Mishin's opinion on components based on Jin

[andyjo24]

This is my opinion:

PCS represents REPUTATION more so than artistry.

So what that means is if Jin consistently does his difficult technical programs, he will be consistently on the podium, which will allow him to gain reputation and will eventually boost his PCS scores even without making improvements. I mean, think about it, if Jin were to medal at his next GP and the GPF as well as 4CC, of course his PCS will be a higher for a similar performance at Worlds (If he keeps this momentum, I expect PCS of around 77-78 by the end of the season).

This is all WITHOUT improvements. But Jin is aware that he needs to make improvements in the PCS side of things, and of course, he will work on that, further boosting his PCS scores.

I expect Jin to reach the 85-90 PCS range by Pyeongchang 2018, which should be more than enough to beat Hanyu and Chan, especially when these two do not deliver.

 

[meteorlight8]

The system is unbalanced.

Image it, you can never reach 100 PCS. But you can reach 120 TES. then in that case it really looks unbalance because PCS you have maxed it out but TES you can go further. There is no higher 100 for PCS, but there is higher for TES. So the system need to be adjusted.

Either you lower the GOE in general, to lower the TES, or you adjust so PCS will become 1:1 more with the TES.

Well skating is a SPORT, so imo if someone can be an exceptional and push the envelop of tech and athleticism, I have no problem with that being rewarded. What does most of the PCS categories other than SS have to do with sports anyway? It's not like PCS is ignored - it still factors in hugely. Putting a cap on actual tech or devising means to artificially keep down the value of TES is just ridiculous and will do no credit to the legitimacy of figure skating as a sport. I enjoy a well-choreographed and balanced program, but I still think artistry should only count so much in a competitive sport.

Practically speaking, artistry CAN be maxed out more or less (to a point where the judging would get really REALLY subjective and meaningless), but there's no such type of limit to the tech side. It's just the nature of art and sports, really. You people are talking like it'd be EASY to get 120 TES - if someone does achieve that then it SHOULD be awarded!

That said, there's definitely an argument the way TES/GOE is awarded can be restructured so rotation is not the holy grail if falls or super wonky landings are involved, but if someone can execute an abundance of beautiful difficult jumps deserving of high GOEs (not saying this is Jin at the moment just in general), they shouldn't be considered a "problem" to be dealt with to keep the "artists" in play and competitive.

 

[HanDomi]

I expect Jin to reach the 85-90 PCS range by Pyeongchang 2018, which should be more than enough to beat Hanyu and Chan, especially when these two do not deliver.

And then Hanyu and Chan will be at 100

 

[Violet Bliss]

My own observations:

1) So there were many many TES achieved that were >Jin over the past season, why is it a crisis *NOW* and not back when quite a few competitions skaters were exceeding 100 TES? Wouldn't the breach of the 100 TES be the catalyst for this talk of imbalance?

Jin is unprecedented and unique in his history making and record breaking in the most quads performed in one program and one event, the first 4Lz combo ever, highest TES for his age and for Senior GP debut. His TES was almost 100 and the potential is enormous if he gets his jumps steady, likely with experience and further development.

There have been some talks about the imbalance but Jin popped just about everybody's eyes wide open.

2) It appears in 2013-2014 there were more >90 PCS awarded vs >90 TES awarded, in 2014-2015, the trend reversed.

As Violet Bliss pointed out, many veteran high PCS skaters retired, eg. Machida, Oda, Takahashi, and the breakouts like Aaron and newcomers like Shoma, Farris, Jason, Han and Jin arrived on the Senior's circuit.

Takahashi's retirement had the most to do with fewer PCS>TES and total PCS numbers. Brown may replace him in that category if he ever makes the list(s).

The new podium skaters all have PCS in the 70s-80s, while their TES are in high 80s to 90s.

Do I think there's something "unbalanced", that TES is too high?

No, because newly arrived skaters normally do not receive high 90s PCS in their first or second seasons, while their TES are already in the high 80s or 90s due to their layout. As their careers progress leading up to the Olympics, naturally their PCS will increase, like they did for Yuzuru, Javier and Dennis.

The new comers, some of whom are actually close to veteran Chan's and Hanyu's ages, joined the scene with much greater TES/PCS difference than the veterans ever did. These "veterans" arrived with much higher PCS than Jin and had some PCS>TES performances. These facts can be seen in the data additions by alia jackson.

