Now that it's official, can Michelle win the OGM?

[R.D.]

It's never ending. The non-bye people are always going to say she was handed the spot, and the Kwannies are going to respond with "get over it already, she's there and there's nothing you can do."

Alissa's a great kid, but she had her 15 min. of fame and success, and now she's back to where she started. The college/skating thing isn't going to quite work out so she's going to have to choose between one and the other. If she wants to keep skating and get to the top, she may need to put college on hold. But if she's ok where she is, then that's fine too.

MK is a Dark Horse/Long Shot to win the OGM, in my opinion. In other words, it COULD happen if certain events unfold, but the odds aren't favorable for an upset.

 

[rjulie510]

I think Michelle could do it. One thing that is going for her is unlike Nagano and SLC, she is not the overwhelming co-favorite so the pressure is not on her: it's on Irina and Sasha. Hopefully that will help her.

About Alissa, I don't think she needs to change her coaches but maybe working with a technical jumping coach would help. Back in the days Michelle was with Frank Carroll and Sasha was with John Nicks (before coaching changes), I believe both went to Rafael Arutunian if they need any help with jumps. Perhaps Alissa can try something like that. Uncle Dick pointed out faulty technique will not hold up under pressured situation, which is exactly what happend to Alissa in Nationals this year. I think that's why Michelle was able to be very consistent in her career mostly: for the most part, Frank Carroll taught Michelle basics to the T.

 

[donnar0226]

IThe one who seems pressure-free at this point is Meissner. We've heard next to nothing about her since Nationals. Will Meissner be the teenager who sneaks in to take it all this year?

The difference though is that Tara was already a World Champion before the Olympics, and Sarah was a bronze medalist at the previous worlds with a couple years of grand prix results far ahead of Sarah's--so unless she is able to do non cheated triple-triples, a non cheated3X and hope for about 5 other's to all screw up--I'd say VERY long shot!

 

[Misplaced Gymnast]

The difference though is that Tara was already a World Champion before the Olympics, and Sarah was a bronze medalist at the previous worlds with a couple years of grand prix results far ahead of Sarah's--so unless she is able to do non cheated triple-triples, a non cheated3X and hope for about 5 other's to all screw up--I'd say VERY long shot!

Hey, I can dream, can't I?

Just thinking maybe it won't be Cohen, Slutskaya OR Kwan atop the podium -- trying to think of who'd be the one to sneak in there.

 

[Vash01]

With regards to Canada taking sides with regards to the judging panel after what happened in Salt Lake, I think that you will have to count them out taking sides and being bias. They will not want a repeat of that fiasco that happened in the pairs competition. With regards to countries, I don't think Canada has any favourites.

Canada took sides in SLC, particularly in the SP (LP was too close). They were one of two judges that placed S&P higher than B&S. That was never questioned. It would not have changed the final results but it just showed that Canadian judges would place Canadians higher no matter what. Actually this was not the only time it happened, and usually people don't question it if a judge places his/her skater higher in a close matchup. If there is no strong Canadian skater(s) in that discipline, they are likely to side with the USA and GBR (it's the western bloc).

Vash

 

[Vash01]

The best finish for Michelle in Italy could be as good as in Salt Lake City. Besides Irina and Sasha, from what we saw last fall from GPs, it's impossible for anyone else to run a relatively clean programs.

I don't understand this prediction at all. Why is it IMPOSSIBLE for anyone else (other than Irina and Sasha) to skate clean programs? It can happen to anybody anytime. Irina and Sasha may not skate clean after all. It is hard to predict how everyone (or the top ones) will skate.

Vash

 

[Vash01]

If you think Kimmie's win as 'possible', then there is no reason to think Miki's win as 'impossible'.....after all Miki had more senior competetion experience than Kimmie. And her skating is more mature than Kimmie....I think Miki will redeem herself at OOOO.....her poor showing last worlds and earlier on this season could be the pressure of coming into these competetion under the pressure of reigning Japanese Champ at 2005, subconsiously she felt she need to do better than any other Japanese ladies in the competion to prove herself. Now with this pressure off her shoulder, she has nothing to prove and she is the youngst in Japanese team, she just need to skate all out.

