Novice ladies nosedive?

[ChrisH]

The winning score, 110.38, for the novice ladies competition would've been the 8th highest score in 2007 and 2006.

2008
Rank Name Club Points SP FS
1 Marissa Secundy Broadmoor SC 110.38 2 1
2 Sophia Lamay Texas Gulf Coast FSC 108.41 1 4
3 Felicia Zhang SC of New York 106.02 4 2
4 Agnes Zawadzki DuPage FSC 104.18 6 3
5 Song King All Year FSC 103.01 5 6
6 Kendall Wyckoff Vermont SC 98.51 10 5
7 Gretchen Donlan SC of Boston 95.56 3 9
8 Holly Alexander Univ of Delaware FSC 95.49 8 7
9 Victoria Hecht Los Angeles FSC 88.54 9 10
10 Samiera Abou-Nasr Yellowstone Valley FSC 87.60 12 8
11 Stephanie Rigley All Year FSC 86.40 7 12
12 Christina Gao Northern Kentucky SC 83.75 11 11

2007
Rank Name Total Points SP FS
1 Angela Maxwell 131.65 2 2
2 Kristine Musademba 129.25 5 1
3 Carolyn-Ann Alba 124.75 1 4
4 Deedee Leng 124.51 9 3
5 Ellie Kawamura 115.65 3 5
6 Caroline Ferris 115.39 4 6
7 Ksenia Makarova 112.59 7 7
8 Victoria Hecht 109.07 8 8
9 Danielle Seitz 104.54 6 9
10 Emily Young 95.59 10 10
11 Molly Aaron 94.70 11 11
12 Masha Leonov 86.95 12 12

2006
Rank Name Total Points SP FS
1 Rhiana Brammeier 138.23 1 1
2 Blake Rosenthal 127.16 5 2
3 Brittney Rizo 124.27 4 3
4 Michaelee Scarincio 121.30 2 6
5 Victoria Rackohn 121.05 3 4
6 Alexe Gilles 114.25 9 5
7 Kelcie Lee 111.05 6 7
8 Chrissy Hughes 102.43 10 8
9 Laney Diggs 99.04 7 11
10 Hilary Ho 98.69 8 10
11 Angela Maxwell 96.08 12 9
12 Debbie Knubley 86.56 11 12

2005- 6.0 system

That is a huge dropoff. Am I missing something like major program changes? If not, what happened?

I have several theories, but my pet peeve is the underrotation rule especially since it has been heavily enforced this season.

If the age rule is meant to reduce the chances of injuries, it's inconsistent with the way the CoP aggressively pushes toward triple jumps.

Actually it doesn't. The harsh penalties for underrotated jumps means that it's much more beneficial to the scores to do doubles if you don't quite have the triples yet. At the lower levels, I'm seeing far fewer triple attempts at intermediate and novice levels than was the case a few years ago, and fewer double axels in juvenile and intermediate.

Is the underrotation rule the reason for the nosedive in scores? I think it has created a wide and deep chasm between jump levels with jagged rocks below. Has the underrotation rule improved the quality of skating and reduced injuries? Both, either one or the other, or none of the above?

 

[Tinymavy15]

seems like great skaters come in bunches. marai, caroline, racheal etc alll are coming up at the same time.... were all juniors last year and probably novice the year before. Now there is nobody to fill thier shoes like there was nobody to fill the void left by kwan, cohen and slutskya 2 years ago. but believe me, it will soon be filled!

 

[skatergirl45]

The fact is is that novice ladies simply are not trying many of the harder jumps that novices used to attempt a few years ago. They are using PCS and level four spins, spirals, and footwork that they can barely do to keep them up in the standings.
In my region I know of many "competitive" novices with only a double axel. Is this right? NO! Remember when Kimmie had her triple lutz as a novice? Now some of the Junior medaists do not have one!
Sorry, I have been holding this rant in for a long time.

 

[chuckm]

I noticed that there was a definite decrease in score inflation at the Junior and Novice levels this season, compared with other seasons. I don't think these skaters are less skilled than those in previous seasons, I just think there was a conscious effort on the part of the USFS and the judges to keep the scores more realistic.

That didn't carry over to the Senior skaters, though.

 

[oleada]

If attempting less triples at the novice level means that they are working on fully rotating their jumps and taking of from the right edge, then I don't think that not having triples as a novice is a big problem. It will serve them in the long run, imo.

 

[dutchherder]

^And perhaps there will be fewer hip injuries?

 

[Mathman]

Did Deedee Leng skate in juniors this year? How did she do?

