My early top 10 predictions for top 2008 Worlds

[Mathman]

Ah yes, the infamous "country deserves" vs. "performance deserves," I forget about that at times.

Sonia Bianchetti, in her famous book Cracked Ice goes into a certain amount of detail about why the U.S. is so clueless about playing the political game withing the ISU.

Ms. Bianchetti says it's incredible that, as rich and powereful as USFS ought to be, they don't know anything about coalition building, and especially they don't know anything about how to drop little favors to the smaller federations so that you will be in a position to call in favors.

Really, it's quite scandalous that a major player like the U.S. should be such a pushover.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Domnina and Shabulin made great strides last year. They finished fifth at Worlds and everyone above them except Belbin and Agosto is much older. They were also third at the Grand Prix Finals (neither Virtue/Moir nor Davis/White made the finals.)

Isn't this like comparing the top athletes with the rookies? :sheesh:

Both those failures made the top Seven at Worlds. One behind the more experiencd DandS., and they were ahead of others who did make the GP Finals.

Joe

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Really, it's quite scandalous that a major player like the U.S. should be such a pushover.

Zhulin said the same thing.

 

[antmanb]

I am wondering the samething.

Plushenko will be in top two, gold or silver. Lambiel, Joubert, and Takahashi, only one of them could beat him in the same competition.

Can we say that with any certainty. I know Plush absolutely dominated the men for four years and rivalled Yags for a good three years before that too....but does anyone know what kind of shape he's in - especially after surgery. Does he have all his triples, does he have his quad(s)?

Ant

 

[antmanb]

Sasha Cohen for the win with Michelle Kwan as the runner-up, and Jenny Kirk in a surprise comeback breaking the bronze ribbon.

Joe

That was too good an opportunity to miss!!!

Ant

 

[russell30]

Men:

1. Lambiel
2. Takahashi
3. Verner
4. Joubert
5. Oda
6. Lysacek
7. Weir
8. Preaubert
9. Abbott
10. Buttle

Ladies:

1. Asada
2. Kim
3. Ando
4. Meissner
5. Meier
6. Kostner
7. Poykio
8. Rochette
9. Hughes
10. Korpi

Dance:

1. Denkova/Staviski
2. Domnina/Shabalin
3. Belbin/Agosto
4. Davis/White
5. Moir/Virtue
6. Delobel/Schoenfeldner
7. Khokhlova/Novitski
8. Pechalat/Bourzat
9. Faiella/Scali
10. Kerr/Kerr

Pairs:

1. Pang/Tong
2. Savchenko/Szokoly
3. Zhang/Zhang
4. Dube/Davison
5. Kawaguchi/Smirnov
6. Inoue/Baldwin
7. Volosozhar/Morozov
8. Mukhortova/Trankov
9. Langlois/Hay
10. Castile/Okolski

Too early to predict in my opinion, anything can happen between now and say national championships for everyone but I think in the ladies Mao Asada will be in a league of her own this season but time will tell

 

[GoldMedalist]

I find it really hard to predict on the Men's side. SO much depth of talent and really no way of knowing what is going to happen.

Lambiel and Plushenko's bodies might not hold up; Joubert could get those defending champion jitters, Weir and Buttle...questionable consistency at this point; Oda might be VERY negatively affected by the DUI thing for the whole season; Lysacek has proven himself to be consistent but now it's a question of "Is he really GREAT?"; and Verner might have been a flash in the pan.

The ONLY thing I feel *sort of* safe about saying is that Takahashi WILL be on the podium.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I find it really hard to predict on the Men's side. SO much depth of talent and really no way of knowing what is going to happen.

Very true. The mens event has by far the most depth of legitimate potential contenders, and the most uncertainty surrounding it. Which makes it exciting.

Lambiel and Plushenko's bodies might not hold up;

Very true, not to mention their motivation, for varying reasons. One perhaps may not find the return to competition, after a year off doing only shows and a cushier life, is not all its cracked up to be. The other struggled with motivation almost all of last year, and was possibly close to retiring at one point, only deciding at the last minute to even try and defend his World title.

Joubert could get those defending champion jitters,

If the French press saddle him with more expectations it could get tough on him. That is when he has struggled in the past generaly.

Weir and Buttle...questionable consistency at this point;

I sort of agree, but would say Weir questionable consistency and true drive to reach the top, along with a ticking clock, given that he is an increasingly older skater who has yet to medal at a major event, and is losing status with the judges as we speak based on little hints from their scores of last year.

