Mishin's opinion on components based on Jin

[Mathman]

One way to encourage a balance between TES and PCS is to follow the model of diving and multiply the two scores together instead of adding.

100x100 = 10,000.
110x90 = 9900
120x80 = 9600

 

[Tavi...]

A few issues got mixed up here, let's separate them one by one.

I used Jason as an example because he currently has the highest PCS for someone without a quad nationally or internationally, otherwise who do you suggest I use as an example to illustrate my point?

Tim's SC PCS comes from ISU judges unfamiliarity with him and lack of reputation (he was a substitute for Josh, his first GP at age 23), if he continued on the same standard, his PCS will rise. All skaters went through this, just look at Hanyu's first season PCS vs massive climb in the second. I already stated that I agree he was undermarked... however this has nothing to do with why Jin got his PCS which is right in line with the competition he participated.

Jason's inflated PCS at home is even HIGHER than Patrick Chan and Hanyu at their own nationals and world records. If you really think about it. Why should Adam, Max, Jeremy, Joshu compete with the likes of Patrick and Hanyu in their own nationals (+actually higher)? They are there to compete against Jason Brown. If you really look into the score history, inflation rarely applies consistently across the whole competition for all skaters, but it is usually the product of when judges tries or unintentionally propped up one skater in particular, then everyone follow him then more or less got relative scoring, but not always accurate (some may be held down), bit luck of the draw really. PCS is easiest thing to inflate, while TES is more limited, but a fairer system should be one if you inflate pcs, tes should be inflated to be in balance with inflation. As the score system require both sides to be in balance, it makes it unfair for those who compete mostly on TES like Max, and there should be room for all type of skaters to compete in they way they want either through TES or PCS, figure skating is both.

------------

Put it this way. IF you are fine with the way Jason have been scored, and they do decide increase the ceiling of PCS much higher... what is stopping Patrick or Hanyu all of a sudden decide not to put out any quads and beat the likes of Max with 3 quads or BYJ with 4 quads purely on the strength of their 100+ PCS with dumbed down tech programs and better consistency? It 's Jason's strategy last year, and Carolina's 2012 strategy. Their PCS is certainly likely to be much higher than Jason Brown with similar tech program, and with an increase in PCS values, they will certainly have a higher chance to beat Jason or Max with 2 quads (since performance/choreography usually suffer because of the quads) with their higher PCS? To me that idea is pretty outrageous and makes the sport noncompetitive.

I kinda think you misunderstood my point, OS. As far as I can see, you think reputation based inflation is fine for everyone except Jason. But as to your points:

I agree that PCS inflation is rarely consistent across any competition, but I don't think the fact that Jason's US nationals PCS is higher than Hanyu's in Japanese nationals or Chan's at Canadian nationals, if true (I didn't check) is relevant to anything.

To date, Chan and Hanyu have always, always, always outscored Jason internationally by quite a lot because their PCS is consistently higher than his, and without a quad, he can't match their TES however well he performs or however many transitions he adds. Even if Hanyu / Chan went with easier content, why would their advantage disappear? And why would they necessarily choose easier programs? In any case, all you have to do is look at Javi's FS score at COC versus Jason's WTT score and you can see that Javi, with lower TES than Jason, outscored him in PCS by 5 points. So what's the issue?

As to the unfairness of Jason's "inflated" PCS relative to other US guys, I just plain think you're wrong. Look at Max. He is probably the best example of someone who never got inflated PCS at US nationals. This year he decided to change what he was doing, by improving his programs, his presentation, and the quality of his jumps. And guess what? His PCS (and total scores) have risen internationally as a result, despite the fact that he didn't benefit from "inflated" PCS at US nationals.

As to Adam, Josh and Jeremy being demotivated because of Jason's high PCS at US nationals, where's the evidence of that?

In the first place, Josh, Jason and Adam were virtually tied in PCS this year. To be clear, that means that both Adam & Josh got higher PCS than Hanyu and Chan nationally. If Jason has "inflated" PCS, then so do Josh and Adam, don't they?

Let's look at post-nationals 2015. Josh was scored very highly at 2015 4CC - much higher than national champion Jason - because he gave a brilliant performance and Jason bombed his 4T & SP. Josh was scored lower at Worlds because he performed relatively poorly (and perhaps because he was in an earlier warm up group), not because he wasn't US champ. Adam didn't perform lights out at either comp and was scored accordingly. Where is the relationship with the "inflated" PCS all three received?

