Not So Early Predictions

[Winnipeg]

Since the last predictions thread was started some time ago and labelled 'early', I thought we could renew this thread by asking if your thoughts have changed now that the GP season is over.....................IMO:

MEN (w/o Sandu.....if Sandu shows up and is prepared, he'll bump Andreev)
Buttle - iffy
Chan
Andreev

Pairs
DD for sure
L and H iffy
D and B

Ladies
Rochetee followed by whoever falls the least

Dance
VM for sure
Not sure about the rest.

 

[nadster]

My predictions for top 6:

Men: ( assuming no Sandhu)

1. Buttle -tends to skate well at Canadians
2. Chan - since junior level , doesn't tend to skate his best at Canadians. When he won junior men at Canadians he fell 3 times in the long and won via PCS.
3. Fedor - As long as he skates like he did in challenges.
4. Mabee - Will skate better than he did on GP ( Has never been a good at GP's) but doesn't have the PCS to catch the first three.
5. Reynolds - SC will definitely want him on the national team.
6. Chipheur

Biggest loser Sawyer. Unless he lands a clean triple axel , SC will do everything to keep him off the national team.

Women

1. Joannie R. - no brainer
2. Mira - very consistent. With Canadians in her hometown likelihood of getting dinged for underrotations is unlikely.
3. Hawker - not great but more consistent than rest of field.
4. Lacoste - most likely our JW lady
5. Phaneuf -
6. Smziett - after disappointing JGP season , coming on strong

Dance

1. Virtue/Moir - no brainer
2. McCurdy/Coreno
3. Weaver/Poje
4. Crone/Poirier -
5. Karam - O'Keefe
6. Lenko/Islam - usually weak on CD's and that will keep them down


Pairs

1. Dube/Davison
2. Duhamel/Buntin - forget Skate Canada , increased time together will push them forward
3. Langlois/Hay - she is usually weak at nationals
4. Kirkland/Radford - will get SC spot next year
5. Moscovitches
6. Velenosi/Fernandez - made JGPF this year

Junior Worlds Team predictions

Dance: Crone/Poirier , Lenko/Islam , Karen Routhier / Eric Saucke-Lacelle
Men : Reynolds , Jeremy Ten , Elladj Balde
Ladies ; Amelie Lacoste
Pairs : Amanda Velenosi / Mark Fernandez , whoever wins junior pairs( too difficult for me to call)

 

[Tramp]

Buttle Mabee Chan
Rochette.Hawker Leung
Langois Hay, Dand D, Buntin Duhamel
Moir Virtue ,Crone Poirier ,Dougherty Girard

Balde ,Poirier
???????????Ladies anyones guess!!
Monica and mike, ?????
Karen and Eric,Hill Karis,Justin Krista,

 

[skatingfan04]

Thanks for picking up where my thread left off, Winnipeg. I'll predict my top six, and who'll make the Jr/Sr world team.

Sr. Men (w/o Sandhu)
Buttle
Chan (I think that if Buttle falls enough, Chan could pass him)
Mabee (he could beat Chan)
Sawyer (either of the two could take bronze, but my money's on Chris)
Andreev (seems to be back better that ever. If he has his jumping legs that day, he could place this high)
Chipeur/Russell/Reynolds (whoever skates cleaner or does the most big tricks)

Sr. Ladies
Joannie (no brainer. If she really tanks she could end up second, but I doubt it)\
Leung
Hawker (she's too inconsistant, but on a good day she could beat Leung)
Phaneuf (not enough consistancy on the triples to be higher)
Dube/Sampson (whoever's cleaner that day)

Sr. Pairs
Dube/Davison (no brainer)
Langlois/Hay
Duhamel/Buntin ( they don't look bad for a new team)
Kirkland/Radford
Moscovitch/Moscovich
Brodeur/Mattatal or Velenosi/Fernandez

Sr. Dance
Virtue/Moir (could win without skates )
Weaver/Poje (love their new programs)
Crone/Poirier (perhaps wishful thinking, but they wouldn't be the first young team to make a splash)
McCurdey/Coreno
Lenko/Islam (I wish they would be higher, but I doubt it; CD will hurt them)
Karam/O'Keefe or Senft/Hill

World Team: Rochette, Leung, Buttle, Chan, D/D, L/H, D/B, V/M, W/P, C/P
Jr. World Team: Crone/Poirier, Lenko/Islam, Ralph/Hill, Velenosi/Fernandez, Jones/Jackson or Lawrence/Sweigers, Balde, Ten, Reynolds(still age eligable?),?

