From the competitions he chose to compete, Russian Nationals - despite the long list of pointless enumerations Buttercup added, the fact is that's competition where the top guy from Russia could manage at the 2012 Worlds was a miserable 17th place. I cannot recall that Russia or the former USSR has ever done so poorly in this discipline. And the top ranked Russian guy on the GP circuit this season is a 12th place, with 6 Japanese men placing ahead of him, from a guy who wasn't even on the Russian world team last year. No matter how one wants to sugar coat the state of Russian man skating, it's indisputably in bad shape for a country of such glorious history in this sport. The only way Plushenko could lose the Russian Nationals against such a field is if he accidentally knock himself out by smashing into a board and start rolling on the ice.
My point is that the skaters at both Euros and Russian Nats have accomplished something in their careers, and basically calling them nobodys is insulting. Many of the skaters today are inconsistent and unpredictable; that doesn't mean they are bad skaters. So: which Gachi will show up at Nats, the Euros medalist or the one who blew it at Worlds? Recall that he was ahead of Plushenko after the SP at Euros. Will Menshov continue to surprise? At Euros, will we see Amodio and Joubert as they were at Worlds or as they were at TEB? Will we see skate Canada Javi or NHK Javi?
Not everything in skating is predictable, and while I fully expect Plushenko to win Nationals, I can see some of the other guys skating well enough to make things interesting. And again - they're not Yags and Abt, but once you get past some of the top Russian skaters of the past, the level wasn't always that high anyway: Lutai, Borodulin, etc. Other than Plush, the last Russian to medal at Euros before Gachinski did was Ilia Klimkin in 2004, and the only Russians to medal at Worlds all went on to win OGMs.
It's Nationals, and you don't skip Nationals without a compelling reason even if the level of competition isn't as high. Euros is nearby and offers a great opportunity to get points, minimum score, etc. JO isn't as physically demanding. When you're 30 year old and have had multiple surgeries, you have to pick and choose. Going to Worlds as the sole Russian could be a problem; what happens if he has health issues and needs to WD halfway through like in 2005? Russia wouldn't get a men's spot for the Olympics and would need to qualify one next fall. It may be strategic, sure: maybe he feels he's not in top form at the moment, in which case, taking on the best skaters in the world - one of them on home ice, we've all seen what that can mean for various Canadian skaters - would be a strategic mistake. Or maybe Plushenko and Mishin just haven't decided yet how they'll play the rest of the season. You are not privy to their reasoning for doing what they do, you are not familiar with all the issues related to Plushenko's health, and while it's fine to speculate regarding their decisions, that's all it is: speculation.
If Plushenko decides not to go to Worlds, I believe they have a plan set, if I knew a better plan I would be an Oly champion myself, and if he chooses not to compete against Chan, Hanyu and Daisuke right now I d say its a wise choise, half the game in competitions is based on hype and impressions. Im interested if he competes against Fernandez now. For now it is all a moo point because March is far away and we dont know if he goes yet and is irelevant to the thread.
Very true.