As to Jeremy - his 2014 total score and his component scores in both programs were higher than Jason's and sent him to the Olympics. So Jeremy has also had "inflated" PCS compared to Hanyu and Chan, right?

This year at Nats, Jeremy had lower scores because his TES was lower in both programs. His SP PCS was virtually identical, and in fact it was higher than Jason's PCS by a point. However, His TES dropped from 53.90 in 2014 to 44.53 in 2015. That's a 9-point difference, and it was more than 4 points lower than Jason's. His FS TES was relatively low (82, versus 84 for Josh, 89 for Jason and 95 for Adam) because he messed several jumps; even so. his PCS was 88, which is quite high.

You know, I really have no issue with your not liking Jason as a skater. You think he's hokey, unmusical, girly, insincere, a not very good skater? Okay. But there really isn't any evidence to support your inflated PCS conspiracy theory vis-a-vis Jason, especially when a cursory review of the data shows that several other skaters - some of whom you consider victims of Jason's "inflated" US nationals PCS in 2014 and 2015 - actually benefited from the same, or slightly higher inflation.

 

[TMC]

I kinda think you misunderstood my point, OS. As far as I can see, you think reputation based inflation is fine for everyone except Jason. But as to your points:.......

(whole post)

I'd just like to say: :thumbsup: :2thumbs:

 

[el henry]

I kinda think you misunderstood my point, OS. As far as I can see, you think reputation based inflation is fine for everyone except Jason.....

whole post

Let me join TMC: :agree::2thumbs:

 

[Violet Bliss]

One way to encourage a balance between TES and PCS is to follow the model of diving and multiply the two scores together instead of adding.

100x100 = 10,000.
110x90 = 9900
120x80 = 9600

So a square of a number (i.e. two equal components) is higher than any combination of its two components. Then it's most important that the two score components in figure skating be given possibility to be equal in value.

 

[plushyfan]

Hah maybe he's just upset that Jin "stole" Plu's music? Or maybe a bit miffed that Plu never landed a 4Z, but Jin just landed TWO.

Plushenko never landed 4Lz in competition... He landed in practice.. But probably Mishin really admires Boyan because of it.

Is Jin's skating Man enough for Mishin and Plushenko? Also wonder if Joubert is happy with the quad development in figure skating? Jin should be their poster boy.

Plushenko's poster boy is Yuzuru.

 

[plushyfan]

Jin is really dangerous. His FS was quite sloppy and he still scored 171 points! And that's will lowish components of only 72. Imagine if he skates his FS clean! The TES of about 100 was deserved and there's tons of room for that to improve. I think he has potential artistically, he's just not there yet.

:thumbsup:
I really believe Mishin was talking about this scenario...

 

[OS]

Tavi, I think you've still missed out the point of mathematical inequality with the effect of PCS inflation that heavily penulise those who compete mostly on TES. This is not just about Jason. (Although if you make it about why Jason deserve his almost 94 PCS then of course I am going to comment on why I don't think he deserve 94, that doesn't make him a poor skater or that I have something against him, it just means he is over scored, and if you can't see that he is overscored at US nationals for past 2 seaons, well... then i just don't know what to say. After all OGM Hanyu just received 88 PCS, WC Javier just received 92 recently met with some crying of inflation already. Newbie Jason got 93.34 at USNationals 2014 right off the bat more than 12+ PCS difference to what he usually get internationally soo... hmmm )

Do you agree in principle that inflation in this sport are mostly done through PCS? That every time that happens it can mess up with the equal balance of TES vs PCS which all skaters are judged under international judging standard (or they are suppose to)?

If you inflate someone's overall score by some 30 points at nationals competitions which they won't get internationally, you have to be very aware where the 'make up' of these scores that it is mostly done through PCS (+limited through GOEs). The consequence of that means someone who compete mostly through TES will need to find additional 30 points TES somewhere to make up the differences which they won't need if they are merely competiting at an international competition. Do you see the dilemma there?

In principle for the COP judging standard to apply fairly and consistently it means,

1) If you inflate someone, you should inflate all others on a relative basis to ensure the judging standard within that competition components is consistently applied, and still accurate on a relative basis even if it is overall inflated.