 

[mskater93]

Deedee placed 5th at Mids. She was very nervous and made some uncharacteristic mistakes, but still just missed that last spot for Nationals. Too bad, because the skater who "got" that last spot from Mids had a horrible time, including FIVE deductions in her long. She'll be back, though!

 

[gsrossano]

There was a change in the program component factors for the Novice Ladies and Novice Pairs events this season. For the Novice Ladies the PC factors changed in both SP and FS. This reduces the PCS scores substantially compared to previous years. So you cannot compare total scores from this Nationals to previous Nationals.

TES scores for the last 3 years are within expected variations. So also are Base Values and GoEs. For program components you would have to compare the unfactored values. When you compare PC averages from the past three Nationals they are within expected variations.

So no, Novice ladies have not nosedived.

 

[ChrisH]

I noticed that there was a definite decrease in score inflation at the Junior and Novice levels this season, compared with other seasons. I don't think these skaters are less skilled than those in previous seasons, I just think there was a conscious effort on the part of the USFS and the judges to keep the scores more realistic.

That didn't carry over to the Senior skaters, though.

I'd agree with this the most if you're also thinking that in previous years clearly underrotated (and wrong edge) jumps weren't downgraded and given negative GoEs. I prefer assuming that the novice ladies are as skilled or almost as skilled as in previous years.

gsrossano pointed out that the program component factors have changed. Indeed, they went down from 0.9 and 1.80 to 0.75 and 1.50. Marissa Secundy's SP PCS would've been 18.74 instead of 15.62 and her FS PCS would've been 41.69 instead 34.74 of in 2007 and 2006. Her then overall score of 120.45 instead of 110.38 would've put her in 5th place in 2007 and 6th in 2006. That's big, but it doesn't fully explain what has happened.

So there was tougher scoring in the TES and PCS this year than in previous Nationals. Still, that doesn't account for the reduction in triples attempted that gkelly pointed out. I wonder if there will be a long term trend of less triples attempted by novice ladies. Perhaps that means there are less injuries in the novice division and below, but what will happen to the quality of triples and injuries in the higher divisions as these ladies mature?

It seemed that the junior ladies had too many falls (until we got to the best skaters). The senior ladies, though, had an outstanding Nationals.

 

[Mystic]

seems like great skaters come in bunches. marai, caroline, racheal etc alll are coming up at the same time.... were all juniors last year and probably novice the year before. Now there is nobody to fill thier shoes like there was nobody to fill the void left by kwan, cohen and slutskya 2 years ago. but believe me, it will soon be filled!

I disagree both Marissa Secunde and Junior Champion Alexe Gilles will be forces to reckon with in the future, while they may not be part of a "bunch" they are still very talented young ladies who will come into their own in the next year or two.

 

[gsrossano]

So there was tougher scoring in the TES and PCS this year than in previous Nationals.

I partially agree with this. If you compare the FS results details side by side for 2006, 2007 and 2008, the TES scores seem pretty much the same to me. They are a little higher in 2007 (maybe 4 points), but 2006 and 2008 are close.

More obvious is that the PC scores are lower. And more interestingly to me they are mainly lower for the higher skaters. The last place scores in the FS are around 4.0 all three years. But for the first place skater they go from the mid 5s in 2006, the low 5s and upper 4s in 2007 and the mid to upper 4s in 2008. So the biggest change is that the spread in PC scores from top to bottom has gotten much smaller. In 2006 the average spread in PC marks was about 1.5 points, but in 2008 it is about 0.9 points.

Why? Is it something the skaters are doing, or something the judges are doing?

 

[ChrisH]

... the TES scores seem pretty much the same to me. They are a little higher in 2007 (maybe 4 points), but 2006 and 2008 are close.

... In 2006 the average spread in PC marks was about 1.5 points, but in 2008 it is about 0.9 points.

Why? Is it something the skaters are doing, or something the judges are doing?

This may be an indication:

Though her "Scheherazade" free skate lacked a single triple jump, Felicia Zhang (SC of New York) moved up from fourth in the short program to finish second in the free skate and claim the bronze medal. Zhang landed seven clean doubles and posted the second-best program components score (35.58) in the segment.

Her skating philosophy is simple.

"Stay within rules. Don't try to find loopholes or else [the judges] will deduct you, and deduct you hard.," Zhang said.

There were zero wrong edge penalties. The penalty for flutzing and lipping doubles is tiny and yet apparently the novices took those penalties seriously. There were still downgraded jumps, however. The base value of triples is much higher than doubles, so the skaters still risk it although perhaps less so than previously.
http://www.usfigureskating.org/content/events/200708/uschamps/protocols/noviceladies-protocols.pdf

Perhaps the novice ladies focused more on "correct" technique at the expense of triples and presentation skills as a result of the changed scoring.