Now that it's official, can Michelle win the OGM?

[FreeKatie]

THE FOLLOWING IS A HOPE, NOT A PREDICTION

My hope is that the winner will be clear cut, therefore leaving the judges no choice but to award the gold to her. In other words, if you didn't think she was the best, you must have been smoking something, no matter where you're from.


But it won't be as big a hope if that person happens to be Irina.

But then what will posters gripe about for the next four years?

 

[Mathman]

Oceanguy, that's so cool that you get to go to the Games! I hope you'll have the time to give us a first hand report. Go Michelle!

MM

 

[Dee4707]

I can't wait untill I leave on February 17. AB :yes:

Oceanguy, have a wonderful time. The other evening on the Travel channel they were doing the show in Turino and it looks beautiful. I second what Math said, we hope you can give us some reports, anything, everything.

Dee

 

[slutskayafan21]

The original question was- 'CAN" she win the OGM (not 'WILL she win the OGM)? The answer is 'yes'. At this point it is a 'yes' for a lot of ladies, and I like Michelle's chances much better than for a lot of the others.

Vash

So you like the chances of Kwan doing a performance of her life after missing almost the entire year with an injury, as having just over a month of semi-healthy training, and having had no competitions for a year; and in addition to that having Slutskaya and Cohen both bomb their programs(which MUST happen for Kwan to win IMO)and atleast 2 or 3 others have some minor errors. Yes I like the chances of that too.

 

[candy]

The Olympics are just an award-giving ceremony for the already annointed OGM!

Well history proved otherwise since they eliminated figures:

1992 -- they were supposed to annoint Midori Ito but gave it to Kristi Yamaguchi
1994 -- they were supposed to annoint Kurt Browning but gave it to Alexei Urmanov
1998 -- they were supposed to annoint Michelle Kwan but gave it to Tara Lipinski
1998 -- they were supposed to annoint Elvis Stojko but gave it to Illia Kulik
2002 -- they were supposed to annoint Michelle Kwan but gave it to Sarah Hughes.

Actual annointments:

1992 -- Viktor Petrenko
1994 -- Oksana Baiul
2002 -- Alexei Yagudin

So how's that for award ceremonies?

 

[slutskayafan21]

Maybe but I think the US judge will be marking Cohen higher who happens to be more of a favorite for this event. Kwan should be battling it out for a bronze but didn't you realize this? Slutskaya is numero uno for this event. Not even a hunch.

Canada will have Joannie in 4th while all the other judges have her in 7th.

Italy will have Kostner in 1st or 2nd depending. and with Slutskaya and Kwan in 2nd and 3rd to rub it in on the podium.

The Europeans do not want an Asian to win this. It is obvious. Those poor Japanese girls have lost it right now except it is possible that there could be a spiteful vote for Shizuka.

Hungary, Russia, Slovakia, Ukraine have better ties with each other than any other group, imo. If they make the cut, that's 4 votes for Irina. Just one more will do it and it can come from anywhere.

Conspiracy theories? - NONE. Cutural bias theories? some. Nationality theories? all over the place.

Teenybopper Win? Well, one never know do one. Go Kimmie.

Joe

I pretty much agree with all of that. I did not say the U.S judge would score Kwan highest, just higher than Slutskaya though, I agree Cohen will take the biggest marks from the U.S judge. The Japanese women probably wont get a fair shake either like you said.

 

[rob43]

They did not want to appoint Stojko in '98. If they had they could have put him first in the SP which they didn't. If Eldredge had stood up he might have taken silver.

I do think they wanted to gift Plushy in 02 but weren't given the chance (and I was actually surprised he placed so high in the SP with a fall.) Ditto B/S in '98 - though I was fine with them in '02.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

They did not want to appoint Stojko in '98. If they had they could have put him first in the SP which they didn't. If Eldredge had stood up he might have taken silver.

I do think they wanted to gift Plushy in 02 but weren't given the chance (and I was actually surprised he placed so high in the SP with a fall.) Ditto B/S in '98 - though I was fine with them in '02.

Mischin must have gotten to the judges. Michael Weiss was much much better in the SP in 2002. In fact, so many of the boys were better than Plushy. But that's the way it is in the 6.0 system. No problem with Yags, it was his great competition.

Joe

 

[Vash01]

Mischin must have gotten to the judges. Michael Weiss was much much better in the SP in 2002. In fact, so many of the boys were better than Plushy. But that's the way it is in the 6.0 system. No problem with Yags, it was his great competition.

Joe

The reason Weiss did not score well in the SP in 2002 was that he was the first skater to take the ice in the entire competition. That is about as bad a skating order as it gets. It would have taken an absolutely great skate to score well enough to be in the top six. Maria Butyrskaya did in 1998 (although she could not medal after the LP). That was an exception.

You said so many boys were better than Plushy. Which ones did you mean? Honda and Goebel skated better than Plushy (without mistakes) and they placed higher than him. Everyone else made mistakes, including Abt, although he did not fall. IIRC Davydov skated clean but he was nowhere close to Plushenko in skills. Except for the fall on the quad Plushenko skated very well in the SP. Fourth place was just right for him.

Vash

 

[antmanb]

They did not want to appoint Stojko in '98. If they had they could have put him first in the SP which they didn't. If Eldredge had stood up he might have taken silver.

I do think they wanted to gift Plushy in 02 but weren't given the chance (and I was actually surprised he placed so high in the SP with a fall.) Ditto B/S in '98 - though I was fine with them in '02.

Remind me again who the pairs were in 1998?