 

[nadster]

Jr. World Team: Crone/Poirier, Lenko/Islam, Ralph/Hill, Velenosi/Fernandez, Jones/Jackson or Lawrence/Sweigers, Balde, Ten, Reynolds(still age eligable?),?

Ralph/Hill are unlikely to win junior dance as they didn't even win the eastern challenge. Although they have great programs their struggles with the CD will keep them from winning IMO. That is why I predict Karen Routhier / Eric Saucke-Lacelle will win and they did beat Asher/Hill in the challenges.

Jr. Pairs: Will be a three way battle between Jones/Jackson or Lawrence/Sweigers and Pisotta/Stewart for the junior pairs title.

Jr. Ladies: also a crapshoot. Only sure thing is that the winner will not go to junior worlds. They will choose one the the seniors instead. Look at Rika Inoda, Crawford McKenzie , Kirsten-Moore Towers and Acacia Hill as contenders with Rika the slight favourite to win ( she seems the most consistent right now)

Jr. Men: Pick Balde to win and Poirier could finish 2nd. Who knows, Poirier could do JGP in men and GP in dance next season.

 

[fumie_fumie]

Sr. Men (w/o Sandhu)
Buttle
Chan (I think that if Buttle falls enough, Chan could pass him) - I agree
Mabee (he could beat Chan) - I agree
Sawyer (either of the two could take bronze, but my money's on Chris) - I agree
Reynolds (he's got big tricks and his in-between elements are getting better)
Andreev (He has to have more competitions under his belt to convince me that he is serious)
Chipeur(His NHK showing concerns me a bit)

skatingfan04 you put words into my mouth.

I wouldn't dare to make a prediction with Sandhu in the game, though. Isn't that an oxymoron "Sandhu" and "Prediction"?

 

[skatingfan04]

Ralph/Hill are unlikely to win junior dance as they didn't even win the eastern challenge. Although they have great programs their struggles with the CD will keep them from winning IMO. That is why I predict Karen Routhier / Eric Saucke-Lacelle will win and they did beat Asher/Hill in the challenges.

Jr. Pairs: Will be a three way battle between Jones/Jackson or Lawrence/Sweigers and Pisotta/Stewart for the junior pairs title.

Jr. Ladies: also a crapshoot. Only sure thing is that the winner will not go to junior worlds. They will choose one the the seniors instead. Look at Rika Inoda, Crawford McKenzie , Kirsten-Moore Towers and Acacia Hill as contenders with Rika the slight favourite to win ( she seems the most consistent right now)

Jr. Men: Pick Balde to win and Poirier could finish 2nd. Who knows, Poirier could do JGP in men and GP in dance next season.

To be honest, I didn't think of Routhier & Saucke-Lacelle. I say either them or Ralph/Hill for the third spot, since the other two teams medalled on the JGP circuit twice each, made the JGP final, and are both still age eligable. I wonder, though, about Poirier in the men's event. I agree, he may medal, but will Skate Canada send him to JR worlds in singles if he's already there for dance? I do think that he'll likely do SGP in dance and JGP in singles next season as u mentioned above.

I wouldn't dare to make a prediction with Sandhu in the game, though. Isn't that an oxymoron "Sandhu" and "Prediction"?

So true, fumie_fumie.

 

[Ladskater]

My predictions for top 6:

Men: ( assuming no Sandhu)

1. Buttle -tends to skate well at Canadians
2. Chan - since junior level , doesn't tend to skate his best at Canadians. When he won junior men at Canadians he fell 3 times in the long and won via PCS.
3. Fedor - As long as he skates like he did in challenges.
4. Mabee - Will skate better than he did on GP ( Has never been a good at GP's) but doesn't have the PCS to catch the first three.
5. Reynolds - SC will definitely want him on the national team.
6. Chipheur

Biggest loser Sawyer. Unless he lands a clean triple axel , SC will do everything to keep him off the national team.