Only Patrick, Yuzuru, Javier and Dennis enjoy a closely matched high TES/PCS ratio, they are of course veterans of the Olympics and Worlds.

Among those you named as new comers are veterans of the Olympic and Worlds. And these 4 top skaters have more TES>PCS performances as well. In fact, no performances with 90+ TES ever incur higher PCS than TES.

Yuzuru's TES and PCS were in similar territory in 2013 until his PCS shot up from 80s to high 90s leading to Sochi.

Prior to 2013, Hanyu's had TES in the low 90's and his PCS were already in low to mid 80's, unlike the newest comers. Both his TES and PCS shot up, the former more than the latter.

My conclusion is the opposite - these new skaters, Shoma, Mura, Aaron, Jin, Han, still have a long way to go to earn their PCS, and no, Jin's 99 TES is not something to be worried about, especially as many have already scored higher than 100 TES at least for 2 years now with no hysterical outbursts or seismic after effect on the sports.

I really see Jin as being SINGLED out here for the brouhaha, as the higher TES vs PCS trend had begun before he even skated his first Senior's.

With his low 70s PCS, the lowest out of the current crop of new skaters on the Seniors' scene, it means that Jin is in fact quite unlikely to progress far, even if he were to skate clean. Shoma, Mura, Aaron, Jason, are all way ahead, not to mention Patrick, Yuzuru, Javier, Dennis.

Jin is singled out for good and flattering reasons. Nobody among those you named as new or old shows TES potential like Jin does. It is believable that he could raise his TES much higher than he has earned in his first showing at a major Senior event whereas people wouldn't dream of most of the others ever being able to do all those jumps.

I am not "worried" about Jin "stealing" all the limelights and some medals. More power and kudos to him if he does. Jin as an exceptional case should be of no concern about the system. It is the trend that seems more and more obvious that causes some of us to reconsider how important the tech/art balance is in figure skating and if it should be promoted with scoring incentives, just as quads have been.

 

[Mathman]

My own observations:

1) So there were many many TES achieved that were >Jin over the past season, why is it a crisis *NOW* and not back when quite a few competitions skaters were exceeding 100 TES? Wouldn't the breach of the 100+ TES be the catalyst for this talk of imbalance, with TES exceeding the 100 cap for PCS?

I think Jin's performance was a wake-up call. Yes, in the past world champions like Hanyu were flirting with 100 in TES, but they also backed it up with 90s in PCS. A remarkable tour de force, but nothing alarming (except perhaps to other skaters).

Jin is different in two ways. First, by landing two quad Lutzes he drew attention to the fact that the sky really is the limit in TES and the near future may see people doing quad loops, quad flips, 4 quads in a program, five quads in a program, six quads in a program, etc.

AND, secondly, this was accomplished not by a world champion but by a relatively unpolished newcomer, as witnessed by his only so-so SS and performance skills. What is to prevent a dozen Boyang Jins from popping up over the next few years, scoring 110, 120, 130 TES and PCSs only half that? And winning over skaters who have a more balanced approach to figure skating.

Edited to add:

130+65 = 195
95+95 = 190

But…

130x65 = 8450
95x95 = 9025

 

[qwertyskates]

^^^
Agreed with most of your points, Violet Bliss, though I meant Max Aaron when I talked about breakout veterans, Chan, Javier, Yuzuru haven't left, they were always there.

Their TES have exceeded their PCS for a few years now, since their debut. So TES>PCS have been there since CoP debut till today. My question is why was it fine from 2011, all through the years of GP, Olympics, Worlds, BUSTING the long feared 100 TES ceiling several times by various veterans from at least 2 years ago, until November 6th 2015, when suddenly it is *dangerous* and "not ok* and the system needs to be changed?

Actually, Jin is just a kid, with a talent for jumps, still the lowest in PCS among the podium. I would love to see more of his 4lz-3t, medal or no medal, would be sad if he doesn't make it. I really feel sorry for him for attracting all the negative attention.

 

[Mrs. P]

I think Jin's performance was a wake-up call. Yes, in the past world champions like Hanyu were flirting with 100 in TES, but they also backed it up with 90s in PCS. A remarkable tour de force, but nothing alarming (except perhaps to other skaters).

