Nathan Chen

[ice coverage]

In his February 6 blog, Phillip Mills wrote about the privilege that his wife and he have had over the years of working with Nathan.

https://www.phillipmillschoreographer.com/single-post/2017/02/06/A-Privilege​

(Sorry if already posted elsewhere on GS.)

 

[Crossover]

In his February 6 blog, Phillip Mills wrote about the privilege that his wife and he have had over the years of working with Nathan.

https://www.phillipmillschoreographer.com/single-post/2017/02/06/A-Privilege​

(Sorry if already posted elsewhere on GS.)

Thanks for the update.

 

[hippomoomin]

I just watched Nathan's ex at Nationals and for the first time I think he is handsome and even hot
I know he is 17 (more of a boy than a man) and he is 5"6" (not tall, though taller than most Japanese male skaters). I think it has something to do with the masculinity and the modern style he demonstrated in the program. For a 17 yr to show that is truly special. Even after his national win, I still have that super ambitious boy in my head. But his ex completely changed my view on him.
Nathan, please do more modern/mature type of programs and show your masculine style.

 

[Alchamei]

PCS did a very hilarious video about Nathan... Like, very, VERY hilarious.

Let me present you... LORD OF THE QUADS. - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTM1rpnqoTw

 

[StitchMonkey]

I just watched Nathan's ex at Nationals and for the first time I think he is handsome and even hot
I know he is 17 (more of a boy than a man) and he is 5"6" (not tall, though taller than most Japanese male skaters). I think it has something to do with the masculinity and the modern style he demonstrated in the program. For a 17 yr to show that is truly special. Even after his national win, I still have that super ambitious boy in my head. But his ex completely changed my view on him.
Nathan, please do more modern/mature type of programs and show your masculine style.

Here it is for anyone looking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IWrJOhUVl0#t=213.340625

Nathan's exhibition is wonderful! This is what he should be skating to, or at least more like this. As Johnny put it... he is beautiful. I wish Nathan would realize he actually does not need that many quads to win/do well, he really does have far more than just quads in his arsenal - I want to see more of THIS skater. He actually looks like he likes this program which is huge for me.

 

[padme21]

I'm worried about what would happen if Nathan were to beat Hanyu and win 4CC. I feel like that would put him in horrible position at worlds with too much pressure.

 

[lakeforest]

I'm worried about what would happen if Nathan were to beat Hanyu and win 4CC. I feel like that would put him in horrible position at worlds with too much pressure.

I'd have same worry had I not watched his performance at the National. But at National, with so much hype and expectations, he claimed that it's not something he should be afraid of; he came to deliver and prove. From which I see his capability to handle pressure, and his unusual confidence. I believe such confidence is based on his high successful rate of hitting those quads. I have been watching him for years. My impression is if he falls, it is because he is injured or hasn't mastered the jump yet, not because of pressure.

 

[AppleEmperor]

^Agree. I've been impressed with Nathan so much. And a big part of the reason why is that he seems to deal with pressure so well. Raf himself seems to really believe in Nathan's mental game. The way Raf was so chill at US nats spoke volumes.
I know the pressure gets bigger each competition, but Nathan's got a good head on his shoulders. When he's focused, he's gonna do well despite the pressure.

 

[lakeforest]

^Agree. I've been impressed with Nathan so much. And a big part of the reason why is that he seems to deal with pressure so well. Raf himself seems to really believe in Nathan's mental game. The way Raf was so chill at US nats spoke volumes.
I know the pressure gets bigger each competition, but Nathan's got a good head on his shoulders. When he's focused, he's gonna do well despite the pressure.

So true. Raf said he had an adult's brain trapped in a boy's body. He is simply cool, calm, and collected in the competition.

On the other hand, I could help laughing when Hanyu performs his ritual on the ice before he starts his program.

 

[gsyzf]

Here it is for anyone looking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IWrJOhUVl0#t=213.340625

Nathan's exhibition is wonderful! This is what he should be skating to, or at least more like this. As Johnny put it... he is beautiful. I wish Nathan would realize he actually does not need that many quads to win/do well, he really does have far more than just quads in his arsenal - I want to see more of THIS skater. He actually looks like he likes this program which is huge for me.

After 2018, when the veterans retire and the ISU makes major rule change, we will most likely see him attempt fewer quads. Right now, the rules, the judging and the level of competition encourages him to do many quads because quads are absolutely needed to medal today.

 

[gsyzf]

I'm worried about what would happen if Nathan were to beat Hanyu and win 4CC. I feel like that would put him in horrible position at worlds with too much pressure.

I don't think judges will let Nathan beat Yuzuru this season yet. Also, Nathan and Yuzuru have the same peaking pattern. They both peak mid-season (e.g. GPF & national). They even go in and out of hospital at around the same time in the last two seasons. Most skaters' peaking pattern doesn't change significantly even when they try to change their peak. Basically, they both do well or not so well in the same competition. When they skate both equally well or equally poorly in the same competition, judges will still let Yuzuru win, at least this season. Patrick and Javier can beat Yuzuru because they peak at different time from Yuzuru. Patrick usually peaks in the 1st half of the season (i.e. GPs) while Javier peaks in the 2nd half of the season (e.g. WC).

There will be more pressure at WC. I think if he has mastered all of his jumps, he will do well even under pressure. But quads are risky jumps and he is doing many of them. So it's very possible some of his weaker jumps will fail under pressure. But I think he will still do ok overall.