2) If you inflate PCS, in theory, TES should also need to be adjusted on a relative basis to reflect the balanced of the 2 parts make up under COP. This is simply not possible under the current judging system, where only TES is rigidly held to strict guidelines but not PCS. It is not like Max can boost himself 13 points by adding extra elements, or boost difficulty when most guys are maxed out at 2 quads already.

Again, so why should someone like Max have to compete against Hanyu and Patrick like PCS when he should just be competing against quadless Jason Brown who gets 78.88 (COR 14), 81.36 (SA 14) PCS at international scenes?

Ultimately you have to ask if you believe the same performance will gather similar scores internationally, or do you think PCS inflations can distort the score enough to make a ranking difference had they both competed internationally. Why do you think the Russia 2 quads guys regularly beat Jason Brown when they just have to skate relatively clean? Do you think they'd still able to beat Jason had they parktake at US national standard of judging?

 

[TMC]

 

[yuzushenko]

im not sure if this is related, but can somebody tell me why the PCS is factored by 0.8 for ladies and for men it is always 1.0 or 2.0 factor?

 

[Mathman]

im not sure if this is related, but can somebody tell me why the PCS is factored by 0.8 for ladies and for men it is always 1.0 or 2.0 factor?

Because the ISU wants the TES to come out approximately equal to the PCS on the average for both men and ladies. Typically men can score 25% more than ladies on TES, so they factor the ladies' PCS by the same amount.

A useful rule of thumb used to be that a top man could aspire to about 45-45 in the short program and 90-90 in the long, with ladies going about 36-36 (after factoring) and 72-72.

Yes, this is highly relevant to this thread. If men start surging ahead in TES because they can do multiple quads, this throws these expectations off.

 

[Warwick360]

.

A useful rule of thumb used to be that a top man could aspire to about 45-45 in the short program and 90-90 in the long, with ladies going about 36-36 (after factoring) and 72-72.

Isn't this supposed to be a range with different numbers, like 72-78, or is this how it is supposd to be? I'm starting to doubt myself and my intelligence now.

 

[Dr. Jenn]

Isn't this supposed to be a range with different numbers, like 72-78, or is this how it is supposd to be? I'm starting to doubt myself and my intelligence now.

I think Mathman meant that a top skater would aspire to attain, for instance, 45 in TES and 45 in PCS.

 

[Warwick360]

I think Mathman meant that a top skater would aspire to attain, for instance, 45 in TES and 45 in PCS.

Ah. Thanks.

 

[Dr. Jenn]

Ah. Thanks.

No problem!

 

[Tavi...]

Tavi, I think you've still missed out the point of mathematical inequality with the effect of PCS inflation that heavily penulise those who compete mostly on TES. This is not just about Jason. (Although if you make it about why Jason deserve his almost 94 PCS then of course I am going to comment on why I don't think he deserve 94, that doesn't make him a poor skater or that I have something against him, it just means he is over scored, and if you can't see that he is overscored at US nationals for past 2 seaons, well... then i just don't know what to say. After all OGM Hanyu just received 88 PCS, WC Javier just received 92 recently met with some crying of inflation already. Newbie Jason got 93.34 at USNationals 2014 right off the bat more than 12+ PCS difference to what he usually get internationally soo... hmmm )

Do you agree in principle that inflation in this sport are mostly done through PCS? That every time that happens it can mess up with the equal balance of TES vs PCS which all skaters are judged under international judging standard (or they are suppose to)?

If you inflate someone's overall score by some 30 points at nationals competitions which they won't get internationally, you have to be very aware where the 'make up' of these scores that it is mostly done through PCS (+limited through GOEs). The consequence of that means someone who compete mostly through TES will need to find additional 30 points TES somewhere to make up the differences which they won't need if they are merely competiting at an international competition. Do you see the dilemma there?

In principle for the COP judging standard to apply fairly and consistently it means,

1) If you inflate someone, you should inflate all others on a relative basis to ensure the judging standard within that competition components is consistently applied, and still accurate on a relative basis even if it is overall inflated.

2) If you inflate PCS, in theory, TES should also need to be adjusted on a relative basis to reflect the balanced of the 2 parts make up under COP. This is simply not possible under the current judging system, where only TES is rigidly held to strict guidelines but not PCS. It is not like Max can boost himself 13 points by adding extra elements, or boost difficulty when most guys are maxed out at 2 quads already.