I am not saying Miki's win is impossible, because anything can happen. However, right now I am looking at who is mentally tough. All these ladies have the talent and some do more difficult jumps than others. The mentally tough ones win medals. The OGM in particular requires very strong minds (or less pressure, as Sarah and Tara did compared to the favorites). So far I have not seen Miki being mentally tough. I have seen Kimmie being mentally tough, even though she did not do well in the GP series. She can do 3-3 combinations (Miki does them too, but they were downgraded to 3-2 during the GP), and she is capable of landing a triple axel. Whether she will do it at the Olympics or not is hard to tell. What is likely to hurt Kimmie's chances is lack of world championship experience/exposure, which Miki has, but Miki has not delivered a single strong LP performance yet. Will she do it at the Olympics? Anything is possible, but the probability is different for each skater. The Japanese ladies have great talent and a deep field but I have not seen any of them really handling the pressure even at the GP's. Shizuka was getting there, but now she has changed her LP so I don't know what to expect. I would throw in Joannie Rochette's name for a medal if at least 4-5 top ladies make major mistakes. I see it as a low probability event.

The reason I feel Michelle can win is that she can handle pressure. Irina has handled it since her return from illness. In 2002 she did not. Sasha has looked very focused this year and she may be at a point where she can handle it. It will all come down to who can skate great under pressure. Carolina could feel the support of the hometown crowd and she could pull it off too. One thing is certain- a tentative or cautious skate is not likely to win the OGM.

Vash

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

MK is a Dark Horse/Long Shot to win the OGM, in my opinion. In other words, it COULD happen if certain events unfold, but the odds aren't favorable for an upset.

RD. You are the epitome of a predictor who plays it safe with maybe, and one wonders who it is that you predict will win without a maybe attached. Do you have the power of conviction?

Joe

 

[attyfan]

Well with all due respect to both competitors, Irina at least competed quite a bit in the past two years and has only lost once- to an upstart who won't even be at the Games. It can also be argued that her case to go is stronger than MK's, since MK WAS on top but hasn't really shown herself much lately.

Red Dog, you are off by a year (I put the year in bold, just to avoid this). Irina didn't get her bye this year, after she competed during the past two years -- getting the spot on the Oly team by medaling at Euros is as much "earning it" as getting the spot by medaling at Russian Nats.

However, when Russia sent Irina to Worlds in '04 in Dormund, Irina had not competed that season because she was sick, so she had only a test skate that established she was likely to do better at Worlds than any of her healthy competitors. She proved them right.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I hope not, since MK was only 11 years old in 1992.

You know what I meant. Did you intend to avoid it? If I change it to a more realistic date would you still answer it?

Joe

 

[FreeKatie]

Regarding Alissa - as soon as I heard she was seeing a sports pyschologist I figured there were confidence problems. Maybe that has more to due with her downfall than lack of technique, although that probably doesn't help her.

I think MK definitely has a chance to medal, and possibly even the gold medal. It is an outside chance, but then it was an outside chance for a lot of medal winners in the past.. (Alexei Urnamov, Sarah Hughes, Paul Wylie). Anything can happen, sometimes the favorites make mistakes in the short and cannot recover (Browning, Boitano in 94) and sometimes people can pull themselves up to win (Sandhu, Kwan in Nice). Ya never know, we will just have to wait and see how things pan out.

 

[jenaj]

I will bet you 100$ if you want that many of her spins and footwork will be graded level 2s in Turin. So what if U.S officials tell the press they are level 3. They have good reason to promote her chances.

Her footwork? I don't think so. Michelle's footwork is the best.

 

[jenaj]

Totentanz ... same as Spartacus?
Spartacus ... same as The Feeling Begins?

Open your eyes ...

Or maybe your eyes are open, but you just have something else in mind, other than what is right in front of you.

And with COP, all skaters' programs look the same, to different music!

 

[Mathman]

Totentanz ... same as Spartacus?
Spartacus ... same as The Feeling Begins?

And with COP, all skaters' programs look the same, to different music!

I have noticed for some time, both under CoP and 6.0 judging, that the ladies' short programs have more variety and interest than the long programs. In Michelle's body of work I would stack her short programs, each an exquisite gem, against her more heralded long programs any time.

I think there are two resons for this. First, the long program is .. well ... long. By the time you work in 7 jumping passes, 4 required spins, an extended spiral sequence with the requisite number of positions, and a footwork section, you don't have any energy left to do anything much by way of interpretation and choreography.

Paradoxically, in the short program, with everyone required to do pretty much exactly the same thing, the skaters seem to work harder at bringing something distinctive to their performances. Like Stephanie Rosenthal's short at U.S. Nationals.