 

[YesWay]

I don't think judges will let Nathan beat Yuzuru this season yet. Also, Nathan and Yuzuru have the same peaking pattern. They both peak mid-season (e.g. GPF & national). They even go in and out of hospital at around the same time in the last two seasons. Most skaters' peaking pattern doesn't change significantly even when they try to change their peak. Basically, they both do well or not so well in the same competition. When they skate both equally well or equally poorly in the same competition, judges will still let Yuzuru win, at least this season. Patrick and Javier can beat Yuzuru because they peak at different time from Yuzuru. Patrick usually peaks in the 1st half of the season (i.e. GPs) while Javier peaks in the 2nd half of the season (e.g. WC).

If Nathan delivers and Yuzuru has a meltdown, then Nathan will score more.

Whoever wins, it will almost certainly be because their skating was better.
Not because the judges "let" them win*

I think Nathan has a "fair" chance of victory... but only if Yuzuru makes mistakes (and that's not beyond the realms of possibility...! And his 4L is not quite there yet). Right now, clean Yuzuru will out-GoE and out-PCS Nathan even if he can't match Nathan's quad count.

Next season could be a very different story, if Nathan can improve enough, and remain consistent. Not an easy task, but he could pull it off...

*(If anyone thinks the scoring is not what it should be, or is determined by judges "letting" certain skaters win... then I hope they can provide evidence for this - by reference to the rules, GoE bullet points, all of the PCS criteria - not just a few cherry picked ones, etc... vs video footage of the actual performances.

Evidence first. Then conclusions/reasons/explanations why it happened, and the burning torches and pitchforks. Not before.

But I won't hold my breath... because it seems to me 99% of people who complain about scoring, or post conspiracy theories about results... are unable to provide any such evidence or justification when challenged, and in most cases can't even demonstrate any real knowledge, experience or understanding of FS scoring at all... -_-)

 

[gsyzf]

But I won't hold my breath... because it seems to me 99% of people who complain about scoring, or post conspiracy theories about results... are unable to provide any such evidence or justification when challenged, and in most cases can't even demonstrate any real knowledge, experience or understanding of FS scoring at all... -_-)

There have been plenty of academic research on the bias of judging and have found statistically significant bias in judging. You can search for that yourself. Since the mechanism of judges selection didn't change, i.e. (Judges are all affiliated with their feds, and the national feds select their own judges), then the bias won't change either. The bias is always there. It's only a question of whether it's significant enough to impact the final placement. Sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't.

 

[YesWay]

There have been plenty of academic research on the bias of judging and have found statistically significant bias in judging. You can search for that yourself. Since the mechanism of judges selection didn't change, i.e. (the national feds select their own judges)

No links. No references. So, in other words, as usual, you've got nothing.

I know that there are some instances where judging has been shown to be wrong.
And I know that judges are human, there will always be variances and the possibility of bias, unconscious or otherwise.

But such proven cases are rare, and do not form a consistent pattern, such that you can claim/assume scores are wrong at every competition, everywhere... that scores are routinely manipulated... that judges "let" skater X win... "strong feds"... "reputation"... blah blah blah.

When someone shows some proper evidence then I'll believe it. But not before.

When someone shows proper evidence for enough cases, that a pattern can be established, then I'll believe there's a pattern. But not before.

Of course, you're free to continue believing... whatever you want to believe... even if you have no evidence to justify your beliefs.

 

[KatGrace1925]

I think we need to stop using the vocabulary "the judges let" or "the judges wont let."

I think it is very possible that Nathan can been Yuzu, if Nathan capitalizes on his momentum and Yuzu falters Nathan can conceivably top the whole field. It will be interesting to see what does happen this weekend but in any case there is no judging conspiracy that can convince me that Nathan can't win 4C.

 

[lakeforest]

I second that. I found it ridiculous to say "the judges won't let Nathan beat Hanyu this season". If Nathan skates like what he did at the Nationals, and Hanyu skates as he did in GPF, Nathan wins. If Hanyu skates both programs clean, then Hanyu wins, fair and square.

 

[gsyzf]

Quoting from another thread. Someone asked in the US ladies' thread why younger skaters need to skate consecutive good programs to get higher scores and someone replied.

Well, because the judges are not only trying to judge the programs how they want to, they also want to mark the programs consistently with the other judges on the panel. How a skater has scored in previous events gives the judge some guidance about the range of appropriate scores.

I think the answer describes the reality quite well. So unless the feds (probably coaches & sponsors too) lobby for a certain skater, that skater's scores will stay the same and not increase even when he/she makes improvement. Most feds will only lobby for a skater when the skater shows he/she can consistently deliver under pressure. This is Nathan's first senior season. Judges won't give him high scores unless USFSA lobby for him. USFSA did push him at national. But he would need to show more good performances for the rest of the season to receive more of USFSA's support. If he proves he can deliver at WC, e.g. medals at WC, then USFSA will lobby for him even more in the Olympic season, and then the gap (GOE & PCS) between him and the veterans will reduce.

 

[sheetz]

Nathan's SP run thru from earlier today.
http://weibo.com/tv/v/EvVruzbn6?fid=1034:1d1cab737037dd9fc128488b64a51973

Looks good except for the 3A (hand down). Seems he's getting more height on his jumps compared to a couple of days ago. Maybe due to lingering jet lag?

 

[gsyzf]

Duplicate

 

[sherlock trollmes]

Thank you for posting his run-through! Somebody on Twitter had said he only did a triple flip in his run-through but that looks like a quad to me He mentioned being tired in an interview I read on Weibo (At least I think that's what he said..sometimes the translation can be a little rough) I think 4cc is generally a tough competition for the US skaters as it's so soon after Nationals. Hoping he can have a good program today!!