman]

^ I can't speak for R.D., but I'm with Yoda on this one: "Skate or don't skate. There is no string everyone along for publicity's sake."

 

[PolymerBob]

This thread has certainly gotten longer since this morning.

I have no idea how the USFSA will pick the team, I just hope the judging is fair. If they start trying to guess how ISU judges would judge each individual skater, then each skater is skating to different rules. Then the results are meaningless.

The worst case is an extremely good skate getting held down, or a very poor skate getting held up. Remember, the audience will never boo a skater, but they will boo the judges. If that happens, there is a good chance there was jury rigging going on.

 

[R.D.]

You can't seem to make up your mind RD.

One post complains that Sasha is hiding and we don't see her enough.

Then your next post claims all she wants is the spotlight.

Can you clarify your thoughts on that for me?

I can answer in a single sentence:

Put up or shut up. :yes:

ETA: Actually, your first point- you are misunderstanding me. My point was simply that she does not have much of a basis for being put on the Oly team since she did not participate in the GP. It all rides on Nats, whereas for the other girls, if they have an off-night (not their best performance, but not a meltdown either) they may not be TOTALLY out of it given the right circumstances

 

[Layfan]

There's no way this year's national champion is getting bumped, even if it is Alissa or Mirai by less than a point, it's just not fair and could result in a lawsuit.

That being said, if Alissa or Mirai were to come in second, and Rachael or Ashley was in 3rd, I think it would be fair to bump either of them off the team and let Rachael or Ashley go due to their superior performances internationally.

So unless Alissa/Mirai finishes above Rachael/Ashley at nats but doesn't win, and Rachael/Ashley is third, I don't see any bumping happening. Caroline could be grouped with Alissa and Mirai although I doubt she'll be higher than 4th at nationals. Even Ashley in 3rd bumping Mirai or Alissa might be questionable, as the latter two have both been national champion, and Ashley hasn't even gone to senior worlds yet. Rachael should definitely bump the 2nd place finisher if she is 3rd though, especially if the situation is like last year and the placing is questionable.

That is a debatable premise. Superior performances internationally?

The GP series results stand as thus:

Wagner:
RC - 163.97
NHK - 155.99

Czisny:
RC - 158.30
SC - 163.53

Flatt:
COC - 157.71
SA - 174.91

So, Czisny outscored Wagner in the series. It just so happens that Wagner's lower score happened to be good enough for bronze, where as Czisny's was just good enough for fourth place. Just like Flatt's.

If Wagner finishes third at nationals should she get special treatment just because she made the GP final - even though Czisny and Flatt actually outscored her?

If this is the outcome at nationals:

1. Flatt
2. Czisny
3. Wagner

.... then I see absolutely no reason why it would be "fair" for Wagner to get special treatment.

If this is the outcome:

1. Wagner
2. Czisny
3. Flatt

.... then Flatt may have more of an argument for getting on the team, but I don't find it enormously compelling She was the highest scorer of the GP series and that's impressive. But she has not been totally consistent. And if she makes enough mistakes that she winds up third or fourth at nationals, it will only call into question her consistency further.

Of course, I don't think that will happen to Flatt. My surest bet for nationals is that Flatt will make the team. But not on the basis of past performances. She'll make the team because she is a great competitor, with two very nice and competitive programs, who will probably do well and be difficult to beat.

There is no U.S. lady who has a strong case for making the team without finishing at least second. Not even Flatt. And certainly not Wagner who has just as much a history of inconsistency as anyone else.

 

[janetfan]

That is a debatable premise. Superior performances internationally?

The GP series results stand as thus:

Wagner:
RC - 163.97
NHK - 155.99

Czisny:
RC - 158.30
SC - 163.53

Flatt:
COC - 157.71
SA - 174.91

So, Czisny outscored Wagner in the series. It just so happens that Wagner's lower score happened to be good enough for bronze, where as Czisny's was just good enough for fourth place. Just like Flatt's.

.

Very interesting and I have to agree that the Olympic spots are wide open.

