Very insightful analysis. Things have changed this year though, and though Alissa won nationals last year, I'm not sure if it was deserved or not. She got a 112 for the calliber of FS that would have gotten her a 100 internationally (which is what she has been getting internationally for her FS for the past two years or so).
Zhang and Nagasu BOTH had injuries last year, but while Mirai's seems to be better this year, Zhang's might still be an issue and the reason of her struggles.
Ashley also made the GPF this year and did well there, even though she was outscored by both Rachael and Alissa.
Alissa seems to have mastered the SP this season and only falters in the long. At high pressure events though (both worlds) she tends to falter in the short too. Worlds last year she didn't even have a lot of pressure, no one expected her to medal, but she must have been nervous being at such a big competition and messed up anyways.
(and the rest of the post)
Nice breakdown. It actually gives me another idea- a scenario where
ONLY THIS YEAR'S placements are taken into account. That is, only competitions that took place
in the year 2009 are looked at, with all prior results discarded- after all, what one could do a year or two ago, one may not be able to do now.
So, factoring in ONLY 2009 competitions, here's the lowdown. Note: fluff competitions and summer comps are
not counted, but GPs, Worlds and Nats are. The most significant accomplishments of each skater (if I could find one) are bolded.
Czisny: 1st Nats, 11th Worlds, 4th COR, 2nd SC
Zhang: 3rd Nats (IIRC), 2nd Junior worlds,
4th Four Continents, 4th TEB, disaster at SC (can't remember her placement)
Nagasu: 5th Nats, WD Junior worlds, 4th SC. Did COC but can't remember her placement of the top of my head
Wagner: 4th Nats, 3rd Junior worlds (IIRC), 2nd COR, 3rd NHK,
4th GPF
Flatt: 2nd Nats,
5th Worlds, 4th COC (IIRC), 2nd SA (beating Mighty Kim in the FS)
So- That's only placements. When performances are taken into account, it's a little more even here than in Scenario One. YMMV of course...Note that this is based primarily on SPECULATION, not so much on RAW DATA. (Haven't the time to gather and crunch it.) SO with that disclaimer out of the way, let's go:
Wagner obviously was the only American to qualify for the GPF. She said that she thinks it will give her an advantage. Is she right? Well, she demonstrated through the GP season that she is gaining consistency, and that works in her favor. However, she had a legit chance to win NHK Trophy, and couldn't capitalize when the opportunity presented itself in the FS. But later competitions hold more weight, and despite a weak SP, she pulled herself up from last in the GPF to 4th. However, compared to the other Americans, she is actually about on par with Czisny as far as scoring goes, and behind Flatt. So it should not be overlooked that she got into the Final through easier qualifying groups, not necessarily through domination (although it should be mentioned that she placed above top contenders who happened to bomb the particular competition- e.g. Asada at COR and Rochette at GPF). Flatt STILL has the advantage because of her high SA score. Even though her competitors scored higher in the SP, she scored 15+ points higher than what everyone else has been averaging. Still, that was at her very best, and if you throw in a mistake or two, probably puts her down closer to 105, 110 range which still beats everyone except maybe Wagner at her best. Zhang had a really strong 4CCs and TEB before really tanking at SC. What's not known is whether that was an anomaly and she'll come roaring back, or whether that's the beginning of the end. Nagasu has had sort of a "meh" year, dealing with injury, setback, and now hammered with UR calls on jumps.
So...Flatt still gets on the Oly team, but not convincingly. The rest fight it out for the second spot, with Czisny and Wagner susceptible to bad SPs
or FSs (but NOT both), Nagasu and Zhang steady in the balance. If Czisny has a knockout SP, she has a subpar FS/bombs it and her Oly chances are in jeopardy. If Wagner has a subpar SP and nails the FS, she could still be in it IF others fail. Zhang and Nagasu may not get the marks they need to really put the competition away and will always be on the bubble, even at their current best.
So who gets the second spot? You might be surprised...
(it really depends on the given night.) But in this case, LET'S SAY
for speculative reasons that Wagner gets it (a strong free program while others slip up), Nagasu is the alternate (good performance in the clutch, but UR calls bring her score down just enough to keep her off the team). Czisny takes a hit in one of the segments of the competition under "Reigning champ" pressure, and could either be in it or out of it, depending on how hard she bombs. She could be an alternate as well. Zhang recovers a little, but with SC still fresh in their heads, the judges hold her down enough to keep her from the top 2. Wagner has the edge over Czisny in this situation due to the results of Russia- Wagner got Silver while Alyssa finished 4th.
In a nutshell:
On The Team: Flatt, Wagner (barely)
Alternate: Nagasu OR Czisny
Contrast this with
Scenario One, where Wagner and Czisny didn't stand a chance. But Flatt gets on the team in both cases. Of course, in reality, the massive elephant in the room that I call- drum roll please- THE X-FACTOR comes into play. (For those unfamiliar with my terminology- it refers to the intangibles, such as bombing potential, conditions at the arena, personal situations that could potentially distract the competitors, pressure (internal and external), skating first or last, skating after a knockout performance or a horrible one, etc.)
If ONLY numbers and averages are considered (no other factors!), I'd be curious to see how it comes out.