Jin is different in two ways. First, by landing two quad Lutzes he drew attention to the fact that the sky really is the limit in TES and the near future may see people doing quad loops, quad flips, 4 quads in a program, five quads in a program, six quads in a program, etc.

AND, secondly, this was accomplished not by a world champion but by a relatively unpolished newcomer, as witnessed by his only so-so SS and performance skills. What is to prevent a dozen Boyang Jins from popping up over the next few years, scoring 110, 120, 130 TES and PCSs only half that? And winning over skaters who have a more balanced approach to figure skating.

Edited to add:

130+65 = 195
95+95 = 190

But…

130x65 = 8450
95x95 = 9025

For me, I don't think it's a crisis YET because I don't see a dozen Boyang Jins who are doing this (100 TES, multiple quads, etc.) consistently. We don't even have ONE Boyang Jin doing it consistently. Heck the data that alla jackson provided shows that we don't even have a lot of men consistently even doing 90+ let alone 100+.

For me, it's a matter of what the human body can handle. I supposed with more conditioning one could handle that much strain on one's body, but if you do that every time, I can't help but wonder if you'll have a scenario where you a Boyang-like skater do super well for a year or two but then burn out from the wear-and-tear.

 

[qwertyskates]

For me, I don't think it's a crisis YET because I don't see a dozen Boyang Jins who are doing this (100 TES, multiple quads, etc.) consistently. We don't even have ONE Boyang Jin doing it consistently. Heck the data that alla jackson provided shows that we don't even have a lot of men consistently even doing 90+ let alone 100+.

For me, it's a matter of what the human body can handle. I supposed with more conditioning one could handle that much strain on one's body, but if you do that every time, I can't help but wonder if you'll have a scenario where you a Boyang-like skater do super well for a year or two but then burn out from the wear-and-tear.

These are my very thoughts too. :agree: Jin is an outlier, and his lowish PCS will keep him at a safe distance from the podium yet.

I do wish that he improves on PCS and keeps or lowers his BV so he doesn't injure himself like Kevin Reynolds.

 

[MaxSwagg]

There's a point to where the exact PCS numbers are arbitrary. Yuzu got 88.xx at SC, but who's to say he wouldn't have gotten 90 a week later (or even in the morning of the same day vs. night). Or who's to say Patrick wouldn't have gotten 93 a week later or several hours earlier. What's the range within which components can be described as random or "chance"? +/-5%? Obviously, using Patrick as an example, a great performance will garner something like 95; we would expect a poor performance do deviate significantly from that (say 85). But if at 10 AM he skates a great performance and gets 95, then he skates at 10PM and gets 93 (or even 92), is that significant? If you were just looking at numbers and saw 95 vs. 93, would you anticipate it being essentially a carbon copy of the earlier performance or would it cause you to think that something was a little off in the latter performance?

Also brings back the issue of should components be relative across the field of current skaters (or really NOT relative in that there's no comparison) or should they be scored relative to current (i.e. Patrick) and past (i.e. Dai) skaters? Patrick receives 90 so should Jin, if he skates a great performance, be given 70 because we know Patrick's quality and it wasn't at that level (even though Patrick wasn't there)? Or if Jin is clearly the best in a competition, should he be given 90 for the sole reason that he was the best skater relative to the others in that competition?

 

[Mathman]

Actually, Jin is just a kid, with a talent for jumps, still the lowest in PCS among the podium. I would love to see more of his 4lz-3t, medal or no medal, would be sad if he doesn't make it. I really feel sorry for him for attracting all the negative attention.

I hope young Mr. Jin doesn't think of the publicity as negative. I hope he's thinking, "Wow, I crushed those guys so bad that the only way they can hold me back is to change the rules on me."

 

[Violet Bliss]

I hope young Mr. Jin doesn't think of the publicity as negative. I hope he's thinking, "Wow, I crushed those guys so bad that the only way they can hold me back is to change the rules on me."

I think Jin should be very pleased and proud. He . The best and the threats always get nit picked. It's always fun for a young man to rock the boat, no?

 

[qwertyskates]

I hope young Mr. Jin doesn't think of the publicity as negative. I hope he's thinking, "Wow, I crushed those guys so bad that the only way they can hold me back is to change the rules on me."

..I would be tickled if he has that mental strength! Yes, it does take that type of steel to make it as a champ, like Yuzuru, he took a lot of flak too, in his early days.