Sasha may still have alot to do with this. Seeing how Yuna just won the GPF with 4 triples makes a stronger case than ever for Sasha as Yuna won because of her overall quality and not her jumps.

Sasha with 4 triples probably beats the US Ladies the same way Yuna beat the GPF Ladies - with superior quality and the abilty to perform and sell a program to the judges.

 

[silverlake22]

If Wagner finishes third at nationals should she get special treatment just because she made the GP final - even though Czisny and Flatt actually outscored her?

If this is the outcome at nationals:

1. Flatt
2. Czisny
3. Wagner

.... then I see absolutely no reason why it would be "fair" for Wagner to get special treatment.

If this is the outcome:

1. Wagner
2. Czisny
3. Flatt

.... then Flatt may have more of an argument for getting on the team, but I don't find it enormously compelling She was the highest scorer of the GP series and that's impressive. But she has not been totally consistent. And if she makes enough mistakes that she winds up third or fourth at nationals, it will only call into question her consistency further.
.

When I said the thing about Alissa/Mirai I meant more Mirai and only Alissa if she does a bad long. If the outcome is 1.) Flatt 2.) Czisny 3.) Wagner, then I agree Wagner should not get special treatment UNLESS she does a long program with 6 or 7 triples and Alissa does a long program with 3 and only beats Wagner because of huge inflated PCS. If Alissa comes in 2nd a does a program with 5 or 6 triples and wins fairly, then certainly she should go.

The whole issue with the GP is tough, because Ashley made the final and did well, it should help her, even though Alissa and Rachael outscored her. Also, internationally Alissa does not have a very good track record apart from the grand prix events - 9th at 4CC, 11th at Worlds (with a pretty good long too), 15th at worlds in 07. She's had the chance to go to worlds twice and blew it twice. Ashley blew her chance at worlds once, and Rachael did very well at Worlds despite not skating her best.

If the USFS wants Rachael on the Olympic team, which I assume they do, they'll have her be 1st or 2nd if she deserves it. For some reason I feel like the USFS just wanted Czisny to win last year, so they held her up and she did. Last year there wasn't really pressure though, this year there is, the results from last years worlds are known, the judges know how Alissa's freeskates have been mediocre and how great Rachael's freeskate at SA was. If they want to US to do well at the Olympics, they probably won't hold Rachael down and a less consistent skater up. If Mirai and Alissa do great at nationals though, I don't think the USFS should begrudge them a spot either

 

[Mathman]

Sasha with 4 triples probably beats the US Ladies the same way Yuna beat the GPF Ladies - with superior quality and the abilty to perform and sell a program to the judges.

Well, Kim's three triples included two triple Lutzes (one in combination) and a triple flip -- jumps that no one has seen Sasha do for three years. Plus two double Axels in combination. As for Yu-na's program components, true, she beat Ando (who also had four triples) -- by a score of 61.52 to 61.12.

If Sasha comes to Nationals planning 3Lo, 3S, 3T and a 3S seq (4 triples), I do not see how she will be competitive.no matter how pretty her spiral position is.

 

[janetfan]

Well, Kim's three triples included two triple Lutzes (one in combination) and a triple flip -- jumps that no one has seen Sasha do for three years. Plus two double Axels in combination. As for Yu-na's program components, true, she beat Ando (who also had four triples) -- by a score of 61.52 to 61.12.

If Sasha comes to Nationals planning 3Lo, 3S, 3T and a 3S seq (4 triples), I do not see how she will be competitive.no matter how pretty her spiral position is.

Was Yuna's 3L+2T so pretty? One of the double axles in combo was a 2A + 3T that had the 3T two footed and downgraded to a double.
We must have been watching a different competition
and her spirals are not as pretty, her laybacks are not as good, her back is not as straight, her toes are never pointed, ,,,,

How in the world do you think Sasha scored so well and won medals - because of her jumps?