In Buttle's case it would be more jumping limitations period. Is he even capable of doing a quad, or landing a triple axel more then 50% of the time? I think Buttle doesnt so much have consistency problems as he has hit his jumping limit, and it is remarkable he has even done what he has with a jumping limit below what the modern day truly demands of its top guys.

Oda might be VERY negatively affected by the DUI thing for the whole season;

Definitely could be. Plus his season seemed to fizzle out a bit near the end anyway, and to reach the heights of his GP events season again wont be easy.

Lysacek has proven himself to be consistent but now it's a question of "Is he really GREAT?";

I would say no. His only real weapon is his consistency. He is the kind of skater who finds himself on the podium through others crashing around him. There is nothing else that sets him apart from any of the other top guys, except there are a few others who dont do a quad, but many who do. Now that he has mastered a quad, I think he is pretty much at his peak of his own skating already.

and Verner might have been a flash in the pan.

You are right. Might be. Might not be. Will be intersting to see.

The ONLY thing I feel *sort of* safe about saying is that Takahashi WILL be on the podium.

Somewhat agree.

 

[rutinia]

Ladies only

I can't see three Asians on the podium at Sweden.

Mao is becoming more and more complete and it's very difficult to hold her down by usual means. Once she's recognized as "the favorite", isn't it better to expect something "historical" from her?

As for Ando, I doubt her motivations. She has already paid back for the humiliation at Torino. Can she hang on for the whole season? Landing a quad at worlds could be the one, and it's really unpredictable.

I doubt if Kim can "qualify" as Mao's rival this season. A skater mainly depending on the GOE and the PCS is the easiest target to shoot down. Much less when she's at "away".

Meissner is the key for winning a medal and gaining three spots for the US. If she qualifies for GPF (it's very likely), she will be recognized as "Mao's rival" by the ISU and IMG, and the "big push" follows. Her (possibly dubious) "3F-3Lo" could be ratified too.

Kostner is the No.1 contender for Europe. She must have strong supports from the audience and the judges. Can she handle the pressure? That's the problem. She's as unpredictable as Ando.

1 Mao Asada
2 Kimmie Meissner
3 Miki Ando
4 YuNa Kim
5 Carolina Kostner
6 Joannie Rochette
7 Sarah Meier
8 Yukari Nakano

 

[Lilbit]

Men:

1. Lambiel
2. Takahashi
3. Verner
4. Joubert
5. Oda
6. Lysacek
7. Weir
8. Preaubert
9. Abbott
10. Buttle

I hope for Berntsson to make the top ten.

 

[goldenpleasures]

Verner might have been a flash in the pan.

I've seen Verner improving dramatically over several seasons, especially at Europeans. I don't think he's a flash in the pan; I think he's now a real contender.

 

[Gericho2004]

For the 2007/2008 season, the following changes have been made to the "free dance" :

*4 Lifts: 2 short, 2 long--the "long" lifts have been extended an extra 12 seconds

*3 Step sequences:
- 1 Midline step sequence (similar to original dance, but without the twizzles)
-1 serpentine step
-1 serpentine step with 3 lobes incorporated

I personally preferred last year's format, which gave the teams a little "wiggle room" for creativity. This year's format seems compressed with technical elements. How do you think these changes will impact the top dance teams this season.

 

[skatingfan04]

For the 2007/2008 season, the following changes have been made to the "free dance" :

*4 Lifts: 2 short, 2 long--the "long" lifts have been extended an extra 12 seconds

*3 Step sequences:
- 1 Midline step sequence (similar to original dance, but without the twizzles)
-1 serpentine step
-1 serpentine step with 3 lobes incorporated

I personally preferred last year's format, which gave the teams a little "wiggle room" for creativity. This year's format seems compressed with technical elements. How do you think these changes will impact the top dance teams this season.

I personally don't like having the midline in the FD. I prefer seeing it just in the OD. Longer lifts may be nice, though. It will certainly solve the problem of the countless long lift deductions we saw last season. I don't think this will affect the top teams. These are the best teams in the world. They'll be able to adapt.

 

[museksk8r]

I'd love this outcome:

Fantasy:
Men
1. Lambiel
2. Abbott
3. Chan
4. Buttle
5. Takahashi
6. Verner
7. Joubert
8. Lysacek

Ladies
1. Rochette
2. Kostner
3. Meier
4. Kim
5. Meissner
6. Liang
7. Wagner
8. Korpi

Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Vise/Trent
3. Dube/Davison
4. Kawaguchi/Smirnov

Dance
1. Virtue/Moir
2. Belbin/Agosto
3. Delobel/Schoenfelder
4. Davis/White

That's right, I want to see some unpredictable shake-ups . . . keep things interesting!