Women

1. Joannie R. - no brainer
2. Mira - very consistent. With Canadians in her hometown likelihood of getting dinged for underrotations is unlikely.
3. Hawker - not great but more consistent than rest of field.
4. Lacoste - most likely our JW lady
5. Phaneuf -
6. Smziett - after disappointing JGP season , coming on strong

Dance

1. Virtue/Moir - no brainer
2. McCurdy/Coreno
3. Weaver/Poje
4. Crone/Poirier -
5. Karam - O'Keefe
6. Lenko/Islam - usually weak on CD's and that will keep them down


Pairs

1. Dube/Davison
2. Duhamel/Buntin - forget Skate Canada , increased time together will push them forward
3. Langlois/Hay - she is usually weak at nationals
4. Kirkland/Radford - will get SC spot next year
5. Moscovitches
6. Velenosi/Fernandez - made JGPF this year

Junior Worlds Team predictions

Dance: Crone/Poirier , Lenko/Islam , Karen Routhier / Eric Saucke-Lacelle
Men : Reynolds , Jeremy Ten , Elladj Balde
Ladies ; Amelie Lacoste
Pairs : Amanda Velenosi / Mark Fernandez , whoever wins junior pairs( too difficult for me to call)

I pretty much agree with your predictions; except I am hoping a better outcome for Shawn Sawyer. He is such a gifted skater. It's always the way the more flexible the skater the more challenging the big jumps are for them. Oh well, I wish Shawn the best.

 

[nadster]

I wonder, though, about Poirier in the men's event. I agree, he may medal, but will Skate Canada send him to JR worlds in singles if he's already there for dance? I do think that he'll likely do SGP in dance and JGP in singles next season as u mentioned above.

I don't think Poirier will make the JW World team this year, Among the senior men Reynolds, Ten and Martinez are able to go to JW. Reynolds is a sure fire bet ( he will at least ensure the 16 JGP slots next year barring a total disaster). Ten has medalled on the JGP this year and last so he is likely to get the 2nd slot. Balde ( competing in juniors at nationals this year)has a triple axel that is reasonably consistent and I think that will get him the third spot.

 

[fumie_fumie]

I pretty much agree with your predictions; except I am hoping a better outcome for Shawn Sawyer. He is such a gifted skater. It's always the way the more flexible the skater the more challenging the big jumps are for them. Oh well, I wish Shawn the best.

I love Shawn as well and particularly his LP for this season, but I think the field this year is just too strong for him. I think Skate Canada will go for somebody with flawless, consistent 3A (like Patrick) over Shawn. Having the number of spots reduced to 2 doesn't really help Shawn either. Will he be able to fix his 2-footed landing or singling of his 3As by the Nationals? The other alternative for him maybe is to change the jump layout: right after second half of his second LP, he has 3loop - 3 loop sequence. If he can manage to change it to combinations, it might boost his TES marks a bit. But who knows? Only he can answer the question.

 

[rain]

Virtue/Moir (could win without skates )

This made me laugh out loud. So true. So I'll start with dance:

Virtue/Moir
Weaver/Poje - they haven't been doing as well this year as might have been predicted, but they did make that big move up to third last season.
McCurdy/Coreno - third is tough to predict and could go a number of ways I think.

Pairs:

Dube/Davison - they'll have to skate really poorly to loose.
Langlois/Hay - they've skated surprisingly well this season, even when they didn't get the respect from the judges.
Duhamel/Buntin - third, again could go a few ways. This team is really, really new still, but I think they will squeak in for third.

Ladies:

Rochette - obviously
Leung/Hawker in the next two spots in some order. I think it likely Leung will take second, though I'd really like it to be Hawker - for a change of pace, but also because Hawker has worked long and hard for this

Men:

Buttle - though for the first time I don't feel like that's a foregone conclusion, but he usually skates well at nationals and I think they'll want him leading the Canadian men's team
Chan - No way will he not be going to worlds. With 2010 around the corner Skate Canada wants him to get as much experience and exposure as possible. Also, on a good day for him he can outskate Buttle, IMO
Once again third is tough to predict - perhaps Andreev, who actually had a good quad at one point in his career, and lots of presence. There's also Mabee, who's been skating well.