Anyway this stuff should be at the Sasha thread

 

[Mathman]

Was Yuna's 3L+2T so pretty? One of the double axles in combo was a 2A + 3T that had the 3T two footed and downgraded to a double.
We must have been watching a different competition
and her spirals are not as pretty, her laybacks are not as good, her back is not as straight, her toes are never pointed, ,,,,

Who said anything about pretty? Yu-na's 3Lz+2T wasn't pretty at all (and it got 0 GOE to prove it). But it scored 7.30 points. Another 7.00 for her second Lutz, another 5.90 for her flip. That's a lot of toe-pointing for Sasha to make up, IMHO.

But yeah, we should be comparing Sasha with Rachael and Ashley on this thread. I'm sorry I brought up Kim.

 

[janetfan]

Who said anything about pretty? Yu-na's 3Lz+2T wasn't pretty at all (and it got 0 GOE to prove it). But it scored 7.30 points. Another 7.00 for her second Lutz, another 5.90 for her flip. That's a lot of toe-pointing for Sasha to make up, IMHO.

But yeah, we should be comparing Sasha with Rachael and Ashley on this thread. I'm sorry I brought up Kim.

I thought it was OK to bring up Yuna since she is the WC and measuring stick for all of the Ladies right now.

But I noticed alot of negative Sasha comments and thought it more fair to other posters to keep the Sasha bashing where it belongs - at the Sasha topic

 

[Mathman]

I guess what I am saying is this. Yes, there are qualities to Sasha's skating that can put her over the top in competition with less polished and accomplished skaters (i.e., just about everyone). But first she has to bring the technical content required to get into the game.

That's not bashing anyone, it's just the mathematics of the IJS. I do not believe that Sasha will chance competing at U.S. Nationals, against skaters like Flatt, Wagner and Nagasu, if she cannot bring a full technical arsenal.

 

[R.D.]

That is a debatable premise. Superior performances internationally?

The GP series results stand as thus:

Wagner:
RC - 163.97
NHK - 155.99

Czisny:
RC - 158.30
SC - 163.53

Flatt:
COC - 157.71
SA - 174.91

So, Czisny outscored Wagner in the series. It just so happens that Wagner's lower score happened to be good enough for bronze, where as Czisny's was just good enough for fourth place. Just like Flatt's.

If Wagner finishes third at nationals should she get special treatment just because she made the GP final - even though Czisny and Flatt actually outscored her?

If this is the outcome at nationals:

1. Flatt
2. Czisny
3. Wagner

.... then I see absolutely no reason why it would be "fair" for Wagner to get special treatment.

If this is the outcome:

1. Wagner
2. Czisny
3. Flatt

.... then Flatt may have more of an argument for getting on the team, but I don't find it enormously compelling She was the highest scorer of the GP series and that's impressive. But she has not been totally consistent. And if she makes enough mistakes that she winds up third or fourth at nationals, it will only call into question her consistency further.

Of course, I don't think that will happen to Flatt. My surest bet for nationals is that Flatt will make the team. But not on the basis of past performances. She'll make the team because she is a great competitor, with two very nice and competitive programs, who will probably do well and be difficult to beat.

There is no U.S. lady who has a strong case for making the team without finishing at least second. Not even Flatt. And certainly not Wagner who has just as much a history of inconsistency as anyone else.

Very interesting point...Thanks for the analysis. When total scores are looked at, rather than placements, it's actually much closer. HOWEVER- the pressure at Nationals will be much greater. I think a strong performance at Nationals by any contender should be weighed heavily- and if that contender also did well on the GP- well no question about it, send her. If she did well on the GP but bombed at Nats, well...maybe she shouldn't go (because how will you handle it at Olys??)

 

[R.D.]

I guess what I am saying is this. Yes, there are qualities to Sasha's skating that can put her over the top in competition with less polished and accomplished skaters (i.e., just about everyone). But first she has to bring the technical content required to get into the game.

That's not bashing anyone, it's just the mathematics of the IJS. I do not believe that Sasha will chance competing at U.S. Nationals, against skaters like Flatt, Wagner and Nagasu, if she cannot bring a full technical arsenal.

Absolutely right. But then again, I can't say that Czisny brought a whole lot of technical content to her FS last year and the National judges still put her above Zhang and Flatt who both landed everything...

