Wow, so Nathan's balletic arm movements would be officially elevated to transition status?
But do we know yet how many points in absolute numbers will be detracted or gained depending on GOE...? Will it stay the same range, just divided in more/smaller parts?
I forgot to factor for SoV when doing the mental math, but the current proposal (very much subject to “don’t take anything to the bank just yet”) is that each level of GOE will be worth 10% of BV (up to +/-50%, if I’m understanding everything correctly). So for a fall, that’s an automatic -5 GOE, which is functionally going to destroy BV, and then the one point deduction to total score for the fall itself. The main points of uncertainty are how the actual GOE bullets will be divided, but assuming what was linked is true, the main takeaways, at least to me, are here:
* Quad BV reduction of 10% (this actually does nothing, but they’re doing it anyway, so noted for stupidity’s sake). Does make 10% bonus (if it remains) less significant, since bonus doesn’t include GOEs.
* Fall = automatic -5 GOE; if each GOE level is 10% BV as suggested, that’s 50% BV lost. [emoji32]
* Step out = automatic -3 GOE; per above, automatic 30% BV loss.
** For the 30% and 50% reductions, remember to do what I didn’t and check SoV factoring. Which may also change. But current understanding is that each level of GOE = 10% of BV.
* Backhalf bonus either eliminated or offset in PCS, but it is being targeted. This... I am actually okay with, for a variety of reasons (maybe we can have layout variety again?), but it does mean no more min-maxing with five quads in the backhalf.
The transitions remarks don’t sound too game-changing, as arm movement has always been credited in transitions and PCS generally, even if it hasn’t been explicitly codified as a transitional element until now. I’d argue Nathan’s strong upper body movement is part of why he currently scores well in transitions (he has very good movement there, and upper body movement is a linking/transitional element; simply performing a counter with no upper body movement would not create an actual transition, or at least not an aesthetically pleasing one).
TES seems like it has the potential to be much more “swingy,” as a step out or fall is going to be very costly. ISU... tends to over-correct, so I think this is compensation for “it’s better to complete the rotations and fall on the landing than not even go for a quad” from the past two cycles; in classic ISU fashion, they seem to have moved too far in the other direction. The risk versus reward dynamic looks like it’s being dramatically overhauled... -5 GOE is pretty severe, plus the deduction for the fall itself. So there’s far less incentive to go for a high BV jump if there’s a risk of a step out or fall, given the wider GOE range and what that means for BVs, even with factoring. Doesn’t necessarily mean we’re back to Lysacek games, as quads are still being rewarded, but ... I’m having nightmares of terrible programs edging out a win because the rink monster was hungry and everyone else took 30% or 50% GOE beatings.
I expect that only the ones who struggle a lot with quads will opt for conservative programs...
The BV reduction on quads actually means nothing, especially with backloading being targeted, but even without the focus on backloading... it still means nothing. As long as they’re the highest scoring element, they’re going to be the most performed, and as more and more skaters are taught an increasing number of quads as part of “the basics,” TES will keep rising past PCS. Lowering BV on quads doesn’t change that ratio. Just change the factoring on PCS, since PCS is actually capped, and the actual value of PCS (as in 100 vs. 120) will rise to be comparable with TES and GOEs won’t become another form of PCS.
Without knowing BVs and SoV, too early to draw real conclusions, but I don’t think they’re going to seriously change formulas and make it possible for skaters without a quad to compete, as we had that debate. I think this is more about forcing “clean” quads and slowing the race to the most rotations down, arguably trying to boost quality over sheer quantity.
Which has a large upside for Nathan: yes, this means he’s going to lose his min-maxed layouts with crazy BV. But he can also slow down, hopefully reduce some of the strain on his body and avoid any further injury, and maybe elect to focus on going for high-to-max GOEs on the 4F and another jump (maybe the 4T?). (I say high to max because we don’t know GOE criteria yet and max may be “Summon a unicorn mid-rotation.”) His flip takeoff is a thing of beauty, and while I love Shoma’s musicality, his 4F is... problematic; Nathan’s is unquestionably superior. I’d love to see Nathan’s perfected... and with the removal of a jumping pass, a wider GOE range, and more reward for excelling at an element (and more risk for failing), those of us who wanted to see Nathan emphasize quality over quantity in jumps may get an assist from the scoring system.
There may also be much more freedom in layouts. I can recite pretty much everyone’s optimal one at this point and it’s limiting program composition: you want two quads and a low value triple in the front half, then a bit of a pause until the back, then motor into the next quad segment, etc. With backloading bonuses being removed or targeted in PCS via composition marks... we might have actual creative layouts again, not just Lactic Acid Legs competitions! That, I think, is a huge boon for Nathan, as he can still perform a variety of quads, but he doesn’t have to save them all for the backload bonus.
Nathan's current strategy of quantity over quality... very risky... and considering that he doesn't get particularly high GOE on his triples... but since he does them so effortlessly, improving on that
shouldn't be too difficult for him, I would think. His triples always crack me up, seriously, they look so easy, he's just whirling around like a colibri
.
... I need to look at his triples other than the axel, but mastery doesn’t always carry over when you add rotations. [emoji23] And if a skater is used to doing four rotations and/or training a quad but does a triple, you may see them start releasing their body into landing position while way off the ground, because they’re expecting to be much lower after rotation (as if they’d done a quad) ... god help us if we live to see quints.
Phew, now I'm really worried for next season...
For some reason I don't see team Nathan changing their strategy at all...
I... don’t think this is all that bad. Or, rather, it’s as bad as Nathan wants it to be? I think we can safely assume that winning off BV is ... not going to work; too many nips and tucks to scoring that, while not necessarily game-changing in isolation, eat into the kind of min-maxed free programs he was known for and that frankly are hell on the body. I think his skating skills could use some refinement, and who knows what’s possible in terms of new programs now, and as always, that 3A consistency just has to happen — but he can pick up more points in GOEs than he could have under the current system and ideally with less risk of injury. He doesn’t need every single quad any longer — and he’s better off getting the highest GOEs possible on a few than going for the full arsenal. He won’t be expected or encouraged to backload, so ideally his programs can be structured to make full use of his innate musicality and to blend his jumping passes in more fully with richer choreo, rather than turning the backhalf into a more frenzied quad-sprint. And, ideally, this means less injury, fewer falls in training, and an overall happier Nathan.
That... actually sounds really exciting to me. My fear has always been that as long as the only route to winning was by amping BV, Nathan might burn himself out, burn his body out, or fail to shore up some of his weaknesses. While I don’t love everything I’ve read about the scoring changes, I think they could work very well for Nathan, at least in terms of allowing him to really polish some stronger points while shoring up his slightly weaker ones. If he goes in to next season like it’s this one, however, then... that’s an entirely different issue. But considering he’s going to be balancing school and skating, this wouldn’t be a bad time to focus on “fundamentals” (skating skills), refining one or two jumps rather than grinding them all, etc.
Whenever I see it, a small part of me dies inside...:sad4:
Oh wow... just on jumps or on all technical elements?