Again, so why should someone like Max have to compete against Hanyu and Patrick like PCS when he should just be competing against quadless Jason Brown who gets 78.88 (COR 14), 81.36 (SA 14) PCS at international scenes?

Ultimately you have to ask if you believe the same performance will gather similar scores internationally, or do you think PCS inflations can distort the score enough to make a ranking difference had they both competed internationally. Why do you think the Russia 2 quads guys regularly beat Jason Brown when they just have to skate relatively clean? Do you think they'd still able to beat Jason had they parktake at US national standard of judging?

OS, thanks for taking the time to reply. I'm afraid we're just going to have to agree to disagree on this.

In principle, I think no PCS scores should ever be inflated for anyone - not because someone is World Champion, not because he's Olympic Champion, not because he's a new senior whose got a strong reputation preceding him, not because he can do a quad or two or three, not because he's a country's national champion, not for any reason ever. Unfortunately it happens all the time, and as you've pointed out, PCS is inflated unequally.

Where I disagree with you is the idea that PCS from a country's national championship has any relationship at all to the kind of scores a skater attains internationally. I just think they're two completely separate things. The judges are not ISU judges, or Canadian judges, or Japanese judges. They are US judges. You seem to believe that if Jason receives 93 PCS then the judges think he's the equal of Chan or Hanyu. I don't think that's the case at all. There is no absolute value for what "93" means in PCS - it's relative. I think that when someone gets a really high score relative to other skaters in the same competition, what it really means is the judges think the guy who got the really high score is a lot better than the guy who got the lower score. That's it, that's all.

So with respect to Max, for example, you're positioning this as "Max is being unfairly held back because Jason's PCS is way too high." But I simply look at it like this: the judges thought Jason (and Josh and Adam) had much better presentation and skating skills and choreography and interpretation than Max did. So they awarded Jason PCS 13 points higher than Max. It's the gap that's important - you're upset that it's 93 vs 80? Would you be as upset if it were 83 vs 70? It's the same thing. You might think there should be less of a gap between the two because their presentation is closer in your mind. But the judges thought otherwise. And by the way, I'm not sure what you mean about 30 points PCS inflation - are you seriously suggesting that Jason deserved 63 in PCS at Nats - PCS 17 points lower than Max, who got 80?

One last thing: you talk about distortion of the relationship between TES & PCS? Jason's total TES (SP & FS) at 138.10 was almost identical to Max's, at 138.76. Jason's base value was lower in both programs, but he got much higher GOE. Jason got negative GOE on one element - his < 3A in the FS. Max got negative GOE on 6 elements, which could very well have impacted the judges' perception of his program as a whole, and thus, his PCS.

By the way, Max's PCS in 2013 and 2014 Grand Prix comps were 68.58, 68.98, 71.92, and 72.98. So his PCS of 80 at 2015 Nats was actually pretty generous in comparison. I'm willing to bet, though, that Max's PCS will improve at Nats this year based on the positive changes he's made in his presentation, etc.

 

[whatif]

i think there's also psychological warfare by the Russians, a preemptive strike, all the high TES guys and girls are going to be put on notice. It will not only affect Jin but all the top tier skaters like Mao and Yuzuru who *choose* a more difficult layout. Imagine it no longer pays for the ladies to try 3a, or for men to try quads, the "wow" factor will gradually be lost. Under the current system, a low BV but well-skated program like Patrick's can beat a difficult program with flaws like Yuzuru's with GOEs and PCS. A lower BV and mediocre skate with a fall and stumbles by a high PCS skater like Javi still wins over a much higher TES with flaws like Jin's, so TES did not help both good jumpers to win under the current judging system, imagine if the PCS privilege is further raised, there will be absolutely no point to pursue any sort of technical difficulties anymore.

Yes let's make this all about Russian conspiracy.
As erlier someone posted, another and more high ranked Russian Lakernik had an opposite view to one expressed by Mishin. Let's not look for Russian warfare where there is none.

 

[TMC]

Wow Tavi you are on a roll, I'm lovin it!!! :2thumbs:

 

[OS]

OS, thanks for taking the time to reply. I'm afraid we're just going to have to agree to disagree on this.