ETA: I think it's better without Cohen because with her, you never know. I don't want a repeat of last year where they crown her the US champ with an uninspiring performance and then she goes to Oly and bombs. How would the third-place nats finisher feel??

 

[silverlake22]

Czisny should go ahead of Cohen. She does 2 3lutz in her LP and usually lands them. Alissa's lutz is her best jump! Her worst jump is the 3loop which isn't even worth that much.

Let's not worry about Sasha until she actually shows up at nationals ok? :agree:

I still want Mirai to win, she's such a toughie I love it. She looked so PO-ed when she found out Lepisto beat her at SC . Also I just watched TEB again and how in the world did Carolina Kostner get 4th in the long with that skate? She messed almost every jump up..... I guess the judges like to drink the European koolaid

 

[Layfan]

When I said the thing about Alissa/Mirai I meant more Mirai and only Alissa if she does a bad long. If the outcome is 1.) Flatt 2.) Czisny 3.) Wagner, then I agree Wagner should not get special treatment UNLESS she does a long program with 6 or 7 triples and Alissa does a long program with 3 and only beats Wagner because of huge inflated PCS. If Alissa comes in 2nd a does a program with 5 or 6 triples and wins fairly, then certainly she should go.

The whole issue with the GP is tough, because Ashley made the final and did well, it should help her, even though Alissa and Rachael outscored her. Also, internationally Alissa does not have a very good track record apart from the grand prix events - 9th at 4CC, 11th at Worlds (with a pretty good long too), 15th at worlds in 07. She's had the chance to go to worlds twice and blew it twice. Ashley blew her chance at worlds once, and Rachael did very well at Worlds despite not skating her best.

If the USFS wants Rachael on the Olympic team, which I assume they do, they'll have her be 1st or 2nd if she deserves it. For some reason I feel like the USFS just wanted Czisny to win last year, so they held her up and she did. Last year there wasn't really pressure though, this year there is, the results from last years worlds are known, the judges know how Alissa's freeskates have been mediocre and how great Rachael's freeskate at SA was. If they want to US to do well at the Olympics, they probably won't hold Rachael down and a less consistent skater up. If Mirai and Alissa do great at nationals though, I don't think the USFS should begrudge them a spot either

Glad you essentially agree with me. I certainly hope there will be no blatant holding up or holding down of anyone at nationals, and certainly not Flatt who has certainly proven herself and deserves to be taken seriously. If Joannie and Mao keep skating the way they have why shouldn't we think Flatt has a chance at a medal in Vancouver? I wouldn't count her out. Her SA scores would have won her the bronze at the GP final. (But still would have left her 5th at the 2008 worlds.)

 

[bekalc]

Glad you essentially agree with me. I certainly hope there will be no blatant holding up or holding down of anyone at nationals, and certainly not Flatt who has certainly proven herself and deserves to be taken seriously. If Joannie and Mao keep skating the way they have why shouldn't we think Flatt has a chance at a medal in Vancouver? I wouldn't count her out. Her SA scores would have won her the bronze at the GP final. (But still would have left her 5th at the 2008 worlds.)

ITA. To me Flatt has the momentum at Nationals even with Wagner's decent performance. Yes Flatt struggled a bit at Cup of China but her total score at Skate America was well over 10 points higher than anything the other US girls have managed to do. And yes with how shaky some are skating Rachael ABSOLUTELY has an outside shot at a medal.

And I really don't see Flatt being held back this time at all. Yes they held her back last year at Nationals but factors have changed. Her fifth place finish at Worlds, and her big score at Skate America is not going to be lost on the USFSA. (They aren't dumb and they've seen how the other top ladies are skating) I think the USFSA is going to get behind Rachael this time.

 

[R.D.]

Let's not worry about Sasha until she actually shows up at nationals ok? :agree:

Yeah. Good plan.

ETA: Not sure if I agree with Flatt having a shot at a medal. It would have to be a Sarah Hughes-like situation with almost all the favorites bombing and her doing even better than she did at SA. She was really far behind the medalists point-wise at 2009 worlds.