 

[qwertyskates]

Also brings back the issue of should components be relative across the field of current skaters (or really NOT relative in that there's no comparison) or should they be scored relative to current (i.e. Patrick) and past (i.e. Dai) skaters? Patrick receives 90 so should Jin, if he skates a great performance, be given 70 because we know Patrick's quality and it wasn't at that level (even though Patrick wasn't there)? Or if Jin is clearly the best in a competition, should he be given 90 for the sole reason that he was the best skater relative to the others in that competition?

Even though it shouldn't, PCS is also (invisibly) awarded based on reputation and longevity, skaters know that when their PCS rise it is a good sign that they are catching the judge's attention and approval. When the 90s are reached, it's a sign that they have finally "arrived". It's not strictly fair but it's a way to reward long-term commitment, perseverance and improvement, and I'm fine with it too.

 

[alia jackson]

I've added additional data back to 2010-2011 season....post #143

Looks like the first time TES and PCS score > 90 was at Worlds 2011.

 

[Violet Bliss]

Reputation and PCS rise are often co-related but not necessarily causal in their relationship. With maturity, more training and experiences, PCS rises along with TES, higher placements, and reputation. Reputation follows better performances and competition results. Elite skaters deserve credit for their hard earned achievements, not dismissal, scoffing and denigration.

 

[gkelly]

There's a point to where the exact PCS numbers are arbitrary. Yuzu got 88.xx at SC, but who's to say he wouldn't have gotten 90 a week later (or even in the morning of the same day vs. night). Or who's to say Patrick wouldn't have gotten 93 a week later or several hours earlier. What's the range within which components can be described as random or "chance"? +/-5%? Obviously, using Patrick as an example, a great performance will garner something like 95; we would expect a poor performance do deviate significantly from that (say 85). But if at 10 AM he skates a great performance and gets 95, then he skates at 10PM and gets 93 (or even 92), is that significant? If you were just looking at numbers and saw 95 vs. 93, would you anticipate it being essentially a carbon copy of the earlier performance or would it cause you to think that something was a little off in the latter performance?

I wouldn't say so much "arbitrary" as "variable." Time of day (and the corresponding judges' mood/mindset in general) might be one factor that would cause variance. Which judges are on the panel would likely have even more effect -- even discounting effects of possible national bias, individual judges may have different pet peeves or favorite qualities to reward, or different approaches to turning their assessments of the skating into numerical values.

Skate order should have less effect on actual scores in IJS than it did in 6.0 -- there's no need for judges to intentionally save room in their scores -- but unconscious psychological effects might cause them to give somewhat higher scores later in an event than they would have given for the performance earlier.

Also brings back the issue of should components be relative across the field of current skaters (or really NOT relative in that there's no comparison) or should they be scored relative to current (i.e. Patrick) and past (i.e. Dai) skaters?

My understanding of the intention, removing all the unintentional effects on scoring as mentioned above, is that each judge should assign scores relative to a mental image of what 8.0 Skating Skills or 7.0 Choreography looks like, developed over years of watching thousands of skaters at various levels.

When you get to scores in the 9s, though, there won't be many individual skaters who contributed to that mental image of performances at that level, so they probably could remember the specific skaters by name and perhaps some specific memorable performances.

Patrick receives 90 so should Jin, if he skates a great performance, be given 70 because we know Patrick's quality and it wasn't at that level (even though Patrick wasn't there)? Or if Jin is clearly the best in a competition, should he be given 90 for the sole reason that he was the best skater relative to the others in that competition?

No, that's 6.0/ordinal thinking at best -- and even with 6.0 scoring, judges did tend to have a mental image of what a 5.9 performance would look like. They wouldn't have given those scores in the high 5s to skaters who weren't among the best in the world, or maybe among the best in their country at national competitions, even if the performance was clearly the best in the event.

But with 6.0, the actual scores didn't really matter, so if their scale was significantly skewed but consistent within itself for a given competition, the ordinals could still work out the way each judge intended and it wouldn't cause a problem.

With IJS, they're specifically expected to keep the meaning of the PCS numbers consistent across competitions, to the best of their ability, although various factors can interfere with being 100% consistent.

 

[Tavi...]

And it will be more honest of you to simply admit you love Jason too much and not able to being objectively enough to admit he was massively overscored for his US nationals. To the point it made it unfair for others competing against him.