MM

 

[R.D.]

RD. You are the epitome of a predictor who plays it safe with maybe, and one wonders who it is that you predict will win without a maybe attached. Do you have the power of conviction?

Joe

In that case, who does? I'm not even going to get into this thing of predicting. Instead I try to figure out the CHANCES of each person winning.

 

[R.D.]

Red Dog, you are off by a year (I put the year in bold, just to avoid this). Irina didn't get her bye this year, after she competed during the past two years -- getting the spot on the Oly team by medaling at Euros is as much "earning it" as getting the spot by medaling at Russian Nats.

However, when Russia sent Irina to Worlds in '04 in Dormund, Irina had not competed that season because she was sick, so she had only a test skate that established she was likely to do better at Worlds than any of her healthy competitors. She proved them right.

Oh. My mistake then. Thanks for clarifying. I wasn't aware that Euros also counted as a "qualifying round."

 

[curious]

Of course not. I don't think Kwan will win the Olys and there are 28 other skaters I do not think will win the Olys. I think Slutskaya will win the Olys.:indiff:
But that's not going to change my favorite anymoe than Sarah did.

Joe

yes, just having fun with michell's fans right?

 

[curious]

In response to the original question, YES, Michelle could win. We all know the reasons why. Irina, Sasha, and/or someone else could win too, and we all know the reasons why. And they could all fail to win gold, and we all know the reasons why. It was looking incredibly bleak for MK for a while, but the rumors of her "worse than revealed injury" proved false, she won the spot on the team fairly and convincingly, and I think she impressed the committee. They didn't have to say they thought she could win the Olympics. This was announced as a unanimous decision - they didn't have to say that to get her a spot on the team. They could have said that she could get a medal, and could have said that she was one of the best 3 in the US. Now you could argue that this was PR - but I don't think so - because it's risky if she looks very inferior when she gets there, and because of the look on Horen's face when he said it - almost like "I wouldn't have believed it either but it's true - by gosh she could win based on what we saw." I think MK is much farther along than her critics think. And as for the 3/3 well we all know she can do them, neither she nor anyone else has to do them in umpteen competitions - she only has to do it once - at the right time. And I think she just might go for broke and try. With all the pressure of this skate test, I have a feeling she go into the Olympics calm and confident.

and maybe the rumours of her injury "being worse than people thought" were exagerrated by her camp to get her out of nats cause she was in no shape to compete and would have probably finish off the podium just a thought?

 

[mzheng]

About Alissa, I don't think she needs to change her coaches but maybe working with a technical jumping coach would help. Back in the days Michelle was with Frank Carroll and Sasha was with John Nicks (before coaching changes), I believe both went to Rafael Arutunian if they need any help with jumps. .

Yeah, Sasha's flip is RA's flip.

 

[mzheng]

I am not saying Miki's win is impossible, because anything can happen. However, right now I am looking at who is mentally tough. All these ladies have the talent and some do more difficult jumps than others. The mentally tough ones win medals. The OGM in particular requires very strong minds (or less pressure, as Sarah and Tara did compared to the favorites). So far I have not seen Miki being mentally tough. I have seen Kimmie being mentally tough, even though she did not do well in the GP series. She can do 3-3 combinations (Miki does them too, but they were downgraded to 3-2 during the GP), and she is capable of landing a triple axel. Whether she will do it at the Olympics or not is hard to tell. What is likely to hurt Kimmie's chances is lack of world championship experience/exposure, which Miki has, but Miki has not delivered a single strong LP performance yet. Will she do it at the Olympics? Anything is possible, but the probability is different for each skater. The Japanese ladies have great talent and a deep field but I have not seen any of them really handling the pressure even at the GP's. Shizuka was getting there, but now she has changed her LP so I don't know what to expect. I would throw in Joannie Rochette's name for a medal if at least 4-5 top ladies make major mistakes. I see it as a low probability event.

OK. I agree this mental toughness wins the night when the skaters have the similar level of tricks. But I just don't see Kimmie's PCS (presentation skill) scores will be at Miki's level in International judges eye. And also in my eye. Miki has improved so much this season presetation wise, almost like a different skater. And again she's no Japanese Nationals champion any more, and the younerst in Japanese team, there you have two monkeis off her shoulder already.

And I agree you with Canadian judges, they are one of those judges group tend to hold up their own skaters bluntly.