From memory after the short i think it was:
1. Kazakova/Dmetriev
2. B&S
3. Woetzel & Steuer
4. Shen & Zhoa
5. Ina & Dungjen

I thought the result was pretty much spot on. In 1998 i think the two russain pairs were in a class of their own. B&S were far more polished and technically superior skaters that W&S (who i think were still only doing the throw double axel in their SP).

Who woul dyou have had B&S below?

Ant

 

[slutskayafan21]

They did not want to appoint Stojko in '98. If they had they could have put him first in the SP which they didn't. If Eldredge had stood up he might have taken silver.

I do think they wanted to gift Plushy in 02 but weren't given the chance (and I was actually surprised he placed so high in the SP with a fall.) Ditto B/S in '98 - though I was fine with them in '02.

Eldredge would have won silver if he skated cleanly since Candelero even beat Stojko in the long. Eldredge should have beaten Stojko in the short as well, then it would have been bronze for Stojko behind Candelero. I have no idea why his tech marks were a full .1 higher than both Kulik and Eldredge per judge in the short when his landings were scratchy on all of his jumps, it must have been because he was the World Champion. He is lucky Todd missed that second triple axel at the 97 Worlds and the 97 GP final was in Canada, it definitely improved his short program placing at the 98 Olympics.

 

[antmanb]

W&S (who i think were still only doing the throw double axel in their SP).

Ant

Replying to my own post just to possibly correct...i think in 1998 the pairs SP still had two footwork sequencees and no throw jump in it so the throw jump comment on W&S might not apply if that's the case.

In any event i still think B&S had better SBS jumps and spins and neater lifts with better ice coverage than W&S to warrant placing above them.

Ant

 

[antmanb]

Eldredge would have won silver if he skated cleanly since Candelero even beat Stojko in the long. Eldredge should have beaten Stojko in the short as well, then it would have been bronze for Stojko behind Candelero. I have no idea why his tech marks were a full .1 higher than both Kulik and Eldredge per judge in the short when his landings were scratchy on all of his jumps, it must have been because he was the World Champion. He is lucky Todd missed that second triple axel at the 97 Worlds and the 97 GP final was in Canada, it definitely improved his short program placing at the 98 Olympics.

I'd have to dig out the tapes and rewatch them but it would surprise me if Stojko had scratchy landings in the SP - he always had a soft lovely knee bend on the landnigs of his jumps with great flow out of them - i don't remember him having an off day in Nagano...i might be misremembering though.

And re the CSF in 1997 - didn't Stojko land the 4T/3T?? From memory it was a clear win for him there...i thought Urmanov also landed a 4T/3T there too.


Ant

 

[mzheng]

Help me with my memory, were two top Russian pair coached by same coach?

I just remembered in one interview she said she expected B/S won gold at 1998, but they diddn't.

 

[slutskayafan21]

VASH01, I also find it funny you said on FSuniverse you want Irina to skate her best programs ever in Turin. Yet you say here you want Michelle to win. I am a bit confused, those two statements definitely conflict each other.

 

[antmanb]

Help me with my memory, were two top Russian pair coached by same coach?

I just remembered in one interview she said she expected B/S won gold at 1998, but they diddn't.

Did moskvina teach K&D? I can't remember but i get the impression she did. To be honest K&D were pretty inconsistent skaters so if i had been a betting man I would have bet on K&D making mistakes.

I have to say that i never really liked K&D as a pair and more because of Dmetriev than anything else - i absolutely hated the way there would always be a section in their programs where Oksana was left to drift off on her own (often with her free leg up by her ear) while he showed of by himself in the middle...so much for two skating as one! Even with the surprising fall right at the end of B&S's program i'd have given them the title in 1998 over the front loaded program of K&D which i found boring in the 2nd half because all their big elements save maybe a lift had been done in the first half.

Ant

 

[antmanb]

VASH01, I also find it funny you said on FSuniverse you want Irina to skate her best programs ever in Turin. Yet you say here you want Michelle to win. I am a bit confused, those two statements definitely conflict each other.

Not if you think Michelle's skating at its best is better than Irina's skating at its best.

For the record since we've not seen Michelle at her best recently i wonder what kind of program and with how many triples a program from Michelle "at her best" would bring. Since we've not seen MIchelle at her best for some time i don't think I could make any comment as to where a Michelle's best performance would place against anyone else's best performance.

Ant

 

[curious]

Mischin must have gotten to the judges. Michael Weiss was much much better in the SP in 2002. In fact, so many of the boys were better than Plushy. But that's the way it is in the 6.0 system. No problem with Yags, it was his great competition.

Joe

You don't resent plushy for not being american do you? lol! I'm still trying to figure out who do you really like and root for ?: biggrin:

 

[mzheng]

Did moskvina teach K&D? I can't remember but i get the impression she did. To be honest K&D were pretty inconsistent skaters so if i had been a betting man I would have bet on K&D making mistakes.

I got the impression she did at the time. Because I supprised to hear she prefer one pair over the other, while both of them were coached by her.

I like K&D's pro program in show (COI). But B/S are well matched pair. Dimitri is too tall. lol

I have to say moskvina has special taste in her choosing the femal skater in pairs, all of her team's femal has wonderful posture, elegant subtle style.

 

[antmanb]

I got the impression she did at the time. Because I supprised to hear she prefer one pair over the other, while both of them were coached by her.

I like K&D's pro program in show (COI). But B/S are well matched pair. Dimitri is too tall. lol

I have to say moskvina has special taste in her choosing the femal skater in pairs, all of her team's femal has wonderful posture, elegant subtle style.

I haven't seen any of K&Ds show programs (no such luck that we'd get any pro skating on tv in te UK!).

I agree with you about Moskvina's female students - I think Julia Obertas is a fantastic skater with beautiful posture, stroking and lines.

Ant