I'm assuming Sandhu won't be skating

 

[redhotcoach]

If Paul Poirier does as well in singles as he should - it will perhaps put the squeeze on Skate Canada to send him to a JGP next season. He was only named as an alternate this year to appease his camp....SC sees Paul as a dancer not a freeskater (not that they probably don't respect his tremendous jumping talent but...) They don;t want anything to dilute the high opinion that the ISU is developing over the C & P dance team. Politics still being what they are in the figure skating world - if the ISU sees Paul as a freeskater, it might cause 'favourable' feelings to switch to the next dance team in line......With 2010 coming up fast, and 2014 even faster - C & P could be one of our Canadian teams and potential dance medalists.

Strange game figure skating...it's okay for pair skaters to do singles as well, but the frown is on for high level dancers to continue to do well in singles.....hmmmm

 

[skatingfan04]

If Paul Poirier does as well in singles as he should - it will perhaps put the squeeze on Skate Canada to send him to a JGP next season. He was only named as an alternate this year to appease his camp....SC sees Paul as a dancer not a freeskater (not that they probably don't respect his tremendous jumping talent but...) They don;t want anything to dilute the high opinion that the ISU is developing over the C & P dance team. Politics still being what they are in the figure skating world - if the ISU sees Paul as a freeskater, it might cause 'favourable' feelings to switch to the next dance team in line......With 2010 coming up fast, and 2014 even faster - C & P could be one of our Canadian teams and potential dance medalists.

Strange game figure skating...it's okay for pair skaters to do singles as well, but the frown is on for high level dancers to continue to do well in singles.....hmmmm

the whole dancer/free skater thing is pretty unique to them. I can't think of another dance team in the international rankings, now or before, that competed in freesake as well. She's not that highly ranked nationally, so this likely won't be a problem for her yet, but he is, so he might wind up getting assigned to JGP's next season. I don't see, however, how this will affect the judging in dance. Unless the judges feel that doing both disciplines means that he isn't puuting enough effort into one or the other, which is completely rediculous IMO. There is a whole different pannel that judges dance, so I hope this doesn't affect them. I applaud both of them. Competing in two disciplines that do not have common elements save the footwork, like pairs and singles do, must be quite difficult, and they do it well. I agree that they will be Olympic team contenders in 2010 and even possible medal contenders come 2014.

 

[nadster]

Paul Poirier

I think that SC is more concerned about him spreading his talents too thin especially with the great dance results he is getting internationally even so far there has been no evidence suggesting that.

Also I don't think Paul did any summer comps( certainly not the Thornhill one in his section) in junior men as he was concentrating his efforts on the dance at that time. And Skate Canada uses the summer competitions as a major method of handing out assignments. Paul finished third in novice nationals last year, an achievement that would put him on the short list but not one that would give him a JGP right off the bat.

Obviously making a splash in Lake Placid created the buzz ( Crone/Poirier's names were lit up in lights on USFSA's site on the Lake Placid report) that they needed to help them do so well on the JGP this year.

I am 100% sure Paul will be on the JGP in men's next year. Jeremy Ten , Ian Martinez and Jean-Simon LEGARE all age out after this year. And Paul beat Rogozine( who got 2 JGPs this year) quite handily at Central Ontario sectionals. He beat Rogozine easily at the Octoberfest competition as well. Paul certainly makes the criteria for men competing at junior events and even has the triple-triple that Skate Canada insists on for Junior World selection.

The only question is if Crone/Poirier will continue to do JGP in dance next year or will they go to do senior GPs.

 

[skatingfan04]

I think that SC is more concerned about him spreading his talents too thin especially with the great dance results he is getting internationally even so far there has been no evidence suggesting that.

Also I don't think Paul did any summer comps( certainly not the Thornhill one in his section) in junior men as he was concentrating his efforts on the dance at that time. And Skate Canada uses the summer competitions as a major method of handing out assignments. Paul finished third in novice nationals last year, an achievement that would put him on the short list but not one that would give him a JGP right off the bat.

Obviously making a splash in Lake Placid created the buzz ( Crone/Poirier's names were lit up in lights on USFSA's site on the Lake Placid report) that they needed to help them do so well on the JGP this year.