Reality:
Men
1. Lambiel
2. Takahashi
3. Verner
4. Lysacek
5. Joubert
6. Weir
7. Chan
8. Buttle
9. Voronov
10. Carriere
11. Van Der Perren
12. Ponsero

Ladies
1. Kim
2. Asada (Mao)
3. Ando
4. Rochette
5. Kostner
6. Nakano
7. Wagner
8. Meier
9. Meissner
10. Korpi
11. Leung
12. Liang

Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Zhangs
3. Pang/Tong
4. Kawaguchi/Smirnov

Dance
1. Domnina/Shabalin
2. Belbin/Agosto
3. Delobel/Schoenfelder
4. Virtue/Moir
(I could see 2-4 finish in any order to be honest.)

 

[mirai_asada]

1 Mao Asada
2 Kimmie Meissner
3 Miki Ando
4 YuNa Kim
5 Carolina Kostner
6 Joannie Rochette
7 Sarah Meier
8 Yukari Nakano

Hmmm...I think it's definitely possible for Kim to make the podium for the 2008 Worlds. Once she's cleared of all injuries, she can be a tough match to beat. Ando is too unpredictable; and I wouldn't bet on Meissner. But Asada making the top spot is highly likely since she's steadily improving.

 

[oleada]

Ladies:
1. Asada
2. Kim
3. Ando
4. Meissner
5. Nakano
6. Kostner
7. Meier

Dance:
1. Domnina/Shabalin
2. Belbin/Agosto
3. Delobel/Schoenfelder
4. Virtue/Moir
5. Khoklova/Novitski
6. Davis/White

Pairs.
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Pang/Tong
3. Volosozhar/Morozov
4. Zhang/Zhang
5. Kawaguchi/Smirnov
6. Dubé/Davison

Men:
1. Joubert
2. Takahashi
3. Verner
4. Lambiel
5. Oda

 

[jsteam4501s]

Hmmmmm..............

Has anyone here taken a look at the results of the recent team competition between the U.S. and Japan, held in Japan? Go to the link on the main page of Golden Skate and take a look.............

Hmmmmm...............

 

[tharrtell]

I've very much out of the loop ... but did Shen and Zhao retire?

 

[slutskayafan21]

I've very much out of the loop ... but did Shen and Zhao retire?

Yes. Although leaving a small chance to come back for the 2009-2010 Olympic season.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I am already going to change my predictions some:

Men:

1. Lambiel-same
2. Takahashi-same
3. Verner-same
4. Joubert-same
5. Oda-same
6. Lysacek-same
7. Chan-added to list (wasnt in my top 10 before)
8. Weir (dropped 1 spot)
9. Buttle (raised 1 spot)
10. Carriere (wasnt in top 10 before)

Dropped from list- Preaubert, Abbott

Ladies:

1. Asada-same
2. Kim-same
3. Meissner (raised 1 spot)
4. Ando (dropped 1 spot)
5. Nakano- added to list (wasnt in my top 10 before)
6. Meier (dropped 1 spot)
7. Kostner (dropped 1 spot)
8. Rochette-same
9. Hughes-same
10. Korpi-same

Dropped from list- Poykio

Dance:

1. Domnina/Shabalin (raised 1 spot)
2. Delobel/Schoenfelder (raised 4 spots)
3. Moir/Virtue (raised 2 spots)
4. Belbin/Agosto (dropped 1 spot)
5. Khokhlova/Novitski (raised 2 spots)
6. Pechalat/Bourzat (raised 2 spots)
7. Cappellini/LaNotte- added to list (wasnt in my top 10 before)
8. Faiella/Scali (raised 1 spot)
9. Davis/White (dropped 5 spots)
10. Kerr/Kerr-same

dropped from list- Denkova/Stayviski

Pairs:

1. Savchenko/Szokoly (raised 1 spot)
2. Pang/Tong (dropped 1 spot)
3. Zhang/Zhang- same
4. Dube/Davison- same
5. Mukhortova/Trankov (raised 3 spots)
6. Mclaughlin/Brubaker- added to list (wasnt in my top 10 before)
7. Kawaguchi/Smirnov (dropped 2 spots)
8. Volosozhar/Morozov (dropped 1 spot)
9. Langlois/Hay- same
10. Evora/Ladwig- added to list (wasnt in my top 10 before)

dropped from list- Inoue/Baldwin, Castile/Okolski