It is fine to disagree, that is what the forum is for, to discuss all views including opposing views and even unpopular views ..and even offer the occasional space with those who contribute nothing except trolling with emoticons!

In principle, I think no PCS scores should ever be inflated for anyone - not because someone is World Champion, not because he's Olympic Champion, not because he's a new senior whose got a strong reputation preceding him, not because he can do a quad or two or three, not because he's a country's national champion, not for any reason ever. Unfortunately it happens all the time, and as you've pointed out, PCS is inflated unequally.

I certain agree with the bold part. That is why i wish to promoted the idea of ZERO tolerance for any inflation and likes to weigh stats according to historical records, identify factors that can contribute to inflation and speculate reasons for inconsistencies. Boosting PCS can be drug, the ultimate dope, and some federations are clearly addicted for that instant gratification and hallucination of glorious nationalist boasting . I have always believed there should be some sort of re calibration process in between big events as part of the Quality Assurance process to monitor consistent judging, but oh well.

Max's PCS in 2012/13 season suffered as he was seen as the 5th/6th skater from US (There's Jeremy, Adam, Jason. Josh and possibly Dornbush above him) had US federation pulled their muscle behind him as their top quads contender like his Russian counterpart, his PCS would have received the boost like Jason did. Not as high, but at least enough to be competitive internationally. I find judges can be a bit fickle like that.

Look at this year's SA marks, there's only 4 marks PCS separate Max and Jason. You can argue Max had overall better package this year from last, but I would hardly say it is 11+ points worth better (average mark you quoted 70s PCS vs 81.30 he received @SA15) In anycase an US inflation of 10 doesn't mean much when there's 13 points separate him and Jason PLUS it also removes any advantage he has having 13.56 higher TES in BV. The 30 points inflation I refer to are the Total score difference he received at home vs internationally.

2013-201 season

Nebelhorn trophy 228.43
Skate America 231.03
Olympics 238.37
US Nationals 270.08

2014-2015 season
Nebelhorn Trophy 237.17
Skate America 234.17
Cup of Russia 235.56
US Nationals 274.98

And by the way if 93 doesn't matter, everyone should be getting them at their nationals, but why they are not? It tells you something. I suspect if the results is predetermined, they had no choice but to inflate Jason so much so that he can

1. Appear strong and competitive as other world class skaters.
2. Clearly signal Jason is US's #fav rising star while Jeremy is being 'faded out' to offset his PCS advantages. They pretty much equalized in PCS which to me is ridiculous.
3. Offset any BV of Max's TES advantage which comes down to 13+ points higher. Plus broaden their gap through GOE and PCS.
4. A little bit of a cultural/nationality tradition/clash at stake. The biggest rivalry from Vancouver was the idea a well rounded skater without quads and good transitions like Lysacek deserve to beat Plushy.... well who's more Lysacek and Plushy than Jason and Max among US men?

Anyways back to Boyang... certainly the most exciting young skater we have seen since Hanyu. Hanyu already pretty much had the package for me since his debut.. Boyang has a long way to go, but the improvements he has shown from last is already noticeable and encouraging. He need better programs and better artistic directions and mentorship. Hanyu absorbs a great deal from his favourite skaters, I am curious who are Boyang's favs.

 

[qwertyskates]

One way to encourage a balance between TES and PCS is to follow the model of diving and multiply the two scores together instead of adding.

100x100 = 10,000.
110x90 = 9900
120x80 = 9600

I think this is a great solution, so the effect of BOTH matter equally.

Btw, I want to point out that PCS upwards of 90 is the equivalent of skaters achieving TES upwards of 2 quads in a cleanish program, with level 4s in Step Sequence and Spins.

To asses *balance* it will be useful to see how frequently skaters scored over 90s for TES vs PCS on the whole, over competitions. Is there a link for these statistics?

If >90 TES awarded exceeds frequently >90 PCS awarded, then yes, there is a danger of imbalance.

Statistically, you can't take an outlier and declare it a trend, which is what is happening here. 6 quads is an outlier, as was Kevin Reynolds' 5 quads, other than Yuzuru, which other skater is capable of multiple quads? How many skaters are capable of >90 TES, how many are capable of >90 PCS?

You have to take an overall picture to declare a "dangerous trend", not just one skater's unique capability.