I am 100% sure Paul will be on the JGP in men's next year. Jeremy Ten , Ian Martinez and Jean-Simon LEGARE all age out after this year. And Paul beat Rogozine( who got 2 JGPs this year) quite handily at Central Ontario sectionals. He beat Rogozine easily at the Octoberfest competition as well. Paul certainly makes the criteria for men competing at junior events and even has the triple-triple that Skate Canada insists on for Junior World selection.

The only question is if Crone/Poirier will continue to do JGP in dance next year or will they go to do senior GPs.

I know that Poirier didn't compete in Thornhill. He missed Challenge because he was competing at the JGP Final. I really do think that C/P will finish in the top 5 in seniors, so that would probably mean GP assignments, unless they do with them what they did with Virtue/Moir back in 05/06. If they do, I doubt Poirier will compete two JGP events. If C/P go to the senior GP ranks, I'd put him in two events.

 

[Kypma]

I know that Poirier didn't compete in Thornhill. He missed Challenge because he was competing at the JGP Final. I really do think that C/P will finish in the top 5 in seniors, so that would probably mean GP assignments, unless they do with them what they did with Virtue/Moir back in 05/06. If they do, I doubt Poirier will compete two JGP events. If C/P go to the senior GP ranks, I'd put him in two events.

Pardon my ignorance, but what DID Virtue and Moir do in 05/06? I know the won the Junior Worlds in 2006 but... I don't see the link -- sorry. I'm not trying to offend you, just trying to understand...

Kypma

PS On the other hand, I don't see what would be wrong for Paul to do the JGP in singles and the GP in dance... Jessica Dube did both pairs and singles in her JPG events, even won medals in both, and that never hurt her, so I guess I'm part of those who don't se the problem for Paul to do both events.

 

[laceup]

Paul didn't do Thornhill this summer because he was in Quebec at their summer competition. He won the short but had a major melt down in the long. I believe he should get JGP in singles if he places well enough at Nationals (which he should). Doing both disciplines hasn't hurt him this far and at 16 years old, he's doing fantastic!!!

 

[nadster]

Thanks laceup for telling me about the Quebec summer competition one as the results for that competition have been removed from the Quebec sectional site. They only list the results from the fall competition onwards.

It is too bad Paul had a meltdown in the long there because that probably is the reason he didn't get JGP assignments this year. I am sure he will get them next year especially with the 2 big wins ( both by over 10 points and one by over 20) he has had over Rogozine this year. He might even get 2 assignments off the bat if lucky.

And, BTW I have seen Paul skate both dance and singles and find him amazing.

 

[laceup]

Nadster, glad I could help you out as you are very informative to the rest of us:agree:

 

[skatingfan04]

Pardon my ignorance, but what DID Virtue and Moir do in 05/06? I know the won the Junior Worlds in 2006 but... I don't see the link -- sorry. I'm not trying to offend you, just trying to understand...

Kypma

PS On the other hand, I don't see what would be wrong for Paul to do the JGP in singles and the GP in dance... Jessica Dube did both pairs and singles in her JPG events, even won medals in both, and that never hurt her, so I guess I'm part of those who don't se the problem for Paul to do both events.

No offence taken, Kympa. What I meant was that Virtue/Moir placed 4th at the 2005 Canadian nationals as seniors. Normally, this would have gotten them at least one senior grand prix assignment. Instead, Skate Canada decided, or they decided, im not sure, to compete at the junior grand prix level the next season and not do senior events. The point that I was trying to make was that even if crone/Poirier finish within the top five in seniors this year, there's a chance that they could still skip seniors and to JGP events next season. And I don't see a problem with Paul doing both singles and dance and the JGP and/or GP circuit. I just wonder if skate canada will have an issue sending him to compete 4 times in a season. I believe that Dube did only one JGP event in singles the year that she competed both events internationally,a dnshe did a wonderful job. Hopefully Poirier can do the same. I do hope that if he deserves two JGP assignments, the fact that he'd be competing in dance as well won't keep him from getting both. People have said that he's quite a strong jumper, but unfortunately i've never seen him or Crone live in singles or dance, and I've never seen any of his singles performances. I've seen many of their dance ones, and I think they're wonderful. So expressive, and they capture the character of the music. I loke their choreography, too. If these two can do two disciplines so well at such young ages, more power to them.