Actually if you follow my posts in the US men thread, Jason's inflated scoring began in 2013/14 season. I'd have state the same had Hanyu received his 2015 PCS in 2013 season without having to earn it out right? (In fact I did, if you visit the Japanese Nationals 2013 threads on this forum when he won over Daisuke). It is not about cherry picking facts, it is about looking at them objectively. Reputation does matter to scoring... whether you like it or not but the skater have to EARN IT. Jeremy earned his PCS through years of work, Jason had not. As a relative new skater making their season debut not even competed at senior WC or having any major titles to show for it, he received 94 PCS for his quadless program is simply too high. Just refer to the post #143 The real world standards are there in black and white.

Shoma for example I'd rate a much more talented skater than Jason (actually have the medals to show for it including a Junior World Championship), and his PCS at Skate Canada was only 84, and it has already been described as being far too high by many posters on this forum for a youngster, so how can you say PCS 94 is not high back in 2013 and is right??

It is not about cherry picking facts, it is about looking at them objectively. I realise it must be easier to brand me a hater than admit that infact Jason Brown is hugely propped up in PCS, but the records are all there in black and white and people can judge for themselves.

Yes, I'm a Jason fan but I'm not blind to the fact that he has plenty of room for improvement.

I make my living evaluating arguments and the strength of evidence supporting those arguments. In my line of work it's important to remember that just because two sets of facts exist doesn't mean there is a causal relationship - or indeed any relationship - between them.

In your posts, you repeatedly take two or more sets of facts and conclude that there's a causal relationship between them based solely on your opinion of what is right, in the process ignoring facts that don't fit. I could give you specific examples, but for the sake of others in this thread - which after all is about Mishin & Jin - I will refrain.

The reason I said you should just admit you dislike Jason and move on is not because I think you're a "hater" - though god knows you've made it clear that you don't think much of Jason. It's simply because, however much you've theorized about the dangers of inflated PCS in the abstract, you've only ever mentioned Jason as an example - and that you do repeatedly.

 

[OS]

Yes, I'm a Jason fan but I'm not blind to the fact that he has plenty of room for improvement.

I make my living evaluating arguments and the strength of evidence supporting those arguments. In my line of work it's important to remember that just because two sets of facts exist doesn't mean there is a causal relationship - or indeed any relationship - between them.

In your posts, you repeatedly take two or more sets of facts and conclude that there's a causal relationship between them based solely on your opinion of what is right, in the process ignoring facts that don't fit. I could give you specific examples, but for the sake of others in this thread - which after all is about Mishin & Jin - I will refrain.

The reason I said you should just admit you dislike Jason and move on is not because I think you're a "hater" - though god knows you've made it clear that you don't think much of Jason. It's simply because, however much you've theorized about the dangers of inflated PCS in the abstract, you've only ever mentioned Jason as an example - and that you do repeatedly.

Fine. Give me an example of a male skater who you think is repeatedly over marked in PCS without a quad, enough to make a ranking difference, and if I am satisfied I will use such a person as my example to illustrate any future points of PCS inflation, and refrain from mention Jason Brown in Golden Skate. How's that?

 

[Rissa]

Fine. Give me an example of a male skater who you think is repeatedly over marked in PCS without a quad, enough to make a ranking difference, and if I am satisfied I will use such a person as my example to illustrate any future points of PCS inflation, and refrain from mention Jason Brown in Golden Skate. How's that?

So the theory is based on one, just one, skater who nobody but you thinks is overmarked. lol.

 

[Tavi...]

Fine. Give me an example of a male skater who you think is repeatedly over marked in PCS without a quad, enough to make a ranking difference, and if I am satisfied I will use such a person as my example to illustrate any future points of PCS inflation, and refrain from mention Jason Brown in Golden Skate. How's that?

I'm afraid I can't give you any examples of any skaters who I think are repeatedly over marked, with or without a quad. It's not something I worry about much. I thought Hanyu was over marked at COC last year - his PCS was 84 with 5 falls - but I can't say if he is consistently over marked. Some people thought PCS of 84 was fine because it's lower than he usually gets. I didn't think it was low enough for what he put on the ice. I thought he got a lot of pity and World / Olympic champion reputation points. I don't blame him for the performance - obviously he was badly hurt - but in my opinion it was not deserving of 84 PCS.